287
FXUS65 KABQ 030523 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1019 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

- While precipitation chances diminish, rivers across
  northwestern and north-central New Mexico will remain near or
  above bankfull.

- Breezy to windy conditions will occur today across the
  Sacramento Mountains, central highlands and eastern plains.

- Drier conditions arrive Tuesday and persist through the rest of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1122 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The deep upper level low is pushing over the northeast corner of
NM with a strong gradient aloft overlaying the state. The Pacific
front has swept through much of the area as well, and gusty
veering winds will strengthen through the afternoon. Through the
mid afternoon, wind highlights remain unchanged with the Warnings
in the central to south central highlands and Advisories in
surrounding areas and into the east central plains. However, the
strong gradient, both at the surface and aloft, looks to be
stubborn, if not intensifying over the northeast (Union county)
this evening and tonight. This has prompted a Wind Advisory there
that will run from 4 PM MST through the overnight.

As for precipitation, the coverage and intensity has really
subsided with wrap-around dynamics and orographic flow keeping the
northern mountains in some showers. Light snow is even being
reported at KAXX, but snow levels should rise a bit through the
late afternoon. Additional QPF and snow will remain light through
the afternoon and early evening with another 0.25 inch of liquid
equivalent over the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Pass area through
the evening and lighter amounts of just a few hundredths of an
inch in Union county.

The winds will remain gusty on the higher terrain and ridges along
the Continental Divide and central mountain chain tonight, but
speeds will reduce notably from today`s readings. The breezes may
be enough to keep fog from developing into early Tuesday morning,
and instead force a layer of low stratus clouds, particularly in
west central to northwestern zones. However, given the tendency
for full decoupling in lower elevation and sheltered areas, felt
it best to include mention of fog/freezing fog in some of these
west central, northwestern, and even north central zones through
Tuesday morning. Any fog should remain patchy, tending to favor
the most saturated soils and areas of standing water.

Much more tranquility arrives on Tuesday via lighter and drier
northwest flow aloft. It will be a chilly, but seasonable start to
the day with daytime temperatures rising near to just slightly
under normal values for early November. Winds will be notably
lighter, making for a pleasant day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1122 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

A relatively weak Pacific low is still slated to move inland,
crossing the Great Basin Tuesday night and moving into CO on
Wednesday. This low still looks to carry scant showers within its
core, but no moisture tap will sync up with it while it remains
void of strong dynamics aloft. Therefore, just a smattering of
light showers is in the forecast along the NM-CO border for
Wednesday with temperatures rising a few degrees. Winds would
increase a bit, but most areas will just stay in the breezy
category with a few west southwesterly gusts of 30 to 35 mph
along the central mountain chain into the northeast highlands.

Into Thursday, the CO low will drop southeastward into the
southern plains with cooler air filtering into NM on the backside.
Cold air advection will be modest with daytime highs running
slightly below normal. The backdoor segment of this front would
lead to strong northerly winds in the far eastern plains.
Currently gusts are forecast to reach about 30-35 mph in the far
eastern plains Thursday, but these might need to trend upward on
future shifts.

The next upstream feature will be a baggy, weak trough that will
stretch from the central Rockies into the southwestern states on
Friday. This will keep winds aloft light over NM with low
prospects for precipitation due to a lack of forcing. This feature
will slide southeastward into Saturday, and a ridge of high
pressure will then build over NM and surrounding areas Sunday into
Monday of next week. There are hints of a weak upstream cut-off
low developing over or just west of the Baja on deterministic
model runs by next Monday, but subsequently this feature does not
look to ingest much subtropical moisture or pose large impacts to
NM at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Winds have tapered off most areas, but staying windy tonight thru
northeastern NM and areas along the central mountain chain. Mist
and fog development will be the other main aviation weather
concern tonight, with favored areas along the Continental Divide
and in central and western valley locations. TAF AMDs may be
needed at KFMN and KGUP to address this early Tuesday morning.
Any fog and mist that does develop will burn off past sunrise with
lessening winds area wide as VFR reigns through most of the
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Windy conditions will persist through the afternoon with gusts of
35 to 55 mph being common and the strongest gusts found in the
central highlands and east central plains. Winds will start to
decouple and decrease after sunset, but will remain gusty along
ridges and higher exposed terrain overnight. The exception to this
will be in the far northeastern corner of the state where the
gradient will remain strong, keeping stiff northerly gusts
continuing all night. Additional rain and high elevation snow
will be light with generally less than a quarter of an inch over
the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Pass areas through the late
evening. Excellent humidity recovery is forecast tonight with
cooler temperatures.

Other than a few exceptions, a generally drier and less windy
period is then forecast for much of the forecast area through the
remainder of the week. Conditions on Tuesday will be tranquil. Light
showers will be possible over the NM-CO border on Wednesday, but
will not provide any appreciable fuel moisture. Breezy conditions
will develop Wednesday, but no critical conditions are foreseen.
Winds turn stronger from the north on Thursday in the plains as
cooler air sinks in. Lighter winds are then forecast Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  35  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  25  57  24  59 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  31  53  32  57 /   5   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  27  59  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  26  58  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  30  59  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  35  59  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  31  59  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  28  69  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  70  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  24  51  26  53 /   5   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  34  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  30  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  30  52  32  55 /   5   0   0  10
Red River.......................  23  45  23  48 /  10   0   0  10
Angel Fire......................  14  50  14  54 /  10   0   0   5
Taos............................  24  54  24  57 /  10   0   0  10
Mora............................  27  55  27  61 /  10   0   0   5
Espanola........................  32  61  32  64 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  34  55  34  57 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  31  56  32  59 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  60  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  37  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  63  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  62  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  32  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  36  63  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  62  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  37  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  31  62  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  38  59  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  39  62  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  40  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  35  56  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  31  57  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  28  59  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  33  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  32  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  32  58  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  39  61  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  35  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  30  49  30  58 /  60   5   0   5
Raton...........................  30  56  29  61 /  30   0   0   5
Springer........................  30  57  28  64 /  10   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  31  55  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  55  37  61 /  60   0   0   0
Roy.............................  34  56  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  40  62  40  68 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  39  59  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  40  62  39  66 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  45  62  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  63  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  41  63  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  46  63  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  42  62  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  37  63  36  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for NMZ230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24