Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
169 FXUS65 KABQ 290646 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1246 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast and portions of east central NM this afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. - Flash flood threat increases Friday through the weekend in central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trend higher. - An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week with a continued flash flood threat, especially on area burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 00Z upper air analysis shows the Monsoon high parked over southern NM at around 594dam at 500mb. PWATs are on the uptrend thanks to Pacific moisture rotating east around the Monsoon high circulation and a weak backdoor front, currently making westward progress across eastern NM. The increase in PWATs to above normal will bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage today, especially along/east of the central mountain chain where the backdoor front will help with forcing, shear and instability given dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 60s behind the boundary. The SPC has outlooked northeast and much of east central NM for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today and this matches well with the latest CAMs. Timing of severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains will be 4-9PM and the primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area today, but the latest CAMs all show convective initiation east of the burn scars with motion toward the east. That said, the ingredients for locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding in the Ruidoso area are all in place for today. The Monsoon high is forecast to weaken some tonight into Saturday and begin to drift northwest into AZ. Another backdoor front is forecast to move into northeast NM Saturday, which will help to force convection near the TX border across the northeast and east central plains, where a few storms will likely become strong to severe and produce locally heavy rainfall. Another Flash Flood Watch will likely be required for the Ruidoso area on Saturday given the high PWAT atmosphere and slow storm motion, but portions of the eastern plains may need to be included as well given the presence of a boundary to focus deep convection. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Convection will persist through Saturday evening across the east central and southeast plains, along with a severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat. The combination of the backdoor front and thunderstorm outflow is modeled to progress west to near the Continental Divide Saturday night, setting the stage for a more active day across central NM on Sunday with the potential for more locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. By Mon/Tue, the upper high will be centered over AZ/UT with a highly amplified ridge that extends north through the Great Basin into British Columbia as a troughing pattern becomes entrenched across the central and eastern US. This synoptic pattern will change steering flow across our area such that some locales that missed-out on the weekend rains may benefit, but drier air aloft moving in will bring a downtrend in PWATs and storm coverage. However, a more notable backdoor front will move in Wednesday night and recharge moisture across the area, bringing improved chances for showers and storms going into Thu/Fri. Daytime temperatures will trend down below normal areawide next week due to lower pressure heights the aforementioned backdoor cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Multiple cloud layers and scattered showers will persist across much of the area with increasing thunderstorm probabilities Friday afternoon and evening, especially across eastern NM. Areas of low stratus currently expanding across eastern NM will bring MVFR and potentially short-lived IFR cigs to KLVS, KTCC and possibly KROW through Friday morning. MVFR conditions are possible in sct/num thunderstorms Friday as well, especially along/east of the central mountain chain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern persists. Good chances for wetting storms will favor areas along/east of the central mountain chain through the weekend. Humidity and chances for wetting rain will trend up for much of western NM next week as moisture advances further north and west across the state. Humidity recovery will generally be good to excellent through much of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 58 86 57 / 20 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 43 83 44 / 40 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 83 51 81 51 / 50 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 84 52 84 50 / 30 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 82 54 81 54 / 60 20 30 10 Grants.......................... 85 54 84 54 / 60 20 30 10 Quemado......................... 82 54 81 54 / 70 20 40 20 Magdalena....................... 85 59 82 59 / 80 40 50 30 Datil........................... 82 54 81 54 / 80 30 50 30 Reserve......................... 90 54 89 53 / 80 20 50 20 Glenwood........................ 95 59 93 59 / 60 20 50 20 Chama........................... 77 45 78 44 / 50 10 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 80 58 79 56 / 60 20 30 20 Pecos........................... 81 54 80 53 / 60 30 40 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 50 78 49 / 70 30 60 50 Red River....................... 69 43 68 42 / 80 30 70 50 Angel Fire...................... 74 42 73 43 / 80 30 60 50 Taos............................ 82 49 81 49 / 60 20 40 40 Mora............................ 76 48 76 48 / 70 40 60 60 Espanola........................ 87 56 86 56 / 50 20 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 82 58 81 58 / 50 30 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 56 85 56 / 50 30 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 66 88 66 / 50 30 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 64 89 64 / 50 30 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 63 91 64 / 50 30 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 65 89 64 / 50 30 10 20 Belen........................... 94 62 91 61 / 50 40 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 93 63 90 63 / 50 30 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 93 61 90 61 / 50 40 20 20 Corrales........................ 93 63 91 64 / 50 30 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 93 62 90 62 / 50 40 20 20 Placitas........................ 87 62 86 61 / 50 30 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 92 64 89 63 / 50 30 20 20 Socorro......................... 95 65 92 65 / 60 50 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 57 82 56 / 60 30 30 30 Tijeras......................... 85 59 83 59 / 60 40 30 30 Edgewood........................ 84 54 84 55 / 50 40 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 52 85 54 / 60 40 30 40 Clines Corners.................. 79 55 78 54 / 60 40 40 50 Mountainair..................... 84 56 84 56 / 70 50 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 84 57 84 56 / 70 60 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 89 63 86 61 / 70 60 60 60 Ruidoso......................... 76 57 77 56 / 80 60 80 70 Capulin......................... 74 53 71 50 / 80 80 70 80 Raton........................... 80 52 76 50 / 80 60 70 70 Springer........................ 80 53 79 52 / 70 50 60 70 Las Vegas....................... 77 52 77 51 / 70 50 60 70 Clayton......................... 79 59 78 57 / 60 90 40 70 Roy............................. 76 56 78 55 / 60 70 50 80 Conchas......................... 84 62 84 61 / 50 70 40 90 Santa Rosa...................... 85 60 83 59 / 60 60 50 80 Tucumcari....................... 85 60 81 58 / 30 80 30 90 Clovis.......................... 83 64 86 62 / 30 70 40 90 Portales........................ 85 64 87 63 / 40 70 50 90 Fort Sumner..................... 87 64 86 62 / 40 70 40 80 Roswell......................... 92 67 91 66 / 30 70 50 80 Picacho......................... 84 62 85 60 / 70 60 70 70 Elk............................. 81 58 82 56 / 70 60 80 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11