196
FXUS65 KABQ 231731 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1031 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Minor impacts are expected through the day and into the early
  evening as the next round of winter weather brings valley rain
  and mountain snow to much of northern and central New Mexico.
  Three to eight inches of accumulating snow will be common above
  8,500 feet.

- Those with travel plans for the late weekend and early week
  after Thanksgiving will want to stay updated with the latest
  weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel
  routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a potent
  storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert
  Southwest, including New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 109 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Pacific low pressure system is moving northeastward into AZ and will
cross the NM-CO border later this afternoon with central 500 mb
geopotential heights of around 561 decameters. Precipitation has
expanded over south central to southeastern AZ with some embedded
convection, and areas of rain and high mountain snow will continue
to work into NM through the morning. The diffluent flow aloft
preceding the low will be the dominant generator for the more
widespread and largely stratiform  precipitation, and by this
afternoon the thermal trough aloft and upper low will be moving over
NM, providing sufficient instability for convective showers and a
few thunderstorms on a spottier basis. The low will have filled in 3
to 5 decameters by this afternoon, so vertical stretching will not
be as strong, leaving diurnal and transient instability to be as
much of a player for regenerating additional rounds of
precipitation. Overall the QPF story has not evolved or reduced too
much from the past few days of earlier model runs with generally 0.1
to 0.3 inches of liquid equivalent being common with higher swaths
closer to 0.5 inch in the eastern plains and on the mountains where
localized modest orographic enhancements will occur. As for snow,
the northern mountains remain in a Winter Weather Advisory where
there is high confidence for a few (3 to 8) inches of accumulation
(isolated higher amounts above 11 kft). Some areas between 7,000 to
8,000 ft may briefly see snow mixing in with rain, including
portions of Interstate travel corridors (Continental Divide, Sedillo
Hill, Clines Corners, and Las Vegas to Raton), but no appreciable
accumulation is foreseen in these areas. Daytime temperatures
will run a couple to a few degrees below normal today.

Precipitation rates will drop in intensity after sunset with the
upper low working into eastern CO with weaker vort lobes wrapping
into northwestern and north central NM where lighter showers
consisting of mainly flurries and sprinkles will continue. One
challenge tonight through Monday morning will be pinpointing likely
areas for fog and freezing fog development. Dewpoints in the mid
30`s for many areas will limit, but not eliminate, the presence of
freezing fog, and another consideration will be the surface winds.
Winds will be turning west or west northwest through Monday morning
with some breezy speeds setting up over highland areas which would
limit fog development to the lee areas where downsloping processes
would warm temperatures slightly. In contrast, west slopes of the
Divide will be better candidates for fog, or at least low stratus,
development.

Precipitation would be expected to fully abate by dawn Monday with
lingering low-based cumulus and stratocumulus into the afternoon,
especially in northwestern to west central NM. Northwest flow on the
backside of the departing low will turn breezy, mainly over the
central to south central highlands and adjacent plains. The
downsloping winds will boost temperatures a few degrees above normal
in eastern zones while western areas make more modest gains and
struggle to reach normalcy Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 109 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A shortwave trough will race across the northern Rockies into the
northern Great Plains on Tuesday. While this feature is modeled to
be fairly vigorous, it seems as though latest guidance has leaned
back slightly on the strength. Still, this will increase the
gradient aloft with west northwest winds persisting over NM, and the
shortwave will send down an accompanying surface front which will
enter our northeastern zones by midday Tuesday. Small perturbations
in the west northwest flow aloft look to generate very light showers
over CO, but are not projected to dip farther south into NM. Daytime
temperatures will start to cool in northern zones with the frontal
passage on Tuesday with the east central plains seeing additional
reductions into Wednesday. Otherwise, Wednesday will be defined by
dry and mostly tranquil conditions.

A gentle ridge will then build over NM on Thursday, keeping the
tranquility going for the Thanksgiving holiday while temperatures
rebound above normal by 5 to 10 degrees in most locations. Dry and
warmer than normal conditions will continue into Friday, but the
zonal flow over NM will start to increase while becoming
increasingly perturbed to our north and upstream. Breezy conditions
for much of northern and central NM would be a likely outcome in
this regime Friday with the central highlands gusting the most.

The weekend after Thanksgiving continues to be a time frame of big
interest, and potentially the early part of next week too, as a jet
streak is modeled to rapidly intensify parallel to the British
Columbia coast before sending a deep longwave trough into the
western ConUS. After stellar agreement among medium range model
solutions 24 hours ago, discrepancies have started to percolate. The
deterministic GFS is considerably deeper, yet advertising a farther
north track than 24 hours ago and also in comparison to the latest
ECMWF. Respective ensemble means also lean these directions, but
ensemble member clusters are telling a fairly divisive and somewhat
ambiguous story. For now, confidence in impactful precipitation for
NM on Sunday (Nov 30) is low with relatively higher confidence in
impacts on Mon (Dec 1).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR/IFR conditions continues to evolve across NM
as a winter system crosses the state. The main convective line
has progressed through eastern NM and is crossing the state line
into TX this hour. Localized IFR conditions from heavy rain are no
longer expected over eastern NM, however, MVFR conditions and fuel
alternates may still persist for a few terminals for the next few
hours as remnant showers and low ceilings persist. Steadily
clearing conditions are expected along and east of the central
mountain chain through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Moderate to heavy snow with IFR conditions over the northern
mountains will persist thru the afternoon before slowly improving
tonight. Central and western NM will see scattered valley rain and
mountain snow showers becoming more orographically driven along
west facing slopes thru the afternoon. Overall improvements are
also expected there with TEMPO interruptions from passing showers
this afternoon. The exception will be where low clouds and fog
anchors mainly to west facing slopes across western and northern
NM tonight into Monday morning. These areas, which KGUP was
included among them, will be the last to crawl back into
persistent VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 109 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Wetting rain and mountain snow will keep fire weather concerns at
bay today. Fuels in many areas are expected to receive a beneficial
0.1 to 0.3" of rain with portions of the eastern plains faring
better between 0.25 and 0.5" while the mountains accumulate a few
inches of heavy, wet snow. Precipitation will depart NM late tonight
into Monday morning with breezy conditions developing through the
afternoon Monday, mainly in the central highlands and nearby plains
(Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca counties). Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will
be common in these areas, but afternoon humidity will remain
relatively elevated (35 to 50%). Good to excellent humidity
recoveries are also forecast each night this week, which will limit
fire weather concerns despite additional precipitation bypassing the
state. Breezes will offer some better smoke ventilation/dispersion
in central highland areas Monday, and to a lesser extent on Tuesday,
but remaining areas of northern and central NM will endure poor
ventilation rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  34  52  28 /  80  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  26  48  20 /  90  40   0   0
Cuba............................  47  31  47  22 /  80  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  26  52  20 /  50  10   0   0
El Morro........................  45  32  48  25 /  50  30   0   0
Grants..........................  48  28  54  22 /  60  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  31  50  25 /  50  20   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  34  55  31 /  50  10   0   0
Datil...........................  46  31  50  27 /  40  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  24  60  22 /  60  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  25  64  23 /  60  10   0   0
Chama...........................  43  23  44  16 / 100  50   0   0
Los Alamos......................  45  31  48  28 /  90  30   0   0
Pecos...........................  47  30  51  28 /  90  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  28  46  22 /  90  30   0   0
Red River.......................  38  23  39  17 /  90  40   0   0
Angel Fire......................  43  18  45  12 /  90  30   0   0
Taos............................  46  26  49  20 /  90  30   0   0
Mora............................  47  26  52  24 /  90  20   0   0
Espanola........................  51  29  54  23 /  90  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  47  33  49  30 /  90  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  31  51  26 /  90  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  39  55  35 /  80  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  35  57  31 /  80  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  30  60  26 /  80   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  35  57  32 /  80  10   0   0
Belen...........................  58  26  59  22 /  80   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  35  58  29 /  80  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  24  58  20 /  80   5   0   0
Corrales........................  56  34  58  29 /  80   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  26  58  21 /  80   5   0   0
Placitas........................  51  36  53  32 /  90  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  35  57  30 /  80  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  61  35  63  33 /  60   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  33  49  29 /  90  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  48  33  50  30 /  90  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  51  31  52  27 /  90  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  27  53  23 /  90  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  30  50  28 /  80  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  51  31  53  28 /  80  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  51  31  53  28 /  80  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  34  55  33 /  70   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  32  52  33 /  60   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  45  27  51  25 /  90   5   0   0
Raton...........................  46  25  57  23 /  90  10   0   0
Springer........................  50  24  58  21 /  90  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  28  55  25 /  90  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  36  58  33 /  90   0   0   0
Roy.............................  48  29  58  27 /  90   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  56  33  63  28 /  90   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  36  60  32 /  90   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  35  65  29 /  90   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  38  64  34 /  90   0   0   0
Portales........................  61  39  65  33 /  90   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  36  65  33 /  80   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  65  38  67  35 /  70   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  34  64  37 /  50   0   0   0
Elk.............................  60  29  63  31 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for NMZ210-
211-213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24