763
FXUS65 KABQ 161124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures. Major heat
  risk may impact the middle to lower Rio Grande valley and
  southeast plains.

- Gusty west winds returns Tuesday. Dry and gusty conditions may
  allow any recent wildfires that were started by lightning to
  grow rapidly, especially over western New Mexico where fuels are
  very dry. Smoke may also reduce air quality.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorm outflow gusts have pushed low-level moisture back west
thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande
Valley and into the west-central highlands toward Grants tonight.
Observations depict the very low dewpoints at Farmington and Gallup
in the single-digits to low teens with 30s to 40 in the Rio Grande
Valley and upward to near 60F along the TX border. This low-level
moisture will be scoured out this afternoon as dry westerlies fill
in thru western and central NM, advancing to the OK/TX border in
northeastern NM as the H5 ridge flattens over Chihuahua, Mexico.
Southerly return flow holding on over southeastern and east-central
NM will keep relatively higher moisture lingering there. A
sharpening dryline along the western edge of that airmass will have
a chance to spark a few isolated mostly dry showers or perhaps a dry
thunderstorm. Have maintained the 10% mentionable PoPs in this area
for this. Otherwise, dry westerlies will shunt most hopeful updrafts
this afternoon and keep things dry. A few dry gusts of wind
emanating from any over performing dry virga shower will be the main
sensible weather impact from this.

Heat will remain the main story this afternoon with highs climbing
8F to 12F above normal into the low 100s for many lower elevation
areas. Will maintain the Heat Advisories from Albuquerque to Socorro
and for Roswell today as result. Mid-elevation areas will see highs
in the 90s, with 80s in the mountains. Tuesday sees pressure heights
fall further as the upper ridge is entirely flattened southward into
Old Mexico, but have ticked high temperatures higher across eastern
NM due to downsloping westerlies along and east of the central
mountain chain. MOS guidance is reasonably showing this terrain
induced effect with highs in the mid to upper 100s across eastern
NM, while the NBM is barely reaching 100F in favored areas. Have
bumped MaxT`s Tuesday above the NBM as a result and will issue an
Extreme Heat Watch for Roswell which has a forecast high of 110F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

As Tuesday night rolls around, the shortwave trough will be on its
way east into the Great Plains and it will be pushing a backdoor
cold front through northeast New Mexico. Some showers and
thunderstorms may form along the frontal boundary in far eastern
Union county during the evening hours (15% chance). The front will
continue to push through the rest of the eastern plains during the
overnight hours, replenishing some surface moisture throughout the
region. Recent guidance has trended towards a bit of a stronger
push with this front, and it now looks to make it to the central
mountain chain. Some breezy 15 to 20 kt winds may accompany the
front as it moves across eastern New Mexico, but there is currently
low confidence on whether the front will be able to make it through
the gaps of the central mountains. For now, no gap wind is expected
for the ABQ and Santa Fe metro during the morning hours on
Wednesday, with winds looking to remain light throughout the day.

Temperatures drop closer to seasonal averages for eastern New Mexico
in the wake of the front on Wednesday. Western and central areas will
see temperatures similar to those on Tuesday, perhaps a tad cooler
in some locations, but most areas will still be 3 to 8 degrees above
average for this time of year. However, temperatures will once again
begin to creep back up to near triple digits as an upper level ridge
begins to strengthen over the south-central CONUS on Thursday. With
some higher dewpoints and increased southerly flow in the latter
half of the week, greater moisture may be able to squeeze out some
isolated virga showers and high-based storms along the central
mountain chain on Thursday and along the southern high terrain on
Friday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, POPs remain low
(<14%) for this period, but it would not be surprising to see slight
increases in subsequent forecasts. Heading into the weekend,
increased tropical moisture looks to make its way up from the
Pacific, increasing chances of rain. A deepening Pacific trough over
the western CONUS will further increase southerly flow into New
Mexico, with model PWATS showing over an inch in southern New Mexico
on Sunday afternoon. As a result, there is a growing concern for
burn scar flash flooding heading into next week, particularly for
the Ruidoso burn scar area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light and variable winds have taken hold this morning. Prevailing
southwesterlies develop thru much of western and central NM
this afternoon, with southerlies thru the eastern plains of NM. A
few stray showers and thunderstorms will try to develop along a
dryline along the highlands, and have maintained a PROB30 at KROW
for outflow winds from this isolated activity reaching that
terminal late this afternoon. Winds calm thru western and central
NM again this evening, lingering 10 to 13 knots prevailing thru
eastern NM well into tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Very dry conditions with increasing westerlies is the rule thru
western NM today and Tuesday where a Fire Weather Watch is present
for Tuesday. Areas along a west of the Rio Grande Valley will see 6
to 18 hours of single-digit humidity each afternoon thru at least
mid-week with poor recoveries overnight. Higher moisture will remain
across eastern NM with good to excellent recoveries. This pattern
looks to maintain the dichotomy of fuel receptiveness across the
state where very dry fuels are yielding high ERCs thru western NM,
and lower ERCs where greenup has occurred thru eastern NM.

The ridge of high pressure, responsible for high heat this past week
flattens some today, but highs will remain dangerously hot in the
90s and 100s. Downsloping westerlies keep the heat threat going
Tuesday. Highs come down a few degrees Wednesday and thru the rest
of the week, but will remain hot for those outdoors. This, despite a
backdoor front bringing slightly lower temperatures Wednesday into
eastern NM. This front will bring an increase in humidity to the Rio
Grande Valley helping spread the better recoveries further west for
the latter half of the week. Thereafter, the weather pattern
features a large area of high pressure over the Mississippi Valley
and a trough pushing into the western CONUS with NM stuck between
and a favored tap of sub-tropical moisture pushing into portions of
the state increased precipitation chances Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  57  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  91  46  87  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  92  55  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  96  50  92  43 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  93  53  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  96  52  92  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  95  55  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  97  62  94  60 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  94  56  92  55 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  97  51  95  48 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................ 104  57  97  54 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  85  47  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  90  62  87  58 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  90  58  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  88  55  84  50 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  78  42  74  42 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  83  33  79  34 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  93  48  88  46 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  88  52  85  48 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  97  57  94  53 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  92  61  88  58 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  96  58  92  55 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  68  96  64 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights............. 101  65  97  62 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  65  99  61 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101  66  97  63 /   5   0   0   0
Belen........................... 103  63 100  58 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo...................... 101  64  99  60 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms.................... 102  62  99  58 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................ 102  65  99  61 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas....................... 102  64  99  59 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  98  66  94  62 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho...................... 101  65  98  61 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 104  69 103  66 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  93  60  89  56 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  95  62  92  58 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  94  58  92  53 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  55  93  50 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  90  58  89  53 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  94  60  92  54 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  94  61  93  55 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  98  67  97  63 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  90  65  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  88  55  87  49 /  10   0  10   5
Raton...........................  93  52  92  49 /  10   0   5   0
Springer........................  95  52  94  51 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  91  56  90  50 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  96  61  93  57 /  10   5   5  20
Roy.............................  92  58  95  54 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas......................... 100  61 103  61 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  99  62 100  59 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari....................... 102  67 104  61 /   5   0   0   5
Clovis.......................... 100  69 102  63 /  10   5   0   5
Portales........................ 100  69 104  62 /  10   5   0   5
Fort Sumner..................... 100  65 104  61 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 105  70 110  70 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  98  67 100  63 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  95  64  96  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ105-109.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ209-219-220-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24