Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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485 FXUS65 KABQ 261706 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1106 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Continued rises on area rivers and streams is expected today as runoff works its way through these systems, notably the Pecos River. - Another surge of monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances increase beginning late Sunday night and Monday, resulting in another stretch of increased flash flooding risk through Wednesday. - Isolated pockets of fog may return to valley areas of northern and western New Mexico tonight. Low visibility may lead to locally difficult travel. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 The current round of severe weather and heavy rains over portions of central and eastern NM looks to continue through the next several hours with overall activity continuing to progress into TX and weaken. Conditions calm in the wake of this activity Saturday morning with areas of fog likely developing within valley locations. This will burn off before mid-day most areas with a ridge of high pressure bringing a much needed break in stretch of monsoonal moisture. Highs will be pleasant for most, staying in the 60s in the mountains, 70s in middle elevations, and 80s across the eastern plains. Sunday sees the start of the next stretch of monsoonal moisture surging into the Desert Southwest. Global numerical model solutions continue to resolve a 569dm H5 closed low digging down the CA coastline. This feature will act to bring Hurricane Polo northward along the Baja coast. Increased shear and moisture riding up the Mogollon Rim will yield thunderstorms there Sunday afternoon that will favor tracking into western NM. Continuously increased shear ahead of the approaching H5 low will likely keep shower and thunderstorm activity going over the northwestern half of the state Sunday night into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A significant and potentially dangerous period of monsoon moisture and two merging storm systems over the Desert Southwest is favored to begin Monday. PWATs spike to 1.20", potentially higher 1.30+" by Tuesday. With a stout speedmax rotating around the southeastern portion of the 569dm H5 low, storm speeds across the area will be fast, with a few storms being capable of organizing and threatening some brief severe weather. Storms training over the same areas repeatedly will again threaten flash flooding Monday. Deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have come into very good agreement that the remnants of Hurricane Polo will absorb into the H5 low ahead of the system on its southeastern periphery Tuesday. This particularly dynamic will act to slow down the progress of the system writ large across AZ/NM. A period of widespread showers and thunderstorms across most of the state Monday night through Tuesday and Wednesday will be favored with this. Multi-day precipitation amounts would favor ranges of 1 to 4 inches across much of New Mexico Monday thru Wednesday. This will exacerbate current ongoing flooding recovery efforts next week. Further rises on area tributaries, streams, and rivers is expected. The H5 low continues across northern NM Thursday with precipitation favoring northeastern NM the longest thru Thursday evening before entirely clearing out of the area. Thereafter, more tranquil weather conditions are favored Friday and into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Any lingering low cloud patches this morning will clear thru noon. Cirrus will increase from west to east today while fair weather cumulus form around the higher terrain. There is a <15% for a shower or storm between KSRR and KROW later today. Cirrus will continue to thicken tonight with low chances for patchy fog in valleys of northern and western NM before sunrise Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 There are no fire weather concerns through the next week as abundant monsoonal moisture tracks across the state. Aside from today`s drier conditions, each day has notable shower and thunderstorm chances across the state. Main threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding, notably over recent burn scars. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 53 79 56 / 0 0 0 40 Dulce........................... 75 37 74 44 / 0 0 0 60 Cuba............................ 71 47 70 50 / 0 0 0 30 Gallup.......................... 76 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 50 El Morro........................ 73 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 40 Grants.......................... 74 48 75 52 / 0 0 0 40 Quemado......................... 75 48 75 52 / 0 0 5 30 Magdalena....................... 74 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 72 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Reserve......................... 80 49 80 52 / 0 0 10 30 Glenwood........................ 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 5 20 Chama........................... 68 41 68 45 / 5 0 0 60 Los Alamos...................... 70 50 70 54 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 74 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 47 71 49 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 67 33 68 38 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 68 32 68 36 / 0 0 0 20 Taos............................ 73 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 73 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 78 49 76 53 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 71 51 71 55 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 50 72 54 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 57 76 58 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 55 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 57 76 59 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 77 55 76 57 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 77 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 76 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 77 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 76 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 74 55 74 57 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 76 56 76 58 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 80 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 68 52 70 54 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 71 49 72 51 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 73 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 71 50 72 53 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 71 48 73 52 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 71 50 73 53 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 76 57 77 58 / 5 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 72 51 73 53 / 5 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 74 50 73 52 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 78 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 78 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 74 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 82 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 78 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 84 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 84 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 86 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 57 82 58 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 56 81 57 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 53 80 55 / 5 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42