906
FXUS65 KABQ 182352 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the evening.
There is just enough moisture in place near the TX border for a few
strong storms to fire up late this afternoon into the evening. The
strongest activity may produce hail and damaging winds over Quay,
Curry, and Roosevelt counties. A moist backdoor cold front will
then move into eastern NM tonight with low clouds and more showers
and storms over northeast NM. Much greater coverage of showers
and storms is expected over eastern NM Wednesday with more severe
storms possible. The focus will then shift to strong east and
southeast winds across the area Wednesday night as moisture surges
farther west into the Rio Grande Valley. Widespread rainfall with
embedded thunderstorms is possible for central and eastern NM
Thursday and Friday. Burn scar flash flooding is possible. High
pressure will build over the area again by the weekend with warmer
weather and more showers and storms possible each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A very active weather scenario will continue to manifest a plethora
of hazards thru the short-term forecast and beyond. Wildfires around
the Ruidoso area produced major impacts to air quality this morning.
Another `Air Quality Alert` has been issued for the Lincoln County
area tonight into Wednesday morning. Evacuation orders remain in
place for the Ruidoso area while fire growth continues to perk up
this afternoon. The latest orders are available on the Lincoln
County govt website: https://www.lincolncountynm.gov Southwest
winds will remain breezy areawide thru this evening with humidity
values below 10% in many areas.

While hot, dry, and breezy conditions plague a large part of the
area today, there is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms along
the TX/NM border counties late this afternoon thru the evening
hours. Low level moisture is still lingering along the state line
with backed low level winds. The 12Z HREF was rather enthusiastic
about cells developing around the Caprock from Quay County south
to Curry and Roosevelt counties by 4pm. This activity then
strengthens quickly before moving east into west TX by 8pm.
Finally, a moist backdoor cold front then surges southwest into
northeast NM tonight with much deeper moisture. There is
sufficient elevated instability and low level shear behind the
front with abundant moisture and lift. This may be enough to force
another round of storms over northeast NM overnight but confidence
is fairly low. Widespread low stratus is also expected to develop
in the wake of the front by sunrise over much of far eastern and
northeast NM. Patchy fog is possible near the CO border as well.
The frontal boundary will likely become draped along the central
mt chain by sunrise with light gap winds developing in the RGV.
This may even force low stratus development as far west as the
central mt chain.

Significantly deeper moisture in place Wednesday along with deep-
layer veering wind profiles under stronger southwest flow aloft will
set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and storms by the
afternoon. Convective initiation timing will depend on how much low
cloud cover is in place across the plains. Regardless, the bulk of
CAMs show storms firing up by 2pm then moving northeast as discrete
cells and clusters with locally heavy rainfall. SPC has expanded the
Marginal Risk area for eastern NM. Burn scar flash flooding may
occur if storms can develop farther west along the central mt chain
given PWAT values will be close to 1" and storms may develop over
the same areas then move northeast. The most recent fires in the
Ruidoso area will be a big concern for flooding and subsequent
shifts may opt to post a Flash Flood Watch.

By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will be building south
down the Great Plains and allow any storm outflows over eastern NM
to get a boost westward. The airmass will surge westward into the
RGV with a period of strong to potentially damaging east winds in
the ABQ metro area. The density gradient will be impressive with
dewpoints surging from the 30s to near 60F at KABQ. A High Wind
Watch has been posted for Wednesday evening with gusts over 60 mph
possible. Another round of low stratus is likely for eastern NM
with some patchy fog possible as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A potentially widespread rainfall event may unfold Thursday thru
Friday as remnant tropical moisture surges northwest along a wave
approaching from south TX and northeast Mexico. Deep-layer flow
will become southeasterly over the area with rich moisture
advection forcing PWATs over 1.25" for eastern NM. Widespread
cloud cover may limit the extent of instability for storms along
and east of the central mt chain Thursday. Nonetheless, models
are latching onto a well-defined wave with widespread ascent and
moderate to locally heavy QPF from the RGV eastward, mainly
Thursday night and Friday. Max temps during this period will also
be below normal. Burn scar flash flooding will remain a big
concern, especially for the recent fires in the Ruidoso area.

Upper level high pressure is then expected to build westward back
into NM with much warmer temps for the weekend. Enough moisture will
be lingering over the area for daily rounds of showers and storms
around the high terrain and nearby highlands. Extended models show a
598dm H5 high center over central/western NM by Monday and Tuesday
with potential for more Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Gusty aftn winds will decrease through the evening hours. A
dryline located near the TX border may give rise to isold tstms
this evening, with activity moving into TX aft initiation. Some
cells may be capable of producing strong winds and large hail.
Expect activity to diminish aft 19/03Z. A backdoor front will dive
into the ern plains tonight bringing a nely wind shift and higher
moisture. Low cigs are expected in the wake of this front as it
surges swd and wwd overnight, impacting ern terminals, including
KTCC and KLVS. The front`s surge wwd will bring a light ely and
sely wind to KABQ and KSAF, respectively, in the early morning
hours. Increased moisture and instability will allow for isold to
sct tstms across the central mts and ewd tomorrow aftn, some of
which will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. FU from
area wildfires may cause slight reductions in vis overnight and
into tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions today will
improve thru late this evening as winds relax and humidity slowly
rises. A strong backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM late
tonight and usher in much better moisture to the central mountain
chain for Wednesday. The coverage of showers and storms with wetting
footprints will increase first over the plains. Another surge of
moisture will shift west across NM Wednesday night and Thursday with
more widespread showers and storms possible. Abundant moisture
from a remnant tropical wave may then spread significant rainfall
across all of central and eastern NM Thursday and Friday. Locally
heavy rainfall will increase the risk for burn scar flooding.
Temps will also be much cooler. Another ridge of high pressure
will begin building into the region by the weekend with warmer
temps along with showers and storms for some parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  94  63  91 /   0   0  10  60
Dulce...........................  47  88  50  85 /   0   5  30  50
Cuba............................  51  86  53  82 /   0   5  30  40
Gallup..........................  45  91  52  90 /   0   0   0  40
El Morro........................  50  88  56  83 /   0   0  10  40
Grants..........................  46  91  53  84 /   0   5  20  40
Quemado.........................  50  89  57  84 /   0   0  20  30
Magdalena.......................  58  90  61  81 /   0   5  30  40
Datil...........................  52  87  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
Reserve.........................  45  92  51  90 /   0   0  10  20
Glenwood........................  59  96  65  92 /   0   0  20  10
Chama...........................  45  82  47  79 /   0  10  40  60
Los Alamos......................  61  82  60  77 /   0  20  50  60
Pecos...........................  51  79  54  74 /   0  40  80  60
Cerro/Questa....................  45  79  47  77 /   5  30  60  50
Red River.......................  43  69  44  68 /   5  40  60  60
Angel Fire......................  37  71  40  72 /   5  40  70  50
Taos............................  48  85  51  82 /   0  20  60  40
Mora............................  46  73  48  71 /   5  50  80  60
Espanola........................  57  91  60  86 /   0  20  50  40
Santa Fe........................  58  83  59  77 /   0  20  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  57  86  60  82 /   0  20  60  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  90  65  84 /   0  10  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  93  65  86 /   0   5  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  95  65  89 /   0   5  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  94  66  87 /   0   5  30  30
Belen...........................  56  97  63  90 /   0   5  30  30
Bernalillo......................  62  94  65  87 /   0   5  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  56  96  61  89 /   0   5  30  30
Corrales........................  57  94  64  88 /   0   5  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  55  96  62  90 /   0   5  30  30
Placitas........................  62  89  64  83 /   0  10  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  62  93  65  86 /   0   5  30  30
Socorro.........................  64 100  67  90 /   0   5  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  82  58  76 /   0  10  50  50
Tijeras.........................  58  86  60  80 /   0  10  50  50
Edgewood........................  57  84  58  77 /   0  20  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  85  54  78 /   0  20  50  60
Clines Corners..................  51  75  54  71 /   0  30  70  60
Mountainair.....................  56  87  58  78 /   0  10  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  54  87  56  78 /   0  20  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  63  93  64  82 /   0  20  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  56  71 /   0  30  60  70
Capulin.........................  51  70  54  74 /  30  70  70  40
Raton...........................  52  76  54  77 /  20  60  60  40
Springer........................  54  77  56  79 /  20  60  80  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  74  54  71 /   5  50  90  70
Clayton.........................  57  76  59  79 /  40  60  60  30
Roy.............................  58  75  58  74 /  30  60  90  60
Conchas.........................  64  83  61  79 /  20  50  80  60
Santa Rosa......................  62  82  61  74 /   5  40  80  70
Tucumcari.......................  64  82  61  80 /  10  40  70  40
Clovis..........................  66  85  63  78 /  20  30  50  50
Portales........................  67  87  63  78 /  20  30  50  50
Fort Sumner.....................  67  88  64  78 /   5  40  60  60
Roswell.........................  71  94  69  80 /   0  20  50  60
Picacho.........................  62  89  61  75 /   0  40  60  80
Elk.............................  59  87  57  73 /   0  40  50  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
night for NMZ219.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...12