934
FXUS65 KABQ 220834
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
134 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Patchy fog and freezing fog will continue across northeast
  and east central New Mexico this morning, creating reduced
  visibility and slick spots on road surfaces.

- Another storm system will bring a round of widespread rain and
  mountain snow tonight through Sunday and Sunday night. A few
  inches of accumulating snow will again be favored above 8,500
  feet.

- Those with travel plans for the weekend after Thanksgiving will
  want to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and
  statements. Remain prepared to alter travel routes or plans, as
  another Pacific storm system will potentially impact New
  Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 131 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

An upper level low has moved offshore of the upper Baja Peninsula
this morning with some mid to high level moisture and cloud cover
feeding into portions of NM. These altocumulus/altostratus clouds
are projected to lift northward and clear through the morning before
another wave moves in again as the upper low crosses the peninsula
into the upper Gulf of CA. In addition to the current mid level
clouds, low stratus and patchy fog are expanding over portions of
northern to east central NM, as winds are light and near surface
humidity is high after the recent precipitation on Thursday. In
addition, a weak front or wind shift is sliding into the southern
plains, advecting slightly higher dewpoints and this will continue
assisting the stratus/fog development through dawn. The low clouds
and stratus will then be slow to diminish through the late morning
and early afternoon. Through the afternoon the upper low will begin
to draw a widespread synoptic southeasterly surface flow into NM
with generally light speeds during the day except in west central
zones (closest to the low) where breezy conditions will take shape.

Going into tonight, the low will lift farther north into AZ with the
surface flow over NM backing a bit more easterly. This will open the
door to a gusty gap/canyon wind in vulnerable central areas like the
eastern ABQ metro where gusts of 30 to 35 mph are likely overnight.
Likely of more interest will be the onset of precipitation from the
low which should begin in the late evening over far west central and
southwestern zones before quickly expanding through central and some
eastern areas after midnight and through the morning. Through the
day Sunday, the low will lift into south central CO. Widespread rain
and mountain snow will accompany the diffluent flow ahead of the low
before interior dynamics of the low become the dominant forcing. Now
that we are within the temporal window of higher resolution models
and CAMs, the overall QPF picture for Saturday night and Sunday is
starting to become a bit more heterogeneous with an overall
reduction in QPF, especially in lower elevation areas outside of the
far eastern plains. Still, general amounts of 0.1 to 0.4" are
modeled with the northern mountains and far eastern plains hosting
the higher amounts. Snow levels still look to remain quite high with
700 mb temperatures of -2 to -3 C around the core of the low
suggesting that appreciable accumulations would be confined to areas
above 8,000 to 8,500 ft with low snow-to-liquid ratios (often
ranging between 4:1 to 8:1 before climbing some late Sunday). This
will yield a few inches of snow, especially over the northern
mountains, and another Winter Weather Advisory will be hoisted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 131 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Precipitation will turn very light into Sunday night as the low
treks toward northwestern KS. Any additional rain/snow will tend to
stay confined to northwestern and north central NM zones with mostly
negligible amounts. Low clouds and fog will present a challenge to
pinpoint Sunday night into Monday morning with saturated soils
trying to prime condensation processes while westerly donwslope
(warming) flow offsets in some leeward areas. Precipitation would be
prone to fully cease by late Monday morning with scattered low
cumulus and stratocumulus lingering into the afternoon. By Monday
afternoon, the flow aloft would be from the west northwest with a
relatively strong gradient aloft and higher surface pressures over
the Four Corners. This would lead to gusty winds over the central
highlands and adjacent high plains where gusts of 35-45 mph are
likely.

On Tuesday, attention will turn to the northern Great Plains where
the next vigorous perturbation aloft will be moving east
southeastward. The GFS/GEFS solutions continue to depict this
feature stronger and colder as a closed low while ECMWF/EPS
solutions lean more towards an open shortwave solution. Either suite
of solutions sends down a notable backdoor cold front into eastern
NM Tuesday, with the GFS/GEFS being stronger with the cold air
advection. This looks to be a mostly dry passage with only a few
sprinkles/flurries being depicted in CO and far northeastern NM.
Temperatures would start falling below climatology Tuesday,
especially in northern zones, and the cooling would continue into
Wednesday for the eastern plains (still just 2 to 6 degrees below
normal).

With the frontal passage out of the way, a dry and mostly tranquil
day will be on hand for the Thanksgiving Day holiday as zonal flow
aloft prevails. Temperatures will rise to or just slightly above
normal with lots of 50`s and low 60`s for daytime highs. The dry
zonal pattern will persist into Friday with temperatures gaining
another 1 to 3 degrees of warming.

The flow aloft looks to buckle into Saturday and more-so into Sunday
as a deep Pacific trough overtakes the Great Basin and southwestern
states. This would be a colder core system capable of lower snow
levels and therefore more travel impacts for the weekend following
the holiday. For now there is remarkable agreement and consensus for
this system among deterministic, ensemble, and AI model members.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will move across the airspace from
south to northwest overnight. A weak boundary across northeast NM
is pushing southeast across the rest of eastern NM. Low clouds
will develop across much of northeast and east central NM in it`s
wake early Saturday morning. This will result in some IFR to
potentially as low as Airport Minimum conditions for sites across
this area, including KLVS and KTCC. Some patchy fog cannot be
ruled out as well. Have included a TEMPO at KTCC but did not have
enough confidence to include it for KLVS. Low clouds look to
remain in the vicinity but not directly impact KROW around sunrise
Saturday at this time. Low clouds across northeast and east
central NM look to break up during the late morning hours with two
areas of SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds moving into western
and central NM and far southeast NM during the afternoon. Heading
into the evening hours, southeast winds increase across western
NM along with a strengthening east gap wind at KABQ. Gusts of
around 25 kts will be possible at KABQ right at the end of the TAF
period. The leading edge of rain and mountain snow showers moves
into far southwest NM along with lowering VFR ceilings in western
NM, including KFMN and KGUP, at the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the next 7 days. No
precipitation is forecast today, but widespread wetting rain
(generally between 0.1 to 0.4") and mountain snow will return
tonight into Sunday. Good to excellent overnight and early morning
humidity recoveries will continue into next week which will also
help to mitigate fire weather concerns. However, wind concerns will
include gusty gap/canyon winds tonight into Sunday morning around
vulnerable central locales such as the eastern Albuquerque metro
area, Abo Pass, and Glorieta Pass. Then, on Monday breezy to windy
conditions will develop over the central highlands to the nearby
high plains (Clines Corners, Vaughn, Corona, Fort Sumner) where
gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur in the afternoon. As for prescribed
burning, smoke ventilation and dispersion will often be poor during
the first half of the work week next week, the exception being the
windier areas of the central highlands and nearby high plains on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  40  49  34 /   0  60  70   5
Dulce...........................  59  29  44  27 /   0  50 100  30
Cuba............................  57  34  45  30 /   0  60  90  20
Gallup..........................  59  33  45  28 /   0  80  60  10
El Morro........................  56  33  43  32 /   0  80  70  20
Grants..........................  57  34  47  29 /   0  80  60  10
Quemado.........................  59  33  46  31 /   0  80  50  10
Magdalena.......................  57  38  50  34 /   0  80  40   0
Datil...........................  55  34  45  32 /   0  80  40   5
Reserve.........................  64  33  47  25 /   0  90  50   5
Glenwood........................  67  36  51  29 /   5  90  50   0
Chama...........................  53  27  40  24 /   0  40 100  40
Los Alamos......................  54  35  44  33 /   0  80  90  30
Pecos...........................  57  34  44  30 /   0  80  90  10
Cerro/Questa....................  52  31  41  28 /   0  30  90  30
Red River.......................  46  24  36  23 /   0  30  90  30
Angel Fire......................  52  20  40  19 /   0  30  90  20
Taos............................  56  29  44  27 /   0  40  90  20
Mora............................  58  29  44  27 /   0  50  90  10
Espanola........................  60  31  49  31 /   0  60  90  30
Santa Fe........................  57  37  45  34 /   0  80  90  20
Santa Fe Airport................  59  36  48  32 /   0  80  90  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  42  51  39 /   0  80  70   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  40  53  35 /   0  80  70   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  40  55  33 /   0  80  60   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  41  53  35 /   0  80  70   5
Belen...........................  63  36  56  32 /   0  80  60   0
Bernalillo......................  64  40  54  35 /   0  80  70  10
Bosque Farms....................  63  36  55  29 /   0  80  60   5
Corrales........................  64  40  54  34 /   0  80  70   5
Los Lunas.......................  63  37  55  32 /   0  80  60   0
Placitas........................  60  40  51  37 /   0  80  80  10
Rio Rancho......................  62  40  53  35 /   0  80  70   5
Socorro.........................  64  40  58  35 /   0  80  40   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  36  47  33 /   0  80  80   5
Tijeras.........................  59  37  49  34 /   0  80  80   5
Edgewood........................  59  35  49  32 /   0  80  80   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  34  51  30 /   0  80  80   0
Clines Corners..................  57  33  47  31 /   0  80  80   0
Mountainair.....................  60  35  49  32 /   0  80  80   5
Gran Quivira....................  61  36  50  32 /   0  80  70   5
Carrizozo.......................  64  40  53  33 /   0  70  70   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  37  48  33 /   0  60  70   0
Capulin.........................  57  29  45  26 /   0   5  90   5
Raton...........................  59  28  45  24 /   0  10  80  10
Springer........................  60  28  49  26 /   0  10  80   5
Las Vegas.......................  58  32  46  29 /   0  50  90   0
Clayton.........................  62  35  51  35 /   0   0  90   5
Roy.............................  59  33  47  31 /   0  20  90   0
Conchas.........................  64  35  55  36 /   0  30  90   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  36  55  37 /   0  50  90   0
Tucumcari.......................  65  36  56  37 /   0  20  90   5
Clovis..........................  66  41  57  40 /   0  30  90  10
Portales........................  67  40  59  39 /   0  30 100  10
Fort Sumner.....................  64  37  57  37 /   0  40  90   0
Roswell.........................  65  44  63  38 /   0  30  70   0
Picacho.........................  63  39  61  36 /   0  60  60   0
Elk.............................  62  35  56  31 /   0  60  50   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MST
Sunday night for NMZ210-211-213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71