287
FXUS65 KABQ 281749 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

- A backdoor cold front on Saturday will drop low temperatures
  into the teens and 20s overnight.

- Some slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the
  northern and west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

- Colder early next week with high temperatures slightly below
  average across western and central New Mexico and well below
  average across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

South-southeast return flow and low surface dewpoint depressions
will help result in the development of low clouds and patchy fog
across southeast NM around sunrise before burning off late this
morning as southwest flow mixes down to the surface. Mid and high
level clouds across the rest of the state will gradually exit east
during the day. 700 mb winds of 25 to 35 kts ahead of the
aforementioned trough over the northern Rockies along with the
development of a surface lee low over eastern CO and northeast NM
will result in some low end breezy conditions across the central
highlands and east central plains along the I-40 corridor. This west
and southwest flow will result in above average temperatures by
around 5 to 10 degrees areawide.

The upper level trough quickly moves southeast through the central
Rockies Friday night into Saturday morning and over the Great Plains
and north central U.S. Saturday. Some low clouds cannot be ruled out
in the lower Pecos River Valley near Roswell around sunrise
Saturday. A backdoor front will move through eastern NM during the
day Saturday in the wake of the trough. This front will cool
temperatures across northeast NM with highs on Saturday 3 to 12
degrees below average due to the front moving through this part of
the state earlier in the day. Peak north wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
near the TX border (i.e. Clayton, Clovis and Portales) behind the
backdoor front midday Saturday and early Saturday afternoon. Colder
air settles in, especially across eastern NM, Saturday night into
Sunday morning behind the backdoor front. Lows will be across the
teens to near 20 across north central, northeast and east central NM
and 20s across the rest of the lower elevations in the forecast
area. The backdoor front will push through the gaps of the central
mountain chain bringing a gusty southeast to east canyon gap wind to
Santa Fe, Albuquerque, and Carrizozo. Potential for max wind gusts
of around 30 to 35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1202 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sunday will be colder across eastern NM with highs around 15 degrees
below average due to continued CAA behind Saturday`s backdoor front.
Highs across central and western NM will be right around average. A
shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday dives
southeast across the central and southern Rockies Sunday evening
through midday Monday before exiting into the central Great Plains
Monday evening. This trough passage will result in some light snow
across the northern and west central high terrain after sunset
Sunday tapering off mid to late Monday morning. Mean snowfall
amounts across the Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
look to be just under advisory criteria (5") at this time since the
system will have limited moisture to work with. Clearing skies
midday Monday into Monday afternoon with colder temperatures across
western and central NM. Temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s
from most lower elevations, about 5 to 12 degrees below average. A
cold Monday night into Tuesday morning with widespread teens to mid
20s for low temperatures across lower elevations.

Temperatures rebound closer to normal, especially across eastern
NM, on Tuesday due to downslope westerly flow ahead of the next
upper level trough over the northern Rockies. Some breezy
conditions across the central highlands Tuesday afternoon.
Extended guidance shows this trough diving south over the Four
Corners area by late Wednesday into Thursday, with it potentially
closing off into a low over western AZ, southern NV and southern
CA according to the ECMWF and EC-AIFS. The result will be some low
precipitation chances favoring areas along and west of the
central mountain chain at this time. Temperatures look to cool
down to slightly below average values by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low clouds across eastern NM have largely dissipated late this
morning, though it will be possible for low clouds to redevelop
along the Pecos River Valley in the vicinity of KROW tonight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. High clouds will
continue to lessen in coverage from west to east today. Daytime
mixing will allow for a few westerly breezes this afternoon with
gusts mainly between 20 and 25kt. A shortwave trough will cross
northern NM overnight. Winds speeds will remain elevated across
mountain peaks with mountain wave activity expected along and east
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, especially the southern Sangre
de Cristo Mts. At lower elevations where winds will decouple, low
level wind shear will develop, including at KABQ, KAEG, KLVS and
KTCC. On Saturday morning, a backdoor cold front will shift into
NE NM with gusty north to northeast winds behind it. This front
will continue to slide southward through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid next
week. Mild with good to locally very good ventilation across the
higher terrain Friday. Colder across northeast New Mexico Saturday
behind a potent backdoor front with good ventilation across the
central and southern high terrain and eastern plains. Peak north
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph near the TX border. Colder across all of
eastern New Mexico Sunday with temperatures around 15 degrees below
normal. Good to very good ventilation across western, north central,
and northeast New Mexico. A storm system quickly sweeps the northern
part of the state Sunday night into Monday morning bringing some
light snow to the northern and west central high terrain Sunday
night into Monday morning. Good ventilation across central and
southern areas Monday afternoon. Temperatures warm up closer to
normal Tuesday cooling down to slightly below normal come Thursday
with generally poor ventilation for most areas. Some low
precipitation chances return to western and central areas late
Wednesday into Thursday from another storm system diving south into
the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  28  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  54  20  49  16 /   0   5   0   0
Cuba............................  55  26  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  57  23  53  18 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  27  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  59  24  54  20 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  59  27  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  61  34  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  58  30  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  64  26  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  68  29  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  49  20  43  17 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  53  32  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  53  30  51  19 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  51  26  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  43  23  36  14 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  49  22  43   9 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  54  24  47  17 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  57  29  49  16 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  59  29  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  32  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  54  29  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  37  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  32  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63  31  59  23 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  61  34  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  30  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  61  33  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  31  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  57  35  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  34  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  66  36  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  34  50  23 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  54  34  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  57  33  51  19 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  29  56  15 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  55  31  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  58  32  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  33  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  37  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  57  38  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  56  25  37  12 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  57  27  43  12 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  61  27  49  15 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  59  31  50  16 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  33  40  15 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  60  31  46  15 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  67  33  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  38  56  19 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  37  54  18 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  40  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  39  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  36  58  21 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  66  37  67  28 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  68  39  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  68  36  64  21 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34