075
FXUS65 KABQ 072349 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and
  localized flash flooding, mostly across the high terrain and
  nearby lower elevations through Wednesday. Overall storm
  coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday, before lowering
  coverage Thursday and Friday.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and
  central New Mexico. Moderate heat risk across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The upper low over the Pacific NW over the weekend has moved east
over Montana with a trailing vort lobe over eastern Washington and
Idaho on this Labor Day. This has helped shift the upper high east
to over the central and southern Great Plains with the western flank
still hanging on across eastern NM. The position of these two upper
level features will has tightened the monsoon plume (containing some
moisture from Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific) from southwest
to north central NM. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
develop from the southwest to the north central mountains with an
overall storm motion to the northeast at 5 to 15 mph. The higher end
of this storm motion will be along and north of I-40 due to slightly
stronger mid and upper level winds at the base of the upper low
Storms will try to move in the upper and middle RGV during the late
afternoon and early evening hours before tapering off late evening.
Should be dry and hot across eastern NM due to lower instability and
equivalent potential temperature values across this part of the
state. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average
across central and eastern areas and near normal across western NM
due to the higher moisture and storm coverage under the monsoon
plume.

The initial upper low over Montana today exits northeast to central
Canada while the trailing vort lobe moves over Montana on Tuesday.
This will flatten the upper high from eastern NM to central and
southern Appalachians while strengthening to 595 to 596 dam at 500
mb. Guidance appears to have two centroids, one over the Ozarks and
middle Mississippi River Valley and another over central New Mexico
The monsoon plume and instability axis and thus better diurnal
shower and storm coverage will remain draped across southwest,
central, and northeast NM similar to today. CAMs do show a better
coverage across the Sacramento Mountains tomorrow afternoon compared
to this afternoon likely due to the monsoon plume nudging east-
southeast slightly. CAMs also show storms over the ridgeline
drifting west away from the burn scars due to the upper high
centroid between Albuquerque and Socorro. Storms both days will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
burn scars and low lying/poor drainage areas. High temperatures
tomorrow will be similar to today with northwest NM a touch warmer
due to clearer skies tomorrow morning compared to this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The 596 to 597 dam 500 mb upper high fully pivots back west to over
the NM/AZ border Wednesday due a trough axis moving across the north
central U.S. south of an upper low over Hudson Bay in Canada. This
trough looks to send a weak backdoor front through far northeast NM
and the east slopes of the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains come
midday Wednesday. Higher moisture (PWATS increasing from 1-1.2
inches to 1.2 to 1.4 inches) and upslope flow behind this front will
result in a better coverage of showers and storms across this part
of the state early Wednesday afternoon with weak northwest flow
directing storms into the northeast and east central highlands and
plains come Wednesday evening. CAMs are also showing a better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the mountain ranges and
nearby lower elevations along and south of I-40 Wednesday afternoon
and evening due to higher PWATS of 1 to 1.2 inches across this area.
Northwest flow around the upper high looks to bring drier air into
far northwest and north central NM (PWATS down to 0.5 to 0.8 inches)
mostly shutting down shower and thunderstorm activity across this
part of the state. The upper high continues shifting west to
southern CA and southwest AZ weakening to 593 to 595 dam at 500 mb
Thursday. The drier air across northwest and north central NM
Wednesday makes more progress south and east Thursday helping to
limit shower and storm coverage to the southern high terrain and
nearby lower elevations along with the Caprock due to PWATS around
0.9 to 1.3 inches and the remnants of Wednesday`s backdoor front
across far east central NM and West Texas.

The upper high further weakens to 591 to 592 at 500 mb as it moves
back east over southern AZ and NM. Relatively drier air looks to
remain in place with PWATS around 0.7 to 0.9 inches thus limiting
isolated to at most scattered storm coverage to the far western and
southern high terrain. Still low confidence this weekend into early
next week due to differences in the placement and strength of the
upper high as a upper low enters the Pacific NW. The deterministic
GFS, ECMWF, and AI-ECMWF shift the upper high east of the state late
Saturday and over the south central U.S. Sunday due to the upper low
pushing east to over the northern Rockies (Scenario #1). Meanwhile,
the AI-GFS and Canadian keep the upper high overhead and strengthen
it to 594 dam Saturday and 596 to 597 dam Sunday with the ridge axis
extending north to the northern Rockies and High Plains ad the upper
low remaining just off the coast of the Pacific NW (Scenario #2).
Looking at the ensemble clusters, there is a slight lean towards
Scenario #1 over #2 (65% to 35%). Scenario #1 will result in
slightly cooler temperatures with a monsoon plume and higher storm
coverage over western and central NM while Scenario #2 will result
in hotter temperatures and lower storm coverage with higher terrain
areas being favored.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Greater coverage of SHRA/TS over western NM and around the Sangre
de Cristo Mts today will spread into nearby lowlands on outflow
boundaries this evening. A large area of Convective SIGMETs have
been issued along the southern Rockies. SHRA/TS will linger later
tonight within central and western NM compared to previous nights.
Thick mid level cigs will clear slowly through the predawn hours.
Another crop of SHRA/TS will develop over most high terrain areas
between 12PM and 3PM Tuesday then move erratically north and east
into nearby lowlands thru sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

No critical fire weather concerns. Warm to hot temperatures across
lower elevations this week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of western and central NM
and nearby lower elevations today and tomorrow. Scattered to numerous
storms across the southwest and central mountains along with
northeast and east central New Mexico Wednesday as a backdoor front
entering northeast and east central New Mexico. Storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially over recent burn scars. Lower shower and storm coverage
confined to southern areas Thursday and far western and southern
areas Friday as drier air moves in from the north. Moisture and
shower and storm coverage could increase areawide again this
weekend, but forecast confidence during this time is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  91  61  94 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  89  47  92 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  57  86  57  89 /  50   0  10   5
Gallup..........................  55  88  56  90 /  10  10  10  20
El Morro........................  54  84  55  86 /  50  30  20  50
Grants..........................  58  86  58  88 /  70  40  20  20
Quemado.........................  56  83  57  85 /  40  50  30  70
Magdalena.......................  60  84  62  86 /  50  50  10  50
Datil...........................  57  80  58  82 /  60  50  30  60
Reserve.........................  56  89  57  91 /  50  50  20  70
Glenwood........................  61  95  62  96 /  50  40  20  70
Chama...........................  51  83  52  85 /  10  10   5   5
Los Alamos......................  62  84  63  86 /  50  50  20  20
Pecos...........................  58  86  59  87 /  30  20  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  56  84  56  85 /  20  20  10  20
Red River.......................  48  75  48  75 /  20  40  10  50
Angel Fire......................  43  80  42  80 /  20  50  10  60
Taos............................  55  88  54  89 /  20  20  10  10
Mora............................  54  83  54  84 /  30  70  20  80
Espanola........................  62  91  62  93 /  50  20  20  10
Santa Fe........................  62  87  63  88 /  40  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  61  89  61  91 /  40  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  93  70  95 /  40  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  93  67  96 /  40  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  95  67  97 /  40  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  69  96 /  40  10  10  10
Belen...........................  64  94  65  96 /  40  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  67  95  68  97 /  40  10  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  63  93  65  96 /  40  10  10   5
Corrales........................  67  95  68  97 /  40  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  64  93  66  96 /  40  10  10   5
Placitas........................  66  91  67  93 /  40  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  67  94  68  96 /  40  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  68  95  70  97 /  40  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  87  63  88 /  40  10  20  40
Tijeras.........................  62  88  64  89 /  40  10  20  40
Edgewood........................  58  89  60  90 /  40  20  20  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  91  57  91 /  40  20  20  60
Clines Corners..................  60  87  60  87 /  30  20  30  60
Mountainair.....................  58  88  60  89 /  30  20  20  70
Gran Quivira....................  59  88  61  88 /  20  20  20  70
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  65  91 /  10  30  20  60
Ruidoso.........................  57  82  58  83 /   5  50  10  70
Capulin.........................  59  86  56  82 /  20  70  40  70
Raton...........................  57  89  55  87 /  20  60  10  70
Springer........................  58  92  56  90 /  20  50  20  70
Las Vegas.......................  58  87  57  87 /  20  30  20  70
Clayton.........................  67  93  65  90 /   5  20  30  60
Roy.............................  63  91  61  89 /   5  20  40  70
Conchas.........................  68  99  68  97 /   0  10  30  60
Santa Rosa......................  67  95  66  94 /   0  10  20  60
Tucumcari.......................  71  99  70  97 /   0   0  10  60
Clovis..........................  68  97  68  98 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  68  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  69  98 /   0   0  10  30
Roswell.........................  70  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  92  63  94 /   0  10   5  20
Elk.............................  59  90  59  91 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42