333
FXUS65 KABQ 080835
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
235 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts
  of western and central New Mexico Monday and Tuesday will lead
  to potentially damaging downburst winds, patchy blowing dust,
  dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in
  an increasing risk for rapid fire spread each afternoon through
  Tuesday across far western New Mexico and across northeast New
  Mexico on Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday could producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Today will feature a range of hazards with scattered high-based
showers and dry storms producing downburst wind gusts >50 mph and
areas of blowing dust. An upper level trough entering the Great
Basin today will force a 65kt speed max into southwest NM while a
layer of mid and upper level moisture advects northward into the
area. Strong heating along with improving large scale ascent will
allow scattered high-based showers and dry storms to fire up along
the Cont Divide then move northeast around 15-25 mph into the RGV
by late afternoon. Large inverted-V profiles with DCAPE near 1000
J/kg, MLCAPE near 200 J/kg, lifted indices of 0 to -2C, and bulk
shear values of 20-30kt will support a few strong cells in terms
of downburst wind gusts. The 00Z HREF ensemble max wind gusts has
a few areas with peak gusts >60 mph between Grants, Socorro, and
the ABQ metro area. Blowing dust may prompt Dust Advisories along
with numerous Significant Weather Advisories for wind. Erratic
winds may persist well into the evening until high-based activity
tapers off around midnight. A few hi-res models support showers
holding on overnight with continued lift beneath the upper jet.

The focus shifts to improving low level moisture as return flow
deepens over southeast NM tonight. An area of low stratus will
form over the Permian Basin then attempt to shift northwest into
southeast NM by sunrise Tuesday. NBM ceiling probabilities haven`t
caught on to this area yet but HREF and NAM boundary layer fields
do show low clouds from near Roswell to Clovis. Deeper moisture
over eastern NM with improving directional shear/bulk shear and
abundant instability (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) will allow additional
showers and storms to fire up over the high plains of eastern NM.
This activity then tracks east/northeast into west TX by Tuesday
night. SPC has highlighted a small portion of northeast NM under a
`Marginal Risk` with potential expansion over a larger area from
later forecasts. Meanwhile, western NM will become very dry again
with breezy southwest winds. Fire starts will be monitored closely
given the dry lightning strike potential from today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Very dry zonal flow will spread over the entire area Wednesday as
the upper level trough exits the Front Range and high pressure
begins building over TX and northern MX. Breezy west winds and
humidity values as low as 5% will elevate the risk for additional
fire starts from any dry lightning on Tuesday. Max temps will also
soar with downsloping flow into eastern NM. The latest NBM probs for
max temps >104F (Heat Advisory) are between 50 and 60% within Chaves
County. MOS guidance has been waffling in the 103 to 106F range so
there`s a moderate chance for the first Heat Advisory of the year.

By Thursday, temps remain hot across eastern NM but there is some
uncertainty with northeast NM as a backdoor cold front moves in
from the plains. The ECMWF is the most aggressive bringing the
front thru faster with cooler temps for northeast NM while the
GFS waits til Thursday evening. As a result, NBM max temp spread
is high for northeast and east-central NM. Central and western NM
will still be hot regardless with very low humidity and slight
afternoon breezes.

The upper level ridge will continue building west over northern MX
into southern NM Friday and Saturday. Improving mid level moisture
also begins moving north into NM as a 50kt speed max moves northeast
across AZ. Extended guidance has another backdoor cold front moving
into eastern NM Saturday with additional low level moisture. This
may begin a period of improving precip chances over the region but
confidence is still low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Low level turbulence will persist over eastern NM tonight with
weak LLWS profiles. Partial clearing and light winds will prevail
elsewhere thru sunrise. Aviation impacts will develop across the
airspace after 1pm as scattered high-based virga showers and dry
storms form over western NM. This activity will move northeast
around 20KT into the Rio Grande Valley and northern high terrain
between 3pm and 6pm. Downburst wind gusts >45KT are possible from
the more developed showers and storms along with BLDU. Erratic
winds will persist over northern and central NM thru late evening
then partial clearing and lighter winds will return overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper level trough entering the Great Basin today will spread
breezy southwest winds and single digit minimum humidity into parts
of western NM. Critical fire weather is likely for a few hours
around Gallup where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Strong heating
today with deep mixing and sufficient mid level moisture will lead
to scattered high-based showers and dry storms from the Cont Divide
to the central mt chain this afternoon. Erratic downburst wind gusts
greater than 50 mph are likely from the stronger cells along with
potential for scattered dry storms within west-central NM.

Any dry strikes that occur today will be problematic for Tuesday as
southwest winds will trend even stronger with critical fire weather
expected along and west of the Cont Divide. A Red Flag Warning is
also in effect Tuesday. Meanwhile, the focus for scattered showers
and wet/dry storms will shift to central and eastern NM. Scattered
dry storms are possible near the central mt chain with wetter cells
farther east into eastern NM. The risk of more fire starts will
remain a concern by Wednesday as westerly winds have also trended
stronger with widespread single digit humidity (as low as 5%). A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the I-25 corridor of
northeast NM where there is greater confidence in dry fuels and
stronger winds.

Upper level high pressure will develop over TX and northern MX by
Thursday while a backdoor cold front slides into northeast NM. The
upper level high strengthens Friday and Saturday while drifting
west/northwest toward southern NM and AZ. This pattern may lead to
increasing moisture and higher chances for showers and storms over
parts of the area but confidence on storm coverage is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  57  94  57 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  88  47  87  45 /   0  10  20   0
Cuba............................  86  53  86  53 /  20  20  30   0
Gallup..........................  87  47  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  84  51  86  50 /  20  20  10   0
Grants..........................  88  52  89  53 /  20  20  10   0
Quemado.........................  86  52  87  51 /  20  20  10   0
Magdalena.......................  85  60  87  60 /  20  10  20   0
Datil...........................  83  56  85  55 /  30  20   5   0
Reserve.........................  90  51  92  49 /   0  10   5   0
Glenwood........................  94  54  97  53 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  81  45  80  44 /   0  20  40   5
Los Alamos......................  85  60  85  61 /  10  30  30   0
Pecos...........................  87  55  86  55 /   0  10  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  83  54  81  54 /   0  10  20  10
Red River.......................  74  45  73  46 /   0  20  20  10
Angel Fire......................  79  46  78  47 /   0   5  40   5
Taos............................  86  53  85  53 /   0  10  20  10
Mora............................  85  53  84  53 /   0  10  20   0
Espanola........................  93  58  92  58 /   0  20  20   5
Santa Fe........................  87  60  87  60 /   0  10  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  90  58 /   0  10  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  66  93  67 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  62  94  64 /   0  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  62  96  63 /   5  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  63  94  64 /   5  20  10   0
Belen...........................  95  59  96  61 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  95  63  95  64 /   0  20  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  95  59  96  61 /   0  10  10  10
Corrales........................  95  63  95  64 /   0  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  95  60  96  62 /   5  10   5  10
Placitas........................  91  64  92  65 /   0  10  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  94  63  94  64 /   5  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  97  67  98  67 /   5   5   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  60  88  61 /   0  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  89  59  89  60 /   0  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  90  57  90  59 /   0   5  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  53  91  56 /   0   5  10   0
Clines Corners..................  86  57  86  58 /   0   5  20   0
Mountainair.....................  89  56  90  58 /   0   5  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  89  58  89  59 /   0   5  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  92  67  93  66 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  62  85  61 /   0   0  20   0
Capulin.........................  86  54  85  52 /   0   5  40   5
Raton...........................  90  54  89  52 /   0   0  30   5
Springer........................  91  55  90  55 /   0   0  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  88  56  87  55 /   0   5  20  10
Clayton.........................  95  63  93  62 /   0   0  20  20
Roy.............................  91  59  89  58 /   0   5  40  20
Conchas.........................  99  65  96  64 /   0   5  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  95  62  92  62 /   0   5  40  20
Tucumcari....................... 100  69  98  67 /   0   5  20  30
Clovis..........................  99  66  95  66 /   0   0   5  20
Portales........................  99  67  96  66 /   0   0   5  20
Fort Sumner..................... 100  67  95  65 /   0   5  20  20
Roswell......................... 100  69  98  69 /   0   0   5   5
Picacho.........................  94  63  93  62 /   0   0  40   5
Elk.............................  93  62  92  62 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-105.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ105.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NMZ123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42