Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
748 FXUS65 KABQ 010655 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1255 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will are expected each of the next several afternoons and evenings around central and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding may occur with any storm. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding this afternoon and evening, trending slightly lower mid-week. - Storm chances may begin to trend up again late week into the weekend, increasing the risk of flash flooding and strong to severe storms (Moderate confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The Monsoon high is moving slowly northwest into AZ and is forecast to continue over UT on Tuesday, with 500mb heights increasing slightly to 594dam. This trend will allow low level moisture to transport northwest across the state under the upper high circulation and fuel rounds of scattered storms both this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday, with western and central NM getting more into the mix vs the past few days. Chances will favor the mountains and storms may not survive long after moving off to the south or southwest given a lack of low level inflow to sustain updrafts. That said, this flow regime is favorable for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros to see some rain. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding today, mainly on the HPCC scar where storms will be moving south (down-scar) and may train. However, forecast confidence in too low to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. A few storms down near Glenwood will be more capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding given above normal PWATs and slower storm motion there. As the upper high moves away from the area, daytime temperatures will generally be near to below normal through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1206 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The upper high is forecast to weaken and move southeast back over NM Wed/Thu, eventually breaking-down by Friday with 500mb heights decreasing to 588dam. Given no additional moisture input Wed/Thu, rounds of daytime heating triggered convection will be at a minimum for the forecast period. However, PWATs will trend back up Friday due to a backdoor front and moisture moving northeast into the Desert SW from a tropical cyclone near the Baja Peninsula. The latest ECMWF has come into better agreement with the GFS on the trajectory of this potential tropical storm and associated moisture. For now, we have increasing forecast confidence in a wet period from Friday through the weekend, with potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Daytime temperatures will be below normal from Friday through the weekend thanks to the added moisture resulting in cloud cover and rain-cooling. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 An areas of showers and storms near KROW will diminish by around 08Z, but MVFR conditions in rain are possible until then. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across the area through the TAF period. Low probabilities of MVFR conditions in low stratus exist across eastern NM early Monday morning, with potential impacts at KLVS, KTCC and KROW. However, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs and the development of low stratus is dependent on existing cloud cover diminishing. A round of scattered storms is forecast Monday afternoon/evening and will favor central NM. Short- lived MVFR conditions are possible with storms on Monday, with potential impacts to the KSAF/KABQ/KAEG airspace between 21-01Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Chances for wetting storms will favor central NM through Wednesday, but trend down each day as the Monsoon high expands back over the area from over UT/AZ and brings drier air with it. The Monsoon high is forecast to break-down toward the end of the week, allowing moisture to stream in from the south and setting up a wet weekend with increased humidity and good chances for wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 62 88 62 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 45 85 46 / 20 10 30 10 Cuba............................ 80 52 82 53 / 30 10 30 20 Gallup.......................... 84 53 84 53 / 10 5 20 10 El Morro........................ 79 53 80 53 / 30 10 30 20 Grants.......................... 83 53 84 53 / 30 10 20 10 Quemado......................... 81 53 81 53 / 30 20 30 20 Magdalena....................... 80 57 81 58 / 40 20 20 5 Datil........................... 78 52 78 52 / 50 20 20 10 Reserve......................... 86 53 86 52 / 50 30 30 10 Glenwood........................ 89 57 88 56 / 60 30 30 10 Chama........................... 76 45 78 46 / 40 20 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 77 56 78 56 / 50 10 50 20 Pecos........................... 76 51 78 52 / 60 10 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 49 78 49 / 40 5 50 20 Red River....................... 68 41 69 41 / 50 5 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 71 34 72 36 / 50 10 50 20 Taos............................ 81 47 81 48 / 40 5 30 20 Mora............................ 73 46 75 47 / 60 10 60 20 Espanola........................ 85 54 86 55 / 40 5 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 79 56 80 57 / 50 10 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 54 83 55 / 40 10 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 64 86 65 / 30 10 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 62 88 62 / 30 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 61 90 62 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 62 88 63 / 30 10 5 10 Belen........................... 88 59 90 59 / 30 10 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 88 60 90 62 / 30 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 88 58 89 58 / 20 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 89 61 90 62 / 30 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 88 59 89 60 / 20 10 5 5 Placitas........................ 84 59 85 60 / 40 10 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 87 61 89 62 / 30 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 89 62 90 62 / 30 20 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 54 81 56 / 40 10 20 10 Tijeras......................... 80 56 82 57 / 40 10 20 10 Edgewood........................ 81 52 82 53 / 40 10 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 49 84 51 / 40 10 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 75 53 77 54 / 40 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 80 52 82 54 / 40 20 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 79 54 81 54 / 40 20 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 82 59 83 59 / 40 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 74 53 75 53 / 40 20 20 0 Capulin......................... 76 48 77 50 / 10 5 10 10 Raton........................... 79 48 80 49 / 30 5 20 10 Springer........................ 81 49 82 50 / 30 5 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 76 49 77 51 / 50 10 30 20 Clayton......................... 84 54 83 57 / 5 5 0 5 Roy............................. 80 52 80 53 / 20 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 86 57 86 59 / 20 10 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 82 56 84 56 / 30 20 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 84 55 84 57 / 10 10 0 10 Clovis.......................... 87 61 88 60 / 10 10 0 5 Portales........................ 87 61 89 60 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 86 60 87 59 / 20 20 0 5 Roswell......................... 89 63 91 62 / 10 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 57 85 57 / 20 10 5 0 Elk............................. 79 54 82 53 / 30 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11