235
FXUS65 KABQ 291121 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations
  of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding
  will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Quick update to add slight chance PoPs and thunder to east central
and southeast NM ahead of the outflow boundary. A few pop-up
storms have developed. These storms should be short-lived and
generally decrease toward sunrise. Updates out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A small MCV developed northwest of ABQ late last evening and is
currently tracking northward, but may make an eastward jog later
this morning as it rounds the upper high. This feature should
keep showers and thunderstorms going through much of the overnight
period, though most CAMs suggest precipitation will end just prior
to sunrise.

The 596 dam H5 high remains centered on NM today, but overall,
models are not as bullish with thunderstorm coverage this
afternoon. Drier mid level air is getting wrapped into the high
from the south and east. Additionally, subsidence may exist in the
wake of the MCV. The cause for the reduction in storm coverage
could be either reason or some combination of the two. However,
PWATs remain around 1 inch and storm motions will remain slow, so
heavy rain remains a threat with any storms that develop. Though a
flash flood or two remains possible today, confidence is not high
regarding where they may occur, so will not be issuing a Flood
Watch for today. Additionally, a weak boundary located near the
NM/CO border this afternoon may be a focus for a few strong or
severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

High temperatures today will also trend downward and should remain
shy of Heat Advisory criteria, though a few locations will be
close, including ABQ. High temperatures up to 10 degrees above
normal are still expected.

The upper high looks to drift east tonight before moseying back
west on Thursday and strengthening to 597-598dam. Storm coverage
should be similar to today. Storms will again favor the high
terrain and portions of northeast NM where another boundary will
exist. Any storm could produce heavy rainfall as there will be
little change in PWAT or storm motion from today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The vort max from yesterday`s MCV over AZ will continue to track
around the upper high. It looks like it may merge with a weak
shortwave tonight over UT and continue to round the high on
Thursday, sparking thunderstorm activity across eastern CO on
Thursday afternoon. Regardless of the cause of the thunderstorms,
models have been consistent that an outflow boundary will push
southward across northeast and east central NM Thursday night into
Friday. By Friday afternoon, easterly upslope flow will allow
storms to develop along the Central Mountain Chain. Meanwhile, the
upper high will have shifted westward over northern AZ. This will
allow storms to shift southeastward across the plains Friday
afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the
primary threats. Additional storms should also develop across the
Southwest Mountains on Friday, but drier air moving into northwest
NM around the high should limit thunderstorm coverage there. The
high remains over AZ on Saturday. Storms should still develop over
the Central Mtn Chain and Southwest Mountains on Saturday, but
storm motions will be more due north to south, which will keep
storms near or over the mountains through the afternoon and
evening. Though the Ruidoso area could see rain on Friday,
Saturday looks to be the next day of significant concern for burn
scar flash flooding in the Ruidoso area.

A downtrend in thunderstorm coverage remains forecast for Sunday
as much drier air will filter in from the north around the
weakening upper high. PWATs will finally dip below one inch. Storm
coverage may trend up slightly for Monday, but PWATs will still be
trending downward for most areas, perhaps as low as 0.75" at ABQ in
the aftn. A couple of strong outflow boundaries moving into NM
from both CO and AZ on Tuesday should help increase moisture and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms persist acoss east central and
southeast areas this morning along and ahead of an outflow
boundary. These should wane around or shortly after sunrise.
However, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will again favor the
high terrain and far northeast NM, though storm coverage should
not be as great as Tuesday. Nonetheless, storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall, reduced visibility and gusty and erratic winds. A
few storms across far northeast NM may be strong or severe with
large hail and gusts greater than 50kt. Though the severe threat
will end in the evening, storms will linger into the overnight
hours for most areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week, though hot temperatures will persist. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Saturday,
first developing over the high terrain then moving to nearby
lower elevations. Except, on Saturday, storms will struggle to
move off the Central Mountain Chain due to southerly storm motion.
Drier air will push into NM on Sunday and Monday, reducing storm
coverage. Through Saturday, locally heavy rainfall, small hail,
and gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any thunderstorm.
Lightning may start new fires in pockets of dry fuel.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  67  97  65 /  10  30   0   0
Dulce...........................  93  57  93  56 /  40  50  20  10
Cuba............................  91  62  92  62 /  30  40  10   5
Gallup..........................  92  61  93  61 /  30  30  10  10
El Morro........................  87  59  88  59 /  40  30  30  20
Grants..........................  92  61  92  62 /  50  40  40  20
Quemado.........................  88  61  89  62 /  60  30  30  20
Magdalena.......................  91  66  91  67 /  30  20  50  20
Datil...........................  87  60  88  61 /  40  30  50  20
Reserve.........................  93  62  94  63 /  30  20  40  20
Glenwood........................  97  68  99  68 /  20  30  30  20
Chama...........................  85  55  86  55 /  60  60  20  20
Los Alamos......................  89  65  89  65 /  40  40  50  20
Pecos...........................  91  61  93  62 /  40  40  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  86  57  87  57 /  60  60  30  30
Red River.......................  79  49  80  47 /  60  60  30  30
Angel Fire......................  82  47  83  42 /  70  60  30  20
Taos............................  89  59  90  59 /  40  60  20  10
Mora............................  86  57  88  58 /  70  60  50  30
Espanola........................  96  64  96  63 /  30  40  20  10
Santa Fe........................  91  65  92  64 /  30  30  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  94  64  95  63 /  20  30  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  70  97  71 /  10  30  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  72  98  73 /  10  30  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  66 100  65 /  10  30  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  71  99  72 /  10  30  10  10
Belen........................... 100  71 101  73 /   5  20   5  10
Bernalillo......................  98  69  99  69 /  10  30  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  99  68 100  69 /  10  20  10  10
Corrales........................  99  69 100  70 /  10  30  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  99  69 100  71 /   5  20  10  10
Placitas........................  95  68  96  69 /  20  30  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  98  70  99  71 /  10  30  10  10
Socorro......................... 102  73 102  74 /   5  20  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  63  92  65 /  20  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  92  65  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
Edgewood........................  92  62  94  64 /  20  30  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  61  96  62 /  20  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  91  62  92  63 /  20  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  94  63  95  65 /  20  30  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  93  65  94  65 /  20  30  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  97  69  98  70 /  20  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  89  61  90  62 /  20  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  87  58  89  59 /  70  50  50  40
Raton...........................  92  58  94  59 /  70  60  50  30
Springer........................  94  59  96  60 /  70  60  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  90  59  92  60 /  40  50  40  30
Clayton.........................  96  68  99  68 /  30  50  30  50
Roy.............................  93  64  96  65 /  40  50  30  30
Conchas......................... 101  71 103  70 /  10  40  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  98  69 101  68 /   5  20  10  20
Tucumcari....................... 102  73 104  72 /  10  30   5  20
Clovis.......................... 100  71 101  71 /   0  10   0   5
Portales........................ 101  72 102  72 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner..................... 100  73 102  72 /   0  10   5   5
Roswell......................... 103  74 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  96  69  97  69 /   5   5  10   5
Elk.............................  92  65  93  66 /  10   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34