913
FXUS65 KABQ 160802
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- Scattered showers and storms today become more numerous Thursday
  and Friday, increasing the threat of flash flooding. Heavy
  rainfall is most likely in north-central and northeastern New
  Mexico.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany storms each day around the area. A few storms in
  northeastern New Mexico may become severe both today and
  Thursday.

- Rain chances decrease this weekend into early next week, however
  a minor to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding will
  persist. Temperatures rise above seasonal averages early next
  week, creating moderate heat risk concerns in the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The center of the H5 ridge will move directly over central NM today,
which will make storm motion very slow and erratic. Overall, storm
coverage will be similar to Tuesday, but storm intensity may be a
tad higher with the influx of moisture from the southwest. Models
have been consistent with showing a cluster of storms developing in
the southwest mountains, with sfc convergence supporting its
maintenance for several hours into the evening despite near-
stationary storm motion. The other area to watch will be the
northeastern quadrant of the state because of a frontal passage that
will come southward down the High Plains. This will support the
intensification of storms as they come off the Sangre de Cristo
mountains and a few of these storms may become severe in the
northeast plains. Most models show a rapid reduction in storm
intensity as the backdoor front accelerates south and west. There is
reason to suggest that a few storms could initiate in the highlands
and along the central mountain chain as the front sweeps through,
but they would struggle to maintain their strength for very long
given that the atmosphere will be becoming increasingly stable. A
moist east canyon wind will blow through the gaps of the central
mountain chain early Thursday morning, surging PWATs to over 1" at
KABQ and setting the stage for a more active Thursday.

The center of the H5 ridge will be all the way in east TX by the
time of convective initiation on Thursday afternoon, allowing
southerly flow to develop across New Mexico. A moist and unstable
atmosphere will support numerous showers and storms on Thursday
afternoon, which will trek northward and expand in coverage through
the afternoon. Deterministic QPF amounts are quite light (generally
0.2" or less in most areas), but locally heavier totals can be
expected. The off-scar flash flood risk will be greatest in
northeastern NM where several key ingredients are in place. First of
all, there is plenty of moisture and instability. Second, a weak mid-
level shortwave will provide additional forcing for storm initiation
and maintenance as they come off the mountains into the highlands
and plains. And lastly, east to southeast flow in the 850-700mb
layer will provide a constant source of moisture advection that will
make it difficult for the atmosphere to work itself over. For this
reason, WPC has introduced a Slight risk area across the
northeastern quadrant of the state and a Flash Flood Watch may be
issued in future forecast packages.

The threat for flash flooding in the Ruidoso are does increase on
Thursday due to the potential for heavy rainfall rates, however
confidence remains low to moderate at this time. The S to N storm
motion has not been a heavy rainfall producer over the Ruidoso
area burn scars thus far this monsoon season. Model QPF bullseyes
generally show the heaviest rainfall off-scar which is good news,
but it may not matter given their sensitivity. Soil moisture
analysis shows 70%+ saturation over the burn scars, further
supporting even more efficient runoff.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Friday`s forecast is slightly more tricky than Thursday. The H5
ridge will still be well off to the east, but the upper-low over
Baja California will finally eject northward into AZ. Storm motions
will be faster than on Thursday, but the near uni-directional flow
aloft will make it more difficult for storms to train and there is
always a chance that debris clouds from the night before prevent
destabilization and therefore limit rainfall rates. Saturday will be
similar to Friday, except that precipitation chances come down a tad
in response to dry air advection from the west. The downward trend
in storm chances continues into Sunday and Monday. Both ENS and GEFS
ensemble mean PWATs show a gradual drying trend, but each have a few
members (including the deterministic Euro) which show a rapid drying
trend, with only isolated storms over the high terrain as early as
Monday. Isolated to scattered convection is the most likely
scenario, with mountain areas favored for rain with this pattern
since storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they move
into the lower elevations.

The downtrend in rain chances will coincide with an increase in
temps, which will rise above seasonal averages early to mid-next
week. This will introduce moderate heat risk concerns to the lower
elevations of central and eastern NM, with minor risk elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The last few showers of the night should dissipate within the next
few hours. Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the
overnight hours around the region.

Tomorrow`s crop of storms will develop over the western and
northern mountains around 18Z. Storm motion will be slow and
erratic, with the highest coverage in western and northeastern NM.
Gusty outflow winds of 30 to 40 kts will be commonplace with any
showers and storms that develop. Storms will likely persist well
past 00Z tomorrow in the northeastern quadrant of the state thanks
to a backdoor cold frontal intrusion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
Scattered showers and storms today will become more numerous
Thursday and Friday, bringing wetting rainfall to much of the
region, The heaviest rainfall is likely in the northern mountains
and northeast plains, where rainfall totals will likely exceed 2" in
a few spots. The increased rain chances will help to keep
temperatures below average, eventually warming above average early
next week as precipitation chances drop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  64  91  64 /  10  20  30  40
Dulce...........................  92  49  88  48 /  40  30  80  70
Cuba............................  90  58  86  56 /  30  40  80  80
Gallup..........................  89  56  85  54 /  60  60  70  60
El Morro........................  85  56  82  54 /  70  60  90  60
Grants..........................  90  57  85  55 /  50  60  90  60
Quemado.........................  86  56  83  56 /  90  80  90  60
Magdalena.......................  88  62  86  62 /  50  30  80  60
Datil...........................  85  54  83  55 /  80  50  80  50
Reserve.........................  89  52  88  54 /  90  70  90  50
Glenwood........................  92  57  92  60 /  90  60  80  40
Chama...........................  84  49  80  48 /  50  40  90  70
Los Alamos......................  86  62  81  60 /  40  40  90  70
Pecos...........................  87  57  81  56 /  50  40  90  70
Cerro/Questa....................  85  54  82  55 /  60  40 100  80
Red River.......................  75  46  72  45 /  60  50  90  80
Angel Fire......................  78  43  74  43 /  60  50  90  80
Taos............................  88  54  83  52 /  50  30  90  70
Mora............................  83  50  78  50 /  60  40  90  80
Espanola........................  95  61  90  59 /  40  30  80  70
Santa Fe........................  88  62  84  61 /  40  40  90  70
Santa Fe Airport................  92  61  88  59 /  40  30  80  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  68  91  65 /  30  20  70  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  70  92  67 /  20  20  50  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  67  94  65 /  20  20  40  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  68  93  66 /  20  20  40  60
Belen...........................  97  64  95  63 /  20  20  40  50
Bernalillo......................  98  68  94  64 /  30  20  60  70
Bosque Farms....................  97  64  94  63 /  20  20  40  60
Corrales........................  98  68  94  66 /  20  20  50  60
Los Lunas.......................  97  66  94  64 /  20  20  40  50
Placitas........................  94  65  90  62 /  30  30  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  97  68  93  65 /  20  20  50  60
Socorro.........................  98  69  96  67 /  20  20  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  59  85  58 /  30  30  80  60
Tijeras.........................  90  62  85  60 /  30  30  80  60
Edgewood........................  90  57  86  56 /  30  40  80  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  56  87  55 /  30  40  70  60
Clines Corners..................  85  57  80  56 /  30  40  70  60
Mountainair.....................  89  59  84  57 /  30  30  70  50
Gran Quivira....................  88  59  84  58 /  30  30  70  50
Carrizozo.......................  91  64  87  64 /  30  20  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  84  59  80  57 /  40  10  70  40
Capulin.........................  84  53  79  54 /  50  60  80  80
Raton...........................  89  54  81  55 /  50  50  80  90
Springer........................  90  56  82  56 /  40  40  80  80
Las Vegas.......................  86  54  80  54 /  40  40  80  70
Clayton.........................  92  59  81  61 /  20  60  40  70
Roy.............................  88  59  82  59 /  20  40  60  70
Conchas.........................  95  65  90  65 /   5  40  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  93  64  88  63 /  10  30  50  50
Tucumcari.......................  93  62  88  63 /   0  30  20  50
Clovis..........................  96  66  91  66 /   0  10  20  30
Portales........................  96  66  91  66 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  95  67  92  66 /   5  10  20  30
Roswell......................... 100  72  97  71 /   0   5  10  20
Picacho.........................  93  64  90  63 /  20   5  30  30
Elk.............................  89  61  88  60 /  30   5  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16