Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
778 FXUS65 KABQ 011845 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1245 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will are expected each of the next several afternoons and evenings around central and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding may occur with any storm. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding this afternoon and evening, trending slightly lower mid-week. - Storm chances may begin to trend up again late week into the weekend, increasing the risk of flash flooding and strong to severe storms (Moderate confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Ridging continues to amplify over The Great Basin today, but the max H5 heights are actually trending down as the overall ridge weakens. Satellite shows that sub-tropical moisture is already being drawn northward into Mexico and southern AZ, with relatively near average moisture levels over most of New Mexico. Overnight/early morning storms associated with a weak shortwave have since dissipated, but will remain a source of weak lift as it moves southward along the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening. The off-scar flash flood concern with storms along the central mountain chain today is relatively low given the modest instability and fast enough storm motion. In western NM, closer to the center of the ridge, storm motion will be more slow and erratic so localized totals of 1- 2" are possible out there. Most hi-res models are showing storms dissipating before reaching the Ruidoso area late afternoon, but if they hold together it could be a close call for flooding over the burn scars. The center of the H5 ridge shifts further northwest into Utah tomorrow afternoon, with north to south steering flow remaining over New Mexico. A longwave trough over the central plains will create some easterly low-level flow in eastern NM, but the airmass advected in will actually be drier than the current one so it`s not expected to create an uptick in storm chances. That being said, the right entrance region of a NW/SE oriented jet streak embedded within this aformentioned longwave trough will provide some lift in northeastern NM where the greatest coverage of storms will be on Tuesday afternoon. Slight drying across the west will decrease storm chances out there Tuesday, but at least isolated storms are likely once again over the high terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to be the driest days of the week, with isolated to scattered storms over the northern mountains and only a stray shower or storm elsewhere. This is great news for the Ruidoso area, but there is still enough moisture to create a few showers/storms in the area and if storms to develop, they will likely be right over the burn scars given the flow pattern. The NAM is trying to re-develop the High circulation over south- central NM on Thursday. This will be something to watch because it could help to draw a bit of moisture in from the southwest and bump up rain chances a tad for the afternoon hours. By Friday, models are in agreement that PWATs will begin trending higher from the southwest as sub-tropical moisture is advected northward from the eastern Pacific. The magnitude of this moisture surge remains a key question since it will likely be dependent on the evolution of the cluster of storms currently off the coast of Mexico that is progged to develop into a tropical system at some point in the next couple of days. Precipitation amounts during the Friday through Sunday period have trended higher for all of central and northern New Mexico during the past 24hrs due to increasing agreement on the path of this potential tropical system and its interaction with an upper- level trough off the west coast of the US. The deterministic GFS is quite bullish on a substantial uptick in precipitation across the state as a result, but this should be taken with a grain of salt since the majority of GEFS members are not as confident in that particular solution coming to fruition. Regardless of the magnitude of this surge, temperatures will be on the downtrend over the weekend, indicating that there will likely be extensive cloud cover that could act to decrease instability and therefore rainfall rates. A broad area of soaking rainfall with embedded heavier rainfall seems like the most likely scenario right now, but that could change as models get a better hold on the potential tropical system. After Sunday, there is strong agreement in drier weather across the Land of Enchantment, but the extent in the downtrend of convection will come down whether the trough off the west coast penetrates inland. Cluster analysis paints several potential solutions so the forecast beyond Sunday remains low confidence this far out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and storms will develop over the high terrain around 19Z, drifting south off the high terrain through the afternoon into the evening. Gusty outflow wind gusts to 35KT and small hail will be the main aviation concerns. A few showers may linger past 03Z around the central mountain chain, with dry conditions overnight. Outside of brief vis reductions in stronger storms, VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. Isolated to scattered storms today through Thursday will generally favor the high terrain of northern and southwestern New Mexico, with gusty outflow winds and small hail the main concerns. Wetting rainfall will generally be confined to the high terrain, but localized amounts up to 2" cannot be ruled out with stronger storms that develop. Temperatures will gradually rise over the next few days, resulting in slighter lower afternoon humidities in most areas. However, this trend will be reversed late week. Storm coverage will likely trend up Friday into the weekend as sub- tropical moisture is advected in from the south. The magnitude of this monsoonal surge remains uncertain, but models have continued to trend wetter during this period. Given the lower temperatures and increased cloud coverage, a widespread soaking rainfall looks more likely than localized intense rainfall, but trends will be monitored in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 88 61 89 / 0 5 0 5 Dulce........................... 44 85 46 86 / 20 30 10 20 Cuba............................ 52 82 53 83 / 10 30 10 20 Gallup.......................... 53 84 53 84 / 5 20 10 30 El Morro........................ 53 80 53 80 / 10 30 20 50 Grants.......................... 53 84 53 84 / 10 30 10 50 Quemado......................... 53 81 53 81 / 20 20 10 50 Magdalena....................... 57 81 58 82 / 10 10 5 30 Datil........................... 52 78 52 79 / 10 20 5 50 Reserve......................... 53 86 52 87 / 20 30 10 40 Glenwood........................ 57 88 56 90 / 20 30 5 30 Chama........................... 46 78 46 79 / 20 60 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 56 78 56 80 / 10 50 20 30 Pecos........................... 51 78 52 82 / 20 40 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 79 50 80 / 10 60 30 20 Red River....................... 41 69 42 70 / 10 60 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 34 73 36 74 / 20 60 20 20 Taos............................ 47 81 48 83 / 10 50 20 20 Mora............................ 46 75 47 78 / 20 60 30 30 Espanola........................ 54 86 56 88 / 10 40 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 56 80 57 82 / 10 30 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 84 56 85 / 10 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 87 65 88 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 88 63 90 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 91 62 92 / 10 10 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 10 Belen........................... 59 90 59 91 / 10 5 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 60 90 61 91 / 10 20 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 58 89 59 91 / 10 10 5 10 Corrales........................ 61 91 62 92 / 10 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 59 89 60 91 / 10 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 59 86 61 87 / 10 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 61 89 62 90 / 10 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 63 91 63 92 / 10 5 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 81 56 83 / 10 20 10 20 Tijeras......................... 56 82 58 84 / 10 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 51 83 53 85 / 10 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 84 51 86 / 10 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 53 78 54 80 / 20 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 52 82 54 84 / 10 10 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 54 81 55 83 / 10 10 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 60 85 / 10 10 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 54 75 53 77 / 5 20 0 20 Capulin......................... 47 77 50 79 / 0 20 20 10 Raton........................... 48 80 48 83 / 5 30 20 10 Springer........................ 49 82 50 85 / 10 30 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 49 78 51 82 / 20 40 30 20 Clayton......................... 55 83 57 88 / 5 5 5 5 Roy............................. 52 80 53 85 / 20 20 20 10 Conchas......................... 58 86 59 90 / 20 10 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 56 84 57 88 / 20 5 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 56 83 56 89 / 10 0 10 0 Clovis.......................... 61 88 61 92 / 10 0 5 0 Portales........................ 61 89 60 92 / 10 0 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 60 88 60 91 / 10 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 63 91 61 94 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 85 56 89 / 0 10 0 10 Elk............................. 54 82 53 85 / 0 10 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16