093
FXUS65 KABQ 052030
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly along
  and near the high terrain.

- A high risk of flash flooding is forecast on the Ruidoso burn
  scars this afternoon.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The broad upper high over the south central U.S. has somewhat
consolidated into a 593 dam high at 500 mb from Missouri southwest
to El Paso. Showers and thunderstorms are favoring the southern and
central mountain ranges along with some isolated popcorn storms
across northeast NM and the Caprock due to being under a plume of
monsoon moisture of PWATS between 1 to 1.4 inches. With the upper
high somewhat overhead storm motion will be more slow and erratic
initially before generally drifting to the north-northeast later in
the afternoon. Storm coverage will peaking mid afternoon moving into
the nearby highlands and lower elevations before tapering off early
to mid this evening around sunset. As always, storms will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
across burn scars (currently the case for Ruidoso as of 12:30 PM
MDT) and poor drainage/low lying areas.

The 592 to 593 dam upper high at 500 mb will be centered somewhere
between Tucumcari and Dalhart Sunday. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will once again get going across the western and
central high terrain midday with an overall storm motion north-
northwest. Storm motion across the Sacramento Mountains Sunday
afternoon should help direct storms west and away from the Ruidoso
burn scars, so for that reason a Flash Flood Watch has not been
issued for Sunday afternoon. CAMs also show some isolated popcorn
storms with slow and erratic motion on the Caprock and across
northeast NM under the upper high circulation. Colliding outflow
boundaries from storms across the west central and south central
mountains and across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains look to result
in isolated to scattered storm development across the middle and RGV
Sunday evening. Once again, any storm will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in low lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas. Storms taper off around sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Highs both today and tomorrow will be warm
and near normal across lower elevations of western NM to hot and 5
to 12 degrees above normal across lower elevations of central and
eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the
northern Rockies Monday shifting the upper high east to over the
central and southern Great Plains. The position of these two upper
level features will help position the monsoon plume from southwest
to northeast NM. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor
the western and central mountains with an overall storm motion to
the northeast at 10 to 20 mph trying to move in nearby lower
elevations later in the late afternoon and early evening hours
before tapering off around sunset. The upper low exits northeast to
the Dakotas and central Canada Tuesday flattening the upper high
from eastern NM to central and southern Appalachians and
strengthening to 597 dam over the mid Mississippi, Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys. The monsoon plume and thus better shower
and storm coverage will remain across western and central NM due to
this part of the state remaining on the western flank of the upper
high circulation.

The 597 dam 500 mb upper high looks to pivot back west to over New
Mexico as early as Wednesday. This will help disrupt the monsoon
plume Wednesday and Thursday with recycled moisture helping to keep
diurnal shower and storm chances across the higher terrain. A
backdoor front could enter northeast and far east central NM
Thursday due to a slightly deeper shortwave over the central U.S.
according to the GFS and AI-GFS resulting in a moisture boost and
better coverage of showers and storms across this part of the state.
However, the ECMWF and cluster guidance has the shortwave over the
central U.S. more shallow and keeps the 594 to 595 dam upper high
more overhead with no hint of a backdoor front. The upper high over
the desert SW looks to weaken a little more to 592 to 593 dam at 500
mb on Friday. However, guidance differs on the amount of available
moisture with the GFS having PWATS around 0.5 to 0.9 from north to
south while the ECMWF has PWATS around 1 to 1.2 inches areawide.
Cluster analysis is split. Right now it looks like scattered showers
and storms will favor the western and central mountains and nearby
lower elevations during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs
next week will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower
elevations of western and central NM and mid to upper 90s across
eastern NM which is slightly above average for early to mid
September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern and
central mountains midday will move east-northeast into the nearby
highlands and lower elevations this afternoon and early this
evening. Isolated popcorn storms across the northeast plains and
Caprock. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph. Storms
taper off around sunset with lingering mid level clouds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of
western and central NM and nearby lower elevations through late next
week. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. Storm coverage
across these areas gradually lowers mid to late next week as the
upper high over the south central U.S. looks to shift west to over
the state. However, forecast uncertainty greatly increases come this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  91  63  87 /   0   0  20   5
Dulce...........................  45  88  49  87 /   0   0  30  20
Cuba............................  55  87  57  85 /   0   0  30  40
Gallup..........................  55  87  56  86 /   0   0  30  20
El Morro........................  54  84  55  83 /   0  20  40  50
Grants..........................  56  86  58  85 /   0  10  40  70
Quemado.........................  57  83  57  82 /   5  40  40  70
Magdalena.......................  61  84  61  83 /  10  30  40  60
Datil...........................  57  82  57  80 /  10  40  40  70
Reserve.........................  57  86  57  88 /  10  40  30  70
Glenwood........................  62  92  62  94 /  10  20  30  60
Chama...........................  50  82  51  81 /   0   0  30  20
Los Alamos......................  61  85  62  82 /   5  10  30  60
Pecos...........................  57  84  56  84 /  10  30  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  55  84  56  81 /   5   0  20  20
Red River.......................  47  75  48  73 /  10   5  10  20
Angel Fire......................  41  80  42  78 /   5  20  10  30
Taos............................  54  88  54  85 /   5   5  20  20
Mora............................  54  82  54  83 /  10  40  30  60
Espanola........................  59  90  62  89 /   5   5  20  50
Santa Fe........................  62  87  62  84 /   5  10  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  60  90  60  87 /   5  10  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  91  69  91 /   0  20  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  92  66  92 /   0  20  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  94  66  93 /   0  10  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  92  68  93 /   0  10  30  10
Belen...........................  64  94  64  92 /   5  10  40  10
Bernalillo......................  66  93  67  93 /   0  10  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  63  93  64  92 /   0  10  40  10
Corrales........................  66  93  68  94 /   0  10  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  64  94  65  92 /   0  10  40  10
Placitas........................  66  91  66  89 /   0  20  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  67  92  67  92 /   0  10  30  10
Socorro.........................  69  93  69  94 /  10   5  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  85  61  85 /   0  30  40  20
Tijeras.........................  62  88  62  88 /   0  30  40  20
Edgewood........................  59  87  58  88 /   5  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  89  57  88 /   5  40  30  40
Clines Corners..................  59  86  59  85 /  20  40  20  30
Mountainair.....................  59  86  58  86 /   5  40  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  86  59  86 /  10  40  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  87  62  88 /  10  50  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  79  56  81 /  10  50  10  40
Capulin.........................  57  85  59  87 /  30  20  20  10
Raton...........................  56  89  57  90 /  10  20  10  20
Springer........................  57  91  58  92 /  10  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  85  57  86 /  20  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  66  92  66  93 /  30  20  20   0
Roy.............................  61  89  61  90 /  30  20  40   5
Conchas.........................  67  97  67  98 /  30  20  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  65  94 /  40  20  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  70  97  69  99 /  20  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  68  96  67  96 /  20  20  10   0
Portales........................  68  96  67  96 /  20  20   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  96  68  96 /  20  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  70  98  69  97 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  62  90  61  91 /  10  10   5   5
Elk.............................  59  86  57  88 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71