423
FXUS65 KABQ 171140 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Numerous showers and storms today and Friday will increase the
  risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and
  in northeastern New Mexico.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany any storms each day and a few storms may become severe
  in the northeast Thursday afternoon.

- A low to moderate risk of burn scar of flash flooding will
  persist into the early and middle part of next week despite a
  downtick in storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Storms across eastern NM continue to tap into elevated instability
tonight. There is also several boundaries out there which have
caused storms to pulse up and down. Some near-stationary storms just
north of I-40 have resulted in some impressive rainfall
accumulations (upwards of 5" based on radar), however the flash
flood risk will continue to trend down through the night as storms
cluster together and instability wanes.

New Mexico will be stuck in between a ridge to the east and a Low to
the southwest on Thursday. Low-level moisture surging in from the
east overnight and mid-level moisture advection from the south will
help to set the stage for an active monsoon day. Initially storms
will develop over the central mountain chain and along the
Continental Divide, spreading into the lower elevations as outflow
boundaries move off the terrain. By the late afternoon, storms
will move off the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the northeast
highlands and plains. The GFS and NAM show a significant disparity
in instability across the northeast tomorrow afternoon so there
is a question with regard to storm intensity across the northeast.
If there is strong destabilization (as shown by the NAM), this
will be the favored area for both flash flooding and severe
storms. The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include the Sangre
de Cristo mountains eastward to the TX border. Recent guidance has
shifted the max precip eastward from the mountains to the plains,
which is good news for the HPCC burn scar, but likely won`t be
enough to prevent flash flooding there since HREF 50th percentile
rainfall totals still show 1-1.5" over the burn scar.

Recent hi-res guidance has trended higher with precipitation
totals over the Ruidoso are burn scars this afternoon. Models are
in excellent agreement that storms will develop in and around the
Ruidoso area between 11AM and 2PM. Individual models are showing
precipitation bullseyes in different areas so whether flooding
occurs will just come down to exactly where the heaviest wetting
footprint is. The flood threat will focus over the early time
period of the Flash Flood Watch as rainfall rates are expected to
decrease mid to late afternoon.

While a few showers will linger into the night across central and
western NM, eastern NM will be the favored area for storms to
persist into the night thanks to forcing from a shortwave and
southeasterly moisture advection. There is some uncertainty with
how far south these nocturnal storms will develop, so there is a
chance the Flash Flood Watch is expanded southward in the morning
based on recent model trends.

The center of the H5 ridge will shift westward on Friday into the TX
Panhandle. A subtle dry air intrusion from the west will decrease
rain chances somewhat across the west, with storms and storms
favoring central NM. It is very likely that another Flash Flood
Watch will be needed for the Ruidoso area, especially if impacts
occur today. A marginal risk of severe storms may once again be
introduced across the northeast where bulk shear of 20 to 25 kts
will support some stronger updrafts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The near-statioanry Baja Low will continue its slow trek northward
into the desert southwest on Saturday. A weak shortwave embedded
within this Low will help to enhance precipitation Saturday
afternoon, with western NM being favored. PWATs will trend down
closer to average this weekend as dry air begins to intrude from the
west. This will help to lower the threat of off-scar flash flooding,
but the moderate to high threat of burn scar flash flooding will
continue each day we remain within this pattern. Long-term PWAT time
series show a gradual drop in moisture early next week, however both
the GEFS and ENS have several members that maintain near to above
average moisture over the region. Increasing heights will result in
a gradual warming trend early to mid-next week, creating moderate
heat risk concerns along the Rio Grande Valley and in eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The last cluster of storms in far eastern NM should completely
exit into TX around 15Z. Derived satellite products suggest the
presence of IFR to MVFR cigs in the northeast quadrant of the
state, although no obs have picked up on this thus far. There`s a
low chance that cigs briefly drop at KLVS or KTCC this morning
before clearing occurs.

Numerous showers and storms today will develop over the high
terrain and move to the north at 5 to 15 kts. Gusty outflow winds
to 50 mph will be commonplace and stronger gusts may occur in the
northeast. Brief vis reductions below 6SM can be expected with
stronger storms, but these will be short-lived. Storms will
decrease in coverage after 03Z, except across the northeast where
storms could persist as late as 12Z. There is a low to moderate
chance that MVFR cigs develop in eastern NM tomorrow night in the
wake of overnight convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
New Mexico will be located in between a ridge to the east and a Low
to the west, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and storms
the next few afternoon and evenings. Gusty outflow winds and wetting
rainfall will be commonplace and rainfall amounts through Friday
will likely exceed 1" in the northeast quadrant of the state. Rain
chances trend down slightly this weekend into early next week,
however at least scattered storms are expected to persist across
most of the state. Humidities will trend up today and tomorrow,
then trend drier early next week, especially across the west. Near
average temps the next few days rise above seasonal averages
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  65  92  66 /  30  30  20  20
Dulce...........................  87  48  89  50 /  60  40  50  30
Cuba............................  85  57  86  59 /  60  50  50  30
Gallup..........................  86  54  88  55 /  60  40  40  20
El Morro........................  83  55  85  57 /  80  50  60  40
Grants..........................  87  56  88  57 /  70  60  60  40
Quemado.........................  83  56  84  59 /  70  50  70  40
Magdalena.......................  85  62  84  63 /  60  50  60  50
Datil...........................  82  56  82  58 /  70  40  70  50
Reserve.........................  89  54  90  57 /  60  30  70  30
Glenwood........................  92  59  93  62 /  50  30  60  30
Chama...........................  80  48  81  50 /  70  50  70  30
Los Alamos......................  82  61  83  62 /  70  60  60  30
Pecos...........................  82  57  84  59 /  80  60  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  82  54  83  56 /  80  60  70  30
Red River.......................  72  46  74  48 /  90  60  70  30
Angel Fire......................  75  45  76  44 /  80  70  70  30
Taos............................  85  53  85  55 /  70  60  50  20
Mora............................  78  51  81  52 /  80  70  60  40
Espanola........................  91  61  91  62 /  60  60  40  30
Santa Fe........................  84  61  85  63 /  70  60  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  88  59  88  61 /  60  50  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  68  91  70 /  50  50  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  67  93  68 /  50  50  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  66  95  67 /  50  50  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  67  93  69 /  50  50  20  30
Belen...........................  95  64  94  65 /  40  40  20  30
Bernalillo......................  94  66  94  67 /  60  50  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  94  64  94  65 /  40  50  20  30
Corrales........................  95  67  94  68 /  50  50  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  95  65  94  65 /  40  40  20  30
Placitas........................  90  64  90  67 /  60  50  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  93  68 /  50  50  30  30
Socorro.........................  97  69  96  68 /  40  40  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  59  86  61 /  60  50  40  40
Tijeras.........................  86  61  87  63 /  60  50  40  40
Edgewood........................  86  57  86  58 /  60  50  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  56  88  56 /  60  40  40  40
Clines Corners..................  80  57  82  59 /  60  40  40  30
Mountainair.....................  85  58  86  60 /  60  40  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  85  59  85  59 /  60  40  60  40
Carrizozo.......................  88  65  87  65 /  60  30  60  30
Ruidoso.........................  80  59  79  58 /  70  20  80  30
Capulin.........................  81  55  84  56 /  90  60  30  20
Raton...........................  82  55  86  56 /  80  60  40  20
Springer........................  85  56  89  57 /  80  60  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  80  55  84  57 /  80  60  40  30
Clayton.........................  83  62  90  66 /  70  80   5  20
Roy.............................  83  59  87  61 /  60  60  10  20
Conchas.........................  91  64  94  68 /  40  60   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  63  90  65 /  30  40  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  89  63  92  66 /  20  50   0   5
Clovis..........................  93  66  94  67 /  20  40   0   5
Portales........................  95  67  95  67 /  20  30   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  94  66  94  68 /  20  30   5  10
Roswell.........................  97  71  99  70 /  20  20  10   5
Picacho.........................  90  64  89  63 /  50  20  40  20
Elk.............................  86  61  86  60 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-227>232.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16