519
FXUS65 KABQ 132324 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph
  across far eastern New Mexico today and Sunday afternoon. Gusty
  virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible around
  the southern high terrain today, Saturday, and Sunday
  afternoons.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  Saturday through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures.
  Major heat risk is possible for the southeast plains and the
  lower Rio Grande Valley.

- Temperatures will trend cooler with breezy west winds Tuesday,
  followed by a return to isolated gusty showers and dry storms
  along the central mountain chain on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Isolated and gusty virga showers, and dry or mostly dry
thunderstorms, will continue until mid evening on the far eastern
plains, and also over the southwest mountains and lower Rio Grande
Valley. The potential exists for a few cells to produce erratic
wind gusts up to 60 mph. Otherwise, our summertime ridge of high
pressure will continue to build northward over NM Saturday and
Saturday night, steering even drier air over the state in the
process. Isolated and gusty virga showers, and perhaps a few dry
thunderstorms, will favor the Sacramento Mountains eastward on
Saturday, as well as the area from Raton Pass to Springer
eastward. Erratic wind gusts up to 60 mph will again be possible
from a few of the better developed cells. In addition, high
temperatures will climb a few to around 10 degrees above average
on Saturday with increasing coverage of moderate heat risk
(https://shorturl.at/L3kl1) across central and eastern lower
elevations, and in the western valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The ridge of high pressure will continue to build northward over
NM early next week peaking around 595 DAM at 500 mb Sunday and
Sunday night. This will set the forecast area up for our first
heatwave of the season with near record high temperatures.
Readings will probably reach reach 100 F in Albuquerque Sunday and
Monday, and as much as 105 F in Socorro, Roswell, and maybe
Glenwood and Tucumcari. Enough moisture looks to linger for another
round of gusty virga showers and a few dry thunderstorms along
and just east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sacramento, west central
and southwest mountains Sunday afternoon.

An upper level trough moving through the northern and central
Rockies will weaken the upper ridge and push it southward Monday
and Tuesday causing temperatures to trend cooler, winds to become
gustier, and widespread single digit humidities to gradually
develop with fire weather concerns. The greatest fire weather
concerns look to be Tuesday when wind gusts from 25 to 40 mph will
be common with some higher gusts possible in the mountains.

In the wake of the upper trough, a moist backdoor front will sag
into the eastern plains Tuesday night, followed by a somewhat
moist return flow of low level moisture Wednesday and Thursday.
This will probably return isolated and gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms to the forecast mainly along and just east of the
central mountain chain from afternoon until sunset Wednesday and
Thursday.

The system may draw in just enough return flow of low
level moisture for some gusty virga showers and a few dry
thunderstorms mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
Sunday and Monday. Monday afternoon, and especially Tuesday, dry
westerly flow aloft aloft will strengthen as the upper trough
passes mainly north of NM resulting in gusty surface winds over
much of the forecast area. In the wake of the upper trough on
Tuesday night, a moist backdoor front may push all of the way to
the east slopes of the central mountain chain with another round
of virga showers and gusty, dry thunderstorms mainly from the
central mountain chain eastward. Our summertime high pressure
system will also begin to build over the Desert Southwest again on
Wednesday and especially Thursday causing temperatures to rebound.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Thunderstorms will continue to impact KTCC and showers may impact
KROW with strong/erratic wind gusts, both through 01Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the
TAF period with mostly light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

There will be a risk of new fire starts from dry thunderstorms
over the far eastern plains early this evening, as well as the
southwest mountains. Enough moisture looks to linger for the risk
of gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms to return along and
just east of the Sangre de Cristo and west central mountains this
weekend. A few of the better developed cells could produce
localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 60 mph. Single
digit humidities and poor overnight humidity recoveries are
forecast over central and western areas daily this weekend, then
they will spread to parts of the east as well Monday and
especially Tuesday as winds become gustier in response to an upper
level trough passing north of NM. Wind gusts Tuesday look to
result in fairly widespread coverage of critical fire weather
conditions, especially along and west of the Northeast and Central
Highlands where ERCs are forecast to vary from the 50th to the
90th percentiles. A moist backdoor front Tuesday night will cause
humidities to climb above 15 percent over eastern areas Wednesday
and Thursday. The moisture will probably also trigger daily rounds
of isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms along
and just east of the central mountain chain, and potentially
further west by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  94  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  90  44  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  53  90  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  47  93  47  96 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  89  54  92 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  50  94  50  95 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  53  91  56  93 /   5   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  60  92  62  94 /  20   0   0  10
Datil...........................  55  90  57  92 /  20   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  49  97  52  99 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  55 101  57 103 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  47  84  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  60  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  57  88  59  90 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  52  87  53  89 /   0   0   0   5
Red River.......................  45  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  38  82  39  85 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  46  90  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  50  86  52  88 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  55  96  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  60  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  57  95  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  96  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  97  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  99  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  98  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  60  99  61 100 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  99  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  98  60 100 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63  99  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  61  98  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  65  95  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  63  98  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  66 102  66 105 /  10   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  61  92  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  55  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  93  53  95 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  56  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  58  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  64  95  66  97 /   0   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  61  89  62  89 /   0  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  51  87  54  88 /   5  10   5  10
Raton...........................  50  91  52  94 /   5  10   0  10
Springer........................  50  93  52  95 /   0   5   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  52  90  54  92 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  59  93  62  95 /  10  10   5   0
Roy.............................  55  91  57  93 /   5   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  60 100  64 102 /   5   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  60  96  62  97 /   5   5   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  62  98  64 101 /  10   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  64  97  66  99 /  20  10  10   0
Portales........................  63  98  65  98 /  20  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63 100  64 102 /   5   5   5   5
Roswell.........................  68 104  69 105 /   5   5   0  10
Picacho.........................  62  97  64  98 /   0  20   0  10
Elk.............................  60  96  61  97 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11