265
FXUS65 KABQ 150000 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms through the weekend.
  Isolated flash flooding will be a concern each afternoon,
  including over the Ruidoso area burn scars, with Saturday being
  of particular concern.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The moist monsoonal airmass remains across the region as we sit
between subtropical ridging to the east and troughing to the west.
We will see a similar convective pattern to yesterday, though with
faster cloud clearing this morning, modestly greater surface
heating and destabilization will support scattered to numerous
showers and storms. Activity will focus over the central mountain
chain westward, with some showers and storms spreading to the
northeast and the east central plains during the evening hours at
around 10-20 mph. With ample moisture in place (PWATs generally
1.0-1.3 inches, with the 18Z ABQ sounding coming in at 1.19
inches), heavy rainfall will be possible. This is particularly the
case for portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico, as
well as the northern mountains, where HREF LPMM guidance hints at
isolated 24-hour totals of 1-2 inches. While east-northeasterly
progressive storm motions should generally limit the duration of
rainfall at any one location, localized flash flooding remains a
hazard, especially in areas with vulnerable terrain and/or recent
heavy rainfall.

On Saturday, PWATs decrease a tad, but with CAPE values around
1000 J/kg, particularly across portions of the Sacramento
Mountains and the Ruidoso area, any developing storms will be of
concern. With favorable low-level convergence, forecast steering
flow running parallel to the terrain, and sufficient moisture,
this setup could result in slow-moving, repeating rounds of
precipitation, especially over and near the burn scar areas.
Forecast QPF totals are around 0.75 inches to just over an inch,
but some high-res guidance is displaying isolated totals between
1-2 inches. With flash flooding potentially becoming a significant
threat in and downstream of the Ruidoso burn scars, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued, beginning at 17Z Saturday until 00Z
Sunday.

Farther north, a mid-level disturbance crossing the south-central
Rockies will likely initiate a cluster of thunderstorms east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with some activity potentially
extending into portions of our CWA in far northeastern New Mexico.
Steep lapse rates aloft and around 30-40 knots of effective bulk
shear could support isolated storms capable of hail and severe
wind gusts. Heavy rain is also a threat, particularly where any
storms interact with the terrain and/or repeatedly move across the
same areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The ridge will gradually shift west into New Mexico on Sunday,
disrupting our moisture inflow. However, with weaker winds aloft,
this will allow for the pooling of moisture across western and
northern New Mexico. This setup looks to produce the most
widespread coverage we will see over the next few days, favoring
the northern high terrain. Storm motions will be slow and erratic
increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. Additionally, soils in northeast NM are incredibly
dry and may act as hydrophobic surfaces, allowing for fast runoff
and quickly developing flash flooding. One thing that will need
to be watched is how Saturday`s storm development and remnant
outflow boundaries may affect the placement and strength of the
forecast storms on Sunday.

By early in the work week, the strengthening ridge will promote
drier and warmer conditions, allowing highs to return to near or
slightly above normal. Forecast confidence is still a bit low as
we head past midweek. However, models are starting to come into a
bit more agreement regarding the evolution of the western ridge
and downstream troughing. As of writing, models have a weak trough
moving across the Rockies and through the Plains, sending a
backdoor front or two through the northeastern corner of the
region. This will help increase precipitation chances once again
by late in the week, however, mainly focused on the higher
terrain. Since a good deal of uncertainty still surrounds the
forecast this far out, details are subject to adjustment as the
larger scale pattern becomes better defined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

After scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, isolated
activity will linger after midnight along and just east of the
continental divide. Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will return to the mountains on Saturday afternoon,
as well as along and east of the central mountain chain; except
for numerous cells along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, and along and just east of the Sacramento Mountains.
Most storms will move toward the northeast around 10-20 KT both
this evening and Saturday afternoon. A few of the stronger storms
this evening and Saturday will be capable of producing wet
microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45
KT. An isolated severe storm or two could also produce 50 KT winds
and large hail on the northeast plains this evening, then again
on Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast
through the next several days. Humidity recoveries will
consistently be good to excellent through tomorrow morning,
becoming fair to excellent Sunday through the end of next week.
Storm coverage through the remainder of the day will be
scattered to numerous, with storms moving from southwest to
northeast at 10-20 mph. Very brief outflows from any stronger
thunderstorms can be expected. Precipitation chances target the
central mountain chain on Saturday, before expanding in coverage
again on Sunday as the center of the ridge shifts westward. This
weekend will be the highest chances for wetting rainfall we have
seen so far over the last several days. Isolated flash flooding
will be a concern this weekend, including over recent burn scars.
Ridging will remain in place over the desert southwest early next
week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms generally
favoring the higher terrain and drier conditions expected
elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  90  59  92 /   5   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  54  87  55  89 /  20   5   0   5
Cuba............................  58  86  58  88 /  30   5   0  20
Gallup..........................  52  86  53  88 /  20   5   0  30
El Morro........................  55  81  56  82 /  30  10   5  40
Grants..........................  54  87  53  87 /  30  10   5  40
Quemado.........................  56  82  58  84 /  20  10   5  50
Magdalena.......................  61  83  62  84 /  30  30  10  50
Datil...........................  55  80  57  81 /  30  20  10  50
Reserve.........................  57  88  58  90 /  20  20  10  40
Glenwood........................  62  93  63  94 /  10  10  10  40
Chama...........................  52  81  53  81 /  20   5   0  10
Los Alamos......................  61  83  63  80 /  40  30   5  50
Pecos...........................  56  87  55  84 /  30  20  10  80
Cerro/Questa....................  54  83  55  82 /  30  20   5  50
Red River.......................  46  72  48  70 /  30  40  10  70
Angel Fire......................  42  76  42  74 /  40  50  10  80
Taos............................  54  85  52  83 /  30  20   5  40
Mora............................  54  82  54  79 /  40  50  10  90
Espanola........................  63  92  64  92 /  30  10   0  40
Santa Fe........................  57  87  56  81 /  30  10   5  60
Santa Fe Airport................  58  89  59  85 /  30  10   5  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  91  65  91 /  30   5   5  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  91  67  90 /  30   5   5  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  93  66  93 /  30   5   5  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  93  65  93 /  30   5   5  40
Belen...........................  66  95  67  95 /  30  10   5  30
Bernalillo......................  65  93  65  93 /  30   5   5  50
Bosque Farms....................  64  93  65  94 /  30  10   5  40
Corrales........................  65  94  65  94 /  30   5   5  50
Los Lunas.......................  64  94  65  94 /  30  10   5  30
Placitas........................  65  90  64  89 /  30  10   5  60
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  68  94 /  30   5   5  40
Socorro.........................  66  94  66  93 /  30  20   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  87  62  86 /  30  10   5  60
Tijeras.........................  62  88  63  87 /  30  10   5  60
Edgewood........................  60  88  60  87 /  30  20   5  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  90  55  89 /  30  20  10  60
Clines Corners..................  58  85  57  81 /  30  20  10  70
Mountainair.....................  59  88  60  87 /  30  20  10  70
Gran Quivira....................  60  87  60  86 /  30  30  10  70
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  65  90 /  20  40  10  60
Ruidoso.........................  59  81  59  81 /  10  70  10  70
Capulin.........................  57  84  57  79 /  30  60  40  90
Raton...........................  56  86  56  84 /  30  60  30  90
Springer........................  57  89  56  85 /  30  50  20  90
Las Vegas.......................  54  84  54  80 /  40  30  20  80
Clayton.........................  65  91  63  86 /  30  30  60  50
Roy.............................  61  90  61  85 /  30  20  40  70
Conchas.........................  68  98  67  93 /  30  20  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  67  94  66  91 /  20  20  30  50
Tucumcari.......................  71 100  68  95 /  20  20  40  40
Clovis..........................  68  96  67  94 /  10  10  20  10
Portales........................  69  97  68  96 /  10  10  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  69  97  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  70  99  69  98 /  10  20  20   5
Picacho.........................  65  92  64  92 /  20  60  20  10
Elk.............................  61  88  60  88 /  20  70  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...44