068
FXUS65 KABQ 110527 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot temperatures today and Thursday in the lower elevations of
  New Mexico (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-
  related illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling
  or hydration.

- Dry, breezy, and hot conditions will create near-critical fire
  weather conditions in northeast New Mexico today.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher Friday, especially over
  eastern New Mexico. Afternoon storms are likely to continue in
  eastern New Mexico each afternoon through early next week, with
  lesser coverage elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper low is moving over the MT and Canadian border, pushing a
belt of stronger westerlies aloft into the central Rockies.
Farther south into NM, the winds are not as strong, but still
elevated with drier air accompanying the westerly flow. A lee-side
surface trough is also starting to develop in southeastern CO,
helping surface winds to veer a bit more westerly this afternoon
with breezy to locally windy speeds. The strongest gusts of 25 to
35 mph will tend to stay over the northern tier of counties, and
especially over the high terrain this afternoon. This will
continue to push the low layer moisture in eastern NM farther east
which will impede our storm chances. Otherwise, warm to hot
temperatures are being observed with lots of 90`s and 100`s.

The aforementioned upper low along the Canadian border will trek
farther east on Thursday, but a trailing shortwave trough will
drop in behind it and sag into the central Rockies early in the
day before shifting into the central plains by the afternoon. An
associated backdoor front will get sent southward, entering
northeastern NM. This will shove the would-be lee-side surface
trough farther southwest into the interior of NM late Thursday.
This front will cool temperatures by a few to several degrees in
northeastern NM, however remaining areas will remain dry and hot.
Strong considerations were give to a Heat Advisory for Thursday in
the Rio Grande valley and Pecos valley, but current forecast
readings are running just shy of criteria. Still, heat impacts
will be present with a risk of heat related illnesses. As for
winds, the northern zones will observe the highest gusts of
generally 15 to 30 mph, from the northeast in northeastern zones,
and from the west elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The backdoor surface front will make considerable headway
southwestward Thursday night into Friday morning. It should reach
the Rio Grande valley during the evening and push just beyond the
Continental Divide by Friday morning. A gusty canyon wind will
develop downwind (west) of the vulnerable gaps within the central
mountain chain. The pressure gradient maximizes around 12/0600UTC
at about 5 to 6 mb between ABQ and SXU. This would suggest gusts
of 35 to 45 mph in ABQ, although the MAV guidance has been a bit
stronger for a few cycles. Synoptic models continue to initialize
some showers and storms near the Red River valley of TX where the
front will converge with the moist return flow off of the Gulf,
but this is still modeled to stay east of NM through Friday
morning. Batches of low layer stratus would be more likely to
enter eastern NM amid the moisture advection, and a few sprinkles
or drizzle cannot be ruled out early Friday morning. The bigger
impact will likely be the increase in convective potential over
eastern NM Friday afternoon due to the abrupt rises in dewpoints.
PWATs will reach 1.0 to 1.2 inches over much of eastern NM, and
while increases will also be observed in the middle to lower Rio
Grande valley, the values will be more modest between 0.6 to 0.9
inch. Surface winds would veer more southeasterly by Friday
afternoon while westerly winds aloft weaken. Sufficient
instability and directional shear could yield a few marginally
severe storms Friday afternoon and evening, most likely over the
central mountain chain, with a Flash Flood risk introduced over
the Ruidoso burn scars.

Storm chances would continue into Saturday with the highest
confidence along and east of the central mountain chain where low
layer moisture would be better rooted. However, there are
indications that mid level moisture could increase over
southwestern zones from the Gulf of CA and subtropical origins
farther south, and this could increase chances for storms, perhaps
of a drier and less rain-efficient variety. The steering flow
would be quite low on Saturday with westerlies temporarily
retreating northward and a subtropical high briefly appearing to
our south. This low steering flow regime would imply slow-moving
storms and hefty rain where moisture is better rooted and storms
are able to initialize.

On Sunday and Monday, the westerlies quickly make their presence
known again, sending shortwave troughs out of the central Rockies
into northeastern NM. Backdoor cold fronts would be associated
with these features, entering eastern NM and recharging the
moisture while also introducing directional shear for strong to
severe cells. Northwesterlies aloft would persist into Tuesday as
a high starts elongating over CA/NV/AZ, and this would keep the
door open to subsequent shortwaves as the moisture stays mostly
entrenched over the eastern half of NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds will generally prevail at the surface
tonight, with LLWS through 12Z along the Rio Grande Valley and in
the northern mountains.

A light to moderate northwest breeze will develop in central and
western NM during the afternoon, with east winds developing in
eastern NM in the wake of a backdoor cold front. This will create
strong gap winds in the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night. There is
a high likelihood that an AWW will be issued at KABQ after around
04Z Thursday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong westerly winds aloft are over CO with speeds a bit lower
into NM. Still, breezy to windy conditions are developing this
afternoon, especially over northern zones where gusts of 25 to 35
mph will occur through the evening. These gusts along with the
drier westerly component and falling RH are leading to spotty to
marginally-critical conditions over northern NM this afternoon.

A backdoor cold front will enter northeastern NM on Thursday,
leading to breezy to windy conditions while offering slight
temperature/humidity relief there. Breezy to windy conditions
will also be found in other northern NM zones, only they will be
from the west. With gusts reaching 30 to 35 mph, these northern
zones will again observe a couple hours of marginally-critical
conditions Thursday afternoon.

Into Thursday night and early Friday morning, the backdoor front
will spill into the Rio Grande valley with gap/canyon winds
gusting to 35 to 45 mph. Otherwise, the moisture accompanying the
front will be significant, leading to a notable increase in
thunderstorm chances in the days ahead. The moisture would be
rooted over most of the eastern half of NM where the prospects for
wetting rain would be highest, however modest moisture gains
between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain
would also likely lead to the development of storms, just of a
drier variety that may include a few dry thunderstorms posing a
risk of new lightning ignitions. This will essentially be the
theme going through the weekend into early next week, but a couple
of disturbances aloft and associated backdoor fronts would help
enhance storms, especially Sunday and Monday. Prevailing wind
concerns during this time frame would be mostly driven by the
backdoor fronts entering eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  90  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  89  43  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  53  88  53  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  49  91  48  92 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  88  52  88 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  53  93  53  91 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  52  89  54  90 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  59  91  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  54  89  58  87 /   0   0   0  20
Reserve.........................  48  97  53  96 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  53 101  55  99 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  45  83  43  84 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  60  89  60  86 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  54  91  53  87 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  88  50  85 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  41  79  40  77 /   0   0   0  10
Angel Fire......................  31  82  39  80 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  51  91  49  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  52  88  48  83 /   0   0   5  40
Espanola........................  54  97  56  94 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  57  91  59  88 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  54  94  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  97  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  97  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  56 100  64  98 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  98  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  60  99  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  60  98  64  97 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  57  98  61  97 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  61  99  64  97 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  99  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  62  94  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  98  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  65 102  69  99 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  91  59  89 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  59  92  59  91 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  57  93  57  90 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  95  55  91 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  56  90  55  86 /   0   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  57  94  56  91 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  57  93  58  89 /   0   0   0  30
Carrizozo.......................  65  97  66  92 /   0   0   0  40
Ruidoso.........................  54  91  61  83 /   0   0   5  70
Capulin.........................  52  78  46  82 /   0   0   0  20
Raton...........................  52  87  48  87 /   0   0   5  20
Springer........................  53  89  50  88 /   0   0   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  91  53  85 /   0   0   5  30
Clayton.........................  62  83  54  87 /   0   0   5  10
Roy.............................  58  86  54  84 /   0   0   5  20
Conchas.........................  61  94  61  92 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  61  95  59  89 /   0   0   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  94  62  94 /   0   0   5  20
Clovis..........................  67 100  65  93 /   0   0   5  20
Portales........................  68 102  65  94 /   0   0   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  64  99  64  93 /   0   0   5  20
Roswell.........................  68 105  70  96 /   0   0   0  30
Picacho.........................  64 100  63  90 /   0   0  10  50
Elk.............................  62  99  62  89 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16