Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
507 FXUS65 KABQ 311918 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 118 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will are expected each of the next several afternoons and evenings around central and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding may occur with any storm. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding today and Monday, trending slightly lower mid-week. - Storm chances may begin to trend up again late week into the weekend, increasing the risk of flash flooding and strong to severe storms (Moderate confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Ridging is rapidly amplifying over The Great Basin this afternoon so steering flow over New Mexico is rotating from the west around to the north. Low stratus cleared out more rapidly than previously anticipated so that likely won`t inhibit early afternoon convection as much as expected for areas along and east of the central mountain chain. A cluster of storms in the Tularosa Valley is pushing debris clouds into the southern portion of the CWA through which will help to limit sfc heating to some extent in the Ruidoso area. The deepest moisture remains to the south of Ruidoso, but there is the potential for slow-moving storms with rainfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour this afternoon, with decreasing risk after 6PM with the loss of solar heating. Elsewhere around central and northern New Mexico, modest instability (ML CAPE of 300-700 J/kg combined with bulk shear of 20-30KT should support the development of scattered storms, a few of which may become strong to severe. Mid-level drying (as evidenced by the 18Z sounding at KABQ) should prevent storm intensity to some extent, but shear will be able to support storms for a while as they move off the mountains into the lower elevations. The off-scar flash flood threat today will be greatest in the Gila mountains where back- building terrain-tied storms with rainfall rates up to 2"/hour could produce localized flash flooding. Dry soils should help to soak up much of this rainfall, but flood-prone low-lying areas could experience flooding. Storms will generally be confined to the eastern third of the state after sunset, with convective activity rapidly diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. The center of the H5 ridge moves over the Four Corners Monday, creating north to south steering flow over most of New Mexico. Scattered storms will once again develop over the high terrain into the lower elevations during the afternoon and evening. Overall, it will be a "typical" monsoon day with a low chance of flash flooding, small hail, and gusty outflow winds from any given storm. Troughing over the High Plains will allow for a weak backdoor frontal intrusion Monday night. However, the air in the wake of this front won`t actually increase moisture due to its Continental origins so dewpoints will actually trend slightly lower in its wake. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Moisture levels continue to trend down slightly Tuesday through Thursday as weak northerly flow remains entrenched over New Mexico. PWATs will be right around seasonal normals so isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms will continue to be a hazard. The very amplified and anomalous ridge over The Great Basin will help to draw moisture in from the south lake week as sfc pressures drop in the Intermountain West. New Mexico will be on the eastern fringes of this deeper moisture, but western NM will likely start to see an uptick in storm chances from Thursday onward. Precipitation chances may begin to trend up in central and eastern areas Friday into the weekend as well, especially if a shortwave with subtropical moisture traverses the desert southwest as shown by some of the deterministic guidance. Both the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean PWATs continue to show an increase in moisture during this period, with around half of the EPS and a quarter of the GEFS members showing a significant moisture surge around next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Scattered showers and storms will develop over the high terrain, moving SE through the afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and small hail will be the main aviation concerns, with any vis reductions from rain being quite brief. Storms will likely diminish in coverage and intensity in eastern NM around 03Z although there is a low chance storms persist into the early morning hours again. There is a very low chance (<10%) that low stratus with MVFR to IFR cigs develops in eastern NM in the early morning hours tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Scattered showers and storms today will favor the high terrain of northern and southwest NM. Wetting footprints will be localized, with the greatest coverage in the southwest mountains where rainfall rates as high as 2" are possible. Typical isolated to scattered storm coverage will continue to be the story Monday through Thursday as ridging amplifies over the Great Basin and places week northerly steering flow over New Mexico. Humidities will trend slightly drier mid-week, particularly in the west where afternoon humidities may drop into the upper teens Tuesday through Thursday. Most models indicate an increase in moisture late week, resulting in higher storm chances across all of central and northern New Mexico. Above average temps will likely fall below average late week due to the increased moisture and cloud coverage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 84 46 85 / 20 20 10 20 Cuba............................ 51 81 52 82 / 20 30 10 30 Gallup.......................... 53 85 52 85 / 0 10 5 20 El Morro........................ 53 80 53 81 / 20 30 10 30 Grants.......................... 53 83 53 84 / 20 30 10 30 Quemado......................... 53 82 53 82 / 20 30 20 30 Magdalena....................... 56 80 57 80 / 40 40 20 30 Datil........................... 51 78 52 79 / 30 40 20 30 Reserve......................... 53 88 53 87 / 30 40 20 40 Glenwood........................ 58 89 58 88 / 40 50 30 40 Chama........................... 45 77 46 78 / 20 40 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 55 77 56 78 / 20 50 10 60 Pecos........................... 51 76 51 78 / 30 60 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 78 49 78 / 30 50 10 50 Red River....................... 41 67 41 69 / 30 50 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 35 70 35 73 / 20 50 5 60 Taos............................ 47 80 48 81 / 20 40 10 40 Mora............................ 46 73 46 75 / 30 70 10 60 Espanola........................ 55 85 54 86 / 20 40 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 55 79 56 80 / 20 50 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 82 54 83 / 20 40 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 85 64 86 / 20 30 10 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 87 62 88 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 89 61 90 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 88 62 88 / 20 20 10 10 Belen........................... 60 88 59 89 / 20 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 60 88 60 89 / 20 30 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 58 88 59 89 / 20 20 10 10 Corrales........................ 61 89 61 90 / 20 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 60 88 60 89 / 20 20 10 10 Placitas........................ 59 83 59 85 / 20 30 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 60 88 61 88 / 20 20 10 10 Socorro......................... 63 89 63 90 / 30 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 79 54 81 / 20 40 10 30 Tijeras......................... 55 80 56 82 / 20 40 10 30 Edgewood........................ 52 80 51 83 / 20 30 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 82 49 83 / 20 30 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 52 75 53 77 / 30 40 10 20 Mountainair..................... 53 80 52 82 / 20 30 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 54 79 54 81 / 30 40 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 59 82 59 83 / 40 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 53 73 53 75 / 40 50 20 20 Capulin......................... 49 75 48 77 / 20 20 0 20 Raton........................... 49 79 48 80 / 20 30 0 30 Springer........................ 50 80 49 81 / 20 30 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 50 75 49 78 / 30 50 10 40 Clayton......................... 57 83 55 83 / 10 10 0 5 Roy............................. 53 79 52 80 / 30 30 5 20 Conchas......................... 59 85 58 86 / 40 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 57 82 56 84 / 40 40 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 57 83 55 84 / 30 10 5 0 Clovis.......................... 61 86 61 88 / 30 10 10 0 Portales........................ 60 87 60 89 / 30 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 84 60 87 / 40 20 10 0 Roswell......................... 63 86 62 89 / 60 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 58 81 56 84 / 50 30 10 10 Elk............................. 55 78 54 81 / 40 40 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16