282
FXUS65 KABQ 271752 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding
  will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper high center will shift over north central NM today and
weaken to around 597dam. PWATs have come down slightly (down to
1.1 inches on the 00Z ABQ sounding) and the MCV that has been a
focus for thunderstorms over the last few days has finally moved
away from NM. Models suggest thunderstorm coverage will trend
down a bit from Sunday, but with PWATs remaining above an inch,
and continued slow and erratic storm motion, there remains
potential for heavy rainfall in the storms that do develop. Storms
should favor the high terrain, particularly the northern and
western high terrain, this afternoon. There is not enough
confidence for a Flood Watch for any given area, but small
footprints of heavy rainfall are likely.

The other story for today will be the heat. Heat Advisories have
been issued for much of central and eastern NM where triple digit
heat is forecast. The only change with this forecast package was
that Union County was added to the Heat Advisory. The forecast
high of 104 degrees at Clayton is technically a degree below
criteria, but the ALL-TIME high temperature at Clayton is only
105 degrees which has only been hit twice and both times were more
than 90 years ago. 104 degrees would certainly be a record for
the date. Record breaking high temps are also forecast for several
other locations.

An outflow boundary is poised to push into northeast NM late
tonight into Tuesday morning. This may spark a few storms
overnight across NE NM, but the boundary is expected to push
through much of the eastern plains and nudge up to the Central
Mountain Chain prior to the noon hour on Tuesday. Moist upslope
flow onto the Central Mountain Chain should help set the stage for
a more active Tuesday. Storms should develop along the Central
Mountain Chain and shift slowly southeastward over the eastern
highlands and plains. The boundary itself may also be a focus for
storm development somewhere across the plains pending where it
stalls. Moreover, convection over Mexico late Monday will send a
vort max northwestward around the high. While this looks to
mainly impact AZ, it should have some minor influence to increase
convection and PWATs across the Southwest Mountains of NM Tuesday
afternoon. Outflows from the convection across eastern NM should
push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, which may
meet with outflows from the convection across the southwest
increasing chances for precipitation across central NM in the
evening, including around ABQ. Typical monsoon hazards are
expected, including heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds.

Despite the convection, it will still be quite hot as temps will
warm up early. Another set of Heat Advisories are expected to be
issued with later shifts across portions of central and eastern
NM. At least a few locations are expected to break their daily
high temperature record once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Storms will be slow to wind down Tuesday night but should taper
off by sunrise Wednesday. The upper high will still be meandering
over NM but looks to weaken to around 596dam by Wednesday. Plenty
of moisture beneath this high will allow for scattered to numerous
storms over the high terrain. Storm motions will still be slow and
PWATs will remain at or above 1 inch, so heavy rainfall will
remain in play. More of the same in store for Thursday, but the
upper high will begin to shift westward, centering over western NM
by the afternoon. A boundary over northeast NM will be an
additional focus for storm activity and this boundary should push
southward across the eastern plains Thursday night. Triple digit
heat will continue across portions of central and eastern NM both
Wed and Thu.

The upper high will strengthen as it shifts northwestward on
Friday to near 600dam. Temps will get a bump across western NM as
a result. Meanwhile, the boundary nudging up to the Central
Mountain Chain will be a focus for more thunderstorm activity once
again. Outflows will result in a gap wind in the Rio Grande
Valley, which will push low level moisture westward. As a result
Saturday looks to be quite active areawide as well, though finally
with a little more storm motion. Drier air may filter in from the
northeast on Sunday, reducing thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A meager crop of SHRA/TS is expected today with a sharper focus
on the high terrain thru sunset. Storm motion will be slow and
erratic with gusty outflow winds and heavy rain still possible
from a direct hit. A convective outflow boundary will move south
into northeast NM this evening then settle along the central mt
chain by sunrise Tuesday. Isolated SHRA/TS may redevelop after
midnight along the boundary as it moves southwest thru northern
and eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week. An upper level high meandering over and near NM will keep
temperatures at or above normal through the week. Moisture beneath
the high will fuel daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The
most active days look to be Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. Slow
storm motions can be expected through Thursday, then storms will
start moving toward the south and southwest starting Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be the rule.
Lightning may still cause new fires in pockets of dry fuel.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  69 100  69 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  95  57  97  56 /   0   5  10  30
Cuba............................  93  63  94  62 /   0   0  10  40
Gallup..........................  91  62  92  60 /   5  10  50  30
El Morro........................  87  60  89  59 /  20  20  70  50
Grants..........................  92  64  93  62 /  20  10  50  50
Quemado.........................  88  62  89  61 /  10  20  70  30
Magdalena.......................  91  69  92  67 /  20  20  30  40
Datil...........................  87  65  87  62 /  10  20  70  40
Reserve.........................  94  61  95  60 /  30  20  70  30
Glenwood........................  99  65 100  63 /  20  20  60  30
Chama...........................  88  56  88  55 /  10   5  30  40
Los Alamos......................  93  69  93  67 /  30  20  50  50
Pecos...........................  96  64  92  61 /   5  10  70  30
Cerro/Questa....................  91  61  89  59 /  10  40  50  60
Red River.......................  87  51  84  50 /  30  40  70  60
Angel Fire......................  86  53  84  49 /  20  20  80  30
Taos............................  95  61  92  59 /   5  20  40  40
Mora............................  91  61  88  58 /  20  20  80  30
Espanola........................ 100  69 100  67 /  10  20  40  40
Santa Fe........................  94  69  93  66 /   0  10  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  97  67  97  64 /   0  10  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills........... 101  73 101  71 /   0   5  40  50
Albuquerque Heights............. 101  72 101  70 /   0   5  40  50
Albuquerque Valley.............. 104  71 103  69 /   0   5  30  50
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101  73 102  71 /   0   5  30  50
Belen........................... 102  71 103  69 /   0   5  20  50
Bernalillo...................... 103  72 103  70 /   0   5  40  50
Bosque Farms.................... 103  70 102  67 /   0   5  30  50
Corrales........................ 104  72 104  71 /   0   5  40  50
Los Lunas....................... 103  72 102  69 /   0   5  20  50
Placitas........................  99  72  99  69 /   0   5  40  50
Rio Rancho...................... 102  72 102  70 /   0   5  30  50
Socorro......................... 103  76 104  74 /  10  20  20  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  94  68  93  65 /   0  10  50  50
Tijeras.........................  97  66  97  63 /   0   5  50  50
Edgewood........................  98  64  97  61 /  10  10  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  98  61  97  59 /   5  10  60  50
Clines Corners..................  92  63  91  60 /   5  20  60  40
Mountainair.....................  96  64  96  61 /   0  20  50  60
Gran Quivira....................  94  66  94  63 /   0  20  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  98  72  98  69 /   0   5  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  91  67  91  64 /  20   5  20  10
Capulin.........................  95  61  89  58 /  20  30  80  70
Raton........................... 100  61  94  58 /  20  30  80  40
Springer........................ 101  63  96  60 /  10  20  80  40
Las Vegas.......................  96  63  92  60 /  10  30  70  40
Clayton......................... 104  69  98  67 /   5  20  20  50
Roy.............................  98  68  95  64 /   0  20  50  50
Conchas......................... 106  71 103  67 /   0  10  30  50
Santa Rosa...................... 103  69 100  66 /   0  10  10  30
Tucumcari....................... 107  72 104  70 /   0   5   5  40
Clovis.......................... 105  70 104  69 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................ 106  72 105  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 105  72 104  70 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell......................... 107  75 106  74 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho......................... 101  70 101  69 /   5   5   5   0
Elk.............................  98  68  98  66 /  10   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ204>209-211-212-214-215-218-221-228-229-241.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-217-219-221-
227-228-230>238.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ217-219-220-
234>238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42