703
FXUS65 KABQ 190536 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- Minor to moderate heat risk continues Thursday and Friday as
  above normal temperatures continue. Isolated areas of major
  heat risk across central and western New Mexico.

- The threat of rapid fire spread returns to western New Mexico
  Friday and Saturday due to breezy southwest winds and very low
  humidity.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase late weekend and into
  early next week across central and eastern New Mexico,
  increasing the threat of flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Some high based cumulus have developed along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain early this afternoon where dewpoints are
currently sitting in the upper 40s and 50s. Much drier air is in
place further west and deeper mixing has dropped dewpoints at KABQ
into the 20s, despite being in the low 50s just this morning. Hi-res
models are not in great agreement if we`ll see any storms this
afternoon, but the best chance would be in the northeast highlands
if an updraft is able to get going along the east slopes of the
northern Sangre de Cristo mountains. With high pressure aloft, a
weak sfc low has developed in southwestern NM and has started to
create southerly flow at the sfc in western and central NM. This
will drive smoke from the Trout fire northward through the
evening, potentially reaching as far north as I-40 late tonight.
Air quality concerns will generally be confined to the area
immediately surrounding the fire, but smoke settling into western
mountain valleys overnight could create localized health concerns.
As winds increase tomorrow, smoke aloft will spread around much
of western and central NM, creating hazy skies. Once again, air
quality concerns should be limited, but it could settle into
valleys such as the Rio Grande Friday morning, especially if the
fire burns hot tomorrow and produces a lot of smoke. Other than
the smoke, the main weather concern tomorrow will be the heat when
there is >50% chance that high temps reach 100F in the San Juan
and Rio Grande river valleys. For this reason, Heat Advisories
were issued for the Northwest Plateau and the Middle Rio Grande
Valley, including Farmington and Albuquerque.

Models have become slightly more bullish about the development of
storms along the central mountain chain tomorrow afternoon, with
at least a low chance of a shower or two over both recent burn
scars. The HREF mean 6-hour precip is showing around 0.1" over the
Ruidoso complex of burn scars, with a less than 5% chance of
0.5"+. Storms will be moving very slowly so there is a low chance
of a storm raining itself out right over a burn scar, but the
flash flood risk does remain low, especially considering that the
area has had a few days to dry out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The longwave ridge will continue its trek into the southern plains
on Friday, allowing southerly flow to intensify over New Mexico.
This will likely continue to transport any smoke from the fires in
the Gila mountains into central and northern New Mexico, potentially
creating hazy skies. It will once again be hot, with 100F being
threatened in Albuquerque and Farmington. This will be on the heels
of several hot days so the cumulative effect of the heat will
further increase the risk of heat-related illnesses. Some models are
showing a few showers developing over the high terrain of western
and northern New Mexico, but the dry boundary layer will prevent
much rain from reaching the ground.

The trough off to the northwest will send some drier air in from the
west Saturday so any gusty showers will be confined to the central
mountain chain eastward. The ridge over the southern plains will
shift over the southeast on Saturday and in combination with a Great
Basin trough will advect a monsoon moisture plume into New Mexico
from the south. Convective activity will trend up in coverage on
Sunday, further increasing Monday and Tuesday. There is some
uncertainty with regard to exactly where these higher PWATs will
be, with the ENS showing the plume further east than the GEFS which
has enough moisture for storms all the way to the AZ border.

Storm motion will be relatively fast during this period (15 to 30
mph), but that won`t do much to mitigate the flash flood threat
because deformation aloft and southeastern flow at the sfc will
contribute to the development of training storms that will not be as
terrain or diurnally dependent compared to a typical Monsoon set-
up. 72 hour QPF totals from Monday through Wednesday could be
quite impressive with the NBM 50th percentile already showing
greater than 0.5" across most of the CWA and a bullseye of 1.5" in
the central highlands. Notably, the 90th percentile has totals of
2-4" over both of the burn scars so that will be something to
watch closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. There are low
probabilities for MVFR cigs late tonight toward sunrise Thursday
across portions of eastern NM, namely around KLVS and northeast
NM, but confidence is too low to insert into the TAF attm. An east
(southeast) canyon wind has developed at KABQ (KSAF) late tonight.
A few gusts up to 25 kt may occur at KABQ but confidence is also
low. Breezy southerly winds will develop Thursday afternoon across
all areas. Strongest winds will be across northeast NM where
gusts near 30kt are expected. Otherwise, a few showers and
thunderstorms are expected near and just east of the central
mountain chain where weak upslope and a surface moisture gradient
exists. These storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds in
excess of 35kt, small hail and brief but heavy rainfall. These
storms will diminish around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE WEEK...

South to southwest winds will gradually strengthen the next few
afternoons as the ridge currently overhead shifts off to the east
and a trough approaches from the northwest. Moisture will be very
dependent on longitude as eastern New Mexico will continue to see
excellent RH recoveries, with poor recoveries in western NM where
the fuels remain very dry. A Fire Weather Watch was introduced for
the Northwest Plateau on Friday due to the aformentioned
strengthening winds. Wind is marginal for much of the zone, but high
ERCs and 8 to 12 hours of single digit relative humidity do pose a
concern. There is a low to moderate chance that the Watch will be
expanded south and eastward, especially given that recent trends in
the ENS mean bring drier air and stronger winds as far east as the
Rio Grande Valley. Other models develop light showers and even some
dry thunderstorms in central and northern New Mexico on Friday
afternoon. Saturday could be another critical fire weather day in
the northwest, with increasing precipitation chances in the east as
moisture begins to surge in from the south. Monday through Thursday
of next week look wet with showers and storms favoring central and
eastern New Mexico. QPF totals during the Monday through Wednesday
period look promising with a very high chance of wetting rainfall
from the Continental Divide eastward. Confidence in precipitation
across the northwest is not as high, but the precipitation
chances will increase mid-week as the monsoonal moisture plume
shifts westward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57 101  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  94  53  92 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  55  92  61  91 /   0   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  48  97  52  95 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  92  58  91 /   0   5   0  10
Grants..........................  52  96  56  96 /   0  10   0  20
Quemado.........................  57  93  60  94 /   0   5   0  10
Magdalena.......................  65  92  67  91 /   0  10   5  20
Datil...........................  57  89  59  90 /   0  20   5  20
Reserve.........................  52  98  54  98 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  57 102  60 102 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  47  86  51  85 /   0   5   0  10
Los Alamos......................  61  88  63  89 /   0  10   5  20
Pecos...........................  57  85  58  88 /   5  20   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  54  86  59  87 /   0  10   0  10
Red River.......................  45  77  50  78 /   0  20   0  10
Angel Fire......................  39  80  45  82 /   0  10   0  10
Taos............................  50  89  54  90 /   0  10   0  10
Mora............................  49  82  51  85 /   5  30   0  20
Espanola........................  59  96  63  96 /   0  10   0  10
Santa Fe........................  62  88  64  91 /   0  10   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  61  92  63  94 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  96  71  97 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  98  70  99 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  66 101  69 101 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  99  70  99 /   0  10   5  10
Belen...........................  64 100  68 100 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  65  99  68 100 /   0  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  63 100  68  99 /   0  10   5  10
Corrales........................  66 100  69 101 /   0  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  65 100  69 100 /   0  10   5  10
Placitas........................  66  95  69  96 /   0  10   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  99  70  99 /   0  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  70 102  73 102 /   0  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  90  62  92 /   0  10   5  10
Tijeras.........................  61  92  64  94 /   0  10   5  10
Edgewood........................  56  90  57  92 /   0  20   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  90  54  93 /   0  20   5  10
Clines Corners..................  57  85  58  87 /   5  20   5  10
Mountainair.....................  57  90  61  92 /   0  20   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  59  91 /   0  20   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  65  93  64  94 /   0  20   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  58  85  60  87 /   5  30   0  20
Capulin.........................  54  84  59  86 /  10  20   0   5
Raton...........................  52  88  54  90 /   5  20   0   5
Springer........................  54  89  57  92 /  10  20   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  54  85  57  88 /   5  20   0  10
Clayton.........................  60  91  67  94 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  58  88  62  90 /   5  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  64  96  67  97 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  92  65  94 /   5  10   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  65  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  65  95  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  96  67  97 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  71  99  72 102 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  93  62  96 /   0  20   0  10
Elk.............................  58  91  60  95 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-219.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34