431
FXUS65 KABQ 301149 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Showers and patchy fog will persist across eastern NM through
  this morning. Rain may cause slightly elevated flows in arroyos
  and rivers.

- Widespread light rain will spread across western and central NM
  tonight through Saturday morning.

- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western
  New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for
  localized flooding from persistent rainfall. Though rivers
  rises are expected, there remains a low chance for additional
  river flooding.

- Severe thunderstorms will bring a threat for hail, damaging
  winds and tornadoes across central and eastern NM Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Moisture advection, some associated with the remnants from TS
Vance, continues across southeast NM this morning. Light to
moderate rain is expected to continue across eastern NM through
mid day as a weak shortwave continues to pass overhead. As that
precipitation begins to wane, isolated showers and thunderstorms
should develop over the high terrain. Though localized moderate to
heavy precipitation can`t be ruled out, these storms should
largely be uneventful with mainly light rainfall as the next round
of upper level forcing will not come until tonight.

Round 2 of precipitation should start this evening across western
NM as another short wave shifts over the area. Precipitation will
shift eastward overnight, reaching the Central Mtn Chain by
sunrise Saturday. Most precipitation should wane by midday before
reaching eastern NM thanks to downslope flow. Rainfall amounts
should generally be less than 0.50 inches, though can`t rule out a
few areas getting closer to 1 inch. Overall, impacts are not
expected from this rainfall. After the rainfall ends, a relatively
quiet Saturday afternoon with near normal high temperatures is on
tap.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a quiet Saturday night, the next period of impactful
weather will arrive Sunday into Monday. An upper low over the
Pacific will attempt to phase with a northern stream low diving
into the Great Basin on Sunday. Subtropical moisture will advect
into NM ahead of the Pacific low and the approaching systems will
provide plenty of ascent for widespread rainfall. PWATs will climb
to near 1 inch, which is 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal
for early Nov. At this time, it continue to look too stable for
thunderstorms given moist adiabatic moisture profiles, so this
should initially be a persistent soaking rainfall. Unfortunately,
given the very saturated soils across much of western NM,
increased runoff is likely. Between one half inch and two inches
of rainfall are most likely across western NM, but localized
areas could see upwards of 3 inches from persistent rainfall,
especially in favored upslope flow locations like the Tusas
Mountains. Even persistent light to moderate rainfall could cause
flooding problems given the saturated soils. At this time, we are
expecting rivers to rise, including across San Juan County, but
river levels are expected to stay below flood stage. If any
upstream areas receives these higher end rainfall amounts, that
could push rivers close to or just above minor flood stage. A
Flood Watch has been issued for areas near and west of the ContDvd
starting 5am Sunday and continuing through 11am Monday.

It should be noted that locations across central and eastern NM
will receive rainfall as well, however, the main concern shifts
to severe weather as opposed to flooding. The NAM and RRFS are
suggesting MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
values of 40-50kt. Severe storms will be capable of all hazards
as they quickly shift eastward along the initial Pacific front.

The subtropical moisture should shift out of the area late Sunday
night or early Monday morning, but moisture that was associated
with the northern stream low will shift into northwest NM. The low
itself shifts over north central NM Monday morning, and an
associated stronger cold front will push through northwest NM. As
the upper low continues to slide east-southeastward Monday, the
front will continue to slide southeastward through the remainder
of the area, with a backdoor front entering northeast NM Monday
afternoon. With this cold air advection, snow levels will fall
from 11-12kft to 8-9kft. More precipitation is expected along each
frontal boundary, but snow will be the most likely precip type
above 9kft in the northern mountains. Before precipitation wanes
late Monday, 1-4 inches of the white stuff is expected.

In addition to the rain, potential flooding, severe wx and snow,
winds will also become a concern Sunday and moreso Monday. On
Sunday, southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will
be favored ahead of the initial Pacific cold front as a lee side
surface low deepens. On Monday, along and behind the secondary,
stronger front, west to northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to
35 mph will be common, but winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50
mph will be possible from near KLVS and KCQC southward to the
South Central Mtns.

Ridging moves over the Desert Southwest Tue/Wed with quiet
conditions expected. The upper level ridge slides east on Thursday
as an upper low tracks northeastward across the Great Basin, but
quiet conditions should persist across NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs will become more common across eastern NM this
morning as a batch of rain shifts northward across the area.
While rain continues across eastern NM through the day, a few
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the high terrain
during the afternoon hours. By tonight, much of the precipitation
across central and eastern NM will have diminished, but the next
upper level wave will bring widespread rainfall western NM. This
rain will continue to slide from west to east during the overnight
hours. Low VFR or MVFR cigs/vsbys are likely as well as mountain
obscurations with the rainfall. Low clouds will also linger or
return across eastern NM tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7
days. Several rounds of precipitation are expected through
Monday, with wetting rainfall likely, and light snow accumulations
across the northern mountains. Southwest winds will increase on
Sunday ahead of an initial cold front with gusts up to 35 mph
likely. Then a stronger cold front will slide from northwest to
southeast on Monday, bringing west to northwest wind gusts up to
35 mph across much of the area, except gusts up to 50 mph from
KLVS to KCQC southward across the highlands. Quieter conditions
are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  47  62  46 /   5  90  10  60
Dulce...........................  65  40  57  36 /   5  90  50  40
Cuba............................  63  43  58  41 /   5  90  20  40
Gallup..........................  66  40  61  41 /  30  90   5  70
El Morro........................  63  39  60  41 /  30  80   5  70
Grants..........................  64  43  62  43 /  20  90  10  60
Quemado.........................  65  41  62  43 /  10  90  10  50
Magdalena.......................  63  46  62  48 /  20  80  10   5
Datil...........................  61  42  60  43 /  20  90  10  20
Reserve.........................  68  44  64  46 /  20 100  20  60
Glenwood........................  72  47  68  50 /  30 100  20  60
Chama...........................  60  38  52  35 /  10  90  60  30
Los Alamos......................  60  45  58  43 /  10  80  50  20
Pecos...........................  61  41  59  39 /  30  70  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  60  41  55  39 /  10  60  60   5
Red River.......................  53  34  48  31 /  30  40  50   5
Angel Fire......................  58  27  53  24 /  30  40  40   5
Taos............................  63  39  58  34 /  10  60  60   5
Mora............................  59  38  58  36 /  30  40  30   0
Espanola........................  68  46  64  43 /  10  70  50  10
Santa Fe........................  62  45  59  44 /  20  80  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  65  45  61  42 /  10  80  50  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  51  64  51 /  10  90  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  49  66  49 /   5  90  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  50  67  49 /   0  90  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  51  65  50 /   0  90  10  10
Belen...........................  71  50  69  49 /   5  80  10  10
Bernalillo......................  71  50  67  48 /   5  80  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  71  48  68  48 /   5  80  10  10
Corrales........................  71  50  66  49 /   5  90  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  71  50  68  49 /   5  80  10  10
Placitas........................  67  49  64  49 /  10  90  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  70  50  65  49 /   5  80  10  10
Socorro.........................  72  52  70  52 /   5  80  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  44  59  44 /  10  90  20  20
Tijeras.........................  64  46  62  46 /  10  80  20  20
Edgewood........................  64  43  62  42 /  10  80  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  42  64  40 /  10  70  10  10
Clines Corners..................  59  44  60  43 /  20  60  20  10
Mountainair.....................  64  44  62  44 /  10  80  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  62  45  62  45 /  10  80  30   5
Carrizozo.......................  65  50  64  50 /  20  70  30   0
Ruidoso.........................  59  46  59  45 /  40  70  30   0
Capulin.........................  57  40  61  39 /  10   5   5   0
Raton...........................  61  41  64  37 /  10  10   5   0
Springer........................  61  41  66  37 /  20  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  58  41  61  39 /  30  50  20   0
Clayton.........................  58  47  65  46 /  30  30   5   0
Roy.............................  57  45  64  42 /  30  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  63  50  71  49 /  30  20  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  50  69  50 /  30  40  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  49  71  50 /  70  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  61  51  68  53 /  90  20  20   0
Portales........................  61  51  69  53 /  90  20  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  51  69  52 /  50  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  66  53  70  54 /  50  30  20   0
Picacho.........................  64  50  68  50 /  40  40  40   0
Elk.............................  64  47  66  47 /  50  60  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for
NMZ201>211.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34