043
FXUS65 KABQ 222321 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus
  across the far northern and western high terrain today where
  strong outflow winds and brief rain are possible.

- Moderate heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and
  western NM today with major heat risk possible across the Four
  Corners region.

- A pattern change toward wetter and cooler conditions is becoming
  more likely for northern NM Saturday through Monday, expanding
  to the entire forecast area Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A 595 to 596 dam upper high remains centered over far southwest UT
this afternoon. The clockwise flow around the upper high has allowed
drier mid level air to make even more progress into central and
western NM with higher mid level moisture mainly confined to
northwest NM and the eastern edge of this higher mid level moisture
along a line from Grants to Taos. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity will be mostly confined to this aforementioned section of
the state. A shortwave rotating around the upper high will result in
a greater coverage of shower and thunderstorm coverage across the CO
Rockies Friday afternoon. Some of this activity will spill over into
the southern San Juan and Tusas Mountains and nearby highlands,
including Chama and Dulce this evening. High temperatures this
afternoon will be similar to yesterday with low to mid 90s common
across lower elevations. A moderate risk for heat related illnesses
will exist for Santa Fe and Albuquerque and locations along and west
with localized areas in the Navajo Nation and northwest plateau,
including Farmington, under a major risk for heat related illnesses.
Any shower and thunderstorm activity across northwest and far north
central NM this evening will taper off before midnight with
lingering mid-level clouds across northern and western NM overnight.

The 500 mb upper high meanders southeast from UT/AZ border to the
heart of the Navajo Nation Saturday. Convection over Colorado this
evening and the aforementioned shortwave sliding southeast across
the central and southern Rockies along the northwest flank of the
upper high, will help push a backdoor front through northeast NM to
the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Saturday morning.
Higher PWATS of 1 to 1.3 inches behind the backdoor front along with
upslope flow will help result in a better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern mountains and nearby lower
elevations Saturday afternoon and evening. With this, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for the zones containing the HPCC burn scar
due to the potential of burn scar flash flooding from storms
resulting in rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches and hour. A better
coverage of shower and storms will also occur across the west
central mountains due to higher mid level moisture across this part
of the state. Areas along and east of I-25 and along and south of I-
40 will see very little to no shower and storm activity due to the
much drier mid level air remaining in place. Storms across the
Chuskas and San Juan Mountains will help result in some colliding
outflow boundaries, additional storm development and much needed
rainfall over the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington, Saturday
evening. Showers and storms across northern and northwest NM will
slowly taper off Saturday night lingering longest in the Four
Corners area. Finally, the convection across the northern mountains
will help push the backdoor front across northeast NM through the
gaps of the central mountain chain resulting in a brief period of
gusty east canyon winds for the ABQ Metro Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The upper high over the AZ/NM border continues to slowly weaken and
stretch southwest towards the TX Big Bend Sunday due to an
unseasonably strong upper low digging south over the Great Lakes and
broad troughing across the eastern 2/3rds of the Continental U.S.
Embedded shortwaves among the northwest flow between the upper high
and the broad troughing will keep a higher coverage of shower and
thunderstorm activity for areas along and north of I-40. Drier mid
level air south of I-40 and east of I-25 will help result in little
to no shower and thunderstorm activity. Heading into the next work
week, extended ensemble guidance depicts a further weakening and
stretching of the upper high across New Mexico and Texas due to a
reinforcing shortwave on the backside of the broad longwave
troughing over the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S along with a weak upper
low approaching the CA coast. This shortwave will send a much
stronger backdoor front through northeast NM Monday afternoon,
before pushing through all of eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain limited across
mainly northern and western NM Monday due to the drier mid level air
holding on across southern and eastern NM. However, higher moisture
behind the backdoor front along with better monsoon moisture ahead
of the baggy upper low just west off the CA coastline will help
result in widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage to most of the
forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday. PWATS will be around 1 to
1.3 inches across western and central NM and 1.3 to 1.5 inches
across eastern NM which is around the 90th percentile to max for
late August. The highest rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches will
exist across north central and northeast NM, due to these parts of
the state having more consecutive days of shower and thunderstorm
activity. The rest of the state will generally see 0.5 to 2 inches
due to getting into the action a few days later than northern NM.
Finally, the backdoor front and lowering heights will also allow
temperatures to cool down to below average across northern NM Monday
and areawide by Tuesday and Wednesday. Probabilistic temperature
guidance still depicts a 50 to 70% chance of high temperatures below
70 degrees across the far northeast plains, including Clayton, on
Tuesday! These lower temperatures will play a role in available
instability and thus heavier rainfall rates and resultant flash
flooding risk, but the repeated rounds could counteract this effect.
Widespread 70s and low to mid 80s are forecasted across northern and
central NM on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
very brief MVFR conditions in/near iso storms this evening and
especially Saturday afternoon with improved coverage of storms and
slightly lower cloud bases. Strong/erratic wind gusts are likely
near showers and storms both this evening and again on Saturday.
KROW and KTCC have a near zero probability of being impacted by
storms through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to far western
and north central NM this afternoon and evening. Higher shower and
storm coverage along and north of I-40 and along and west of I-25
Saturday through Monday due to disturbances moving across between
the weakening upper high across Arizona and New Mexico and broad
upper level troughing across the eastern 2/3rd of the Continental
U.S. Higher shower and thunderstorm coverage eventually expands to
the rest of the forecast area by next Tuesday and Wednesday due
to higher moisture behind a strong backdoor front and a
traditional monsoon flow ahead of a weak upper low off the coast
of California. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall will increase the
flash flooding risk first across northern NM before expanding
areawide beginning Tuesday. Generalized rainfall amounts of 2 to 5
inches is expected this weekend through mid next week across
north central and northeast New Mexico with generalized amounts of
0.5 to 2 inches across the rest of the state early next week.
Temperatures will also cool down to below normal readings early to
mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  94  67  88 /  30  40  70  40
Dulce...........................  52  89  52  85 /  50  80  80  70
Cuba............................  59  87  57  84 /  40  50  60  60
Gallup..........................  57  89  57  85 /  30  60  60  60
El Morro........................  58  85  57  83 /  20  60  60  70
Grants..........................  59  89  58  85 /  20  50  50  70
Quemado.........................  58  86  59  84 /  10  50  40  50
Magdalena.......................  62  87  62  85 /   5  20  10  30
Datil...........................  56  84  57  83 /   5  30  20  40
Reserve.........................  56  91  56  90 /  10  40  20  30
Glenwood........................  60  93  60  93 /   5  30  10  20
Chama...........................  51  82  49  80 /  50  90  80  90
Los Alamos......................  62  83  60  82 /  30  60  50  70
Pecos...........................  56  81  55  82 /  10  40  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  54  81  53  80 /  40  90  70  80
Red River.......................  47  70  45  70 /  40  90  70  80
Angel Fire......................  41  73  41  74 /  20  80  60  80
Taos............................  55  83  53  82 /  30  80  70  70
Mora............................  51  75  49  78 /  10  60  50  60
Espanola........................  62  91  60  89 /  30  60  50  50
Santa Fe........................  61  84  60  83 /  20  40  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  88  59  87 /  20  30  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  91  68  89 /  10  20  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  67  91 /  10  10  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  96  67  93 /  10  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
Belen...........................  64  95  64  93 /   5  10  10  10
Bernalillo......................  66  94  66  92 /  10  20  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  64  95  63  93 /   5  10  10  10
Corrales........................  66  95  66  93 /  10  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  64  95  64  93 /   5  10  10  10
Placitas........................  66  90  65  88 /  10  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  94  66  92 /  10  20  30  20
Socorro.........................  66  96  66  94 /   0   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  86  60  85 /  10  20  20  30
Tijeras.........................  62  87  62  85 /  10  20  20  30
Edgewood........................  57  88  57  87 /   5  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  88  54  88 /   5  10  10  20
Clines Corners..................  57  81  57  80 /   0  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  58  86  57  85 /   5  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  57  84 /   0   5   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  62  88  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  79  55  78 /   0   5   0  10
Capulin.........................  55  75  54  79 /  10  60  60  50
Raton...........................  55  79  53  83 /  10  70  60  60
Springer........................  55  83  55  85 /  10  60  50  40
Las Vegas.......................  53  80  53  81 /   5  50  40  40
Clayton.........................  61  85  61  87 /   5  20  30  20
Roy.............................  57  83  58  83 /   5  30  40  20
Conchas.........................  62  90  64  91 /   0  20  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  61  87  62  86 /   0  10  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  60  87  62  87 /   0  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  63  91  64  90 /   0   5   5   0
Portales........................  62  92  63  91 /   0   0   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  63  90  64  89 /   0   5  10   0
Roswell.........................  66  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  57  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11