272
FXUS65 KABQ 011208 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 605 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Arroyos, rivers and streams will continue to run high today
  after recent rainfall. Stay away from river banks.

- Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times each morning through
  Friday.

- Northerly wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph will cause strong
  crosswinds on east to west oriented roads across northeast NM
  today.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Quick update to include the Far Northeast Highlands into the Wind
Advisory for today. Raton Airport recently gusted to 51 mph as
light rain helped to bring down the stronger momentum from aloft.
This may continue to occur today. New NPW already out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper low is exiting northeast NM early this morning. Light
showers continue to linger across northeast NM but no additional
impacts are expected. Main concern through the rest of the morning
is patchy fog and low clouds across western and portions of
central NM. Visibility may drop to one half mile at times, but it
remains difficult to say where has the best chances since all
areas are saturated after the recent rainfall.

Northerly wind gusts near 30-35 kt have already been noted across
far northeast NM early this morning. The H7 low will be centered
over the OK Panhandle by mid morning and models indicate 50kt
northerly winds over NE NM on the back side of the low. While it`s
not likely that all of this momentum will make it to the surface,
it is likely that gusty winds will plague northeast NM much of the
day. Gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be common, though a few
gusts over 50 mph are not out of the question. Have issued a Wind
Advisory for the Bartlett and Johnson Mesas (Raton Pass) as well
as Union County. Later shifts will need to monitor if the Wind
Advisory will need to be expanded to Harding County and the I-25
corridor south of Raton.

The northerly upslope flow onto the Raton Ridge will keep showers
going in this area throughout the day. Then, while the main upper
low continues to track east-northeastward, some energy will peel
off and develop a new weaker low over south central NM that may
retrograde slightly going into Friday. As this occurs, surface
winds will veer around to the northeast and east, allowing moist
upslope flow over the eastern plains and south central mountains
late tonight into Friday morning. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be light (<0.10" in most locations and no more than
0.25"). In fact, it may be drizzle across the eastern plains
rather than rain Thursday night. A weak to moderate gap wind is
expected in the Rio Grande Valley (gusts near 25-30 mph) Thursday
night as well. Light showers will continue through the day on
Friday across the south central mountains. Elsewhere, quiet
conditions on tap with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

While the new upper low center remains across far south central or
southeast NM on Friday night, an upper level high will be building
in from the northwest. The upper high will become more and more
dominant over NM through the weekend allowing temperatures to
climb, and keeping precipitation chances nil. Light winds are
expected Saturday, but easterly flow increases a bit on Sunday. A
few gusts near 20-25 mph will develop during the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a beautiful weekend to get outside.

Not much change is in store for Monday as the upper high weakens.
It continues to look like an upper level shortwave will cross NM
on Tuesday. Models are struggling with the details, but it does
look like at least some precipitation will be in store. The GFS
and GEFS are more robust with precipitation than other models
though. Some light precipitation may linger Wednesday, but another
upper high should begin building over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light rain will persist across far northeast NM today. Low VFR
cigs will be common with this activity, though some brief
excursions into MVFR is possible. Low clouds have also developed
across portions of western NM early this morning and it`s likely
some patchy fog exists as well. IFR to MVFR cigs should improve by
17Z today. Northerly winds with gusts around 35kt have already
developed across far northeast NM. These wind gusts will increase
in speed to between 35 and 45kt through mid afternoon across
northeast NM, while gusts near 30-35kt will be more common across
east central areas. Additional showers or drizzle will develop
this evening and overnight near and east of the Central Mountain
Chain. VFR cigs will lower to MVFR overnight across eastern NM.
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog will also be possible
across valley locations of northern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

No fire weather concerns for the next several days due to recent
rainfall. Gusty north winds will persist across northeast and east
central NM today. Gusts between 30 and 50 mph are expected. Light
showers will continue across the northeast with additional showers
developing tonight across east central NM. Quiet conditions
expected over the weekend, though poor ventilation is expected for
most areas on Saturday. There are low chances for precipitation
Tuesday and Wednesday as a shortwave crosses NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  71  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  44  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  69  42  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  67  42  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  67  41  67  40 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  67  44  66  42 /   0   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  64  47  63  45 /   0  10   5   0
Datil...........................  63  43  61  42 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  47  71  45 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  77  51  76  49 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  61  40  68  41 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  64  46  67  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  63  41  67  42 /   0   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  58  38  67  40 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  49  34  60  37 /  20   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  51  31  63  27 /  20   5   0   0
Taos............................  62  38  69  38 /   0   5   0   0
Mora............................  59  40  64  41 /   5   5   0   0
Espanola........................  69  44  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  63  42  66  42 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  66  43  67  43 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  49  71  51 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  50  72  53 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  52  73  54 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  49  72  52 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  73  52  72  50 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  72  48  73  50 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  73  50  73  50 /   5   5   0   0
Corrales........................  72  49  73  51 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  73  50  72  50 /   5   5   0   0
Placitas........................  69  47  70  48 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  72  49  72  49 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  71  51  71  49 /  10  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  45  64  45 /   5   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  66  46  67  46 /   5   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  64  45  66  43 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  41  67  39 /   5   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  61  43  61  44 /   0   5   5   0
Mountainair.....................  63  46  63  43 /  10   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  63  46  62  43 /  10   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  52  64  48 /   0  30  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  61  47  56  46 /   5  60  50  20
Capulin.........................  53  44  64  43 /  80  30   0   0
Raton...........................  58  42  68  41 /  70  10   0   0
Springer........................  62  42  69  42 /  10   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  60  41  64  42 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  50  66  48 /  80  40   0   0
Roy.............................  62  46  66  45 /   5  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  70  54  70  51 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  68  53  67  50 /   5  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  69  52  67  50 /  10  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  69  51  65  48 /  10  30  10   0
Portales........................  71  55  66  51 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  56  69  52 /   0  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  76  56  69  53 /   0  10  20   5
Picacho.........................  70  53  62  51 /   0  60  70  30
Elk.............................  67  51  60  49 /   5  70  70  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ227-228-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34