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FXUS65 KABQ 281743 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide this afternoon
  through Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings
  widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms.

- River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying
  farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers
  may experience minor flooding.

- Gusty winds upwards of 25 to 45 mph mainly over southeast New
  Mexico through Tuesday will threaten downed trees in saturated
  soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The potentially dangerous and life threatening flash flood risk
still has multiple factors aligning to impact much of New Mexico
beginning Monday afternoon, peaking Tuesday, and lasting into
Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch for the western half of the state
remains in effect beginning 12pm MDT Monday, with another for the
eastern half of the state beginning 6pm MDT Monday. Both currently
last to 6am MDT Wednesday morning with possible longer extensions as
needed. Many areas will see 48-hour rainfall totals of 1-3 inches by
Wednesday afternoon, with locally high-end amounts upwards of 4 to
5+ inches. Low-lying and poorly drained areas, urban areas and
arroyo systems, near river banks, recent burn scars will the most
susceptible to flash flooding. Now is the time to make sure you have
multiple ways of receiving any warnings issued, and be weather
aware.

GOES satellite imagery is resolving the first wave of moisture from
the ghostly remnants of TS Odalys being squeezed northeastward over
AZ with some light showers over eastern AZ evident on radar. SW-NE
oriented lines of showers with a few embedded fast moving
thunderstorms will continue to spread over the Four Corners region
late tonight into Monday morning. Increasing shear and divergent
flow aloft east of the approaching 565dm H5 low over SoCAL will
increase will increase the coverage of embedded thunderstorms over
the northwestern third of the state. These areas mainly along and
west of the Continental Divide, including places from Grants to
Gallup to Farmington and Navajo Nation will see a peak in flash
flood risk Monday afternoon before the line of more intense
precipitation shifts eastward to the Rio Grande Valley Monday
evening. The latest 00Z suite of HiRes CAMs are in fair agreement
for the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and
potentially northward to Taos will see their first wave of peak
precipitation intensities and flash flood risk Monday evening.
Afternoon driven convection favoring development over southwestern
NM looks to push northward into Socorro County with northward driven
outflow boundaries favorably invigorating convection along the
aforementioned SW-NE oriented line of showers pushing to the Rio
Grande Valley and central mountain chain during this time.
Precipitation intensity looks to lessen near or just past midnight
for this area while this wave of showers continues across eastern NM
through Tuesday morning.

Thereafter, Tuesday sees the remnant but still intact moisture core
of Polo move ashore northwestern Mexico while the H5 low spins to
its north over central AZ. How Polo`s remnants merge with this H5
low is still subtly uncertain over NM. Current numerical model
guidance ranges in the core of Polo`s moisture plume tracking either
over south-central and central NM from El Paso to T or C up to ABQ
and Santa Fe -OR- moving more toward south-central and southeastern
NM impacting El Paso to Roswell to Clovis. Either track favors a
timing of Tuesday afternoon and evening for the most intense
precipitation. Neither track bodes well for the Ruidoso burn scars
unfortunately. The combination of record level moisture (highlighted
by PWAT climbing to 1.20" to 1.40", favorable atmospheric dynamics
highlighted by strong shear and divergent flow aloft continues the
high confidence for a period of high rainfall rates where this plume
of moisture goes. The current timing of Tuesday evening and night
into Wednesday morning also does not bode well given the threat of
night time flash flooding. One perhaps favorable factor is the speed
at which Polo`s moisture plume will be moving, keeping the period of
heavier precipitation to within a ~3hr window for most locations it
tracks over. A secondary hazard Tuesday afternoon and evening will
be stronger winds near the surface circulation center. While not
notably strong by New Mexico standards, the combination of already
saturated soils being pounded on by more rain will make it easier
for these gusty winds to knock down trees and create hazardous
crosswinds for some high profile vehicles alongside lower
visibility.

While precipitation looks to continue over northwestern NM, due to
the forecast track of Polo`s remnants favoring the southeastern half
of the state, flash flooding risk looks to lower a bit for the Four
Corners region by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Wednesday morning begins the final phase of this torrential downpour
event as numerical model solutions look to bring a dry slot punching
in behind the remnants of Polo, favoring the southern half of the
state. Notable uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics around how
Polo is absorbed into the H5 low over NM, either fully merging with
the low over northern NM or being ejected out over the High Plains.
How exactly this melding of systems plays will determine when
precipitation comes to an end for any one location. However it plays
out, it can be said that wrap-around moisture will favor ongoing
lower intensity showers over at least the northern half of NM
Wednesday, potentially lasting over western NM as long as Thursday
morning. Conditions looks to steadily clear west to east over the
state Thursday, with precipitation lasting over eastern NM as late
as Friday morning.

The weekend finally arrives with clearer conditions and remnant
high level moisture remaining in the form of higher humidity.
River flooding and morning areas of fog are likely to linger over
the state during this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Conditions will deteriorate across the entire airspace over the
next 12 to 24 hours. A large area of rain and storms will move
slowly east across NM today and tonight. There are very high
probabilities that cigs will lower to MVFR from west to east
toward the RGV thru 8PM. Lcl IFR vsbys may occur in the heaviest
rainfall. MVFR cigs will expand eastward into eastern NM thru
sunrise Tuesday while IFR cigs develop over the rest of northern,
central, and western NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fire weather will not be applicable and is entirely irrelevant
through the next 48-72 hours as a historic surge of moisture surges
thru the state from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Drier conditions
behind a cold front return Thursday into Friday, with abundant
moisture and higher humidity lingering thru next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  52  64  51 / 100  90  60  90
Dulce...........................  61  46  60  44 / 100 100  70  90
Cuba............................  68  49  58  44 /  80 100  90  90
Gallup..........................  66  48  59  43 /  90 100 100  90
El Morro........................  68  47  57  41 /  90 100 100  90
Grants..........................  70  51  58  44 /  90 100 100 100
Quemado.........................  72  52  59  43 /  80 100 100  90
Magdalena.......................  73  55  59  47 /  60 100 100  90
Datil...........................  70  52  57  43 /  90 100 100  80
Reserve.........................  73  54  62  47 /  80 100 100  90
Glenwood........................  77  58  66  51 /  90 100 100  90
Chama...........................  57  45  56  42 /  90 100  80  90
Los Alamos......................  70  52  58  47 /  40 100  90 100
Pecos...........................  70  52  60  47 /  10 100 100 100
Cerro/Questa....................  65  48  58  44 /  20 100  90 100
Red River.......................  62  43  53  38 /  20 100 100 100
Angel Fire......................  64  44  56  38 /  20 100 100 100
Taos............................  69  49  60  45 /  20 100  90 100
Mora............................  68  50  59  46 /  10 100 100 100
Espanola........................  75  55  63  50 /  20 100  90 100
Santa Fe........................  71  53  59  48 /  20 100  90 100
Santa Fe Airport................  74  54  61  49 /  30 100  90 100
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  57  62  50 /  40 100 100 100
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  58  64  52 /  40 100 100 100
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  59  65  53 /  50 100 100 100
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  58  64  52 /  50 100 100 100
Belen...........................  81  59  65  53 /  40 100 100  90
Bernalillo......................  79  58  64  52 /  40 100 100 100
Bosque Farms....................  81  58  65  52 /  40 100 100 100
Corrales........................  80  58  64  52 /  50 100 100 100
Los Lunas.......................  81  59  64  53 /  40 100 100 100
Placitas........................  77  56  62  50 /  40 100 100 100
Rio Rancho......................  79  58  62  51 /  50 100 100 100
Socorro.........................  81  60  65  53 /  40 100 100  90
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  53  57  46 /  40 100 100 100
Tijeras.........................  74  55  61  48 /  40 100 100 100
Edgewood........................  75  54  61  48 /  20 100 100 100
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  54  62  48 /  20 100 100 100
Clines Corners..................  74  53  61  47 /   5 100 100 100
Mountainair.....................  75  54  61  47 /  10 100 100 100
Gran Quivira....................  76  55  61  49 /  10 100 100 100
Carrizozo.......................  78  59  67  53 /   5  90 100 100
Ruidoso.........................  73  56  64  49 /   5  90 100 100
Capulin.........................  71  53  63  49 /   0  80 100 100
Raton...........................  74  54  65  50 /   0 100  90 100
Springer........................  76  56  67  52 /   0  90  90 100
Las Vegas.......................  72  53  62  49 /   0 100 100 100
Clayton.........................  79  58  69  57 /   0  50 100 100
Roy.............................  75  56  66  53 /   0  80 100 100
Conchas.........................  84  62  72  59 /   0  80 100 100
Santa Rosa......................  81  60  70  57 /   0  90 100 100
Tucumcari.......................  84  64  75  60 /   0  70 100 100
Clovis..........................  82  62  74  59 /   0  60 100  90
Portales........................  84  64  76  60 /   0  60  90  90
Fort Sumner.....................  84  63  75  60 /   0  80 100 100
Roswell.........................  86  64  78  61 /   0  60  90  90
Picacho.........................  80  61  71  55 /   0  80 100  90
Elk.............................  76  59  69  52 /   0  80 100  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ201>211-213-214-
216>221-224>226-241.

Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late Tuesday
night for NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42