Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
319 FXUS65 KABQ 080711 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 111 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over isolated portions of western and central NM this afternoon where thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall occur. - Patchy mist and fog along portions of the highlands from Las Vegas southward through Clines Corners, Corona to Ruidoso will produce pockets of low visibility this morning. - Off-and-on rounds of showers and thunderstorms over far western NM Thursday through the weekend will add up precipitation amounts resulting in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Cooler temperatures and abundant low-level moisture remains entrenched along and east of the central mountain chain tonight with low clouds and fog spreading across that half of the forecast area. East canyon winds pushing thru Tijeras Canyon has continued the influx of this airmass into the Rio Grande Valley. Coupled with thunderstorm activity seen earlier last evening, this could lead the way to patchy fog developing over portions of the ABQ Metro area, namely along the west mesa and Rio Rancho and down into the North Valley area by sunrise. Meanwhile sporadic shower and thunderstorm activity continues to progress eastward. One cluster from near Santa Fe to Clines Corners and another over Clovis will steadily taper off overnight as they move east toward or into TX. Otherwise, visibility from patchy dense fog in spots along the central highlands mainly from Las Vegas southward thru Clines Corners to Corona and Ruidoso will be the other thing to look out for thru the morning. Dense Fog Advisories may become necessary in some of those locations. Wednesday will see the beginning of an upper level high building from the southeast over southeastern NM. Low-level southeasterly flow will pushing moisture upslope into central NM will result in low clouds slow to erode across eastern NM. Clearer skies along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will allow for greater destabilization and thus convective activity by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms favoring development along the Continental Divide or even parts of the central mountain chain will steadily track northward filling into portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley thru Wednesday afternoon. With PWATs hovering near climatological maximums near 1.00", some of the stronger storms will threaten locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall from any one of these stronger storm cells remains across these areas along and and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to steadily wane Wednesday night, after which another round of low clouds and fog and mist could develop over portions of the central NM. Thursday continues to feature higher forecast confidence for the H5 ridge coalescing to a dome of high pressure centered over far west TX, while a tap of subtropical moisture funnels north and northeastward from Hurricane Priscilla mainly over AZ. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along the AZ border as a result Thursday afternoon. Central and eastern areas look to dry out and warm up. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Friday begins the long term with the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla continuing to funnel northward over the Desert Southwest, mainly AZ. A persistent round of showers and thunderstorms looks favored over AZ extending over the Four Corners and Navajo Nation area into northwestern NM. A marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from this persistent round of precipitation does extend into far northwestern NM Friday, continuing into Saturday. Three day rainfall totals from Friday thru Sunday across far western NM could add up to 1 to 2 inches in some locations. Sunday in particular continues to see global numerical models come into better agreement that a closed H5 low off the PacNW will open up to a trough and track west across the western CONUS. This will steadily shift shower and thunderstorm activity to the east across NM Sunday. A secondary wave of energy in the polar jet looks to close off to another H5 low off near the PacNW continuing southwesterly flow aloft over NM early next week. This will continue to tap subtropical moisture into the region with an active weather pattern of off-and-on precipitation chances early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Widespread low clouds producing MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility along and east of the central mountain chain remains tonight. Fog and mist will reduce visibility at many locations along the highlands just east of the central mountain chain as well. Sporadic showers and thunderstorms are still dotting a few locations near KSAF to K0E0 as well as near KCVN to KROW this hour. This activity is expected to slowly wane overnight into Wednesday morning. Some fog development within the Rio Grande Valley near KSAF to KABQ and KAEG is possible, but confidence is low regarding how much coverage there will be. Current thinking is that KAEG will be more susceptible to this compared to KABQ. Low clouds across eastern NM will be slow to erode Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will favor development along the Continental Divide and into portions of the Rio Grande Valley where PROB30s are included at KFMN-KGUP-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 No fire weather concerns through the next seven days. Cooler temperatures and higher moisture will be entrenched across eastern NM today. Otherwise, prevailing winds and humidity will remain notably outside critical fire weather thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 56 75 58 / 30 20 30 50 Dulce........................... 71 42 73 46 / 30 30 40 40 Cuba............................ 70 47 70 50 / 50 30 30 30 Gallup.......................... 77 49 72 50 / 30 30 40 40 El Morro........................ 71 49 68 50 / 40 30 40 30 Grants.......................... 71 48 70 50 / 50 30 40 30 Quemado......................... 74 49 71 50 / 50 30 30 20 Magdalena....................... 70 53 69 53 / 30 30 20 10 Datil........................... 68 48 67 50 / 50 40 30 20 Reserve......................... 77 49 76 50 / 40 30 20 20 Glenwood........................ 82 54 81 55 / 40 20 20 10 Chama........................... 65 42 68 45 / 40 20 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 66 50 68 53 / 30 20 30 20 Pecos........................... 66 47 69 50 / 40 30 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 46 71 49 / 20 10 20 20 Red River....................... 59 39 62 41 / 20 10 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 64 32 68 34 / 30 10 10 20 Taos............................ 70 45 72 47 / 20 20 10 20 Mora............................ 67 42 69 44 / 40 20 20 20 Espanola........................ 73 50 75 53 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 67 51 69 54 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 50 72 52 / 30 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 58 73 60 / 30 30 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 55 76 58 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 55 78 57 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 56 76 58 / 20 20 10 10 Belen........................... 77 53 78 55 / 20 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 76 55 76 57 / 20 20 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 76 53 77 55 / 20 20 10 10 Corrales........................ 76 55 77 57 / 20 20 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 76 54 77 56 / 20 20 10 10 Placitas........................ 71 54 72 56 / 30 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 75 55 75 57 / 20 20 10 10 Socorro......................... 77 58 79 58 / 30 20 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 50 68 51 / 40 30 20 20 Tijeras......................... 69 52 70 53 / 40 30 20 10 Edgewood........................ 68 48 70 49 / 40 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 47 72 47 / 50 30 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 65 47 69 49 / 40 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 69 48 71 50 / 30 30 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 69 48 71 49 / 40 30 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 72 54 74 53 / 40 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 64 49 66 48 / 40 20 10 5 Capulin......................... 67 47 72 50 / 10 5 5 5 Raton........................... 71 45 75 49 / 10 10 5 5 Springer........................ 72 47 76 50 / 10 10 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 65 47 69 48 / 30 20 10 5 Clayton......................... 71 55 78 57 / 10 5 5 5 Roy............................. 66 51 73 52 / 20 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 72 54 79 55 / 30 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 52 74 52 / 40 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 72 53 80 54 / 30 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 72 56 80 56 / 40 10 5 5 Portales........................ 75 56 80 57 / 40 10 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 71 55 77 55 / 40 10 5 5 Roswell......................... 76 59 80 57 / 30 10 5 5 Picacho......................... 71 54 75 52 / 30 20 5 5 Elk............................. 69 50 71 49 / 30 20 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24