Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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038 FXUS65 KABQ 170536 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1036 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Rain showers and mountain snow showers will move quickly east over western and north central New Mexico through this evening. A few inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly near the Colorado border in the Tusas Mountains. - A Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from Tuesday night through Thursday night, with greater chances of mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a moderate chance (50-70%) that winter highlights will be required for accumulating snow in the northern mountains with the mid week system. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 132 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 An elongated H5 low near Las Vegas, NV will swing northeast into UT today and force a cold front eastward into western and central NM tonight. A band of showers and isolated storms moving east with the front will produce a few hours of impactful weather over western NM and the northern mts thru this evening. The 15Z RRFS and 18Z HRRR force this line of showers with gusty winds into the ABQ and SAF metro areas between 5pm and 8pm this evening. The latest NBM 50th percentile gusts average 25 to 30 mph along the frontal passage. Frontolysis takes place once reaching the central mt chain then orographic precip focuses on the west-facing slopes of the northern mts thru midnight. Impacts from snow will be confined to areas above 8500 ft with 1-4" possible in the Tusas/San Juan Mts and northern portions of the Sangre de Cristos. The focus will then shift to a period of strong west winds along the east slopes of the central mt chain early Monday morning. 700mb winds near 50kt within the base of the trough will help to produce isolated gusts near 45 mph from near Angel Fire to Clines Corners and Vaughn. Coverage of the stronger gusts in not great enough to warrant a Wind Advisory at this time. The rest of Monday will feature increasing cirrus with much cooler temps areawide compared to recent weeks. A weak shortwave ridge will crest over the region Monday night with decreasing winds, more cirrus, and cool temps. Lows will still be 5 to 10F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 132 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Tuesday will be a transition day ahead of the next storm system moving into SoCal. Cirrus will continue spreading overhead with slightly warmer max temps and increasing south/southwest breezes across central and western NM. A 556dm H5 low over SoCal Tuesday night will spread slowly east into western AZ Wednesday with a 105kt subtropical jet max moving north from northwest MX. Strong moisture advection will trend PWATs near +1 to +2 stdev above climo for late November across NM. The next round of showers and isolated storms is likely to spread north into NM with the upper jet forcing by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. South/southwest winds will also be breezy again areawide. Model agreement on the track of the H5 low is actually very good for this period which moves slowly east to the south of the I-40 corridor Thursday and Thursday night. Strong cold advection with the low may force snow levels down to near 6500 ft. The latest NBM 50th percentile 48-hr snow amounts show 1-3" over much of the high terrain with 90th percentile values in the 4-8" range in the northern mts. The higher-end amounts are a closer match to the latest WPC QPF forecast. This system will likely bring the coldest max temps of the fall season, which is only 5 to 10F below normal thru Friday. Another storm system may develop over SoCal and AZ around Friday or Saturday then move east across NM next weekend. Model guidance is coming into better agreement with their AI counterparts on another potentially impactful winter system for NM. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 A Pacific storm system has lifted north of the Four Corners area, carrying associated showers into north central New Mexico and Colorado. This activity will temporarily drop ceilings and visibility down to the MVFR category (ceilings less than 3000 ft and visibility less than 5 miles) with gust winds accompanying. Mountain peaks in these areas will also be obscured in lower clouds and rain/snow through 17/0900UTC when showers will start to exit and fall apart. Winds aloft will intensify overnight with winds at 10,000ft above sea level reaching 40-50 kt. This will produce mountain wave activity along and just east of the Sangre de Cristos with turbulence extending to the eastern plains and down to just a couple thousand feet above the surface (low level wind shear). Stronger winds will mix down to the surface through the mid to late morning hours Monday with gusts peaking at 30-40 kt near KLVS, KCQC, KSXU, and KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for at least the next seven days. An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the southwest U.S. this entire week. The first system will bring rain and high terrain snow to northwest NM later today with colder temps, higher humidity, and gusty winds thru Monday. The next system will move across NM Tuesday night thru Thursday night with greater chances for wetting rainfall and light to moderate snow accums in the high terrain. Yet another storm system may move across later this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 52 33 57 / 30 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 27 47 20 54 / 90 20 0 5 Cuba............................ 29 50 28 53 / 60 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 52 30 56 / 10 0 5 5 El Morro........................ 33 50 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 29 54 29 57 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 55 30 56 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 35 59 36 58 / 5 0 5 0 Datil........................... 31 55 31 56 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 58 31 58 / 10 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 33 62 36 62 / 10 0 0 10 Chama........................... 25 41 20 48 / 90 30 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 35 52 33 53 / 60 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 32 53 32 56 / 30 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 48 26 52 / 60 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 42 22 50 / 50 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 19 44 17 53 / 40 0 0 0 Taos............................ 29 50 23 55 / 60 0 0 0 Mora............................ 31 52 29 57 / 30 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 31 57 29 59 / 60 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 54 32 55 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 32 57 30 58 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 57 38 58 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 60 39 61 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 62 31 62 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 37 60 36 60 / 30 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 64 34 62 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 37 60 34 61 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 34 62 32 62 / 20 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 37 60 34 60 / 30 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 36 63 33 61 / 20 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 57 36 58 / 40 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 37 59 35 59 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 39 66 38 64 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 53 33 55 / 30 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 36 55 34 57 / 30 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 55 30 58 / 20 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 57 26 60 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 53 31 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 56 32 58 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 34 57 33 58 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 56 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 33 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 62 26 59 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 33 62 27 62 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 58 32 59 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 67 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 36 63 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 44 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 44 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 45 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST Monday for NMZ213>215. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Monday for NMZ223. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...52