Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
972 FXUS65 KABQ 302359 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 559 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Widespread storms will increase the threat of flash flooding in eastern New Mexico tonight. Heavy rainfall may persist into the early morning hours tomorrow in the southeast plains. - A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this evening in the eastern plains. - An active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week with a continued flash flood threat, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 An elongated ridge remains in place across southern New Mexico/northern Mexico. Drier air has worked its way in from the west, as evidenced by the 18Z sounding at KABQ which had a PWAT of 0.78", 0.35" less than yesterday at the same time. Moisture remains above to well-above normal across southeastern NM and a backdoor frontal passage later this afternoon and evening will replenish low- level moisture and act as a lifting mechanism for storms. The severe potential for today will focus along and north of I-40, but shear does increase further south in the evening as the front pushes southward. Storms that propagate along the boundary could train over the same areas, likely resulting in widespread rainfall totals of 1- 3" across the southeastern quadrant of the state. Many of these same areas received 2-4" last night so soils will be saturated and as a result will struggle to absorb excessive rainfall. Storms will continue well into the overnight hours in the southeast plains and there is a low chance storms push as far west as the Sacramento mountains during the early morning hours (2AM to 6AM). As a result, the Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area was extended until 6AM, but forecast confidence is low since rainfall intensity tends to wane during these early morning hours. Regardless, it will be something to watch closely tonight for folks in the Ruidoso area. The backdoor front passage overnight will set the stage for more widespread storms on Sunday afternoon. Storm will move from north to south since the center of the H5 ridge will push westward into eastern AZ. Early afternoon storms will favor the mountains where steering flow will be weak, then late afternoon/evening boundary collisions will be the best shot for most lower elevation locations to get rain. Eastern NM will be somewhat of a wildcard tomorrow since late night convection and early morning stratus is expected to both delay convective initiation and decrease overall coverage out there (despite the increase in moisture). Given the dependence on tonight`s convection, a Flash Flood Watch was not yet issued, but is likely for at least the Ruidoso area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Ridging will continue to amplify over The Great Basin early next week. Heights will be quite impressive (1-2.5 std dev above normal across most of the western CONUS) meanwhile troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS. This will result in northerly steering flow over New Mexico and make the area vulnerable to backdoor frontal intrusions from shortwave troughs embedded within the larger longwave trough to the east. The northerly steering flow tends to be favorable for storms in both the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metros as well as Ruidoso so it should continue to be active for the foreseeable future despite somewhat average PWATs. Towards the latter portion of the week, some deterministic models are picking up on a tropical moisture surge into the desert southwest. This would be associated with the area of convection south of Mexico that has a high chance of development into a tropical storm per the NHC. Should this scenario manifest, it would be most likely to affect the western third of the state. Both the GEFS and EPS are hinting at a moisture increase Friday into the weekend, but the extent of the increase remains uncertain at this time given the wide model spread. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms across northeast NM this evening will coalesce into a complex of storms diving south and east across east central and southeast NM overnight along a backdoor cold front. MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecasted to develop across eastern NM in the wake of this activity. The backdoor front will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing a gusty east canyon wind to KABQ. Right now, guidance keeps wind gusts just under airport weather warning criteria, but these east canyon winds will be dependent on the overall shower and thunderstorm coverage across eastern NM. Low clouds and MVFR to IFR ceilings will linger longest across southeast NM Sunday morning helping to delay shower and thunderstorm development across the south central mountains Sunday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the northern and southwest mountains Sunday afternoon, with storms impacting the nearby highlands and associated TAF sites like KSAF and moreso KLVS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Storms today will favor eastern NM where several inches may fall in the southeast plains. A backdoor frontal surge overnight will push moisture westward, allowing for an increase in coverage to storms in central and western NM on Sunday. Daily rounds of scattered showers and storms will favor the high terrain of central and northern New Mexico early to mid-next week, with storms generally moving from north to south. Excellent humidity recoveries are likely east of the central mountain chain each of the next several days, with fair to good recoveries in the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 82 45 84 / 5 20 10 20 Cuba............................ 51 80 51 81 / 0 30 10 30 Gallup.......................... 49 85 51 85 / 0 10 5 10 El Morro........................ 53 80 53 80 / 0 30 20 30 Grants.......................... 53 82 53 83 / 0 40 20 30 Quemado......................... 54 82 54 82 / 0 40 20 40 Magdalena....................... 57 79 58 80 / 20 60 40 40 Datil........................... 53 78 53 78 / 20 60 40 40 Reserve......................... 54 89 53 87 / 10 60 30 50 Glenwood........................ 59 91 58 89 / 10 60 40 60 Chama........................... 45 77 44 77 / 10 40 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 56 75 55 77 / 10 50 20 60 Pecos........................... 52 74 50 76 / 40 60 30 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 75 49 78 / 30 50 30 60 Red River....................... 41 65 41 68 / 40 60 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 37 69 36 71 / 40 70 20 60 Taos............................ 48 78 48 80 / 30 50 20 50 Mora............................ 47 70 45 73 / 50 70 30 70 Espanola........................ 55 83 55 85 / 20 40 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 56 77 55 78 / 20 50 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 81 54 82 / 20 40 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 85 63 85 / 10 40 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 87 61 87 / 10 30 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 89 61 89 / 10 30 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 87 61 87 / 10 30 20 20 Belen........................... 60 89 59 89 / 10 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 62 87 60 88 / 10 30 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 60 88 58 88 / 10 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 62 88 60 89 / 10 30 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 61 88 60 88 / 10 30 30 10 Placitas........................ 60 82 58 84 / 10 40 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 62 87 60 87 / 10 30 20 20 Socorro......................... 65 90 63 89 / 20 50 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 78 53 80 / 10 40 30 40 Tijeras......................... 57 79 55 81 / 20 40 30 40 Edgewood........................ 54 79 51 81 / 20 40 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 80 50 82 / 20 40 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 54 73 52 75 / 30 50 30 40 Mountainair..................... 55 79 52 80 / 30 40 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 56 79 53 79 / 40 40 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 61 81 58 81 / 50 60 50 40 Ruidoso......................... 55 71 53 72 / 60 70 50 50 Capulin......................... 49 71 48 74 / 50 40 10 20 Raton........................... 50 75 48 78 / 60 50 10 30 Springer........................ 52 76 50 80 / 60 50 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 52 72 50 75 / 50 60 30 60 Clayton......................... 57 78 55 82 / 30 10 5 5 Roy............................. 54 76 53 78 / 60 40 20 30 Conchas......................... 61 81 58 84 / 70 30 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 59 78 57 81 / 70 40 40 30 Tucumcari....................... 58 79 56 82 / 70 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 63 82 60 86 / 70 20 20 10 Portales........................ 62 82 60 86 / 70 30 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 62 82 60 84 / 70 30 30 20 Roswell......................... 65 84 64 86 / 70 40 40 10 Picacho......................... 60 78 58 81 / 60 60 40 30 Elk............................. 57 75 54 78 / 60 60 40 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226-235>240. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...71