Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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393 FXUS65 KABQ 122346 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 446 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 444 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of record highs across eastern New Mexico Thursday and Friday afternoons, then again over some southeastern locations on Saturday. - Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected mainly over western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night, with decreasing coverage on Monday. Snow accumulation now looks to favor locations above 7500 feet with a few inches possible on higher peaks, except for locally higher amounts near the Colorado border && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 High clouds will briefly thicken tonight into Thursday morning mainly over western and north central areas. Then, sheets of thin, high clouds will continue to cross through Saturday. Otherwise, fair weather is expected through Saturday while a ridge of high pressure persists over NM aloft. West winds will become gusty over east central areas on Friday due to a surface trough in the lee of the central mountain chain. High temperatures will vary around 8-18 degrees above 1991-2020 averages Thursday through Saturday. The greatest departures from average will be east of the central mountain chain, where near record readings are expected in some locations both Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, temperatures will trend a little cooler with the arrival of a backdoor cold front on the northeast plains, but some locations south of I-40 and east of the central mountain chain can expect more near record warmth. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 An upper level low pressure system off the southern CA coast is forecast to eject northeastward across the Great Basin Saturday, which is significantly slower and father north than depicted by previous model runs. Where the system will go Saturday night and Sunday depends on the model, but ensemble cluster analysis indicates the most likely track will be eastward across the central Rockies. This track decreases the chance that New Mexico will receive much precipitation. At this time, QPF over western and north central parts of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night looks to remain mostly under a quarter inch, except for some higher amounts on mountain peaks, and locally over a half inch in the Tusas Mountains. Temperatures at 700 mb look to gradually lower between -2 and -4 C Sunday night, so only a few inches of snow accumulation are expected on mountain peaks with locally higher amounts on the Brazos Ridge near the CO border. Temperatures will also trend cooler with the passage of a Pacific cold front late Sunday and Sunday night. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday should vary from around 6 degrees below 30-year averages over western areas to around 6 degrees above the averages on the far eastern plains. After decreasing precip chances Monday, precip chances may begin to increase again over western areas as additional disturbances cycling through a long wave trough over the western US approach the Four Corners. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions will prevail across northern and central New Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours with light to moderate breezes (5-20kt) and lots of high, fair weather cirrus clouds overhead. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 With the ridge of high pressure overhead, broad areas of critically low minimum humidity are forecast to return to many lower elevation locations on Thursday, then persist east of the central mountain chain on Friday. Minimum humidities will climb above 15 percent this weekend, then should remain there through the first half of the coming week with the active storm track over the western US. Southwest winds will become gusty in many locations on Sunday with the strongest gusts potentially reaching 35 mph in the Northeast Highlands along the I-25 corridor. Gusty winds will may return to eastern areas on Monday, but confidence in location is low at this time because some models depict a backdoor cold front entering the eastern plains Sunday night into Monday. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are expected to persist Thursday through the middle of next week, except for ventilation improvement in many locations with the stronger winds on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 66 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 35 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 31 67 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 70 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 42 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 73 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 77 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 55 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 23 61 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 66 27 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 34 71 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 66 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 40 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 33 71 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 71 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 35 71 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 43 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 40 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 41 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 37 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 39 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 43 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 37 68 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 71 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 31 73 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 37 71 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 76 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 37 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 36 78 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 43 79 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 81 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 81 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 39 81 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 44 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 42 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...52