Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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745 FXUS65 KABQ 150850 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 250 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 250 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph across eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible around the southern high terrain, which could contribute to new fire starts. - Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas today through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures. Major heat risk may impact the middle Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains. - Gusty west winds will return on Tuesday. The dry and gusty conditions may allow any recent wildfires that were started by lightning to grow rapidly, especially over western New Mexico where fuels are very dry. Smoke may also reduce air quality. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 236 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 A sprawling 594dm H5 high over eastern AZ and western NM Saturday evening will build to near 596dm around Socorro County today. Meager mid level moisture over southern NM will seep northward under the high today and lead to greater chances of high-based showers and dry storms mainly south of I-40. Activity east of the central mt chain may be able to squeeze out some measurable precip. However, the main threat with all of this activity will be downburst wind gusts >50 mph given DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg and surface humidity below 10%. Max temps today will be sizzling with low elevation areas in the mid 90s to low 100s. The Heat Advisory was expanded to the San Francisco River Valley today. Smoke from wildfires over southwest NM may also begin to make skies hazy for parts of the area today given the robust fire activity on Saturday. Mid level cloud cover will be slow to erode this evening which will help keep temps hot through the evening. Monday will feature much less cloud cover as the upper level high breaks down ahead of an approaching upper trough. An exceptionally dry airmass will spread into all of central and western NM ahead of this trough on breezy southwest to west winds. Compressional heating with downslope flow into the RGV and high plains of eastern NM will lead to even greater coverage of max temps in the low to mid 100s Monday. The Heat Advisory was extended thru Monday for the same areas as today. A couple gusty showers cannot be ruled out over the Sacramento Mts and nearby Chaves County but most areas will be dry. The one area that may be able to squeeze out measurable rainfall will be Union County as a moist low level boundary sags west into the area. More smoke may impacts parts of the area on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The upper level ridge of heat will begin to flatten as a shortwave trough ejects into the central Rockies on Tuesday. While H5 pressure heights decrease below 590 dm, it will still be quite hot throughout the Land of Enchantment. Temperatures in central and western New Mexico look to cool a few degrees from Monday`s readings, but widespread 90s are still expected across western areas, and the Rio Grande Valley will be flirting with 100s once again. The trough passage will usher in some stronger and drier WSW flow. Most recent guidance has actually trended down for wind speeds on Tuesday afternoon, lowering confidence for widespread 20 kt winds and creating a trickier fire weather forecast. Conditions will be dry as relative humidity values drop into the low single digits. Flow at 700mb still looks to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, so daytime heating should be able to mix down some stronger winds aloft during the afternoon, particularly in the central highlands and eastern plains where gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. The main limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions in western New Mexico will be wind speeds. However, southwestern New Mexico has seen very little moisture over the last few months, so fuels are primed and conditions are dry for burning. If the Buck Fire and Trout Fire are are any indication of current conditions, it shows that rapid fire spread will still be possible even if winds remain below 20 kts on Tuesday. On the other side of the state, downsloping compressional warming will contribute to near record high temperatures. Recent guidance has once again trended up, and while there is already very high confidence for widespread 100s along there eastern plains, its becoming more likely that the southeast plains may reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110 F). With warm WSW winds expected over the area, Roswell is currently forecast to tie a record high of 110 for Tuesday, June 17. One-hundred degree temperatures could extend as far north as Quay county, with some ensembles showing a low chance (<20%) for even Clayton to reach triple digits. However, the timing of a backdoor cold front will muddy the waters on the temperature forecast for northeast New Mexico. Have opted to go on the `cooler` side (mid to low 90s), expecting the backdoor front to begin pushing through Union county during the late afternoon. Some increased cloud cover and thunderstorms may also form along the front in far northeast New Mexico during the afternoon. The backdoor front will push through the rest of the east plains during the overnight hours and into the early morning on Wednesday, cooling temperatures to near or even below average in some areas. The backdoor front will replenish some moisture for areas along and east of the central mountain chain. Then, another high pressure ridge begins to build once again over the southwestern United States, warming up temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average for Thursday and Friday. Increased southerly flow will begin to push up some greater moisture from the gulfs, which may lead to some virga showers and dry thunderstorms along the high terrain. This southerly flow may also push up some smoke from fires in Catron and Grant counties north towards the ABQ metro. For the end of the long term period on Sunday, models are hinting at a deepening Pacific trough interacting with some rich tropical moisture, creating some wetter and stormier conditions throughout the state. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 SKC and light winds thru Sunday morning will give way to a larger crop of SHRA/TS with strong downburst winds Sunday afternoon. The stronger cells will be capable of brief rain, lightning strikes, and wind gusts in excess of 40KT. Storms will initiate around the southern and central high terrain around 1pm then move slowly east and southeast across the eastern plains thru sunset. Mid level clouds will slowly dissipate Sunday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Very dry and hot conditions will continue today with strengthening upper level high pressure over the region. Widespread near-record high temps will occur with single digit humidity and near-maximum solar radiation. Any fire activity is likely to be robust again today with steep lapse rates and abnormally high mixing heights. The coverage of high-based showers and dry storms is also likely to increase today with slightly better mid level moisture seeping north into the upper level near Socorro. This activity will be capable of producing erratic downburst wind gusts >50 mph. The upper level ridge will break down beginning Monday with winds trending stronger over western NM. Elevated critical fire weather conditions are possible with even more widespread single digit humidity over the region. Dry storm coverage will be less. Upper level low pressure will cross the southern Rockies Tuesday with widespread breezy west winds and minimum humidity below 5% in several areas. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are highly likely. The area of strongest winds is expected over east- central and northeast NM where ERC values are lowest while the marginally strong winds are in the west where ERC values are the highest. Guidance trended a tad lighter on winds overall so these trends will need to be closely watched. Numerous dry lightning strikes over the past week may end up as new fire starts in this pattern. A backdoor cold front is still expected to move southeast into eastern NM Tuesday night while the upper level ridge builds north over NM once again. This will allow for increasing chances of high- based showers and dry storms along and east of the central mt chain Wednesday thru Friday, along with increasing temps. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 97 58 97 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 92 46 91 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 56 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 94 50 94 50 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 56 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 95 53 95 51 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 92 58 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 95 64 95 62 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 92 59 92 56 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 100 53 100 51 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 105 59 105 58 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 86 50 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 90 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 90 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 85 42 82 46 / 5 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 84 40 84 38 / 5 5 0 0 Taos............................ 92 50 91 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 52 89 53 / 5 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 97 58 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 92 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 59 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 69 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 68 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 103 64 103 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 67 101 67 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 101 62 102 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 101 64 102 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 101 61 102 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 102 65 102 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 101 63 102 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 97 67 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 100 66 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 104 69 105 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 96 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 94 56 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 52 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 93 59 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 94 59 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 97 65 98 68 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 90 63 91 64 / 20 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 85 53 89 55 / 20 20 10 0 Raton........................... 91 51 94 53 / 20 10 5 0 Springer........................ 92 51 95 53 / 20 10 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 91 53 92 56 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 90 61 97 63 / 10 20 10 0 Roy............................. 90 56 94 58 / 20 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 97 62 102 64 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 95 61 99 65 / 10 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 99 64 102 67 / 5 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 99 66 102 70 / 10 20 0 0 Portales........................ 100 64 103 70 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 100 63 103 67 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 105 70 107 71 / 20 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 98 64 99 68 / 20 0 10 0 Elk............................. 97 63 97 64 / 20 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ209-219-220-238. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ209-219-220- 238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...42