649
FXUS65 KABQ 020014
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 446 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Heavier rainfall will return today through Monday morning across
  western to north central New Mexico. Given saturated soils,
  localized flooding from persistent rainfall will continue in
  these areas with significant river flooding.

- Severe thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern New
  Mexico this afternoon and tonight, bringing a threat for hail,
  damaging winds and tornadoes.

- A few inches of snow will fall over the northern mountains above
  9000 feet Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1213 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Unsettled weather will continue unfolding across northern and
central New Mexico through the day into tonight and Monday. A
subtropical shortwave is racing northeastward via the subtropical
jet, moving into AZ and slated to move into north central NM
through the early evening. This continues to bring up anomalously
moist conditions with this morning`s 12Z raob showing a PWAT of
1.08, shattering the previous daily record by more than two tenths
of an inch. This does have to be put into context though, as
PWATs this time of year are not typically as high as during the
monsoon. That being said, this is setting up a significant
precipitation event, especially for northwestern to north central
areas of NM where there are still saturated soils and river
flooding recoveries ongoing. A separate deep and vast Pacific low
pressure system is also moving out of CA and into NV, producing
strong upward forcing into AZ and NM. Model projections take the
large ongoing swath of stratiform rain over AZ and western NM and
evolve it into a convective line oriented north northeast to south
southwest this afternoon as instability increases. The line of
storms will work over the Continental Divide this afternoon,
moving into the Rio Grande valley and overtaking the central
mountain chain by early evening. The line is then projected to
move into the eastern plains late this evening and out of NM
through the very early morning hours.

The RAP analysis is already showing 500 J/kg of MLCAPE in the Rio
Grande valley, and these values climb through the afternoon, this
will help fuel strong to severe cells within the QLCS with plenty
of deep layer speed shear (40-60 kt in 0-6 km layer) and healthy
0-3 km helicity (150-250m2/s2) to keep a tornado risk with the
line.

As for hydrology concerns, the Flood Watch remains out through
noon Monday, and a few River Flood Warnings have already been
issued for north central to northwestern NM. Again, saturated
soils and swollen rivers in northwestern to north central NM will
remain of high concern through and perhaps beyond this time with
additional rainfall amounts ranging from 0.5 in in the San Juan
valley upwards of 2.5 inches in the San Juans and Tusas mountains
of CO/NM which will produce longer duration runoff beyond the
immediate shorter duration downpours received through this
evening.

Not to be forgotten, but winds will also pose impacts with
prevailing gusts of 35 to 50 mph being common through the
afternoon. The Wind Advisory was expanded in the northeastern
highlands near the I-25 corridor (Raton to Las Vegas), and a High
Wind Warning has also been issued for the Sacramento mountains
which may encroach upon gusts of 50-60 mph for later tonight into
early Monday. Convective outflows and downbursts will also pose
wind concerns with gusts of 60+ mph within reach from the QLCS
through the evening.

Into the day Monday, precipitation will have mostly waned in
eastern NM with spotty coverage in central areas while the focus
will have shifted to north central areas due to wrap-around
dynamics associated with the upper low. The cold upper low and
Pacific front will have swept through before daybreak Monday,
causing rain to changeover to snow in higher elevations. Snow
accumulations look to mostly be confined to 9,000-10,000 ft and
higher where 1 to 6 inches seem reasonable. Another slew of Wind
Advisories will also likely be needed for the central highlands
into the eastern plains, including the I-40 corridor east of
Clines Corners. Precipitation will taper off from west to east
Monday evening as the low exits eastward, but winds will remain
brisk in the far northeast corner of NM overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

The pattern turns considerably more tranquil into Tuesday with
lighter and drier northwest flow aloft prevailing. Skies will turn
clear through the late morning with batches of high cirrus filling
in later in the day. Surface breezes will be much more subdued,
and temperatures will run just a couple to a few degrees below
early November climatology.

We continue to assess model solutions and their depiction of a
closed low that moves inland off of the Pacific and crosses the
Great Basin into the central Rockies by Wednesday. This feature
does look to host some baroclinicity with its 90-100 kt jet streak
rounding its base, but overall precipitation looks to remain
confined within the core of the low due to weaker and
unestablished dynamics aloft. This would keep most of the
precipitation in UT and CO, with just isolated to scattered POPs
for our northern NM zones through Wednesday night. Guidance does
not advertise very strong winds for Wednesday, but this will need
to be monitored, as upper level momentum will be increasing.

Slightly cooler air would filter into NM on the backside of this
departing low by Thursday. Daytime temperatures would still run
near to just slightly below normal on Thursday with light to
moderate breezes prevailing.

Dry west northwest flow looks to prevail into Friday and Saturday
with a weak perturbation meandering nearby, but posing no threat
for precipitation. Another wave of cooler air will filter in on
Saturday as another low drops into the central plains, but again
daytime highs will stay near to only slightly below normal. A
building ridge early next week would suggest slightly warmer
readings with tranquility persisting.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

A line of TSRA has moved through portions of central New Mexico
moving east of ABQ, AEG, and SAF terminals. -SHRA and -RA will
linger the next couple of hours behind this line of TSRA. Further
development of -SHRA (west to east) is expected late this evening
into the early morning hours which may impact FMN, GUP, ABQ, AEG,
and SAF terminals. Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds look to
shift more southerly across central NM sites by 06-07Z.
Implemented a -TSRA PROB30 at ROW given lower confidence as the
line weakens farther eastward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Widespread rain is overtaking far western NM into north central
portions of the state where soggy soils and fuels will persist
along with a threat of long duration flooding through tonight,
Monday, and Tuesday. Elsewhere rainfall amounts will be of shorter
duration, but still scattered to widespread as a north-south
oriented line of storms sweeps eastward through the afternoon and
evening. In the wake of these storms, additional waves of lighter
rain and mountain snow will redevelop over northwestern to north
central NM late tonight into Monday. Excellent humidity recovery
will develop tonight through Monday morning. Wind concerns will
exist, mainly today and Monday with southerly winds this afternoon
transitioning more westerly this evening behind a Pacific front,
gradually turning more northwesterly into Monday when gusts of 35
to 55 mph will be common. Highest gusts on Monday will be in the
eastern half of the state, but fortunately humidity will be
elevated and fuels moist enough to prevent critical fire weather
concerns. Other than a few showers in northern zones on Wednesday
and a couple of bouts of slightly, and nearly negligibly, cooler
air on Thursday and Saturday, there are not many noteworthy
impacts looming ahead for the rest of this week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...99