482
FXUS65 KABQ 020838
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
138 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

- A few inches of snow will fall over the northern mountains above
  9000 feet Monday morning.

- While precipitation chances diminish late Monday, rivers across
  northwestern and north-central New Mexico will remain near or
  above bankfull.

- Breezy to windy conditions will occur Monday across the
  Sacramento Mountains, as well as portions of Central Highlands
  and Eastern Plains.

- Drier conditions expected beginning Tuesday and persisting
  through the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

The storms across eastern New Mexico, which prompted the earlier
issuance of a Tornado Watch have moved into the Texas Panhandle by
the time of writing. Scattered showers associated with the
progression of the well advertised Pacific low pressure system
will continue overnight, primarily across northern, western, and
north-central portions of the state. By sunrise, precipitation
will become increasingly more focused on north-central and
northeastern New Mexico as moisture and instability rotate around
the departing low. As colder air filters in behind the front
associated with the low pressure system, precipitation will
transition to snow across the highest elevations, generally above
9000 to 10000 feet, where accumulations of 1-7 inches are
possible.

The main concern, however, over the short term continues to be
the ongoing flooding, particularly across northwestern and north-
central New Mexico, where saturated soils and elevated streamflows
from previous weeks of rain have exacerbated runoff from the
rainfall received over the last 24 hours. Multiple River Flood
Warnings remain in effect across the San Juan, Upper Rio Grande,
and Gila Basins. The Flood Watch will continue through noon today,
however flooding concerns may very well persist well beyond the
expiration of the Watch.

Winds will also remain elevated through the overnight hours,
particularly along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.
A High Wind Warning remains in effect for this area, with a Wind
Advisory also in effect for portions of the Northeastern
Highlands through sunrise. Additional Wind Advisories were issued
for portions of the Central Highlands and Eastern Plains,
including portions of the I-40 corridor beginning mid-morning and
continuing through the early evening. Another High Wind Warning
was also issued for the Central Highlands and Guadalupe County
through the evening, primarily for areas from Clines Corners
south and east towards Vaughn.

A much quieter period is in store for us by Tuesday as the upper
low will now be in the central Plains, leading to dry
northwesterly flow across the Land of Enchantment. Expect sunny
skies, lighter winds, and afternoon highs running a few degrees
below average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Moving into midweek, we are continuing to eye another upper-level
trough that traverses across the Great Basin and the central
Rockies by Wednesday. Models continue to depict the better forcing
across the border in Colorado, however, isolated to scattered
showers cannot be ruled out across northern and northeastern New
Mexico. Confidence in meaningful precipitation is still on the
low side, maybe a few hundredths or rain at most, with some light
snow accumulations over the higher mountains looking possible.
Increasing upper-level winds with this system may also make things
breezy, but significant wind impacts are not expected.

Cooler air will filter into the region behind this disturbance on
Thursday, keeping temperatures slightly below average. Models are
still hinting at a trough crossing the state by late
Friday/Friday night, but moisture looks to be lacking which would
ultimately preclude any mentionable precipitation chances.
Although, a few light sprinkles can`t be ruled out across the east
where moisture profiles are slightly more favorable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Another round of potential storm development is in store across
southern New Mexico which will impact KROW from 06-08Z . Erratic,
gusty winds with reduced visibilities are going to be the main
impacts if a storm develops near the terminal. Elsewhere, an
additional round of rain looks to occur across portions of
northwestern and central New Mexico late this evening into the
early morning hours. CIGs are mainly expected to remain above 3000
ft, though brief lowering in CIGs may occur with periods of
moderate to heavier rainfall. Southerly winds will shift
southwesterly to westerly and become breezy during the morning at
most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1147 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

The heaviest, more widespread rain has come to an end early this
morning. Light rain showers in addition to some mountain snow
will develop over northwestern to north-central zones the
remainder of the overnight hours and through the day today. Wind
concerns will exist behind the low pressure system as winds become
more northwesterly. The highest gusts will exist over the eastern
half of the state, where sustained winds of 25-40 mph and gusts
up to 50-60 mph will be common. Fortunately, humidity will be
elevated and fuels moist enough thanks to recent rains to negate
any critical fire weather concerns. Other than a few showers in
northern zones on Wednesday, quieter conditions will prevail
Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  41  55  33 /  90  90  40   0
Dulce...........................  56  34  51  25 / 100 100  80   0
Cuba............................  57  36  48  31 /  90 100  30   5
Gallup..........................  59  34  53  26 /  90 100   0   0
El Morro........................  58  34  48  26 /  90  90  20   0
Grants..........................  62  37  52  27 /  90  90  10   0
Quemado.........................  60  36  50  29 /  90 100  30   0
Magdalena.......................  65  43  55  35 /  70  80  60   0
Datil...........................  60  39  50  31 /  80  90  40   0
Reserve.........................  60  40  62  29 /  90  90  10   0
Glenwood........................  64  45  66  33 /  90  90  30   0
Chama...........................  52  31  43  25 / 100 100  90   5
Los Alamos......................  57  40  48  34 /  90 100  40   0
Pecos...........................  60  36  50  30 /  90 100  80   0
Cerro/Questa....................  58  35  46  30 / 100 100  80  10
Red River.......................  53  29  38  23 /  90 100  90  20
Angel Fire......................  58  22  43  15 /  70 100  90  20
Taos............................  59  34  49  24 /  90 100  70  20
Mora............................  62  35  49  27 /  80 100  50  10
Espanola........................  64  41  57  32 /  90 100  50   5
Santa Fe........................  60  40  49  34 /  90 100  70   5
Santa Fe Airport................  63  40  52  32 /  80 100  60   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  46  56  40 /  70 100  80   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  45  58  37 /  60 100  70   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  70  45  60  36 /  60 100  60   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  47  58  40 /  70 100  60   0
Belen...........................  72  47  62  35 /  50 100  70   0
Bernalillo......................  69  46  58  37 /  80 100  60   0
Bosque Farms....................  71  45  62  33 /  60 100  70   0
Corrales........................  68  46  59  37 /  80 100  60   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  46  62  35 /  60 100  70   0
Placitas........................  68  45  53  37 /  80 100  70   0
Rio Rancho......................  67  46  58  39 /  80 100  60   0
Socorro.........................  72  50  65  39 /  50  90  60   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  40  49  33 /  70 100  80   0
Tijeras.........................  67  42  51  35 /  60 100  80   0
Edgewood........................  66  40  52  31 /  50 100  80   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  39  55  29 /  50 100  70   0
Clines Corners..................  65  41  52  32 /  30 100  70   0
Mountainair.....................  65  41  54  32 /  40 100  90   0
Gran Quivira....................  66  42  54  32 /  40 100  80   0
Carrizozo.......................  72  49  60  39 /  30 100  50   0
Ruidoso.........................  67  45  54  35 /  20 100  40   0
Capulin.........................  60  42  53  31 /  20  90  70  40
Raton...........................  68  41  57  31 /  30  90  50  30
Springer........................  71  44  58  30 /  20  90  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  65  42  54  30 /  70 100  20   0
Clayton.........................  65  51  63  41 /  10  90  40  30
Roy.............................  62  46  59  35 /  30 100  20   5
Conchas.........................  70  54  65  41 /  20  90   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  69  51  60  41 /  20  90  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  72  55  69  42 /  10 100   0   5
Clovis..........................  71  56  67  41 /   5  80  10   0
Portales........................  72  57  71  44 /   5  80   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  54  66  43 /  10  90  20   0
Roswell.........................  74  57  75  44 /  10  50   0   0
Picacho.........................  74  53  66  42 /   0  50   0   0
Elk.............................  71  50  66  39 /  10  70   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 AM MST Monday for NMZ201>211.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for NMZ221-222-224-
232-234>237-239.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for NMZ227-228.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST Monday for NMZ229-240.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for NMZ223-233.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST Monday for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...99