835
FXUS65 KABQ 251119 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
519 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow
  moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM
  through this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Light showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this
morning, and this activity will continue through the overnight
hours.

A very active Saturday remains in store for the Land of
Enchantment. A 599-600 dam H5 high resides over CO while a weak
upper low/MCV over SE NM will slowly drift westward through the
day. Though models are at odds with where exactly this feature
ends up by late in the afternoon, all signs suggest that this
feature will aid in another round of heavy rainfall for portions
of western NM. Near record-breaking PWATs, LI`s around -3 to -5
and slow and erratic storm motions will result in pockets of
rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches. This will be especially
problematic if these pockets of heavier rainfall occur in
vulnerable areas such as Zuni Pueblo and Gallup that have already
received abundant rainfall over the last 7-10 days. Hi-Res models
also suggest this will be another active day for the burn scars
surrounding Ruidoso, with activity starting around the noon hour.
REFS and HREF LPMM output show over an inch of rainfall on the
west side of both the South Fork and Salt burn scars. Storm motion
will depend exactly on where the low/MCV ends up, but confidence
is high that this area will see additional rainfall on already
saturated soils today. Flood Watches have already been issued for
these areas. Meanwhile, the upper high will allow for
temperatures to climb, with upper 90s or triple digit heat
expected for eastern NM. Even mid to upper 90s will be in store
for the Rio Grande Valley.

On Sunday, the upper high may weaken a touch to 598dam, and drier
air will filter into eastern NM around the high. The NAM, and to
some extent other models, show the aforementioned upper low still
loitering around the AZ/NM border Sunday afternoon with PWATs
remaining well above late July normals. But curiously, most models
are not quite as active as today. Instability could be a bit of a
question mark as the NAM shows nearly moist- adiabatic mid level
lapse rates across west central NM with the cloud cover not
completing eroding in the morning. It is the outlier, though it
did pick up on this low earlier than any other models earlier this
week, so it shouldn`t be ruled out. Nonetheless, the atmosphere
will remain plenty capable of still producing heavy rainfall in
small footprints Sunday afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms remain forecast for the northern and western
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The upper high will meander near or over NM through the end of the
week. It does appear PWATs will trend down slightly on Monday, but
will continue to hover at or just above an inch through the end of
the week. This moisture beneath the high will allow for daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the northern and
western mountains through at least Thursday. An outflow boundary
may push into northeast NM on Friday which will increase chances
for thunderstorm activity there. The moisture combined with
continued slow storm motions will allow for localized heavy
rainfall, and couldn`t rule out a few flash floods throughout the
week. Additionally, temperatures will remain hot. Triple digit
heat is on tap for the Rio Grande Valley and eastern NM each day.
Heat Advisories will also be likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A few showers continue near and south of I-40 this morning, but
much of the activity has ended. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this morning and early this
afternoon. Storms will favor areas along and west of the Central
Mountain Chain. Storm motion will be slow and erratic. The
strongest storms will be capable of gusty outflows in excess of
35kt, small hail and IFR vsbys in heavy rainfall. Storms will
slowly diminish in coverage and intensity late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the
foreseeable future. Rather, showers and thunderstorms are expected
daily. These storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall,
gusty and erratic winds as well as frequent lightning. Storms
will develop over the high terrain before moving onto nearby
lowlands each afternoon. Storm motion will be slow and erratic and
heavily reliant on outflow boundaries. Patchy dry fuels may still
be susceptible to new fire starts from the lightning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  69  97  67 /  10  30  20  20
Dulce...........................  90  58  94  57 /  60  20  60  30
Cuba............................  87  61  90  61 /  30  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  92  61  90  60 /  50  30  50  20
El Morro........................  86  58  86  58 /  80  40  70  30
Grants..........................  90  61  91  60 /  60  50  50  20
Quemado.........................  88  60  87  60 /  80  30  60  30
Magdalena.......................  88  64  89  64 /  50  40  50  10
Datil...........................  86  59  85  59 /  70  40  60  10
Reserve.........................  90  61  93  62 /  70  30  70  30
Glenwood........................  94  65  97  66 /  60  40  50  30
Chama...........................  84  55  86  54 /  70  20  70  40
Los Alamos......................  89  64  90  64 /  30  20  30  30
Pecos...........................  88  59  91  60 /  40  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  87  56  88  55 /  60  20  40  40
Red River.......................  78  49  80  48 /  50  10  60  40
Angel Fire......................  81  46  85  46 /  40  10  50  20
Taos............................  91  59  92  59 /  40  10  30  30
Mora............................  86  56  89  57 /  30  10  30  20
Espanola........................  94  66  97  66 /  30  20  10  30
Santa Fe........................  89  62  91  62 /  40  20  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  93  63  94  63 /  40  20   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  68  97  69 /  40  30   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  71  97  72 /  30  30   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  71 100  72 /  20  30   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  70  98  71 /  20  30   0  10
Belen...........................  97  70  99  70 /  20  30   0  10
Bernalillo......................  96  68  99  69 /  30  30   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  97  69  98  70 /  20  30   0  10
Corrales........................  95  69 100  70 /  20  30   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  97  69  98  69 /  20  40   0  10
Placitas........................  93  66  95  66 /  40  30   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  95  69  99  69 /  20  30   5  20
Socorro.........................  96  71 101  71 /  20  30  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  62  91  63 /  40  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  90  64  91  64 /  40  30  10  10
Edgewood........................  90  61  94  62 /  40  40  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  59  95  60 /  30  40  10  10
Clines Corners..................  88  61  90  62 /  30  30  10  20
Mountainair.....................  88  62  93  63 /  40  40  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  89  62  91  63 /  30  30  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  90  68  93  69 /  40  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  82  62  86  64 /  60  20  40  10
Capulin.........................  93  61  93  61 /   5   5  20  10
Raton...........................  97  60  98  60 /   5   5  20  10
Springer........................  98  61  99  61 /   5  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  89  59  92  59 /  10  10  20  20
Clayton......................... 100  69 102  69 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  95  65  95  65 /   5   5   5  10
Conchas......................... 102  71 103  71 /   5  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  98  69  98  69 /   5  10   0   0
Tucumcari....................... 103  73 102  73 /   5  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  98  69 100  69 /   5   5   0   0
Portales........................  98  70 101  70 /   5   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  99  71 100  71 /   5  10   0   0
Roswell......................... 101  73 102  73 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  68  96  68 /  20   5  10   0
Elk.............................  87  65  93  66 /  20   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ202-
204>206-208-209.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34