655
FXUS65 KABQ 290741
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
141 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain
  chain through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty
  and erratic winds can be expected.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-
  related illnesses across eastern NM for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The upper high center is still on track to shift eastward today,
though the high will also elongate from central NM to eastern OK.
Fortunately, it should also weaken a decameter or two by this
afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough near the CA coast
will allow south to southwesterly flow to return to AZ and western
NM. Though ideally we don`t want to see the ridge axis still over
NM, the flow should be sufficient for PWATs to climb to near
0.90" across western and central NM. Storms will again initiate
over the mountains, with the southwest mountains being favored in
the afternoon and northwest NM seeing more action in the evening
as storms move in from AZ. A few storms will also develop across
the south central mountains and near the Sangre de Cristo Mtns.
The Salt burn scar seems to be favored again today, but
precipitation amounts via the CAMs are not very robust. Storm
motion will be toward the northeast or east around 5 to 15 mph for
most areas, except across the south central mtns where storm
motion will be light and variable. Storms across the southwest
mountains should move toward the ABQ metro around rush hour this
evening. Though precipitation amounts look paltry, confidence is
high that at least one strong outflow will push through the metro
area. This boundary may kick up dust and reduce visibility for an
hour or so. If we`re lucky, we`ll also get some isolated storms to
develop, but CAMs are not enthusiastic about this potential.

Models are hinting that a vort max will shift northward from MX
this evening and overnight across western NM, keeping showers and
a few thunderstorms persisting well into the overnight hours. The
debris clouds will linger well into Sunday and should result in a
slower start for the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
Nonetheless, by mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will
initiate over the high terrain of western NM. Storm motion will be
a little faster on Sunday afternoon, generally toward the
northeast around 10 to 20 mph. PWATs may trend up a little bit
more, but overall will be similar to Saturday. Flooding will favor
any areas that see repeated rounds of precipitation. Also much
like Saturday, gusty outflow winds may push into the Rio Grande
Valley, kicking up dust in the process.

While western NM is benefiting from rainfall and cooler
temperatures, eastern NM will be hot through the weekend. Triple
digit heat and near-record temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The upper high continues to shift eastward on Monday and while the
ridge axis will still have a grip on NM, it will be weaker
overall. Models are indicating another vort max will shift
northward across AZ Sunday night and move into NW NM early Monday.
However, a few models suggest the vort max will be delayed a bit
later, and enter western NM Monday afternoon. If it arrives later,
the extra lift provided from this feature would allow for a few
stronger storms with higher rain rates. After rainfall the
previous two days and wetter soils, high rainfall rates could lead
to flooding. However, one big mitigating factor will be the storm
motions, which will be even higher than on Sunday. Storm motion
will be toward the north or northeast around 15 to 25 mph. If the
vort max arrives in the morning, the early morning precipitation
and cloud cover would limit destabilization and result in fewer
and weaker storms overall.

On Tuesday, much drier air looks to push into western NM which will
weaken and disrupt the moisture plume. Enough moisture will
remain in place to recycle in the form of showers and
thunderstorms over most high terrain areas but PWATs around
0.6-0.8" will limit any flooding potential. It also continues to
look like a new upper high will develop near the NM/MX border or
the upper high to the east will elongate back westward by
Wednesday and H5 heights will continue to rise through Friday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each
afternoon over the high terrain, but overall will be a meager crop
of convection. Temperatures will trend back upward across western
NM and stay around 10 degrees above normal across eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A few light showers persist across western NM late this evening.
Scattered convection across eastern AZ may move into NW NM
overnight, but thunderstorms would be few and far between as radar
depicts convection is on the downtrend. Mid level clouds will not
completely clear out before Saturday afternoons crop of showers
and thunderstorms begin. Storms should develop shortly after 18Z
and will favor areas along and west of the Central Mtn Chain, with
the most numerous coverage across the southwest mountains. Storm
motion will be toward the northeast or east around 5 to 15 kt.
Brief heavy rainfall may reduce visibility. Strong outflows may
kick up dust, including in the Rio Grande Valley (ABQ/AEG TAFs)
toward evening which may also reduce visibility. Outflow wind
gusts of 30 to 40kt are likely. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist across portions of western NM through
the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week. A monsoon moisture plume will focus over AZ and western NM
through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along
and west of the Central Mountain Chain, with locally heavy
rainfall and gusty and erratic winds likely. Lightning may still
start new fires in pockets of dry fuels. The cloud cover and
rainfall will allow temperatures to fall below normal by Monday.
Meanwhile, eastern NM will remain quite warm with high
temperatures just shy of records for this time of year. The
moisture plume will be disrupted Tuesday and storm coverage
Tuesday through Friday will be rather meager and focused on the
high terrain. Gusty outflows will be the main concern through this
period, but a few spots could see brief heavy rainfall.
Temperatures will warm back to near or above normal across western
NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  62  86  60 /  20  40  30  40
Dulce...........................  88  52  84  51 /  20  50  30  40
Cuba............................  87  58  82  57 /  20  30  30  50
Gallup..........................  89  56  83  53 /  20  40  50  50
El Morro........................  85  54  80  53 /  30  30  50  40
Grants..........................  88  57  83  55 /  30  30  50  50
Quemado.........................  86  57  81  56 /  50  40  60  40
Magdalena.......................  88  63  84  61 /  40  30  50  30
Datil...........................  85  57  81  56 /  40  30  60  50
Reserve.........................  91  57  87  57 /  20  20  50  40
Glenwood........................  96  62  92  60 /  20  20  30  30
Chama...........................  82  52  78  51 /  20  50  30  30
Los Alamos......................  87  62  83  60 /  30  30  40  40
Pecos...........................  88  58  86  57 /  10  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  84  56  81  55 /  20  20  20  20
Red River.......................  75  49  72  47 /  20  20  20  20
Angel Fire......................  81  44  78  42 /  20  20  20  20
Taos............................  89  57  86  55 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  85  55  83  54 /  20  20  30  20
Espanola........................  93  63  89  61 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  89  61  86  60 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  92  60  89  59 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  68  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
Belen...........................  97  65  93  64 /  10  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  96  67  92  65 /  10  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  97  64  93  62 /  10  20  20  20
Corrales........................  96  67  92  66 /  10  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  97  64  93  63 /  10  30  20  30
Placitas........................  93  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  95  68  91  66 /  10  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  98  69  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  61  86  60 /  10  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  90  63  88  61 /  10  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  91  60  89  58 /  10  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  57  90  55 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  88  60  87  58 /  10  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  90  60  88  58 /  10  20  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  89  59 /  10  10  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  92  66  92  65 /   5   5   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  84  60  84  59 /  30  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  89  58  88  57 /  20  20  10  20
Raton...........................  92  56  90  55 /  20  20  20  20
Springer........................  95  57  93  56 /  20  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  89  57  88  56 /  10  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  97  68  97  66 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  93  62  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Conchas......................... 102  70 101  68 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  98  67  97  66 /  10  10  10  20
Tucumcari....................... 102  71 101  70 /   0   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  98  68  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  99  69 100  68 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner..................... 100  70 100  69 /   0   5   0  10
Roswell......................... 101  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  95  65  95  64 /  10   5   5  10
Elk.............................  90  62  91  61 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34