617
FXUS65 KABQ 291148 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
  heavy rainfall over southern NM Thursday, shifting to southeast
  and eastern NM Thursday night into early Friday.

- River flooding lingers over parts of central and northern New
  Mexico through at least Friday.

- Confidence continues to increase that a Pacific storm system
  will bring impactful rainfall across western NM and the Four
  Corners region late this weekend into early next week. Snow is
  favored above 10,000 feet elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Deep convection from now-TD Vance is apparent in IR satellite
imagery as it nears landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico. RAP
analysis shows that H25 winds are favorable to carry some of its
remnant moisture toward SE New Mexico and West Texas, as
previously advertised. Convection is forecast to kick off over the
Sacramento Mountains by early afternoon, where a Flood Watch for
Flash Flooding has been issued for the Ruidoso-area burn scar zone
from 12 Noon to 8 PM MDT. Various CAM runs have been consistent
for over 24 hours now in generating convection along the ridge of
the Sacs. RAP/GFS forecast soundings show modest storm motions
toward the north at 10-15mph...not particularly slow, but also
introduces the the possibility of multiple storm passages over
the burn scars.

PoPs still generally confined to areas south of I-40 today, then
increase to 80-90% over southeastern zones this evening before
tapering off by mid-late Friday morning. Deterministic Storm Total
QPF for this phase running 1.00-1.25" across Chaves and Roosevelt
Counties. Gave some thought to adding them to the Flash Flood
Watch, which is in effect in zones to the east covered by MAF and
LUB, but not confident enough in rainfall rates tonight being
high enough to be problematic. FFG in eastern Chaves County is
rather high, as well. Still, will need to keep an eye on any
potential urban flooding issues in Roswell.

As the vort max associated with rainfall in the east exits,
attention then turns to a short-wave trough moving into western
NM later Friday and into the overnight period. Timing has trended
a bit slower with this feature, which is also relatively moisture-
starved. The mid-level short-wave does perhaps have some upper-
level jet-coupling support, so there will be modest large-scale
ascent, leading to showers with embedded thunder during this time,
focused west of the central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Saturday (Halloween) still looks like one of better overall
weather days in the forecast period, as H25 heights actually rise
a bit in association with short-wave ridging, per the GFS, between
the departing short-wave mentioned above and the next significant
Pacific system taking shape offshore of CA. A few showers may
linger into the early afternoon in the northern mountains,
however. Daytime temps look to stay within a few degrees F either
side of normal.

Deterministic guidance (GFS/ECMWF) have come into better agreement
on the initial phasing of the northern- and southern-stream
troughs. As the system comes ashore, a Pacific moisture tap will
be well-established. By 00Z Monday, a 110KT H25 jet is progged to
lie across the Four Corners area, providing lift to precipitable
water values forecast to increase to ~0.8 inches in that area (and
up to 1.1 inches in southern/SE NM). High (70-80%) PoPs re-enter
western NM after 06Z Sunday, then spread westward through the day.
Expect fairly long-duration light-moderate rain, with embedded
showers and a few thunderstorms. While there is still some
question as to the degree of instability that could be tapped to
support higher rainfall rates...even prolonged moderate rain could
cause flooding impacts (both flash and eventually riverine) due
to the very moist soils already in place, especially in NW NM. WPC
has internally introduced a higher-end Slight Risk (>25%) for
Excessive Rainfall for this area on Sunday. At least moderate
confidence now that Flood Watches will eventually be required, at
least in western NM.

Most of this initial round of precip will be triggered by the
southern-stream trough, which opens up and moves on through NM
Sunday night, before the northern trough slows down and digs down
into northern/central NM on Monday. Snow levels, which have
trended up slightly for Sunday (now pushing 11,000 ft. MSL) fall
to 8-9kft. Monday, though the deeper moisture will have departed
by then. This would still yield a few inches of snow, mainly for
the northern mountains. Elsewhere, breezy and cool (temps 5-10 deg
F below normal) with WNW winds on Monday and precip chances
tapering off...lastly in NE NM. Gusty northerly winds hang on in
the Raton to Clayton vicinity for Tuesday. Ridging aloft builds
upstream over the Intermountain West by Wed, for quieter weather
locally, though still a bit on the cool side.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Gradually lowering VFR ceilings with light winds is the trend for
all terminals besides KROW as Thursday progresses. Cannot
completely rule out a brief shower at KABQ/KAEG/KSAF later this
afternoon, but chances are less than 20%. KROW is a different
story, with LIFR cigs/vis in play through about 15Z, before
improving to VFR for much of the afternoon. Timing has shifted a
couple of hours later for showers and thunderstorms in the KROW
vicinity, more into the early evening vs. mid-afternoon. Thunder
yields to light rain and MVFR cigs around 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Fire spread concern is low through the middle of next week. A
series of Pacific storm systems keep RH above 30 percent, except
for west-central New Mexico this afternoon, where RH falls into
the 20s. Periods of rain and high-elevation snow are expected,
particularly Friday and again Sunday into Monday. Southerly
breezes increase on Sunday, before veering more west-
northwesterly and strengthening on Monday. Stronger northerly
winds persist in the northeast into Tuesday. Decent ventilation
rates today trend poorer on Friday, before improving again on
Saturday. Fair-to-poor vent rates on Sunday become good or better
Monday prior to decreasing again on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  46  67  47 /   0   0  20  80
Dulce...........................  65  37  65  39 /   0   5  10  80
Cuba............................  64  42  62  43 /   0   5  20  70
Gallup..........................  68  41  66  41 /   0   0  30  80
El Morro........................  66  39  63  40 /   0   5  40  80
Grants..........................  68  42  64  43 /   0   5  40  80
Quemado.........................  68  40  64  42 /   0  10  30  80
Magdalena.......................  67  46  64  47 /   5  40  40  60
Datil...........................  65  41  62  42 /  20  20  40  70
Reserve.........................  70  41  67  45 /   5  10  40  80
Glenwood........................  75  46  70  48 /  10  20  50  80
Chama...........................  59  37  59  38 /   0   5  20  70
Los Alamos......................  64  45  61  45 /   0  10  20  70
Pecos...........................  65  40  60  42 /   5  30  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  61  39  59  41 /   0   0  30  30
Red River.......................  54  33  51  33 /   0   0  30  30
Angel Fire......................  60  26  56  27 /   0   5  30  30
Taos............................  64  38  62  37 /   0   5  30  40
Mora............................  64  38  58  38 /   0  20  30  40
Espanola........................  69  44  66  45 /   0  10  10  70
Santa Fe........................  65  44  61  46 /   0  20  20  70
Santa Fe Airport................  67  44  64  44 /   0  20  10  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  50  66  52 /   0  20  10  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  50  68  50 /   0  20  10  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  49  70  49 /   0  20  10  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71  49  68  51 /   0  10  10  70
Belen...........................  73  48  70  50 /   0  40  10  70
Bernalillo......................  72  49  69  50 /   0  10   5  70
Bosque Farms....................  73  46  70  48 /   0  20  10  70
Corrales........................  72  48  69  50 /   0  10   5  70
Los Lunas.......................  73  46  70  50 /   0  30  10  70
Placitas........................  69  49  66  50 /   0  20  10  70
Rio Rancho......................  71  50  68  51 /   0  10   5  70
Socorro.........................  74  52  71  52 /   0  40  20  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  45  60  45 /  10  20  10  70
Tijeras.........................  67  46  63  46 /  10  20  10  70
Edgewood........................  68  44  63  43 /  20  30  20  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  40  64  42 /  30  30  20  60
Clines Corners..................  65  44  60  43 /  30  50  40  60
Mountainair.....................  67  44  62  44 /  30  40  20  70
Gran Quivira....................  67  44  63  45 /  40  50  30  60
Carrizozo.......................  69  49  65  50 /  60  50  30  60
Ruidoso.........................  62  44  59  46 /  70  70  40  60
Capulin.........................  66  43  57  39 /   0  10  50  10
Raton...........................  68  41  61  39 /   0  30  40  10
Springer........................  71  42  62  39 /   0  20  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  66  42  60  41 /  10  50  50  30
Clayton.........................  72  49  59  45 /   0  30  80  10
Roy.............................  68  46  59  42 /   0  50  70  10
Conchas.........................  74  51  65  48 /   0  60  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  71  51  64  48 /   5  70  60  30
Tucumcari.......................  74  51  63  47 /   0  60  80  10
Clovis..........................  72  53  61  50 /   5  90  80  10
Portales........................  73  52  61  49 /  10  90  80  10
Fort Sumner.....................  71  52  65  49 /  10  80  70  10
Roswell.........................  71  54  67  52 /  30  90  60  20
Picacho.........................  68  50  65  49 /  30  90  40  30
Elk.............................  66  47  62  47 /  40  90  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53-Schroeder