Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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694 FXUS65 KABQ 091126 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 - Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico, especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are expected through Monday over central and western New Mexico. - Limited afternoon thunderstorm activity continues today and Monday, slowly increasing through the rest of the week. Risk of flash flooding returns to central and western New Mexico late next week. - Smoke from wildfires across the western United States may continue to impact air quality across parts of New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 00Z RAOBs showed the H5 ridge centered near the Four Corners has weakened slightly to near 598dm. Surface dewpoints have fallen into the 30s and low 40s over central and western NM with PWATs below normal for most of NM. 00Z models show the H5 ridge drifting east- southeast into north-central NM today and Monday while weakening to near 596dm. A 30kt speed max on the eastern periphery of the ridge will shift south into southeast NM today then west into southern NM Monday while strengthening to near 40kt. Subtle changes will begin today as the jet forcing starts to improve lift and induce mid level pressure falls and deformation over northern and western NM. Storm coverage will increase today and moreso Monday but most activity will still produce small footprints with rainfall >0.25". The dry low level airmass will increase the risk for downburst wind gusts >50 mph along with more wildfire starts from lightning in dry fuels. High temps will remain above normal today with another Heat Advisory for the Four Corners region. Max temps will tick down 1 to 3 degrees Monday with a low chance for more Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 More noticeable changes are expected to begin by Tuesday as a much larger pattern shift currently unfolding across the Pacific Ocean impacts the monsoon circulation across the southwest CONUS. The aforementioned speed max will continue progressing northwest from AZ into the Great Basin Tuesday while a subtle H5 trough deepens along the U.S. West Coast thru Wednesday. The monsoon plume will begin to stand up over AZ and western NM as 700-500mb layer flow becomes more southerly and the H5 high center migrates east toward TX. The latest 00Z ECMWF has trended more bullish again with a robust monsoon burst pattern over the region Tuesday thru Saturday. Each day will be a different flavor but the risk for storms with locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will increase over the region. Temps will also trend closer to normal which will feel pleasant compared to the brutal heatwave that has plagued the area since late July. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 SHRA/TS will form over the northern and western high terrain between 1pm and 4pm today. This activity will move erratically south and west into nearby lowlands thru sunset. Brief rain, downburst wind gusts >40KT, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with the stronger cells. A few light showers may linger along and west of the central mt chain thru 3am with gradual clearing thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Very hot and dry conditions will persist thru Monday with minimum humidity falling below 15% over parts of northern and western NM. Fortunately, winds will be light outside of thunderstorm outflows. Wetting rainfall footprints will be small today and Monday. The main concern is more wildfire starts from lightning in dry fuels. The coverage of showers and storms is likely to increase starting Tuesday with larger footprints of heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. An active monsoon pattern may continue thru the end of the week as high pressure shifts east of NM and abundant moisture surges north into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 66 98 66 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 97 55 96 55 / 0 0 10 10 Cuba............................ 94 61 95 61 / 5 5 5 40 Gallup.......................... 94 61 93 60 / 10 10 10 20 El Morro........................ 89 58 89 57 / 30 10 40 30 Grants.......................... 93 61 93 61 / 30 10 20 30 Quemado......................... 90 60 90 60 / 30 30 20 40 Magdalena....................... 90 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 10 Datil........................... 87 59 87 59 / 40 20 30 10 Reserve......................... 95 58 95 58 / 20 20 30 10 Glenwood........................ 98 64 99 62 / 20 20 40 10 Chama........................... 90 54 90 54 / 10 0 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 92 65 91 64 / 20 10 30 40 Pecos........................... 92 59 93 59 / 20 20 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 91 58 91 57 / 10 5 20 20 Red River....................... 86 48 86 48 / 10 10 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 86 43 87 44 / 20 10 40 20 Taos............................ 95 58 96 58 / 10 5 20 20 Mora............................ 91 55 90 55 / 30 10 30 20 Espanola........................ 99 65 99 65 / 10 5 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 94 63 95 63 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 70 98 70 / 10 10 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 70 98 70 / 10 10 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 68 100 69 / 5 10 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 70 99 70 / 10 10 5 20 Belen........................... 99 67 99 68 / 0 10 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 101 68 101 69 / 10 10 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 99 66 99 66 / 0 10 0 10 Corrales........................ 101 69 101 69 / 10 10 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 99 66 99 67 / 0 10 0 10 Placitas........................ 95 68 96 68 / 10 10 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 5 20 Socorro......................... 100 71 101 71 / 0 10 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 63 91 63 / 10 20 10 30 Tijeras......................... 94 64 94 65 / 10 20 10 30 Edgewood........................ 95 61 96 61 / 10 20 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 57 97 58 / 20 30 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 92 61 93 62 / 20 30 10 30 Mountainair..................... 93 62 94 62 / 5 20 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 62 / 0 30 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 93 66 94 68 / 5 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 87 60 88 61 / 10 0 20 0 Capulin......................... 92 60 91 59 / 10 10 30 20 Raton........................... 95 57 95 57 / 10 5 20 20 Springer........................ 98 57 98 58 / 20 5 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 94 58 93 58 / 20 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 99 68 98 68 / 10 5 0 5 Roy............................. 95 64 94 64 / 10 20 5 5 Conchas......................... 102 69 101 70 / 5 10 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 97 67 96 68 / 5 10 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 101 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 99 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 99 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 99 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 99 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 96 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 93 60 95 62 / 0 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42