902
FXUS65 KABQ 311126 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of
  New Mexico today, retreating to northwest and far west central
  New Mexico this weekend before expanding back east early next
  week.

- Higher coverage of thunderstorms will develop across central and
  eastern New Mexico today and Saturday. Storms on today and
  Saturday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
  large hail along with locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The 00Z upper air analysis showed the Monsoon high over central NM
at a 500mb height of 598dam. The Monsoon high is forecast to move
west to over AZ and continue to strengthen to 600dam at 500mb.
More heat is forecast today and a Heat Advisory is in effect for
the Northwest Plateau, middle and lower RGV and the Chaves County
Plains. A backdoor front is still forecast to progress to the
central mountain chain today, replenishing low level moisture and
sparking a more robust round of convection relative to the past
couple of days. As the upper high shifts west into AZ, northwest
flow aloft will increase across northeast and east central NM and
combine with low level easterly flow to boost 0-6km bulk shear to
30-35kts, which is sufficient for a severe storms. The SPC has
much of east central and northeast NM included in a marginal risk
for severe storms on the day 1 convective outlook. Convective cold
pooling across eastern NM will help nudge the front west through
the central mountain chain this evening, resulting in a gusty east
canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys
that will persist overnight. Low level moisture behind the
backdoor front will be transported west overnight into Saturday
morning to near the AZ border and set the stage for a more active
day with even greater severe potential as flow aloft turns
northerly and 0-6km bulk shear increases by another 5-10kts
relative to Friday. The SPC has a sizable marginal risk area for
severe storms on Saturday that encompasses much of eastern and
central NM and includes the RGV. There is a moderate risk for burn
scar flash flooding in Ruidoso both today and Saturday, but
Saturday`s risk is a touch higher given potential for wet grounds
from today`s rainfall and a good chance for multiple rounds on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The Monsoon high will weaken some Sun/Mon and a downtick in
daytime heating initiated storms is forecast as drier air aloft
rotates around the high circulation over NM and PWATs decline.
Heat risk will trend back up Monday for a number of lower
elevation locales and advisories may be required, with potential
extension into Tuesday. The Monsoon high will remain weakened and
wobble about the region from mid through late week, with renewed
rounds of daily storms favoring northern and western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct storms
across western NM and sct/num storms across much of eastern NM
this afternoon and evening. A backdoor front will sweep southwest
into central NM today, creating a gusty east canyon/gap wind into
the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace this evening. An Airport Weather
Warning at KABQ for gusts to 35kts or greater may be required
Friday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the
next seven days. Strong high pressure aloft will bring continued
hot temperatures to the lower elevations today, then again early
next week. A backdoor front will replenish moisture across eastern
NM today, leading to an uptick in coverage of wetting storms
along/east of the central mountain chain. The backdoor front will
surge west to near the AZ border tonight into Saturday night,
setting the stage for wetting storms across much of the area
Saturday afternoon and evening. Humidity recovery will improve and
be good to excellent behind the backdoor front. Chances for
wetting storms will decrease Sun/Mon, then ramp back up going into
the middle of the week as high pressure aloft weakens some.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  68  98  68 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  95  56  93  54 /  10  20  30  20
Cuba............................  94  60  90  58 /  10  10  30  20
Gallup..........................  95  60  95  60 /   5   5  10  10
El Morro........................  90  60  89  58 /  10  10  30  20
Grants..........................  94  62  93  60 /  10  20  20  20
Quemado.........................  91  62  92  61 /  20  10  20  30
Magdalena.......................  92  65  89  63 /  30  40  30  30
Datil...........................  89  61  87  59 /  30  30  50  20
Reserve.........................  96  62  95  61 /  40  20  50  30
Glenwood........................ 100  66  98  64 /  40  20  50  30
Chama...........................  87  54  83  52 /  30  30  50  20
Los Alamos......................  89  63  86  61 /  30  30  70  20
Pecos...........................  90  58  84  55 /  50  30  90  20
Cerro/Questa....................  86  55  84  54 /  50  60  40  20
Red River.......................  77  46  75  45 /  60  70  60  20
Angel Fire......................  80  41  78  36 /  70  80  90  20
Taos............................  89  56  86  54 /  40  50  50  20
Mora............................  83  53  80  52 /  70  70  90  20
Espanola........................  97  62  93  59 /  20  30  40  20
Santa Fe........................  92  64  88  60 /  30  30  70  20
Santa Fe Airport................  96  62  92  59 /  20  20  60  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  67  94  65 /  20  20  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  70  95  67 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  64  97  61 /  10  20  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  69  96  66 /  10  20  30  20
Belen........................... 103  68  97  66 /  10  20  20  20
Bernalillo...................... 101  67  96  64 /  20  20  40  20
Bosque Farms.................... 100  65  96  62 /  10  20  20  20
Corrales........................ 101  68  96  65 /  20  20  40  20
Los Lunas....................... 101  67  96  64 /  10  20  20  20
Placitas........................  97  66  92  64 /  20  20  40  20
Rio Rancho...................... 100  69  95  66 /  20  20  30  20
Socorro......................... 105  72  98  68 /  10  30  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  61  88  59 /  20  20  60  20
Tijeras.........................  94  63  89  60 /  30  20  60  20
Edgewood........................  92  60  88  57 /  30  20  70  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  58  89  53 /  40  20  60  20
Clines Corners..................  90  59  84  56 /  50  20  70  40
Mountainair.....................  94  59  89  57 /  40  30  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  93  60  87  58 /  40  30  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  98  66  91  63 /  40  30  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  90  57  82  55 /  60  40  80  60
Capulin.........................  84  54  82  54 /  70  70  60  10
Raton...........................  89  54  87  53 /  80  80  60  10
Springer........................  91  56  87  54 /  90  80  50  10
Las Vegas.......................  87  56  82  54 /  80  60  70  20
Clayton.........................  92  63  90  61 /  30  50  30  10
Roy.............................  90  59  85  58 /  90  70  60  20
Conchas.........................  99  65  92  63 /  80  60  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  64  89  62 /  60  50  40  20
Tucumcari....................... 100  66  94  63 /  50  70  20  20
Clovis..........................  99  67  91  63 /  30  70  30  20
Portales........................ 101  67  92  64 /  30  70  30  20
Fort Sumner..................... 100  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  30
Roswell......................... 105  72  96  68 /  10  50  30  40
Picacho.........................  98  66  89  63 /  40  40  50  50
Elk.............................  95  62  86  59 /  50  40  80  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-219-220-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11