684
FXUS65 KABQ 121144 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of
  flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New
  Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air
  quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A definitive shift in the monsoon circulation pattern has begun as
the upper level ridge shifts east of NM thru at least early next
week. An extended stretch of wet weather will target northern and
western NM with the flooding risk expected to increase with each
passing day of locally heavy rainfall.

The latest water vapor imagery and derived-motion winds show the
monsoon moisture plume expanding northeastward across the southwest
CONUS ahead of a 40kt speed max off the Baja coast. The H5 ridge
over northern NM is weakening while getting shunted to the east. A
convective circulation over northern Sonora early this morning will
be drawn northward along the AZ/NM border this afternoon and into
the Four Corners region tonight. 06Z satellite blended PWAT values
have increased to near 1" over western NM and values are above 1.2"
upstream over southern AZ. 00Z/06Z CAMs show showers and storms
erupting over the high terrain early this afternoon then moving
slowly north thru late tonight. The heaviest rainfall will focus
along and west of the Cont Divide where REFS/HREF 6-hr LPMM QPF
shows several bullseyes of 0.75 to 1.50" with a few isolated areas
>2". These rainfall amounts would likely be enough to overcome the
drier soils that have developed from the recent heatwave and dry
stretch. A Flood Watch has been issued from 1PM to 10PM today for
parts of western NM. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected along
the central mt chain and the northern mts today but this area has
seen a much longer stretch of dry weather. Nonetheless, there is
still a chance for flash flooding beneath the heavier and more
persistent cells in central NM.

Thursday is now trending toward a down day with widespread debris
clouds from Wednesday night possibly limiting storm development. The
Gila region may see enough clearing by the afternoon to allow for
more vigorous storm development. Far northeast NM may also be an
area to watch for storms as a weak surface boundary sags south from
eastern CO. Temps may also trend a few degrees cooler than shown
given potential for widespread cloud cover to linger into midday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Friday may be the next active day as another remnant convective wave
from Mexico surges northward across NM. PWATs are shown peaking from
near 1" over northern NM to near 1.4" over southern NM. NBM 24-hour
mean QPF shows fairly widespread rainfall of 0.25" to 0.75" which is
not overly impressive. However, the NBM 90th percentile values perk
up on Friday with most high terrain areas averaging 1.25" to 1.75".
These values may rise even more once hi-res models get a handle on
the scenario. A larger area of Flood Watches may be needed.

Saturday and Sunday also have the potential to be active days as
the moisture plume remains centered over central and western NM.
More disturbances are shown moving north into the monsoon plume
which may help to improve lift over the region over the weekend.
However, as is always the case with monsoon bursts, thicker cloud
cover may inhibit storm development on either of the days.

The GFS and ECMWF both show the upper level ridge strengthening to
near 598dm with a westward extension into more of eastern NM by
Monday. This may force the moisture plume west into far western
NM and AZ. However, another upstream trough developing along the
West Coast will dictate how far west the plume actually makes it.
This trough is likely to force the moisture plume back eastward
over NM thru next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A vigorous crop of SHRA/TS will develop along the Cont Divide
between 12PM and 2PM then move north and west into nearby lowlands
thru late tonight. Direct hits will be capable of MVFR vsbys from
heavy rain and outflow wind gusts >35KT. This activity will drift
north into the Four Corners as an area of rain with isolated TS
thru late tonight. Storms are possible along the central mt chain
and nearby Rio Grande Valley as well today but coverage is not
expected to be as high as over western NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The coverage of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall
amounts >1" will trend up today along and west of the central mt
chain. Lightning strikes may still lead to new fire starts in dry
fuel beds. A rich plume of monsoon moisture will stream northward
across NM Thursday thru Sunday. Showers and storms will move north/
northeast each day and be capable or producing rainfall rates of 1
to 2" per hour. 5-day rainfall amounts ending Sunday will average
0.50 to 1.50" over northern and western NM, with locally heavier
amounts >3" possible. This rainfall will help to moisten fuels and
limit new fire starts from lightning. The risk for flash flooding
will also increase on area burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  63  87  61 /  10  50  30  40
Dulce...........................  90  48  85  48 /  40  50  60  60
Cuba............................  88  56  83  55 /  30  40  40  50
Gallup..........................  86  54  81  52 /  50  50  60  40
El Morro........................  82  52  77  51 /  60  50  70  40
Grants..........................  87  55  83  54 /  60  50  70  40
Quemado.........................  81  56  77  55 /  80  40  70  40
Magdalena.......................  86  61  83  61 /  60  10  80  30
Datil...........................  81  55  77  54 /  70  20  70  30
Reserve.........................  87  55  83  53 /  80  40  80  30
Glenwood........................  91  58  88  57 /  50  50  80  20
Chama...........................  83  48  79  48 /  50  40  80  50
Los Alamos......................  88  60  83  59 /  40  30  50  50
Pecos...........................  89  57  86  57 /  20  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  87  56  83  55 /  20  30  40  30
Red River.......................  81  46  73  46 /  40  20  60  20
Angel Fire......................  82  39  79  38 /  40  10  70  10
Taos............................  90  53  85  53 /  20  20  30  30
Mora............................  87  54  83  53 /  30  10  60  20
Espanola........................  95  60  90  60 /  30  30  30  40
Santa Fe........................  90  61  86  61 /  20  30  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  92  59  89  58 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  67  90  66 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  64  94  63 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  67  92  66 /  20  20  30  40
Belen...........................  97  63  93  63 /  20  10  20  40
Bernalillo......................  97  66  94  65 /  20  20  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  97  62  93  61 /  20  20  20  40
Corrales........................  98  66  94  66 /  20  20  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  97  64  93  63 /  20  20  20  40
Placitas........................  92  65  89  64 /  20  20  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  97  66  93  66 /  20  20  30  40
Socorro.........................  98  67  94  66 /  30  10  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  58  84  57 /  20  20  30  30
Tijeras.........................  91  60  88  60 /  20  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  92  56  89  56 /  20  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  55  90  55 /  20  20  30  20
Clines Corners..................  89  59  86  58 /  20  10  30  20
Mountainair.....................  91  57  88  57 /  20  10  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  90  58  87  58 /  20  10  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  92  65  89  64 /  20  10  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  85  59  83  59 /  30  20  30   5
Capulin.........................  90  57  86  55 /   5   5  40  20
Raton...........................  93  56  90  55 /   5  10  40  10
Springer........................  96  57  92  56 /   5   5  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  91  57  88  56 /  10  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  98  66  96  64 /   0   0  20  30
Roy.............................  94  61  91  60 /   0   5  20  10
Conchas......................... 102  69  99  67 /   0   5  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  97  67  94  65 /   5  10  20  20
Tucumcari....................... 103  71 100  68 /   0   5   5  20
Clovis.......................... 101  70  99  69 /   0   5   5  10
Portales........................ 102  71  99  70 /   0  10   5  10
Fort Sumner..................... 101  69  98  68 /   0   5  10  20
Roswell......................... 102  71 100  71 /   5   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  96  66  94  65 /  20  20  30   5
Elk.............................  92  62  91  61 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening
for NMZ202-205-206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42