Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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205 FXUS65 KABQ 170819 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 119 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 - A Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from late Tuesday night through Thursday night, with good chances for mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a moderate to high chance (60-80%) that winter highlights will be required for accumulating snow in the mountains from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 The first in a series of upper level troughs/lows is currently racing northeast through the central and southern Rockies per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Strong winds aloft rounding the base of the trough across northern NM are bringing windy conditions to the Sangre De Cristos currently, which will expand across the adjacent eastern and central highlands later this morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these areas through 2PM MDT, with gusts to between 50-55mph likely. Downslope warming will keep relative warmer conditions going across much of eastern NM 5 today, with high temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees above average. Moisture advection will ramp up Tuesday in advance of the next upper level low, currently offshore of northern CA per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. The result will be increasing cloud cover, but with forcing too weak to produce precipitation. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 The latest model solutions are in good agreement on the timing and track of the next upper low, forecast to impact the region from late Tuesday night through Thursday night. Moisture advection will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday, with PWATs rising well above normal across much of the area in advance of the approaching 556dam 500mb low. A jet maxima rounding the base of the low will pull northeast away from the upper circulation going into Thursday, bringing a filling upper low and negatively tilted trough squarely over NM. The strongest forcing in this scenario will be over our area late Wednesday night through Thursday, when PoPs are highest and continuing to trend up with each forecast cycle. Snow levels will be relatively high through this event, with significant snow accumulation likely above 7500ft. At this time, there is a moderate to high chance (60-80%) that winter highlights will be required for the mountains of NM for late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Snow may work down to around 6Kft Thursday morning, but will mix with rain and the airmass won`t be supportive of major population centers being impacted by accumulating snow. Notably cooler conditions will come Thursday and continue into Friday as the system pulls northeast into the central US Plains and away from NM. Lower forecast confidence on the timing and placement of the next upper low, which will begin impacting the region late in the weekend after a roughly two day lull in activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 A Pacific storm system has lifted north of the Four Corners area, carrying associated showers into north central New Mexico and Colorado. This activity will temporarily drop ceilings and visibility down to the MVFR category (ceilings less than 3000 ft and visibility less than 5 miles) with gust winds accompanying. Mountain peaks in these areas will also be obscured in lower clouds and rain/snow through 17/0900UTC when showers will start to exit and fall apart. Winds aloft will intensify overnight with winds at 10,000ft above sea level reaching 40-50 kt. This will produce mountain wave activity along and just east of the Sangre de Cristos with turbulence extending to the eastern plains and down to just a couple thousand feet above the surface (low level wind shear). Stronger winds will mix down to the surface through the mid to late morning hours Monday with gusts peaking at 30-40 kt near KLVS, KCQC, KSXU, and KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. A series of Pacific storm systems will impact the region through the weekend, bringing higher humidity, chances for wetting precipitation and notably cooler conditions. The first system is currently moving across the central and southern Rockies and will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to much of eastern NM today. The second storm system will hit the area Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for more widespread wetting precipitation and snow accumulation in the mountains. The third system will impact the area late in the weekend. Vent rates will trend down and be mostly poor late in the week and through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 33 57 36 / 0 0 10 20 Dulce........................... 47 20 54 27 / 20 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 50 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 52 30 56 29 / 0 5 5 20 El Morro........................ 50 30 54 32 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 54 29 57 29 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 55 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 59 36 58 40 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 55 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 58 31 58 31 / 0 0 5 30 Glenwood........................ 62 36 62 35 / 0 0 10 30 Chama........................... 41 20 48 27 / 30 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 52 33 53 38 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 53 32 56 35 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 26 52 32 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 42 22 50 28 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 44 17 53 26 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 50 23 55 30 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 52 29 57 32 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 57 29 59 34 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 54 32 55 38 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 38 58 44 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 39 61 43 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 64 34 62 38 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 60 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 62 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 60 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 63 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 57 36 58 42 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 59 35 59 41 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 66 38 64 42 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 33 55 39 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 55 34 57 41 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 55 30 58 38 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 26 60 31 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 53 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 56 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 33 58 38 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 61 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 56 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 59 28 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 62 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 62 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 58 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 67 37 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 63 33 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 71 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 42 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 40 73 44 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 74 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 68 41 70 44 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 65 37 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ213>215. Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52