Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
686 FXUS65 KABQ 090722 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 122 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - An abnormal strong plume of moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and another tropical system early next week will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central mountain chain over the next 7 days. - Marginal to slight risks of excessive rainfall threatening flash flooding mainly over portions of western NM will present each day through the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A tap of subtropical moisture advecting northward between an H5 high centered over the Big Bend area of TX and a deepening 544dm H5 low off the PacNW coast. Abundant cloud cover with pockets of patchy fog over highlands of central and western NM will persist thru the morning before beginning to break up a bit. Today`s round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along and west of the Continental Divide, as well as portions of the northern mountains southward to along the Sandia/Manzano`s this afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall where thunderstorms pass over the same areas repeatedly over the Four Corners and Navajo Nation area late today and overnight. Friday sees little change to the synoptic scale setup, but with the core of the mid-to-upper level remnant moisture of what is now TS Priscilla pushing northward across AZ and Navajo Nation. A more steady and efficient stream of showers and thunderstorms training over the same areas repeatedly relative to Thursday will yield a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall threatening flash flooding. This area is mainly focused west of the AZ/NM line but does spread into northwestern NM. 24-hr rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.00" will be possible over portions of northwestern NM Friday morning thru Friday night. There is uncertainty regarding how much moisture from Priscilla will be present as current satellite imagery already shows deep convection nearly ceasing near the center of circulation as the system moves over increasingly cooler SSTs. The threat of flash flooding could end up easily being a bit subdued if the amount of moisture ends up being underwhelming combined with relative fast steering flow to push individual storm cells along at a fast clip. Therefore, will punt decision to issue a Flash Flood Watch across northwestern NM to the day shift. Any Flash Flood Watch looks to favor the late Friday through Saturday morning timeframe however. All the while, areas along and east of the central mountain chain will get a break from precipitation chances with fairly tame weather conditions. More isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be present into portions of the Rio Grande Valley each afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Saturday begins the long term period with the closed H5 low opening to a trough as it begins its trek across the Great Basin. The tap of subtropical moisture from the EPAC will continue behind the remnants of TS Priscilla, but to a slightly lesser extent. Nevertheless, the right exit region ahead of the approaching upper level trough axis will favor continued shower and thunderstorm activity being realized within the plume of subtropical moisture over western NM. This looks to spread eastward into central NM along the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain. Yet another marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall will be present from where thunderstorms train over the same areas along and west of the central mountain chain. The slight risk will be focused for areas along and west of the Continental Divide where grounds will already likely be wet from prior rainfall today and Friday. Prevailing southerly to southwesterly winds will be stronger Saturday as well areawide due to a tightening surface pressure gradient and lee side surface low developing over eastern CO. Bursts of strong gusty winds with Saturday convection will be favored as a result. Again, areas along and east of the central mountain chain toward TX will see drier conditions but with widespread breezy to windy conditions. Saturday night into Sunday morning sees flow aloft turn westerly as the trough axis crosses the Great Basin and over the central Rocky Mts. This will steadily turn convective activity into more orographically driven showers riding up the west slopes of the high terrain of central and western NM. An overall downtick in rainfall intensities will result from this reducing the risk of excessive rainfall considerably over the area for Sunday. Areas along and east of the central mountain chain will be downsloped yielding drier conditions yet again. Numerical model guidance is however continuing the active streak going regarding tropical activity over the EPAC. What would be TC Raymond (if it becomes named) is favored to track northward toward the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California by this timeframe producing yet another plume of moisture pushing northward into at least far northwestern Mexico and into the bootheel of NM. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this will be favored to spread further north into northern and central NM later Monday and Monday night, continuing into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the overall troughing pattern over the western CONUS will be favored to remain with yet another jetmax and upper low opening to a trough crossing the western CONUS similar to Saturday and Saturday night`s forecast. The takeaway from all of this is the active wetter weather pattern will continue through the weekend and well into next week. Widespread 7-day rainfall totals look to range from at least 0.10" to 0.25" for unlucky drier spots to more generally 0.50" to 1.00" along and west of the central mountain chain. Pockets of 1.00" to 2.00" will favor southwest facing slopes of the Gila NF, Chuska Mts, and over the northern mountains reaching up into the CO San Juans. Locally heavier amounts of 2+ inches will be possible where thunderstorms train repeatedly over the same areas Friday/Saturday and again Monday/Tuesday. While this presents a notable flash flooding risk across western NM, especially where normally dry arroyos will see sudden and quick rises at times; this will present a much needed beneficial round of moisture that should make a nice dent in the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Abundant moisture remains entrenched across northern and central NM resulting in broken to overcast ceilings. Some of which are lowing to MVFR with isolated pockets of IFR expected later tonight into Thursday morning, especially favoring highland areas along mountain ranges. Cloud cover will begin to break up by Thursday afternoon as scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along and west of the Continental Divide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 No fire weather concerns through the next seven days as near record moisture levels will be present across the state. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will favor the western half of the state with drier conditions through eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 59 74 57 / 40 60 40 70 Dulce........................... 72 46 70 47 / 50 60 40 60 Cuba............................ 71 49 71 52 / 30 30 20 40 Gallup.......................... 73 52 74 52 / 50 40 30 60 El Morro........................ 68 51 71 52 / 30 20 30 50 Grants.......................... 71 50 73 52 / 30 20 30 40 Quemado......................... 71 50 74 52 / 20 10 20 30 Magdalena....................... 70 54 72 56 / 20 10 10 20 Datil........................... 67 49 70 51 / 20 10 20 30 Reserve......................... 76 49 78 51 / 20 10 20 30 Glenwood........................ 81 54 82 55 / 10 10 10 30 Chama........................... 68 45 65 45 / 40 50 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 69 53 69 55 / 20 20 20 20 Pecos........................... 70 49 70 51 / 30 20 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 49 70 50 / 30 20 20 20 Red River....................... 62 41 62 43 / 40 10 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 67 34 67 37 / 30 20 20 10 Taos............................ 73 47 72 48 / 20 20 10 20 Mora............................ 70 44 69 45 / 40 20 10 10 Espanola........................ 76 53 77 54 / 20 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 70 54 71 55 / 30 20 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 53 73 53 / 30 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 60 76 62 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 76 58 79 60 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 78 57 80 59 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 59 78 60 / 20 20 10 20 Belen........................... 78 56 80 57 / 10 10 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 77 58 79 58 / 20 20 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 77 55 80 57 / 10 10 10 10 Corrales........................ 77 58 79 59 / 20 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 77 56 80 57 / 10 10 10 10 Placitas........................ 72 57 75 58 / 20 20 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 76 58 78 59 / 20 20 10 20 Socorro......................... 79 59 81 60 / 10 10 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 52 71 53 / 20 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 70 54 72 55 / 20 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 71 50 72 50 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 49 74 47 / 20 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 68 49 70 50 / 20 10 5 10 Mountainair..................... 71 50 73 52 / 20 10 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 71 49 73 51 / 10 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 75 54 76 55 / 10 5 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 66 48 68 50 / 20 5 5 5 Capulin......................... 74 49 71 50 / 5 10 5 5 Raton........................... 76 48 75 49 / 10 10 5 10 Springer........................ 78 49 77 51 / 10 10 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 71 49 70 50 / 30 20 10 10 Clayton......................... 80 56 79 58 / 5 0 5 5 Roy............................. 74 53 74 54 / 5 5 5 5 Conchas......................... 80 54 81 57 / 5 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 75 52 76 55 / 5 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 80 54 81 57 / 5 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 80 56 81 57 / 5 0 0 5 Portales........................ 81 56 82 57 / 5 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 77 55 79 56 / 5 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 80 58 82 58 / 5 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 75 53 77 52 / 10 5 5 5 Elk............................. 71 49 73 50 / 10 10 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24