Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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972 FXUS65 KABQ 031130 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 430 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 416 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 - Many rivers across northwestern and north central New Mexico will remain near or above bankfull through Wednesday. - Drier conditions arrive today and persist through the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 428 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Winds have finally picked up across Union County over the last few hours, and latest models guidance has them lasting a bit longer. Have extended the Wind Advisory through 15Z/8am MST. New NPW already out. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1223 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Winds on the backside of the low across northeast NM will remain elevated overnight into the early morning hours. A few gusts near 50 mph are not out of the question, and the Wind Advisory for Union County remains in effect. Elsewhere, much quieter conditions are on tap. A few areas of fog or freezing fog will develop by sunrise, particularly across the northwest highlands and portion of west central NM. Localized reductions in visibility may impact travel conditions. Freezing fog near bridges or overpasses may create slick spots. Temperatures will warm up several degrees across western NM today thanks to less cloud cover, no precipitation, and a weak ridge passing overhead. There will be a batch of high clouds that pass over NM this afternoon, however. Otherwise, once the winds across northeast NM diminish by late morning, a quiet weather day is on tap. A weak upper level low will pass eastward over Colorado/New Mexico border Wednesday afternoon and night. An associated "cold front" will slide from west to east across NM, but despite the front, temperatures will continue to rise, and should be within a few degrees of normal areawide. The system should bring light rain and snow showers to the northern mountains, but little to no accumulation. However, the backdoor segment of the cold front will slide southward across the eastern plains Wednesday night. Upslope flow onto Raton Ridge should bring additional rain and snow showers to northeast NM with liquid amounts generally less than 0.20 inches. Gusts near 25 or 30 mph will also be felt behind the backdoor front. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1223 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 More quiet weather on tap for Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler, and winds behind the aforementioned backdoor front will be slow to wane Thursday morning, but light winds are expected in the afternoon. Uncertainty in the forecast creeps back in starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. Models suggest a very positively tilted upper trough, or weakly closed low, will slide southeastward across NM, but the specifics on strength and placement are uncertain. And, the GFS/GEFS suggest some energy will retrograde as a low back to the Pacific. Attm, any solution doesn`t bring much precipitation to NM Friday through the weekend, so a quiet forecast is maintained, with PoPs<20%, temperatures at or below normal, light winds and passing high clouds. Models diverge significantly more starting Monday given the uncertainty in the low placement. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Gusty north winds will persist across far northeast NM through the morning hours. Strongest gusts, up to 45kt, expected through 15Z. Low clouds and patchy fog have developed across the Northwest Highlands, around Mt Taylor and over the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. May see a few additional areas of fog or low clouds develop through 14Z, but they should be diminishing thereafter with VFR prevailing. High clouds will move into western and central NM through the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next week. Breezy north to northwest winds will continue this morning across northeast NM with gusts up to 50 mph, but light winds are expected elsewhere. This will result in poor ventilation from the Central Mountain Chain westward. Ventilation improves on Wednesday as winds increase slightly as a upper low shifts eastward along the NM/CO border and an associated front crosses the state. However, poor ventilation returns on Thursday for areas along and west of the Central Mtn Chain. Forecast uncertainty increases Friday through the weekend, but overall it looks to remain quiet with poor ventilation remaining a concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 36 61 34 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 57 24 59 24 / 0 0 10 5 Cuba............................ 53 32 57 29 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 59 29 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 58 30 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 32 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 30 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 31 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 31 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 70 33 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 51 26 53 24 / 0 0 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 54 34 57 33 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 56 30 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 32 55 29 / 0 0 10 10 Red River....................... 45 23 48 22 / 0 0 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 50 14 54 21 / 0 0 5 10 Taos............................ 54 24 57 24 / 0 0 10 5 Mora............................ 55 27 61 28 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 61 32 64 31 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 55 34 57 34 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 32 59 31 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 40 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 62 33 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 36 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 32 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 34 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 36 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 57 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 27 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 58 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 49 30 58 31 / 5 0 5 40 Raton........................... 56 29 61 31 / 0 0 5 20 Springer........................ 57 28 64 30 / 0 0 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 55 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 55 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 56 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 40 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 62 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 43 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 63 41 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 63 40 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 63 36 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ230. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34