778
FXUS65 KABQ 011845
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1245 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Scattered showers and storms will are expected each of the next
  several afternoons and evenings around central and northern New
  Mexico. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding
  may occur with any storm.

- Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding this afternoon and
  evening, trending slightly lower mid-week.

- Storm chances may begin to trend up again late week into the
  weekend, increasing the risk of flash flooding and strong to
  severe storms (Moderate confidence).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Ridging continues to amplify over The Great Basin today, but the max
H5 heights are actually trending down as the overall ridge weakens.
Satellite shows that sub-tropical moisture is already being drawn
northward into Mexico and southern AZ, with relatively near average
moisture levels over most of New Mexico. Overnight/early morning
storms associated with a weak shortwave have since dissipated, but
will remain a source of weak lift as it moves southward along the
central mountain chain this afternoon and evening. The off-scar
flash flood concern with storms along the central mountain chain
today is relatively low given the modest instability and fast enough
storm motion. In western NM, closer to the center of the ridge,
storm motion will be more slow and erratic so localized totals of 1-
2" are possible out there. Most hi-res models are showing storms
dissipating before reaching the Ruidoso area late afternoon, but if
they hold together it could be a close call for flooding over the
burn scars.

The center of the H5 ridge shifts further northwest into Utah
tomorrow afternoon, with north to south steering flow remaining over
New Mexico. A longwave trough over the central plains will create
some easterly low-level flow in eastern NM, but the airmass advected
in will actually be drier than the current one so it`s not expected
to create an uptick in storm chances. That being said, the right
entrance region of a NW/SE oriented jet streak embedded within this
aformentioned longwave trough will provide some lift in northeastern
NM where the greatest coverage of storms will be on Tuesday
afternoon. Slight drying across the west will decrease storm chances
out there Tuesday, but at least isolated storms are likely once
again over the high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to be the driest days of the
week, with isolated to scattered storms over the northern mountains
and only a stray shower or storm elsewhere. This is great news for
the Ruidoso area, but there is still enough moisture to create a few
showers/storms in the area and if storms to develop, they will
likely be right over the burn scars given the flow pattern.

The NAM is trying to re-develop the High circulation over south-
central NM on Thursday. This will be something to watch because it
could help to draw a bit of moisture in from the southwest and bump
up rain chances a tad for the afternoon hours. By Friday, models are
in agreement that PWATs will begin trending higher from the
southwest as sub-tropical moisture is advected northward from the
eastern Pacific. The magnitude of this moisture surge remains a key
question since it will likely be dependent on the evolution of the
cluster of storms currently off the coast of Mexico that is progged
to develop into a tropical system at some point in the next couple
of days. Precipitation amounts during the Friday through Sunday
period have trended higher for all of central and northern New
Mexico during the past 24hrs due to increasing agreement on the path
of this potential tropical system and its interaction with an upper-
level trough off the west coast of the US. The deterministic GFS is
quite bullish on a substantial uptick in precipitation across the
state as a result, but this should be taken with a grain of salt
since the majority of GEFS members are not as confident in that
particular solution coming to fruition. Regardless of the magnitude
of this surge, temperatures will be on the downtrend over the
weekend, indicating that there will likely be extensive cloud cover
that could act to decrease instability and therefore rainfall rates.
A broad area of soaking rainfall with embedded heavier rainfall
seems like the most likely scenario right now, but that could change
as models get a better hold on the potential tropical system.

After Sunday, there is strong agreement in drier weather across the
Land of Enchantment, but the extent in the downtrend of convection
will come down whether the trough off the west coast penetrates
inland. Cluster analysis paints several potential solutions so the
forecast beyond Sunday remains low confidence this far out.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Scattered showers and storms will develop over the high terrain
around 19Z, drifting south off the high terrain through the
afternoon into the evening. Gusty outflow wind gusts to 35KT and
small hail will be the main aviation concerns. A few showers may
linger past 03Z around the central mountain chain, with dry
conditions overnight. Outside of brief vis reductions in stronger
storms, VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
Isolated to scattered storms today through Thursday will generally
favor the high terrain of northern and southwestern New Mexico, with
gusty outflow winds and small hail the main concerns. Wetting
rainfall will generally be confined to the high terrain, but
localized amounts up to 2" cannot be ruled out with stronger storms
that develop. Temperatures will gradually rise over the next few
days, resulting in slighter lower afternoon humidities in most
areas. However, this trend will be reversed late week.

Storm coverage will likely trend up Friday into the weekend as sub-
tropical moisture is advected in from the south. The magnitude of
this monsoonal surge remains uncertain, but models have continued to
trend wetter during this period. Given the lower temperatures and
increased cloud coverage, a widespread soaking rainfall looks more
likely than localized intense rainfall, but trends will be monitored
in the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  88  61  89 /   0   5   0   5
Dulce...........................  44  85  46  86 /  20  30  10  20
Cuba............................  52  82  53  83 /  10  30  10  20
Gallup..........................  53  84  53  84 /   5  20  10  30
El Morro........................  53  80  53  80 /  10  30  20  50
Grants..........................  53  84  53  84 /  10  30  10  50
Quemado.........................  53  81  53  81 /  20  20  10  50
Magdalena.......................  57  81  58  82 /  10  10   5  30
Datil...........................  52  78  52  79 /  10  20   5  50
Reserve.........................  53  86  52  87 /  20  30  10  40
Glenwood........................  57  88  56  90 /  20  30   5  30
Chama...........................  46  78  46  79 /  20  60  20  30
Los Alamos......................  56  78  56  80 /  10  50  20  30
Pecos...........................  51  78  52  82 /  20  40  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  50  79  50  80 /  10  60  30  20
Red River.......................  41  69  42  70 /  10  60  30  30
Angel Fire......................  34  73  36  74 /  20  60  20  20
Taos............................  47  81  48  83 /  10  50  20  20
Mora............................  46  75  47  78 /  20  60  30  30
Espanola........................  54  86  56  88 /  10  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  56  80  57  82 /  10  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  54  84  56  85 /  10  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  87  65  88 /  10  20  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  88  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  91  62  92 /  10  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
Belen...........................  59  90  59  91 /  10   5   5  10
Bernalillo......................  60  90  61  91 /  10  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  58  89  59  91 /  10  10   5  10
Corrales........................  61  91  62  92 /  10  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  89  60  91 /  10   5   5  10
Placitas........................  59  86  61  87 /  10  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  61  89  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  63  91  63  92 /  10   5   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  81  56  83 /  10  20  10  20
Tijeras.........................  56  82  58  84 /  10  20  10  20
Edgewood........................  51  83  53  85 /  10  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  84  51  86 /  10  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  53  78  54  80 /  20  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  52  82  54  84 /  10  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  54  81  55  83 /  10  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  60  85 /  10  10   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  54  75  53  77 /   5  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  47  77  50  79 /   0  20  20  10
Raton...........................  48  80  48  83 /   5  30  20  10
Springer........................  49  82  50  85 /  10  30  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  49  78  51  82 /  20  40  30  20
Clayton.........................  55  83  57  88 /   5   5   5   5
Roy.............................  52  80  53  85 /  20  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  58  86  59  90 /  20  10  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  56  84  57  88 /  20   5  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  56  83  56  89 /  10   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  61  88  61  92 /  10   0   5   0
Portales........................  61  89  60  92 /  10   0   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  60  88  60  91 /  10   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  63  91  61  94 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  58  85  56  89 /   0  10   0  10
Elk.............................  54  82  53  85 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16