487
FXUS65 KABQ 310745
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
145 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain
  chain through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty
  and erratic winds can be expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across
  western and central New Mexico today. Flash flooding could
  result where storms train over the same area repeatedly.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-
  related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through
the overnight period across western NM. A vort max is still
expected to slide northward across eastern AZ overnight and move
into NW NM late this morning. Models suggest by the time the vort
max moves into NM, the precipitation associated with it will have
largely become stratiform. Thus, expecting mostly light to
moderate rain starting around 14-15Z and continuing through the
early afternoon hours as the precipitation slides toward the NNE.
Any lightning strikes will likely be focused on the eastern
periphery of the rain shield where most instability will exist.
Even without the lightning, moist mid-level adiabatic lapse rates
will allow for efficient rain processes, so some areas should
receive beneficial rainfall across the northwest. After the
precipitation moves out of the area, northwest NM should stay
rather stable with little additional convection through the rest
of the afternoon and evening. Thus, by mid afternoon, focus will
shift to additional showers and storms developing over the
Southwest Mountains to near Mount Taylor as well as along the
Central Mountain Chain thanks to daytime heating and plenty of
moisture in place. These storms will pose more of a threat for
heavy rainfall rates as well as gusty and erratic winds. Storm
motion this afternoon will continue to be toward the north-
northeast at speeds around 15 to 25 mph. Outflows from storms on
either side of the Rio Grande Valley should collide within the
valley and spark new storms around 5-7pm MDT. Once again, dust may
get kicked up with the strong outflows and visibility may be
locally reduced. Showers and isolated thunderstorms from the
ContDvd to the Central Mtn Chain should persist well into the
evening and overnight hours before diminishing.

Drier air near and above H5 is expected to move into at least NW
NM on Tuesday, significantly reducing precipitation chances there.
The monsoon plume will become a little less organized and
narrower, but generally focused across central NM. PWATs come down
slightly, but still more than sufficient for scattered storms in
this area. Storms look to be focused across the Southwest
Mountains as well as along and just east of the Central Mountain
Chain, though a few storms should still move into the middle and
lower Rio Grande Valley toward the evening. Much the activity
should diminish by the midnight hour.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The mid and upper level dry air will continue to push into NM on
Wednesday, disrupting the monsoon plume further, though PWATs do
not decrease significantly. NBM PoPs appear to be much too low and
isolated, if not scattered, storms should still develop over the
high terrain. The RRFS is the most aggressive model, showing
storm coverage very similar to Tuesday. Though PoPs were increased
from the NBM, PoPs may increase further as we get closer to
Wednesday.

Additionally, by Wednesday we should see a tropical system just
south of the Baja. Though the ridge axis will still extend
westward into NM, moisture associated with the tropical system
should begin to shift northward on Thursday toward AZ and NM and
spread across at least western NM by Friday. This should increase
precipitation chances once again, especially by Friday. Of
course, as is usually the case with moisture from tropical
origins, it tends to bring more cloud cover, more stability, and
hence more stratiform rain rather than heavy thunderstorm rains.
Time will tell, but models are already hinting at this.
Unfortunately, the moisture will have a difficult time making much
eastward progress in NM as the pesky upper high will have begun
to move back toward NM. By Friday, the high center should be
around eastern KS or MO, and by Saturday over central or western
KS. Unfortunately, both the EC and GFS show the high strengthening
as it continues to inch westward on Sunday. Therefore,
precipitation chances Friday through the weekend will favor areas
along and west of the Central Mtn Chain, while eastern NM will be
hot and mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across
western NM through the overnight hours. A disturbance tracking
northward across AZ will move into northwest NM during the late
morning hours on Monday. This feature will bring a batch of light
to moderate rain, and perhaps a few lightning strikes, to
northwest NM between 15Z and 21Z. This area will then be rather
stable through the remainder of the afternoon with little
additional convection. About the time that precipitation ends,
additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
Southwest Mountains as well as portions of the Central Mountain
Chain. Storms should then expand into the Rio Grande Valley into
the evening. These storms will be capable of heavy rainfall as
well as erratic wind gust to 40kt. Strong outflow winds may kick
up dust, especially within the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will then persist into the
overnight hours in these areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor areas
along and west of the Central Mountain Chain today. Storm motion
will be toward the north and northeast around 15 to 25 mph. Storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall and gusty and erratic winds,
especially in areas along and between the ContDvD and the Central
Mtn Chain late this afternoon and evening. Additional rainfall is
expected across northwest NM this morning through early afternoon,
but should be more stratiform in nature. Precipitation chances
dwindle a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday, with storms focused
from the West Central Basin and Range to the Central Mtn Chain.
Moisture may peel off a tropical system and head into western NM
Thursday and moreso Friday once again increasing precipitation
chances. Meanwhile, the upper high will be moving back toward NM
with temperatures staying hot, or getting hotter, across eastern
NM through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  56  83  58 /  70  40   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  49  83  48 /  70  60  10   0
Cuba............................  82  54  82  56 /  50  40   5   0
Gallup..........................  76  49  82  50 /  80  30   5   0
El Morro........................  74  50  79  51 /  80  40   5   5
Grants..........................  79  54  82  54 /  80  40  10  10
Quemado.........................  77  53  79  54 /  80  40  20   5
Magdalena.......................  85  59  83  61 /  30  30  50  20
Datil...........................  79  53  78  54 /  70  40  30  10
Reserve.........................  84  53  85  54 /  50  30  20  10
Glenwood........................  90  58  91  58 /  40  30  10  20
Chama...........................  76  49  77  49 /  60  60  10   0
Los Alamos......................  83  59  82  60 /  30  50  20  10
Pecos...........................  87  56  85  56 /  40  50  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  81  53  81  53 /  40  60  20   5
Red River.......................  75  45  74  44 /  50  60  20  10
Angel Fire......................  79  40  78  38 /  40  60  30  10
Taos............................  84  54  84  52 /  40  60  10   5
Mora............................  82  53  81  51 /  30  40  40  20
Espanola........................  91  57  89  58 /  30  40  20   5
Santa Fe........................  87  59  85  59 /  30  40  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  89  57  88  58 /  30  40  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  65  90  66 /  30  30   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  66  91  67 /  20  30   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  60  92  62 /  20  30   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  65  92  66 /  20  30   0  10
Belen...........................  95  63  93  64 /  10  20  10  10
Bernalillo......................  93  64  91  65 /  20  30   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  92  61 /  20  20   5  10
Corrales........................  93  64  92  65 /  20  30   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  94  62  92  63 /  10  20   5  10
Placitas........................  90  63  89  64 /  30  40   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  92  65  90  66 /  20  30   5  10
Socorro.........................  96  67  93  68 /  10  30  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  58  85  59 /  30  40   5  10
Tijeras.........................  87  60  86  61 /  30  40   5  10
Edgewood........................  88  57  86  58 /  30  40  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  54  88  54 /  30  40  10  20
Clines Corners..................  87  57  86  58 /  20  30  20  20
Mountainair.....................  89  57  86  58 /  30  40  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  89  58  86  59 /  20  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  92  64  90  64 /  30  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  86  54  83  55 /  30  30  60  20
Capulin.........................  85  55  85  54 /  30  30  40  20
Raton...........................  89  55  87  52 /  30  40  30  10
Springer........................  91  56  90  53 /  20  30  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  87  56  86  55 /  20  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  94  65  93  65 /   5  10  20  20
Roy.............................  91  61  89  59 /   5  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  98  68  97  66 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  94  66  93  65 /   5   5  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  99  69  97  69 /   0   0  10  20
Clovis..........................  96  67  95  68 /   0   0  10  10
Portales........................  97  68  97  68 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  98  68  97  68 /   0   0  20  20
Roswell.........................  99  71  99  71 /   5   0  20  20
Picacho.........................  94  63  92  63 /  10  10  40  20
Elk.............................  90  60  88  60 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34