008
FXUS65 KABQ 210808
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
108 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Very low chance of fog and freezing fog across western and
  northern valley locations Friday morning.

- Another storm system will bring a round of widespread lower
  elevation rain and mountain snow Saturday night through early
  Monday morning. A few inches of accumulating snow will again be
  favored above 8,500 feet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

The remnants of yesterdays upper low are quickly lifting into
the central plains with rain and snow showers dwindling over
northern NM. Some low stratus clouds are persisting over the
northern and western mountains of NM, and there will be potential
for patchy fog/freezing fog through the post dawn hours. Upstream,
our next weather maker for later this weekend is already churning
over CA with a couple of vort lobes pinwheeling around the state,
one over San Francisco Bay and the other near the Channel Islands
west of the L.A. metro. The former will become the dominant piece
of energy, quickly diving southward over open Pacific waters just
west of the upper Baja peninsula by late today. While moisture
associated with this low will spread some mid level clouds into
western NM today, the primary cloud cover and more impact will
come from the aforementioned low stratus which may not fully burn
off and erode until the early afternoon, especially in
northwestern NM. This will keep temperatures at or even a couple
degrees cooler than was observed there yesterday with most other
areas struggling to make gains of a couple to just a few degrees
(2-5). Otherwise dry conditions will prevail today with very light
breezes.

Into Saturday, the upper low will work over the Baja Peninsula,
becoming more concentric, vertically-stacked, and defined by the
primary vort lobe originating from west central CA. After todays
swath of mid level clouds lift northward, another spoke of
altocumulus/altostratus will lift northeastward over NM on
Saturday. Surface winds will start to veer southerly with some
moderately breezy speeds modeled in west central zones, but
otherwise they will stay light. The southerly wind component and
rising pressure heights will allow temperatures to climb with all
areas running near to slightly above average Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Through the night Saturday and into Sunday morning, the upper low
will lift northeastward into AZ. While the low will not have a
subtropical tap of moisture, there will be enough dynamical lift
and available Pacific moisture from the mid latitudes to generate
widespread precipitation over Old Mexico and southwestern states,
including NM Saturday night through Sunday before tapering off
that evening. The temperatures within the core of the low are
still expected to be comparable to yesterdays low with 700 mb
readings projected to hover between -2 to -3 C. This will keep
snow levels fairly high with appreciable accumulations tending to
stay above 8,000 to 8,500 ft. The northern mountains remain poised
to endure the longest duration of large scale ascent, both from
diffluence preceding the low and wrap-around lifting processes
near and on the backside of the low. With a consensus blended QPF
of around 0.3 to 0.6 over the northern mountains and low snow-to-
liquid ratios (likely ranging from 4:1 to 7:1), just a few inches
of snow accumulation are forecast (2 to 8). Outside of the
northern mountains, QPF from 0.2 to 0.5 inch will be common again,
not too shabby before La Nina meteorological winter begins.
Temperatures will run 3 to 8 degrees below normal in most locales
of northern and central NM Sunday. The low will lift toward the
CO-KS border Sunday night with precipitation waning in NM.

A mostly dry start still looks to be in store for the work week
next week with west northwest flow aloft prevailing. Despite this
component, pressure heights will rise from Sunday to Monday with
temperatures rebounding closer to normal. There are some mild
uncertainties with the depth and track of a northern Rockies low
that could have implications on the upper level gradient over NM
for Monday, but for now breezy to locally windy (over the central
highlands near Clines Corners) conditions have been built into the
forecast. This northern Rockies low will have implications into
Tuesday with the strength and timing of a backdoor cold front that
would start dropping temperatures and continue that trend into
Wednesday. Support from a progressive shortwave trough (over the
central Rockies in tandem with the low farther north) could
introduce slight chances for precipitation over the far northeast
highlands and Raton Pass areas Tuesday into early Wednesday with
otherwise dry conditions prevailing. It should be noted that the
deterministic GFS is considerably deeper and closed off with this
low than the ECMWF, but the ENS ensemble mean is a bit deeper than
its operational member. A solution closer to the GFS/GEFS would
favor a more substantial cold front intrusion with much stronger
cold air advection Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mountain obscurations overnight with around MVFR ceilings at KFMN
KGUP and IFR conditions at times for KSAF. Can`t rule out some
IFR conditions at KAEG early Friday morning, but confidence
remains low (~10 to 20%). Very low chance (<10%) for patchy
freezing fog in northern and western valleys. Low clouds across
north central and western NM burn off late Friday morning with a
scattered to broken layer of mid level clouds moving east into
western and central NM during the day and continuing after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

No critical fire weather concerns exist for the next several days.
Yesterdays Pacific low brought widespread soaking rain and a
couple to a few inches of high mountain snow, and yet another
storm system will provide a similar reprieve again Saturday night
into Sunday. For those undertaking prescribed burning, humidity
values will remain elevated today, especially in northern mountain
zones with stubborn low stratus clouds. Excellent humidity
recoveries will follow tonight and each subsequent night, and on
Saturday night the ongoing precipitation will make things quite
soggy through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions will be the rule for
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week, but good to excellent
humidity recovery will still occur each night. True to form for
this time of year, the smoke ventilation and dispersion rates will
often remain low with only isolated areas briefly mixing out
during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  33  59  38 /   0   0   0  50
Dulce...........................  47  20  58  27 /   0   0   0  50
Cuba............................  47  27  56  32 /   0   0   0  70
Gallup..........................  49  24  57  29 /   0   0   5  80
El Morro........................  48  30  55  32 /   0   0   5  80
Grants..........................  50  25  56  31 /   0   0   5  80
Quemado.........................  51  28  58  32 /   0   0   5  80
Magdalena.......................  50  32  55  37 /   0   0   5  80
Datil...........................  49  28  54  33 /   0   0   5  80
Reserve.........................  53  23  62  30 /   0   0  10  90
Glenwood........................  56  27  66  33 /   0   0  10  80
Chama...........................  42  20  52  27 /   5   0   0  60
Los Alamos......................  47  33  52  36 /   0   0   0  70
Pecos...........................  51  28  56  33 /   0   0   0  70
Cerro/Questa....................  46  26  52  31 /   0   0   0  50
Red River.......................  40  20  45  24 /   0   0   0  50
Angel Fire......................  45  12  52  19 /   0   0   0  60
Taos............................  49  20  55  28 /   0   0   0  60
Mora............................  52  25  57  29 /   0   0   0  60
Espanola........................  53  26  60  32 /   0   0   0  70
Santa Fe........................  49  33  57  37 /   0   0   0  70
Santa Fe Airport................  51  28  58  36 /   0   0   0  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  38  61  42 /   0   0   0  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  33  63  41 /   0   0   0  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  32  64  41 /   0   0   0  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  35  62  42 /   0   0   0  70
Belen...........................  55  28  62  37 /   0   0   0  70
Bernalillo......................  55  33  63  40 /   0   0   0  70
Bosque Farms....................  55  28  63  37 /   0   0   0  70
Corrales........................  55  33  64  41 /   0   0   0  70
Los Lunas.......................  55  30  62  39 /   0   0   0  70
Placitas........................  51  36  60  40 /   0   0   0  70
Rio Rancho......................  54  34  63  41 /   0   0   0  70
Socorro.........................  56  33  63  40 /   0   0   0  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  31  57  36 /   0   0   0  70
Tijeras.........................  49  33  57  37 /   0   0   0  70
Edgewood........................  51  28  58  34 /   0   0   0  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  21  60  32 /   0   0   0  60
Clines Corners..................  49  28  55  32 /   0   0   0  60
Mountainair.....................  51  28  59  34 /   0   0   0  70
Gran Quivira....................  51  28  60  36 /   0   0   0  70
Carrizozo.......................  54  33  63  39 /   0   0   0  60
Ruidoso.........................  53  33  56  37 /   0   0   0  60
Capulin.........................  49  26  57  29 /   0   0   0  30
Raton...........................  54  26  58  29 /   0   0   0  40
Springer........................  56  25  60  29 /   0   0   0  40
Las Vegas.......................  53  27  57  32 /   0   0   0  60
Clayton.........................  56  33  61  37 /   0   0   0  30
Roy.............................  56  29  57  34 /   0   0   0  40
Conchas.........................  61  32  62  37 /   0   0   0  50
Santa Rosa......................  59  30  58  37 /   0   0   0  50
Tucumcari.......................  61  31  63  37 /   0   0   0  50
Clovis..........................  63  35  65  41 /   0   0   0  50
Portales........................  64  33  65  42 /   0   0   0  50
Fort Sumner.....................  62  31  61  39 /   0   0   0  50
Roswell.........................  65  35  64  45 /   0   0   0  50
Picacho.........................  63  33  61  39 /   0   0   0  50
Elk.............................  62  30  61  34 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71