433
FXUS65 KABQ 150800
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- There is a high risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area
  burn scars today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 11 AM
  until 6 PM MDT.

- Scattered storms Saturday become more widespread Sunday.
  Isolated flash flooding may occur each afternoon.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers linger across northern NM again this morning and could
persist as late as sunrise in the far northern mountains near the
Colorado border. Rainfall amounts should remain under 0.1", but the
moisture will nonetheless be beneficial for the parched area where
soil moisture as at near-record level dryness.

A drier airmass will push into western NM today, translating to
warmer temperatures and lower rain chances along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley. A relatively thin sub-tropical moisture plume will
center itself along and just east of the central mountain chain
today. Storms will therefore develop over the mountains, drifting
off to the northeast during the afternoon and evening. Once again,
90th percentile guidance is only showing small pockets of 1-2" so
flash flooding will be very isolated and localized. The main area of
concern will be the Ruidoso area burn scars due to the potential for
sub-hourly rainfall rates over 1"/hour. Surface convergence along
the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains should favor development
over the burn scars, but a slight westerly component to the steering
flow could be just enough to keep the heaviest rainfall off the most
sensitive areas.

A disturbance will move over the CO Rockies into the High Plains
Saturday, sending a moist outflow boundary/backdoor front southward
into northeast New Mexico Saturday night, which should keep some
showers and storms around across the northeast corner of the state
through the night.  The boundary should push all the way into
central NM by the morning hours, setting the stage for a more active
day Sunday due to the replenished moisture. That being said, the
GEFS ensemble mean has notably trended drier, showing PWATs near
average as opposed to above normal like it did in previous runs.
Nonetheless, the coverage of showers and storms should increase as
ridging builds overhead, which should result in erratic storm
motions at times. 90th percentile rainfall amounts from the NBM show
a large swath of 1-3" from the central mountain chain eastward into
the plains from I-40 northward, indicating that a widespread area of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall will develop. Most of this rain
should fall into the beneficial category given the drought, but an
instance or two of flash flooding can also be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Ridging will continue to develop over the desert southwest early
next week. The warmer temperatures and subsidence will decrease the
overall coverage of precipitation, but there will still be enough
moisture left underneath the ridge to produce daily rounds of
showers and storms.

Model agreement is starting to increase mid-week, with the LREF
showing a slight westward shift in the centroid of the ridge.
However, this shift should be too subtle and brief to mark a pattern
transition as model consensus brings the ridge overhead again late
week. While a slight downtick in storm coverage can be expected, NBM
guidance is running a touch dry and will most likely trend up a tad
in the coming days if the current pattern shown by ensemble means
manages to hold. Regardless of the exact location of the ridge,
above normal heights will translate to hot temperatures each
afternoon, generally running 5 to 10 degrees above average mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Showers with a few embedded storms linger across north-central
and northeast NM this evening and coverage will continue to
dwindle during the overnight hours.
  Isolated flash flooding will be a concern each afternoon,
  including over the Ruidoso area burn scars, with Saturday being
  of particular concern.

Saturday`s crop of convection will focus along and east of the
central mountain chain, with slow storm motions from the SW to NE.
Typical hazards of gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall will
accompany these storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Saturday`s crop of showers and storms will favor areas along and
east of the central mountain chain today. Moisture decreases
elsewhere, with min RH values generally 5 to 10 percent lower
compared to Friday. A backdoor front aided by storm outflows will
push into eastern NM Saturday night, eventually pushing into central
NM by Sunday morning. This will increase moisture and set the stage
for more widespread showers and storms across the region Sunday
afternoon/evening. At least wetting rainfall is likely this weekend
for the northeast third of the state, with lower chances in southern
and western areas.

Ridging will develop and amplify over New Mexico early next week,
translating to hotter temperatures and lower humidities. Scattered
showers and storms favoring the high terrain of western and northern
New Mexico will be the story each day next week, although there is
the potential for a slight uptick in coverage mid-week. With ridging
overhead, prevailing winds will continue to be light outside of
storm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  61  92  62 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  88  46  90  49 /   0   0   5  20
Cuba............................  85  57  88  57 /   0   0  20  50
Gallup..........................  84  55  87  55 /   0   5  30  20
El Morro........................  81  55  84  54 /   0   5  40  30
Grants..........................  85  57  88  56 /   0   5  40  40
Quemado.........................  82  57  85  57 /   0   5  50  40
Magdalena.......................  85  63  87  62 /  20   5  50  50
Datil...........................  80  57  83  57 /   5  10  50  50
Reserve.........................  89  54  91  56 /   5   5  40  40
Glenwood........................  94  60  97  61 /   5   5  40  30
Chama...........................  82  49  84  49 /   5   0  10  30
Los Alamos......................  85  62  86  60 /  20   5  50  50
Pecos...........................  86  58  84  56 /  20   5  80  50
Cerro/Questa....................  83  55  84  55 /  20   5  50  50
Red River.......................  72  46  73  45 /  40   5  70  50
Angel Fire......................  78  37  78  37 /  40   5  80  50
Taos............................  86  53  88  52 /  10   5  40  50
Mora............................  81  53  79  52 /  60  10  90  60
Espanola........................  91  60  93  59 /  10   0  40  50
Santa Fe........................  86  63  86  61 /  10   0  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  90  60  90  59 /   5   0  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  69  95  66 /   0   0  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  66  94  64 /   0   0  50  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  65  96  63 /   0   0  40  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  68  95  66 /   0   0  40  60
Belen...........................  94  64  96  62 /   0   0  30  50
Bernalillo......................  95  66  96  65 /   0   0  50  60
Bosque Farms....................  93  62  95  60 /   0   0  40  50
Corrales........................  95  67  96  65 /   0   0  50  60
Los Lunas.......................  93  64  95  63 /   0   0  30  50
Placitas........................  91  66  92  64 /   0   0  60  60
Rio Rancho......................  94  67  95  65 /   0   0  40  60
Socorro.........................  96  69  98  67 /   5   5  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  61  88  58 /   5   0  60  60
Tijeras.........................  88  63  89  60 /   0   0  60  60
Edgewood........................  89  57  89  55 /   5   0  70  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  55  90  54 /   5   5  60  50
Clines Corners..................  86  59  84  56 /  10  10  70  50
Mountainair.....................  88  59  88  56 /   5   5  70  50
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  87  57 /  10   5  70  50
Carrizozo.......................  90  65  90  62 /  20   5  60  10
Ruidoso.........................  82  59  82  57 /  60   5  70  10
Capulin.........................  82  54  78  54 /  70  50  90  60
Raton...........................  86  54  83  53 /  60  20  90  60
Springer........................  88  55  85  54 /  60  20  90  60
Las Vegas.......................  86  56  82  55 /  30  10  80  60
Clayton.........................  92  61  84  60 /  30  80  50  60
Roy.............................  89  59  84  58 /  20  40  70  60
Conchas.........................  97  65  92  62 /  20  40  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  93  64  89  61 /  20  30  50  60
Tucumcari.......................  98  65  93  63 /  20  40  40  50
Clovis..........................  97  67  95  66 /  10  30  10  10
Portales........................  98  68  96  66 /  20  20   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  97  68  95  65 /  10  10  20  40
Roswell.........................  99  70  98  69 /  10  10   5  10
Picacho.........................  93  63  92  63 /  70  10  10   5
Elk.............................  90  60  89  58 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon
for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16