Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
263 FXUS65 KABQ 300647 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Flash flood threat increases through the weekend across eastern and portions of central New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trends higher and grounds become increasingly saturated. - An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week with a continued flash flood threat, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Current round of convection is moving east out of our area and into the TX Panhandle and far southeast NM per the latest mosaic radar imagery. A juicy atmosphere resides across the southeast third of the state, with the latest blended total precipitable water satellite imagery showing 130-160% of normal and surface dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Torrential rainfall rates of 5-7"/hr were noted from the KFDX radar earlier and 2-3" of rain fell over portions of the east central and southeast plains near the TX border. The atmosphere isn`t changing much going into Saturday and another backdoor front is forecast to move south across the eastern plains through Saturday night, providing nocturnal forcing that will keep deep convection going into the early hours of Sunday. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch for eastern Lincoln, Chaves, De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt Counties for Saturday afternoon and night. This fits nicely with WPC`s slight risk for excessive rainfall and our climatology of heavy rain events across eastern NM toward the end of August and beginning of September. The day shift will need to consider expanding the watch north to Quay and Guadalupe Counties, where some locally heavy rains of 1-3" fell Friday afternoon/evening. The combination of the backdoor front and thunderstorm outflow will move west through the central mountain chain Saturday night and bring a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. The front will transport low level moisture west to the Continental Divide and set the stage for convection initiation Sunday afternoon. Lower forecast confidence on thunderstorm probabilities across eastern NM Sunday as the atmosphere may be too worked-over and stable from overnight convection. The Monsoon high will be firmly centered over AZ by Sunday, which should be helpful for steering a few storms off of the higher terrain and into the RGV late day. Highs on Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below average across eastern NM due to rain cooling of the lower boundary layer and moist upslope easterly flow behind the backdoor front. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The Monsoon high is forecast to drift northwest from AZ and slowly weaken through the work week as a notable troughing pattern carves out over the central and western NM. This pattern change will lead to a gradual drying of the atmosphere, with a downtick in thunderstorm coverage as PWATs dip down close to normal for early September. However, a backdoor cold frontal passage on Wednesday night and another on Friday night will recharge moisture and keep good chances for thunderstorms going, especially along and immediately east of the central mountain chain. This pattern and series of backdoor cold fronts will also keep below average fall-like temperatures going across eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across western NM through the TAF period with mostly light winds. More significant impacts are forecast across eastern NM, where MVFR and even short- lived IFR conditions are possible in areas of low stratus through Saturday morning. In addition, MVFR and short-lived IFR conditions are likely in sct/num storms across eastern NM Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm outflow will combine with a weak backdoor front to produce a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ toward the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days as an active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern persists. The Monsoon high is forecast to move west and northwest of the state through the forecast period, keeping western NM on the drier/warmer side while areas along/east of the central mountain chain benefit from higher humidity, cooler temperatures and chances for wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 45 83 46 / 10 5 20 10 Cuba............................ 81 53 80 51 / 5 0 40 20 Gallup.......................... 82 51 85 51 / 5 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 80 54 80 53 / 10 5 40 20 Grants.......................... 85 53 83 53 / 10 5 40 20 Quemado......................... 82 56 82 53 / 20 5 50 20 Magdalena....................... 83 62 80 57 / 20 20 70 50 Datil........................... 81 55 78 52 / 20 10 70 40 Reserve......................... 89 55 88 53 / 20 10 50 30 Glenwood........................ 92 60 90 58 / 20 10 50 40 Chama........................... 77 45 77 45 / 30 10 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 79 58 75 55 / 10 10 60 30 Pecos........................... 80 55 75 51 / 20 40 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 51 76 49 / 40 40 60 30 Red River....................... 68 43 65 41 / 50 50 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 72 42 69 41 / 50 50 70 30 Taos............................ 80 49 78 48 / 30 30 50 30 Mora............................ 77 48 70 46 / 40 50 80 40 Espanola........................ 86 57 84 55 / 10 20 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 81 58 78 56 / 10 30 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 57 81 54 / 10 20 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 67 85 63 / 10 10 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 66 87 61 / 5 10 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 65 89 61 / 5 10 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 65 87 62 / 5 10 30 30 Belen........................... 92 64 88 59 / 10 10 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 90 64 88 61 / 5 10 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 91 63 88 59 / 5 10 30 30 Corrales........................ 91 65 88 61 / 5 10 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 91 64 88 60 / 5 10 30 30 Placitas........................ 85 63 83 59 / 5 10 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 90 65 87 61 / 5 10 30 30 Socorro......................... 92 68 89 63 / 20 20 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 58 79 53 / 10 20 50 30 Tijeras......................... 83 60 80 56 / 10 20 50 30 Edgewood........................ 85 55 80 52 / 10 20 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 55 80 51 / 10 20 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 80 55 73 52 / 20 40 50 30 Mountainair..................... 84 57 79 52 / 20 20 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 84 58 78 53 / 20 30 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 87 63 80 59 / 40 50 70 50 Ruidoso......................... 77 58 70 53 / 70 50 80 50 Capulin......................... 72 50 71 48 / 40 50 30 20 Raton........................... 76 50 75 48 / 50 50 40 20 Springer........................ 80 53 78 50 / 40 60 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 79 53 73 49 / 40 60 70 40 Clayton......................... 79 58 79 55 / 20 30 5 10 Roy............................. 80 56 75 53 / 30 70 30 30 Conchas......................... 85 62 82 59 / 20 70 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 85 60 79 57 / 20 70 40 40 Tucumcari....................... 82 58 80 56 / 20 70 10 20 Clovis.......................... 89 64 84 61 / 30 80 30 20 Portales........................ 90 64 84 61 / 40 80 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 90 64 83 60 / 20 70 30 30 Roswell......................... 93 68 84 64 / 30 70 50 40 Picacho......................... 87 62 78 57 / 60 60 70 50 Elk............................. 84 59 75 54 / 70 60 70 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for NMZ235>240. Flood Watch this afternoon for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11