262
FXUS65 KABQ 201202 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread
  heavy rain Tuesday through Wednesday night with a very good
  chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as
  some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon surge should continue at a less intense pace
  Thursday and Friday, when locally heavy rainfall will continue
  to be a threat as precipitation amounts generally trend downward
  with each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Drier air overspread the forecast area from the west over the
past 24 hours, so dry weather is forecast today and this evening.
The ground is probably moist enough in the central valley from
recent rainfall for some patchy fog and low clouds early this
morning, mainly from Espanola to Socorro, including Santa Fe and
Albuquerque. Otherwise, in the wake of the upper level trough that
swept through the central Rockies on Saturday, high temperatures
will cool a few degrees across much of the forecast area today,
except for as much as 8 degrees behind an early morning backdoor
cold front on the northeast and east central plains.

Late tonight and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will return to
the forecast for northeast areas and the eastern plains with the
arrival of a moist backdoor front. The front will begin producing
precip from Raton to Clayton after midnight tonight, then the
front will bank up against the east slopes of the central mountain
chain by midday Monday enabling scattered to isolated storms to
develop over eastern areas during the afternoon and evening.
Precip coverage is forecast to increase along and east of the
central mountain chain late Monday night into Tuesday morning as
an upper level low pressure system crossing the central CA coast
draws additional low-level moisture into NM from the east and
southeast. East wind gusts from 20-35 mph are forecast below
canyons opening into the central valleys from the east late Monday
night mainly around Santa Fe, Albuquerque, and Carrizozo. The
influx of low level moisture will probably also enable isolated
showers to develop late Monday night along the east slopes of the
western mountains, and across western parts of the Rio Grande
Valley where moist easterly upslope flow will develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture is forecast to produce
widespread heavy rainfall over the forecast area Tuesday through
Wednesday night with a very good chance for scattered occurrences
of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary
flooding. The aforementioned CA low pressure system and a mid-
level high pressure system parked over eastern TX will draw very
rich subtropical moisture mainly over southern, central, and
especially eastern parts of the forecast area; even as the upper
low opens into a trough while passing northeastward over the Great
Basin, central Rockies, and northern Rockies. GEFS Ensemble PWATs
spike 160-200% of normal by Tuesday through Wednesday night, with
near record (if not record) PWATs likely. The most likely rain
amount Tuesday through Wednesday night is currently forecast to be
3-4" from Ruidoso and Roswell northeastward to around Conchas
Lake; around 2-3" elsewhere along and east of the central mountain
chain and the lower Rio Grande Valley; around 0.5-1.5" across the
remainder of the Rio Grande Valley and continental divide; and
lighter amounts west of the continental divide. The NBM 90th
Percentile (serves as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes)
indicates a 10 percent chance that some parts of the eastern
plains will accumulate around 6-8" of rain, with 4-6" as far west
as the central mountain chain and lower Rio Grande Valley, and
2-3" elsewhere in the Rio Grande Valley and along the continental
divide.

Thursday and Friday, the high is forecast to remain in place over
eastern TX, while another upper level trough moves onshore over
the Pacific northwest, drawing additional monsoon moisture and
embedded disturbances northward over NM. Locally heavy rainfall
will continue to be a threat Thursday and Friday, especially given
the antecedent moisture by then, but rain amounts should trend
downward with each day.

On Saturday, scattered storms are still forecast, but the risk of
locally heavy rainfall looks to abate as drier air filters over
the forecast area from the west in response to the Pacific
northwest trough exiting east of the Canadian Rockies. Models vary
on where tropical storms in the eastern Pacific will go during
the latter half of next week, but they generally agree that
remnant moisture will remain south of NM.

Temperature-wise, except for some above average readings over
eastern areas today, highs across the forecast area this week
will vary from a few to several degrees below 30-year averages
with the coolest readings on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Early this morning, patches of fog and low clouds should produce
MVFR and localized IFR conditions in the central valley from
Espanola southward to Socorro, including the Albuquerque and Santa
Fe areas. The fog should burn off by mid morning. Dry weather is
forecast areawide this afternoon and evening. Late tonight, a
moist backdoor front is forecast to trigger isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms from Raton to Clayton and as
far south as northern Quay County. Low clouds behind the front
will probably also produce areas of IFR conditions late tonight
around Capulin, Des Moines, Clayton, Roy, and Logan.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

With drier air continuing to move over the fire weather forecast
area today, minimum humidities will drop near 15 percent in spots
from the northeast highlands to the east central plains.
Humidities will begin to rebound Monday. Therefore, the main fire
weather concerns will continue to be erratic thunderstorm outflow
from the central mountain chain eastward Monday afternoon and
evening, then areawide for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  47  79  53 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  77  36  78  39 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  74  46  74  50 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  76  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  71  45  71  48 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  75  47  74  51 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  72  49  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  76  53  75  57 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  72  50  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  80  50  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  85  57  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  70  39  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  73  50  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  78  47  77  51 /   0   0   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  74  45  74  48 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  64  38  65  40 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  71  41  70  39 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  76  41  76  44 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  77  45  74  48 /   0   0  10  40
Espanola........................  80  49  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  75  52  75  55 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  77  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  58  81  62 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  53  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  56  81  60 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  80  53  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  82  52  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  82  54  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  82  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  79  55  79  59 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  81  54  81  60 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  53  75  54 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  76  54  77  57 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  78  50  79  52 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  80  50 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  75  50  75  52 /   0   0   0  30
Mountainair.....................  76  50  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  76  51  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  82  59  84  60 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  78  54  77  54 /   0   0   5  20
Capulin.........................  77  50  70  50 /   0  30  30  30
Raton...........................  82  49  76  50 /   0  20  20  30
Springer........................  84  50  77  51 /   0  10  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  77  49  74  51 /   0   0   5  50
Clayton.........................  82  56  72  55 /   5  30  40  40
Roy.............................  82  55  73  54 /   0  10  20  40
Conchas.........................  90  60  81  59 /   0  10  10  40
Santa Rosa......................  86  57  79  59 /   0   0   5  40
Tucumcari.......................  86  60  79  58 /   0  10  30  50
Clovis..........................  90  59  84  59 /  10  10  50  50
Portales........................  90  60  85  60 /  10  10  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  90  58  86  61 /   5   0  10  50
Roswell.........................  92  61  90  64 /  10   0  10  50
Picacho.........................  87  59  85  59 /   5   0   5  30
Elk.............................  86  56  84  57 /  10   0   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
CORRECTED FORECASTER NUMBERS

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION.....44