Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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176 FXUS65 KABQ 141932 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1232 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 - One more day of near record high temperatures is forecast in the Roswell, Clovis, and Portales area Saturday. - Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected over western and north central New Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. A few inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly north of I-40. - Rain and mountain snow showers may become more widespread Tuesday through Thursday as another storm system crosses the state. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1053 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 A ridge of high pressure will linger overhead through Saturday, but high temperatures will begin to trend downward on Saturday across northeast and east central areas behind a backdoor cold front. As a result, any lingering near record high temperatures on Saturday should favor southeast areas including Clovis, Portales, and Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 Rain and high terrain snow showers are expected over western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night, with spottier activity over central parts of the forecast area, as an upper level trough sweeps northeastward through the Four Corners region. Most places should receive under 0.15" of rain and liquid equivalent precipitation, except for locally higher amounts up to a half inch or so in the Tusas Mountains and far Northwest Highlands. Temperatures at 700 mb will remain above freezing until Sunday night, when they will gradually fall around -2 to -4 C as a gusty Pacific cold front crosses NM. As a result, only an inch or two of snow accumulation are forecast above 8500 feet with locally higher amounts around 3 inches on the high ridgeline of the Tusas Mountains. In addition, Southwest winds will strengthen Sunday, and especially Sunday night. Peak gusts will probably reach up to 35 mph in some places Sunday afternoon. Then, there is a better than 50% chance that a ribbon of west wind gusts over 50 mph will develop on the upper east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Sunday night into Monday morning as westerly flow aloft strengthens over the central mountain chain. West wind gusts up to 40 mph will then favor the east central highlands and plains Monday afternoon. Models then vary on the depth and timing of an upper level trough that may bring more widespread, but not necessarily heavier, precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. Ensemble clusters are fairly evenly distributed between solutions that lean a little more heavily toward a track directly over the forecast area, or perhaps passing mostly north of the forecast area, like the operational runs of the European and Canadian Models. Clusters, and the AI GFS Model, also indicate the operational run of the GFS Model`s more southerly track of the upper trough is a less likely outlier. Thus, at this time some fairly widespread light precipitation looks like it will develop along and west of the central mountain chain Tuesday and Tuesday night, then spreading to include areas farther east as well Wednesday through Thursday. Snow levels will probably also drop into the -2 to -4 C range again with the passage of a Pacific cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night keeping snow accumulation levels mostly above 8500 feet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 With the ridge of high pressure lingering overhead, pockets of critically low minimum humidity are forecast to return to the eastern plains on Saturday. Humidities will then climb above 15 percent Saturday night through the week ahead. The higher humidities will mitigate the impact of the stronger winds Sunday through Monday, especially with temperatures also trending cooler. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are expected to continue each day through Wednesday, except for ventilation improvement with the stronger winds on Sunday. Widespread poor ventilation looks increasingly likely for Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 60 Dulce........................... 26 68 29 60 / 0 0 0 50 Cuba............................ 35 67 36 61 / 0 0 0 40 Gallup.......................... 30 67 35 58 / 0 0 0 60 El Morro........................ 36 66 37 58 / 0 0 0 50 Grants.......................... 30 70 33 62 / 0 0 0 40 Quemado......................... 34 68 38 58 / 0 0 0 40 Magdalena....................... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 37 66 37 57 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 33 71 36 61 / 0 0 0 40 Glenwood........................ 38 76 41 66 / 0 0 0 40 Chama........................... 32 63 31 55 / 0 0 0 40 Los Alamos...................... 42 65 40 60 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 40 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 64 37 59 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 33 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 24 64 24 58 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 29 68 31 63 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 38 68 35 64 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 33 72 34 68 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 43 67 41 61 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 71 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 34 73 36 71 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 40 73 41 69 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 34 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 39 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 36 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 44 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 41 72 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 42 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 37 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 38 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 69 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 40 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 74 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 70 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 38 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 71 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 33 74 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 38 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 38 75 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 79 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 79 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 47 81 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 44 82 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 81 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 44 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 81 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 43 80 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44