Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
775 FXUS65 KABQ 271932 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 132 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - High flow persists in creeks and rivers in and around the Sangre de Cristo mountains, making the area vulnerable to additional heavy rainfall late week into the weekend. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow, with a low risk of flash flooding outside of very sensitive areas. - Flash flood threat increases Friday through the weekend in central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trend higher. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Low clouds have generally cleared out, but a few locations in and around the northern mountains have been hanging onto low ceilings into the early afternoon. As a result of the clearing, showers have begun to develop in western and northern NM. Despite ample moisture at the sfc (dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s), mid-level water vapor shows a significant dry air intrusion from the west, which will help to limit updraft intensity today. Wetting footprints will generally be small and westerly storm motion will prevent storms from parking themselves over the terrain. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard today, even though very strong gusts (50mph+) seem unlikely given the relative lack of DCAPE. Showers and storms will not persist well into the overnight hours like the did the past couple of nights since convection will be diurnally driven and dry air will continue making its way around the H5 High to the southeast. A backdoor front aided by significant convection in Kansas will surge south and westward into New Mexico Thursday afternoon and evening. Subsidence aloft from the building ridge and right-exit region of the jet streak will counteract the sfc convergence provided by the frontal boundary so hi-res models are quite bearish on the precipitation potential Thursday afternoon. Any convection that does develop will help to push the front south and westward and more widespread convection than what models are currently showing has the potential to create gusty gap winds through the central mountain chain Friday morning. Elsewhere across the state, there will mainly just be isolated showers and storms over the high terrain, with little to no impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 The surge in low-level moisture behind the backdoor front will set the stage for a more active Friday. Storms will focus along and east of the central mountain chain where robust instability (sfc based CAPE >1000 J/kg) is very likely (>80% chance). The western extent of convection will be determined by how far the frontal boundary surges Friday morning, but heavier rain is likely across northern and eastern areas where PWATs will be 130-150% of normal per GEFS guidance. Moisture will remain entrenched over most New Mexico over the weekend, keeping the active pattern going. The center of the H5 ridge will re-develop over the Four Corners this weekend, pushing some drier air into the northern half of the state, with the flash flood risk focusing over the eastern and southern portions of the CWA. NBM 50th percentile 72hr rainfall totals (Friday through Sunday) area showing 0.75"+ for all areas along and east of the central mountain chain, with 1.5-2" in the east-central plains. The 90th percentile is showing 1.5"+ across all of eastern NM (including the Ruidoso area), with pockets of nearly 4" over the Caprock. This suggests a low potential for 3-day totals upwards of 6" in east- central NM where localized convection will outperform even "high-end guidance". The good news is that the heaviest precipitation looks to fall well away from the saturated Sangre de Cristo mountains, which should give that area some time for creeks and rivers to return closer to baseline. Scattered to widespread storms are likely early next week, with slightly lower rain chances mid-week as ridging amplifies over The Great Basin and sends some drier air into New Mexico from the north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 MVFR cigs linger in a few areas, but low clouds should clear out by 19Z at the latest. Showers have already begun to develop over the western high terrain and will continue to expand in coverage eastward through the afternoon. Storm intensity will be lower than previous days, but gusty and erratic winds will still be a concern at all terminals. Precipitation will be very short-lived, but PROB30 groups were included at most terminals due to the threat of gusty outflow winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next seven days. Isolated to scattered storms today will favor the high terrain, with relatively localized wetting rainfall. A backdoor front pushing through Thursday night will replenish moisture across central and eastern NM, setting the stage for a more active period with widespread to numerous storms Friday through the weekend. The heaviest precipitation will focus over areas along and east of the central mountain chain where rainfall totals of 1-3"+ are likely Friday through Sunday. Wetting rain will be much harder to come by west of the Continental Divide where most areas will see less than 0.25" between now and Sunday. The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 85 63 85 / 5 5 5 20 Dulce........................... 43 82 48 82 / 10 5 5 40 Cuba............................ 51 81 55 82 / 10 10 5 50 Gallup.......................... 52 82 54 83 / 5 10 5 20 El Morro........................ 53 80 55 81 / 5 20 20 60 Grants.......................... 53 84 55 85 / 5 20 10 60 Quemado......................... 53 81 55 83 / 10 20 20 70 Magdalena....................... 59 83 62 84 / 20 20 20 80 Datil........................... 53 80 55 81 / 10 30 20 80 Reserve......................... 53 89 54 90 / 10 30 10 60 Glenwood........................ 58 93 60 93 / 10 20 10 50 Chama........................... 44 76 48 76 / 10 10 5 60 Los Alamos...................... 57 79 59 80 / 10 10 5 60 Pecos........................... 53 80 55 80 / 10 10 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 78 53 78 / 10 20 20 70 Red River....................... 42 68 45 69 / 10 30 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 37 73 40 74 / 5 30 20 70 Taos............................ 48 81 52 81 / 5 10 10 50 Mora............................ 47 76 49 77 / 10 30 20 70 Espanola........................ 55 86 58 87 / 10 10 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 57 81 59 81 / 10 10 10 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 84 58 85 / 10 10 5 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 87 67 88 / 10 5 10 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 89 66 90 / 10 5 5 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 91 66 93 / 10 5 5 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 89 66 90 / 10 5 5 40 Belen........................... 60 91 63 93 / 10 10 5 50 Bernalillo...................... 62 90 64 91 / 10 5 5 40 Bosque Farms.................... 60 90 62 92 / 10 5 5 50 Corrales........................ 62 91 65 92 / 10 5 5 40 Los Lunas....................... 61 90 63 92 / 10 5 5 50 Placitas........................ 61 85 63 87 / 10 5 5 50 Rio Rancho...................... 62 89 65 90 / 10 5 5 40 Socorro......................... 65 92 66 94 / 20 10 10 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 82 58 83 / 10 5 5 60 Tijeras......................... 58 83 59 84 / 10 5 5 60 Edgewood........................ 54 84 55 85 / 10 5 5 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 86 54 87 / 10 5 5 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 80 56 80 / 10 10 5 50 Mountainair..................... 55 84 57 85 / 10 10 5 70 Gran Quivira.................... 57 84 57 85 / 10 10 10 70 Carrizozo....................... 63 87 63 88 / 10 20 10 70 Ruidoso......................... 58 78 58 79 / 10 30 10 80 Capulin......................... 52 74 53 77 / 30 50 50 80 Raton........................... 51 79 53 80 / 20 50 30 70 Springer........................ 52 82 55 82 / 10 30 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 51 79 53 79 / 10 20 20 70 Clayton......................... 60 80 60 80 / 30 20 30 50 Roy............................. 55 80 56 79 / 10 40 30 60 Conchas......................... 60 87 62 87 / 10 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 59 86 61 85 / 20 10 10 50 Tucumcari....................... 60 85 59 83 / 10 5 20 20 Clovis.......................... 65 92 63 89 / 10 5 10 30 Portales........................ 65 93 64 90 / 10 5 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 63 91 64 89 / 10 5 10 40 Roswell......................... 67 96 68 94 / 10 10 5 30 Picacho......................... 60 89 62 87 / 10 20 5 60 Elk............................. 58 86 59 85 / 10 30 5 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16