637
FXUS65 KABQ 282345 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide today through
  Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings widespread and
  long duration showers and thunderstorms.

- River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying
  farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers
  may experience minor flooding.

- Gusty winds upwards of 25 to 45 mph mainly over southeast New
  Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night will threaten downed trees in
  saturated soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile
  vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

There has been little change to the overall message regarding heavy
rain, storms, flooding, and wind over the next 48-hours.

The upper level storm system over the Great Basin is moving east
into the southwest CONUS today while Hurricane Polo makes landfall
along the central Baja coast. The upper level low will absorb the
remnants of Polo and merge these two systems over NM thru Tuesday
night. A swath of rain over western NM early today will move east
this afternoon while storms develop in better instability within
southern NM. All of this activity will grow into a large mass of
rain with embedded storms and move slowly north and east across
the entire region by sunrise Tuesday. Widespread rainfall amounts
of 0.50 to 1.0" are expected with localized amounts >2" along the
Cont Divide and central mt chain. A second batch of widespread
rain and storms will form as the upper low moves closer to western
NM Tuesday afternoon and the actual remnant wave from Polo moves
northeast across NM. Another widespread 1 to 2" will fall with
locally >3" thru Tuesday night. Convective elements will produce
rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, especially within southeast NM
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This rain is falling on top of already
saturated soils from last week. There is a 55% of flash flooding
within 25km of any point along and east of the central mt chain
Tuesday. Tributaries into mainstem rivers, and even some larger
drainages like the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Jemez River will see
rises thru Tuesday afternoon. River Forecast Center guidance will
likely include at least a few points in `Minor` flood.

Another aspect of this system will be stronger winds. Confidence
is still only low to moderate on where and when the period of
strongest winds will occur Tuesday. Several models have been
consistent with the core of the mid level remnant circulation
moving northeast from northern Chihuahua across central NM with
700mb winds between 40 and 50kt. MOS and ensemble model wind
fields indicate the period from late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night with south to southeast wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
along with the heavy rain. The location of these winds will
entirely depend on where the mid level circulation crosses and how
it interacts with the upstream jet max and the higher terrain. A
Wind Advisory may be needed for a couple zones in southeast NM but
another round of guidance will be reviewed before elevating this
concern. Gusty winds will make it easier to topple trees in
saturated soils so power outages may occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Wednesday, guidance appears to be coming into better agreement
with a large dry slot moving east within the base of the larger
upper level low circulation. A large band of wrap around precip is
shown pivoting slowly east across northern NM. Additional precip
may push 1", especially on northern and western-facing slopes.
River flooding may peak Wednesday or Thursday in the wake of the
exiting storm system.

Folks are strongly advised to stay away from rivers and arroyos
as banks can give way several feet away from fast-flowing water.
Large areas of standing water may form in low-lying areas and
low-water crossings may be inundated with high water and deep
mud.

The rest of the forecast period from Thursday to Friday is likely to
feature decreasing humidity and warming temps as a ridge attempts to
build over the region. Areas of fog may occur for several nights in
the wake of this system given saturated soils.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Conditions are deteriorating from west to east as a large area of
rain and isolated storms moves slowly east toward the RGV late
this afternoon. There are >80% probabilities that cigs will fall
to MVFR from west to east toward the RGV thru midnight then into
eastern NM overnight. Local IFR cigs/vsbys will occur with the
heavier rainfall then a period of more widespread IFR may occur
around Tuesday morning. The timing of storm clusters and the
larger areas of rain will be challenging so numerous updates are
likely to terminal forecasts the next 12 to 24 hours. Widespread
rain with isolated storms is expected to persist over much of the
region thru Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast
period. Widespread showers and thunderstorms with periods of rain
will impact the region thru Wednesday. Total precip amounts will
average 2 to 3" with locally >5" possible. Saturated soils across
the region will elevate the risk for flooding even outside of burn
scars. Drier weather will return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  64  51  61 /  90  60  90  80
Dulce...........................  46  60  44  57 / 100  70  90  90
Cuba............................  49  58  44  56 / 100  90  90  80
Gallup..........................  48  59  43  58 / 100 100  90  80
El Morro........................  47  57  41  54 / 100 100  90  90
Grants..........................  51  58  44  58 / 100 100 100  70
Quemado.........................  52  59  43  55 / 100 100  90  80
Magdalena.......................  55  59  47  59 / 100 100  90  60
Datil...........................  52  57  43  55 / 100 100  80  60
Reserve.........................  54  62  47  60 / 100 100  90  70
Glenwood........................  58  66  51  64 / 100 100  90  80
Chama...........................  45  56  42  52 / 100  80  90  90
Los Alamos......................  52  58  47  55 / 100  90 100  90
Pecos...........................  52  60  47  58 / 100 100 100  80
Cerro/Questa....................  48  58  44  55 / 100  90 100  90
Red River.......................  43  53  38  50 / 100 100 100  90
Angel Fire......................  44  56  38  52 / 100 100 100  90
Taos............................  49  60  45  57 / 100  90 100  90
Mora............................  50  59  46  57 / 100 100 100  80
Espanola........................  55  63  50  62 / 100  90 100  90
Santa Fe........................  53  59  48  56 / 100  90 100  80
Santa Fe Airport................  54  61  49  59 / 100  90 100  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  62  50  61 / 100 100 100  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  64  52  63 / 100 100 100  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  65  53  64 / 100 100 100  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  64  52  63 / 100 100 100  70
Belen...........................  59  65  53  65 / 100 100  90  70
Bernalillo......................  58  64  52  63 / 100 100 100  70
Bosque Farms....................  58  65  52  65 / 100 100 100  70
Corrales........................  58  64  52  64 / 100 100 100  70
Los Lunas.......................  59  64  53  65 / 100 100 100  70
Placitas........................  56  62  50  61 / 100 100 100  70
Rio Rancho......................  58  62  51  62 / 100 100 100  70
Socorro.........................  60  65  53  67 / 100 100  90  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  57  46  55 / 100 100 100  70
Tijeras.........................  55  61  48  59 / 100 100 100  70
Edgewood........................  54  61  48  60 / 100 100 100  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  62  48  62 / 100 100 100  60
Clines Corners..................  53  61  47  59 / 100 100 100  50
Mountainair.....................  54  61  47  60 / 100 100 100  70
Gran Quivira....................  55  61  49  60 / 100 100 100  60
Carrizozo.......................  59  67  53  63 /  90 100 100  50
Ruidoso.........................  56  64  49  59 /  90 100 100  50
Capulin.........................  53  63  49  59 /  80 100 100  80
Raton...........................  54  65  50  61 / 100  90 100  80
Springer........................  56  67  52  63 /  90  90 100  80
Las Vegas.......................  53  62  49  59 / 100 100 100  70
Clayton.........................  58  69  57  68 /  50 100 100  70
Roy.............................  56  66  53  64 /  80 100 100  70
Conchas.........................  62  72  59  73 /  80 100 100  50
Santa Rosa......................  60  70  57  69 /  90 100 100  50
Tucumcari.......................  64  75  60  75 /  70 100 100  50
Clovis..........................  62  74  59  75 /  60 100  90  40
Portales........................  64  76  60  76 /  60  90  90  40
Fort Sumner.....................  63  75  60  74 /  80 100 100  40
Roswell.........................  64  78  61  77 /  60  90  90  20
Picacho.........................  61  71  55  71 /  80 100  90  10
Elk.............................  59  69  52  68 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214-
216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ212-215-222-223-
227>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42