Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
589 FXUS65 KABQ 112348 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 548 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Flooding of small creeks, streams. and arroyos, as well as low- lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of precipitation occur tonight through Tuesday night. The greatest flash flood risk will be along and west of the central mountain chain as remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond crosses Monday and Monday night. Elevated flows in main stem rivers will also possible. - The latter half of the coming week will feature dry and gusty weather. - A gusty Pacific cold front will cross Thursday and Thursday night, with freezing temperatures across north central, northwest and west central parts of the forecast area early Friday morning and Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Rich subtropical moisture will continue to stream northeastward over the forecast area tonight through Sunday night. Today`s ABQ PWAT was the third straight day with a record high value for the date. PWATs are forecast to vary around 150-250% of normal over central and southern areas tonight through Sunday night, and there is general model agreement that precip will favor locations along and south of I-40 by Sunday. Considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch for south central and southwest parts of the forecast area for Sunday and Sunday night, but couldn`t muster enough confidence given a lack of model consensus on where the heaviest precip will occur. Will let the evening and night shifts re-evaluate the need for a Flash Flood Watch later in the weekend as fresh model guidance arrives. With all the moisture in place, high temperatures should vary from near to as much as 7 degrees below 30 year averages along and west of the central mountain chain Sunday, and as much as 10 degrees above average farther east with a lee side surface trough in place. Otherwise, patchy fog is likely in western valleys tonight into Sunday morning, and potentially also again Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 An upper level high pressure system over TX and a low pressure system dropping southward to the central CA coast will funnel remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond northeastward across the forecast area on Monday and Monday night. Models agree better for this period that heavier precipitation (roughly in the 0.75-1.75" range) will favor south central and southwest parts of the forecast area, and potentially also along the west slopes of the Tusas Mountains, with amounts generally up to 0.75" elsewhere along and west of the central mountain chain, and mostly under a half inch farther east. Locally heavier amounts could reach 3" in spots along and west of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will fall near to around 11 degrees below 1991-2020 averages on Monday, then climb a good 2-9 degrees across the forecast area on Tuesday. The upper low on the west coast is forecast to exit northeastward across the Great Basin Tuesday and Tuesday evening, while a return flow of low level moisture continues across the forecast area, enabling another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop mostly along and east of the continental divide. The middle and latter half of the week will feature dry weather and gusty winds as west and northwest flow aloft strengthen over the forecast area. High temperatures will continue to trend warmer on Wednesday, then cool with the arrival of a gusty Pacific cold front Thursday and Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Increased subtropical moisture is keeping showers going over portions of northern and central New Mexico. While much of the activity will tend to favor southwestern to south central New Mexico later this evening, another band of showers is modeled to develop in the early morning hours Sunday across west central to central areas of the state, including KGUP, KAEG, KABQ, and KSAF. This will spread lower MVFR ceilings into more of western and central New Mexico before and through the post dawn hours Sunday with periods of reduced visibility in light to moderate rain. Showers will tend to dwindle through the late morning, refocusing farther south into Sunday afternoon, including near KROW, KSRR, and KONM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 A wet weather pattern will continue through Tuesday evening, then dry and gusty weather are expected during the latter half of the week. South southwest wind gusts may reach 45 mph east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday afternoon, then up to 40 mph east of the Sangres on Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 68 49 70 / 60 20 5 70 Dulce........................... 44 66 36 65 / 80 50 10 70 Cuba............................ 48 66 44 63 / 50 50 20 80 Gallup.......................... 49 66 44 68 / 50 50 20 60 El Morro........................ 49 64 46 67 / 50 60 20 70 Grants.......................... 49 68 47 67 / 30 50 20 70 Quemado......................... 49 66 47 69 / 30 50 20 60 Magdalena....................... 53 71 52 66 / 30 50 30 70 Datil........................... 49 67 47 65 / 40 40 30 70 Reserve......................... 51 73 50 70 / 50 50 40 60 Glenwood........................ 54 76 53 72 / 70 50 60 70 Chama........................... 41 60 36 59 / 80 50 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 51 66 48 60 / 50 30 10 60 Pecos........................... 49 66 44 61 / 40 20 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 66 42 65 / 40 20 5 40 Red River....................... 41 57 34 56 / 30 20 5 40 Angel Fire...................... 36 61 27 59 / 30 20 5 30 Taos............................ 47 68 40 67 / 40 20 5 30 Mora............................ 44 68 39 59 / 30 20 10 40 Espanola........................ 52 73 47 70 / 50 30 10 50 Santa Fe........................ 52 66 49 63 / 40 30 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 68 47 65 / 40 30 20 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 71 55 67 / 40 30 20 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 73 55 69 / 40 30 20 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 75 54 71 / 40 30 20 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 73 55 69 / 40 30 20 60 Belen........................... 54 75 52 72 / 40 30 20 60 Bernalillo...................... 56 74 53 70 / 40 30 20 60 Bosque Farms.................... 53 74 51 70 / 40 40 20 60 Corrales........................ 56 75 54 70 / 40 30 20 60 Los Lunas....................... 54 74 53 70 / 40 40 20 60 Placitas........................ 54 69 52 65 / 40 30 20 60 Rio Rancho...................... 56 73 54 69 / 40 30 20 60 Socorro......................... 57 78 57 73 / 40 50 30 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 66 47 61 / 40 30 20 60 Tijeras......................... 52 67 49 62 / 40 30 20 60 Edgewood........................ 49 68 45 62 / 40 20 20 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 71 44 63 / 40 20 20 60 Clines Corners.................. 50 67 44 59 / 40 20 20 50 Mountainair..................... 52 69 47 64 / 50 30 30 70 Gran Quivira.................... 52 69 48 65 / 50 40 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 57 71 55 69 / 50 50 40 60 Ruidoso......................... 54 66 50 62 / 50 50 50 70 Capulin......................... 49 72 39 59 / 20 0 5 10 Raton........................... 47 75 40 64 / 20 0 5 10 Springer........................ 49 76 43 65 / 20 0 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 50 70 43 59 / 20 5 10 40 Clayton......................... 57 81 49 62 / 20 0 5 10 Roy............................. 53 76 47 63 / 40 5 5 20 Conchas......................... 57 81 53 68 / 20 5 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 55 76 51 65 / 30 10 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 59 82 51 68 / 20 5 20 30 Clovis.......................... 61 81 57 73 / 20 20 30 40 Portales........................ 62 82 57 73 / 20 20 30 50 Fort Sumner..................... 58 81 55 70 / 30 10 20 40 Roswell......................... 63 82 60 76 / 30 40 40 40 Picacho......................... 58 78 55 70 / 40 40 40 50 Elk............................. 56 75 52 70 / 50 60 50 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...52