Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
902 FXUS65 KABQ 311126 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico today, retreating to northwest and far west central New Mexico this weekend before expanding back east early next week. - Higher coverage of thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern New Mexico today and Saturday. Storms on today and Saturday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 The 00Z upper air analysis showed the Monsoon high over central NM at a 500mb height of 598dam. The Monsoon high is forecast to move west to over AZ and continue to strengthen to 600dam at 500mb. More heat is forecast today and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest Plateau, middle and lower RGV and the Chaves County Plains. A backdoor front is still forecast to progress to the central mountain chain today, replenishing low level moisture and sparking a more robust round of convection relative to the past couple of days. As the upper high shifts west into AZ, northwest flow aloft will increase across northeast and east central NM and combine with low level easterly flow to boost 0-6km bulk shear to 30-35kts, which is sufficient for a severe storms. The SPC has much of east central and northeast NM included in a marginal risk for severe storms on the day 1 convective outlook. Convective cold pooling across eastern NM will help nudge the front west through the central mountain chain this evening, resulting in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys that will persist overnight. Low level moisture behind the backdoor front will be transported west overnight into Saturday morning to near the AZ border and set the stage for a more active day with even greater severe potential as flow aloft turns northerly and 0-6km bulk shear increases by another 5-10kts relative to Friday. The SPC has a sizable marginal risk area for severe storms on Saturday that encompasses much of eastern and central NM and includes the RGV. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso both today and Saturday, but Saturday`s risk is a touch higher given potential for wet grounds from today`s rainfall and a good chance for multiple rounds on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 The Monsoon high will weaken some Sun/Mon and a downtick in daytime heating initiated storms is forecast as drier air aloft rotates around the high circulation over NM and PWATs decline. Heat risk will trend back up Monday for a number of lower elevation locales and advisories may be required, with potential extension into Tuesday. The Monsoon high will remain weakened and wobble about the region from mid through late week, with renewed rounds of daily storms favoring northern and western NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct storms across western NM and sct/num storms across much of eastern NM this afternoon and evening. A backdoor front will sweep southwest into central NM today, creating a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace this evening. An Airport Weather Warning at KABQ for gusts to 35kts or greater may be required Friday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. Strong high pressure aloft will bring continued hot temperatures to the lower elevations today, then again early next week. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across eastern NM today, leading to an uptick in coverage of wetting storms along/east of the central mountain chain. The backdoor front will surge west to near the AZ border tonight into Saturday night, setting the stage for wetting storms across much of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Humidity recovery will improve and be good to excellent behind the backdoor front. Chances for wetting storms will decrease Sun/Mon, then ramp back up going into the middle of the week as high pressure aloft weakens some. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 68 98 68 / 0 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 95 56 93 54 / 10 20 30 20 Cuba............................ 94 60 90 58 / 10 10 30 20 Gallup.......................... 95 60 95 60 / 5 5 10 10 El Morro........................ 90 60 89 58 / 10 10 30 20 Grants.......................... 94 62 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 91 62 92 61 / 20 10 20 30 Magdalena....................... 92 65 89 63 / 30 40 30 30 Datil........................... 89 61 87 59 / 30 30 50 20 Reserve......................... 96 62 95 61 / 40 20 50 30 Glenwood........................ 100 66 98 64 / 40 20 50 30 Chama........................... 87 54 83 52 / 30 30 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 89 63 86 61 / 30 30 70 20 Pecos........................... 90 58 84 55 / 50 30 90 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 84 54 / 50 60 40 20 Red River....................... 77 46 75 45 / 60 70 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 80 41 78 36 / 70 80 90 20 Taos............................ 89 56 86 54 / 40 50 50 20 Mora............................ 83 53 80 52 / 70 70 90 20 Espanola........................ 97 62 93 59 / 20 30 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 92 64 88 60 / 30 30 70 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 96 62 92 59 / 20 20 60 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 67 94 65 / 20 20 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 70 95 67 / 20 20 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 64 97 61 / 10 20 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 69 96 66 / 10 20 30 20 Belen........................... 103 68 97 66 / 10 20 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 101 67 96 64 / 20 20 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 100 65 96 62 / 10 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 101 68 96 65 / 20 20 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 101 67 96 64 / 10 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 97 66 92 64 / 20 20 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 100 69 95 66 / 20 20 30 20 Socorro......................... 105 72 98 68 / 10 30 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 61 88 59 / 20 20 60 20 Tijeras......................... 94 63 89 60 / 30 20 60 20 Edgewood........................ 92 60 88 57 / 30 20 70 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 58 89 53 / 40 20 60 20 Clines Corners.................. 90 59 84 56 / 50 20 70 40 Mountainair..................... 94 59 89 57 / 40 30 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 93 60 87 58 / 40 30 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 98 66 91 63 / 40 30 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 90 57 82 55 / 60 40 80 60 Capulin......................... 84 54 82 54 / 70 70 60 10 Raton........................... 89 54 87 53 / 80 80 60 10 Springer........................ 91 56 87 54 / 90 80 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 87 56 82 54 / 80 60 70 20 Clayton......................... 92 63 90 61 / 30 50 30 10 Roy............................. 90 59 85 58 / 90 70 60 20 Conchas......................... 99 65 92 63 / 80 60 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 89 62 / 60 50 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 100 66 94 63 / 50 70 20 20 Clovis.......................... 99 67 91 63 / 30 70 30 20 Portales........................ 101 67 92 64 / 30 70 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 100 68 92 64 / 40 60 30 30 Roswell......................... 105 72 96 68 / 10 50 30 40 Picacho......................... 98 66 89 63 / 40 40 50 50 Elk............................. 95 62 86 59 / 50 40 80 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-220-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11