749
FXUS65 KABQ 312332 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

- The threat of flash flooding over burn scars today is subsiding
  this afternoon as storms moving east off the burn scars and over
  adjacent highlands.

- A few dry storms with little to no rainfall and erratic
  downburst winds will develop tomorrow over the Continental
  Divide and Rio Grande Valley. These storms have the potential to
  start new fires.

- Two Pacific storm systems, the first late Sunday into Monday and
  a second late Tuesday into Wednesday, look to bring more
  widespread precipitation and a higher threat for burn scar flash
  flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms developed along the central and
western mountains this afternoon and are drifting east to southeast
over adjacent lower elevations. Slower steering flow aloft
associated with a ridge of high pressure over NM has allowed these
storms to produce a flash flood threat over recent burn scars. A
Flash Flood Warning in effect for the central portion of the
Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar where radar estimates of 1 to 2
inches of rain earlier this afternoon remains in effect to 3pm MDT.
This threat is subsiding as this storm activity drifts off the burn
scars over the adjacent highlands.

Meanwhile, smoke and dust producing haze up the Rio Grande Valley
this morning has improved only marginally this afternoon thus far.
Diurnal heating and mixing should further improve visibility through
the rest of the day. However, there may be some patchy haze
lingering overnight into Sunday morning.

Sunday sees a 577dm H5 low off the Baja Coast begin to move ashore,
tapping into a slug of sub-tropical moisture associated with the
remnants of TS Alvin, spinning it northward into northwestern
Mexico. Boundary layer moisture over New Mexico looks to be a step
lower relative to today, with a pseudo dryline setting up along the
central mountain chain. This is lowering PoPs along the central
mountain chain ~10-20 percent relative to today. Steering flow will
also be a notch higher with storm motions toward the east to
northeast 5-15 mph. This will help lower the threat of burn scar
flash flooding, not entirely removing it though. Overall afternoon
thunderstorm activity will be similar to what is observed today,
with isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms favoring western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Monday begins next week and the long term period with a surge of sub-
tropical moisture over New Mexico. The aforementioned slug of
moisture being spun up on the east side of the H5 low as it opens
over the desert southwest pushes PWATs to 1.00+ inches Monday
morning. This would be near the 90th percentile to record level for
early June, a prime indicator for a soupy atmosphere. As such,
numerical model guidance supports the numerous to widespread PoPs
spreading across central and northern NM Monday as the upper trough
crosses northeastward over the Four Corners region. Many areas of
central, western and northern NM should see beneficial rainfall.
Steering flow will keep storm motions fairly fast as well, limiting
the threat to burn scar flash flooding. A dry slot along the
southern periphery of the H5 trough will push in quickly Monday
afternoon looking to shut down PoPs through southwestern and south-
central NM first Monday afternoon. This spreads through northern
areas Monday night.

After a break break Tuesday morning, a second H5 low brings a new
round of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
and central NM Tuesday afternoon and evening. Afternoon thunderstorm
activity shifts focus to the eastern plains Wednesday through the
rest of next week as the remnants of the second upper trough exits
the area with southwesterly flow aloft filling in behind and
southerly return flow from the Gulf bringing additional low level
moisture into eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Observations across northern and central New Mexico indicate VFR
(Visual Flight Rules) conditions, but some haze with visibility
greater than 6SM is still being observed. There is low confidence
on the reintroduction of lower visibility in smoke and haze
across portions of the Rio Grande valley tonight, as it will
depend on wildfire smoke production in Old Mexico. Currently, no
large smoke plumes are evident on satellite imagery to our south.
Showers and thunderstorms have and will continue to struggle to
develop west of the central mountain chain through the early
evening with isolated storms surviving into the east central
plains where gusty downburst winds, small hail, and brief
downpours will occur through mid evening. On Sunday, storms will
redevelop in similar areas with the Sangre de Cristos and
northeastern highlands/plains supporting scattered coverage with
fewer storms off of the south central mountains (Sacramentos).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

No fire weather concerns through the next three days as a
substantial increase in moisture and coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms moves into the area. The exception will be across
western NM Sunday afternoon where virga and isolated dry
thunderstorms will be present. Drier southwesterly flow looks to
return to western NM beginning Wednesday and lasting through the
rest of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  92  58  73 /   0   5  60  90
Dulce...........................  44  88  48  68 /   5  10  40  90
Cuba............................  52  86  51  67 /   5  10  70 100
Gallup..........................  48  88  48  71 /  10  20  70  90
El Morro........................  52  83  50  68 /  10  30  80  90
Grants..........................  49  88  50  72 /  10  20  70  90
Quemado.........................  53  84  51  69 /  10  40  80  80
Magdalena.......................  59  85  57  73 /  10  30  70  90
Datil...........................  53  83  52  70 /  10  40  80  80
Reserve.........................  48  89  49  76 /  10  40  80  70
Glenwood........................  53  93  52  80 /  20  30  80  60
Chama...........................  44  82  45  64 /  10  20  40  90
Los Alamos......................  56  83  58  69 /  10  20  50  90
Pecos...........................  53  84  55  70 /  10  30  40  90
Cerro/Questa....................  50  82  53  69 /  20  30  20  70
Red River.......................  43  71  45  61 /  20  30  20  80
Angel Fire......................  39  77  43  65 /  10  30  20  70
Taos............................  46  84  50  71 /  10  20  20  70
Mora............................  47  79  49  70 /  10  30  30  80
Espanola........................  54  91  56  76 /   5  20  40  90
Santa Fe........................  57  85  57  70 /   5  20  40  90
Santa Fe Airport................  55  89  57  72 /   5  20  40  90
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  92  63  74 /  10  10  60  90
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  93  61  76 /  10  10  60  90
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  96  60  78 /  10  10  60  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  94  62  76 /  10  10  60  90
Belen...........................  57  95  59  79 /  10  10  60  80
Bernalillo......................  61  95  62  77 /  10  10  50  90
Bosque Farms....................  57  95  58  78 /  10  10  60  80
Corrales........................  62  95  61  78 /  10  10  60  90
Los Lunas.......................  58  95  60  79 /  10  10  60  80
Placitas........................  62  91  62  73 /  10  10  50  90
Rio Rancho......................  62  95  62  76 /  10  10  60  90
Socorro.........................  61  96  63  83 /  10  20  60  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  86  55  70 /  10  10  50  90
Tijeras.........................  58  88  57  71 /  10  10  50  90
Edgewood........................  54  88  54  71 /  10  20  50  90
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  89  51  73 /  10  20  40  90
Clines Corners..................  53  83  53  69 /  10  20  30  80
Mountainair.....................  56  87  54  71 /  10  10  50  80
Gran Quivira....................  54  86  54  73 /  10  10  50  80
Carrizozo.......................  61  89  60  77 /  10  20  40  70
Ruidoso.........................  57  81  57  72 /   5  30  40  80
Capulin.........................  48  77  52  74 /  20  30  10  30
Raton...........................  48  83  50  77 /  20  40  10  40
Springer........................  48  82  52  78 /  10  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  49  82  52  72 /  10  40  20  70
Clayton.........................  55  82  58  83 /  30  10  10  20
Roy.............................  52  81  55  77 /  20  20  10  40
Conchas.........................  57  89  60  84 /  20  20  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  56  88  59  79 /  20  20  20  60
Tucumcari.......................  58  89  62  83 /  20   5  20  50
Clovis..........................  61  92  63  83 /  20   5  10  50
Portales........................  60  92  63  86 /  20   5   5  50
Fort Sumner.....................  59  93  60  85 /  20  10  10  70
Roswell.........................  66  98  69  91 /   5   5  10  60
Picacho.........................  61  91  62  84 /   5  30  30  70
Elk.............................  58  89  59  83 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...52