Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
690 FXUS65 KABQ 291926 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 126 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast and portions of east central NM this afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. - Flash flood threat increases today through the weekend in central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trends higher. - An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week with a continued flash flood threat, especially on area burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have begun to initiate across the high terrain this afternoon, with already a couple of strong to severe storms forming. This activity has been well modeled, thinking back to CAM runs yesterday at this time. This bodes well for the confidence in development of numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across much of the eastern plains. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms continues across much of east central and northeast NM, where SBCAPE values exceed 3000 J/kg and bulk shear values bump up to 30-35kts. Primary hazards with any storm will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall is also a hazard with these storms, and the atmosphere is ripe for efficient rainfall rates. The ABQ 18z sounding produced a PWAT of 1.13" well into the 90th percentile. Model forecast soundings show PWATs increasing up to 1.5" across eastern NM, further showcasing the moist column of air that resides across the region. Storm motion is likely to be around 10-20mph to the east, which may be enough to move storms off of one area before it dumps enough rain to produce flash flooding. However, multiple rounds/training storms are very possible in this environment, as well as storms getting stuck on remnant boundaries. These factors would increase a flash flooding threat across much of eastern NM, where a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is placed. HREF mean QPF shows areas of 1-2" across the TX bordering counties (Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt). This remains below the general flash flood guidance for the region, though instances of localized flash flooding is very possible. Though with the initial isolated nature expected this evening into tonight, have opted against a Flash Flood Watch for that area. Storms are expected to completely exit the area by midnight or so. Saturday is appearing to have a higher potential for flash flooding across the area, both on and off burn scars. For the Ruidoso area, while models kept the storms off of the scars for today (Friday), they have been painting initiation over the scars themselves for Saturday, increasing the risk of burn scar flash flooding. With that, a second Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the area, though has a good chance of ending earlier than Friday`s given a low signal for any evening storms. For the HPCC burn scar, there is moderate confidence in late afternoon storms firing up in the area, but with not enough confidence and the higher rainfall amounts that the scar can absorb, have opted against a Watch this package and will let future shifts contemplate. Off of the scars, in eastern NM, model guidance has consistently painted an broken to organized band of thunderstorms moving through the area, mainly I-40 southward, in the late hours of Saturday night. PWAT values are forecast to remain near or above 1.5" allowing for efficient rainfall rates to continue. Forecast soundings also have shown the potential for a "long and skinny" CAPE profile, which continues to promote heavy and efficient rainfall. HREF mean rainfall for this system range around 0.5-2" given the potential broken nature of it. Antecedent wet soils from Friday`s rainfall could exacerbate any flash flooding that may occur with this heavy rain. Also, given this is likely to occur overnight, folks should have multiple ways to receive warnings. While currently less of a concern, a forward propagating MCS could inherit strong to severe wind gusts, which is another hazard for folks to take note of. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The high pressure system that has sat over southern NM for the latter part of this week begins to shift westward, allowing for a slight pattern shift in our thunderstorms. With a more northwesterly flow, storm motions begin to take on a more southeasterly to southerly component. With the potential for easterly surface flow, this may work to increase shear across the area, allowing a few strong to potentially severe storms to form. Burn scar flash flooding also remains possible to likely, mainly across the Ruidoso area as storms continue to fire up along the Sacramento Mountains. A slight change from Saturday to Sunday is that, with the high pressure moving westward, the moisture settled in eastern NM gets siphoned into southern NM, greatly increasing the rain chances across the southern third of the state. Daily thunderstorms continue through much of next week as the high pressure rotates around the Great Basin, though will likely be closer to standard diurnal thunderstorms in a typical monsoon pattern. Models have been consistent in shoving a backdoor cold front through the state later next week, which would work to replenish moisture and increase storm chances. Overall, a daily and active thunderstorm pattern appears prone to continue through the next several days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region today, mainly Continental Divide eastward. Most TAF sites are under PROB30s or TEMPOs based on expected surrounding shower and thunderstorm activity, with higher confidence in sites along and east of the central mountain chain. Storms are very likely to push eastward across eastern NM late afternoon and into this evening. Localized MVFR to short-lived IFR visibilities are possible in any storm. A few storms may be strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity likely wanes and exits the state by 06z. Lower confidence tonight in a low stratus deck causing MFVR to IFR ceilings, but probabilities increase closer to the NM/TX border throughout the night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days. Daily rounds of thunderstorms are likely across much of the state, mainly east of the Continental Divide. These will very likely leave large wetting footprints, with some locations experiencing localized flash flooding. Burn scar flash flooding also remains a concern, mainly in the Ruidoso area. Humidity recovery is expected to remain good to excellent for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 84 57 87 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 82 44 84 / 10 10 5 10 Cuba............................ 51 81 52 80 / 20 10 0 20 Gallup.......................... 52 84 51 85 / 10 5 0 5 El Morro........................ 53 80 54 80 / 30 20 5 30 Grants.......................... 53 84 53 83 / 30 20 5 40 Quemado......................... 54 82 54 82 / 30 30 10 50 Magdalena....................... 58 82 59 79 / 50 40 30 70 Datil........................... 53 80 53 77 / 40 50 20 70 Reserve......................... 53 89 53 88 / 30 50 10 60 Glenwood........................ 58 92 59 90 / 20 50 20 70 Chama........................... 45 77 44 77 / 10 20 10 40 Los Alamos...................... 56 78 56 76 / 30 20 10 60 Pecos........................... 53 80 53 75 / 40 30 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 78 49 77 / 30 40 40 50 Red River....................... 43 68 41 66 / 30 50 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 38 72 37 69 / 30 50 50 60 Taos............................ 49 81 48 79 / 30 30 40 40 Mora............................ 48 76 48 70 / 40 40 60 70 Espanola........................ 56 86 56 84 / 30 10 20 40 Santa Fe........................ 57 81 57 77 / 40 20 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 84 56 81 / 30 10 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 87 65 85 / 50 20 20 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 89 64 87 / 50 10 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 91 65 89 / 50 10 10 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 89 64 87 / 50 10 10 20 Belen........................... 61 90 62 87 / 50 20 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 63 90 64 87 / 40 10 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 60 90 61 87 / 50 10 20 30 Corrales........................ 63 90 64 88 / 50 10 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 62 90 64 87 / 50 10 20 30 Placitas........................ 61 85 61 83 / 40 10 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 63 89 64 87 / 40 10 10 30 Socorro......................... 65 91 65 87 / 60 30 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 82 56 78 / 50 20 20 50 Tijeras......................... 58 83 59 80 / 50 20 20 50 Edgewood........................ 54 83 55 80 / 50 20 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 85 55 80 / 50 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 55 79 54 72 / 50 30 40 50 Mountainair..................... 56 83 56 77 / 60 30 30 60 Gran Quivira.................... 56 83 56 77 / 60 40 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 62 86 61 79 / 80 50 60 80 Ruidoso......................... 57 77 55 69 / 70 80 60 90 Capulin......................... 52 72 50 71 / 80 60 80 30 Raton........................... 52 76 51 75 / 50 70 70 40 Springer........................ 54 80 52 77 / 40 50 70 40 Las Vegas....................... 52 78 52 72 / 50 40 70 60 Clayton......................... 59 78 57 78 / 80 30 70 10 Roy............................. 55 78 54 75 / 70 40 80 30 Conchas......................... 62 85 61 81 / 80 30 90 30 Santa Rosa...................... 60 83 59 77 / 70 30 80 40 Tucumcari....................... 61 82 59 79 / 80 20 90 20 Clovis.......................... 64 87 62 82 / 80 40 90 40 Portales........................ 64 88 62 82 / 80 50 90 40 Fort Sumner..................... 63 88 62 81 / 70 30 90 30 Roswell......................... 68 92 66 83 / 70 50 80 50 Picacho......................... 61 85 60 77 / 70 70 70 80 Elk............................. 58 83 56 74 / 70 80 60 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226. Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77