287
FXUS65 KABQ 061147 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall may create minor
  flooding over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday.
  Areas on and downstream of burn scars, including the Ruidoso
  area, will have the higher risk of flooding.

- Isolated light showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of west
  central New Mexico Saturday may result in strong and erratic
  gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts.

- Mostly dry and and seasonably hot conditions next week with a
  moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Latest forecast trends are toward lower storm chances today along
the central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley. Drier and more
stable air is shown sliding farther east into more of central and
western NM as an H5 ridge drifts southeast into southwest NM. The
deeper moisture will remain over eastern NM on the backside of a
departing upper level low. Storms are still expected to fire up
along the east slopes of the central mt chain then move south-
southeast into the high plains of eastern NM thru sunset. Outflows
will be strong again with cells on the western periphery today as
DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg with the drier air advecting east. Storms
will gather steam as they push farther east into better low level
moisture and instability. Several CAMs show max QPF values near
1.5" with the stronger cells over southeast NM, including HREF and
REFS LPMMs (local probability matched mean).

The upper level high will crest over the region tonight as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Slightly stronger westerly
winds over the region Sunday will help to boost temps above normal
with much of eastern NM topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s.
A thin layer of mid level moisture creeping north into southwest
NM ahead of the approaching trough may squeeze out a couple virga
showers by late day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

By Monday, the aforementioned upper level high will strengthen over
TX while the upper level trough advances east into western AZ. This
squeeze play will force a 55-65kt speed max into western NM Monday
afternoon. Improving ascent with the upper jet and enough mid level
moisture seeping north ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated
to scattered virga showers and dry storms to develop over central
NM. Model DCAPE values as high as 1800 J/kg over western NM with
large inverted-V profiles would support strong downburst winds.
Even global models show outflow boundaries emanating from this
area of showers by late Monday afternoon.

The focus for high-based showers and perhaps dry storms shifts into
eastern NM by Tuesday as the upper level trough attempts to suppress
the upper ridge farther southeast into TX. Breezy southwest winds
over western and central NM may pose a risk to new fire starts from
any dry lightning strikes on Monday. Extended guidance is coming
into better agreement with dry zonal flow over the entire region
by Wednesday as the upper trough lifts north and the upper high
reorganizes over northern MX.

Long range models largely disagree on how the subtropical ridge to
our south will evolve over the southwest CONUS next weekend. This
ridge is our monsoon high beginning to make an appearance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A patch of IFR low cigs and MVFR vsbys around KCVN will clear
after sunrise. SHRA/TS will then form along the central mt chain
around noon then shift south/southeast around 15KT into nearby
highlands and plains of eastern NM thru sunset. Direct hits will
produce strong outflow wind gusts near 45KT, brief heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning strikes. Clearing will occur from west to
east this evening with SKC and lighter winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Single digit humidity with slightly stronger west winds will spread
farther east across western and central NM today. Meanwhile, areas
along and east of the central mt chain will see another round of
showers and storms with strong outflow winds and moderate to locally
heavy rainfall. Storm motion will be south to southeast at 15 to 20
mph. An upper level trough will approach from the west Sunday thru
Tuesday with increasing southwest winds and hot temperatures. Single
digit humidity and poor recoveries will focus over much of western
NM during this period with elevated to locally critical fire weather
likely. Areas between the Cont Divide and the central mt chain may
see high-based showers and dry storms Monday and Tuesday with strong
downburst wind gusts. The greatest chance for a Fire Weather Watch
is Tuesday and Wednesday over western NM when critical conditions
coincide with RFTI values of 3 to 6 and ERC values above the 90th
percentile.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  57  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  46  85  45 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  87  55  85  54 /  10   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  90  50  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  86  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  89  55  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  86  52  84  51 /   0   0  10   0
Magdalena.......................  86  61  86  60 /  10   5   0   0
Datil...........................  85  56  82  54 /   0   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  90  48  89  49 /   5   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  93  51  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  81  44  79  44 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  83  58  84  60 /  40   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  84  50  86  54 /  40  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  82  51  82  54 /  40  20   0   0
Red River.......................  73  43  74  46 /  50  20   0   0
Angel Fire......................  77  42  78  47 /  50  10   0   0
Taos............................  85  48  85  52 /  30  10   0   0
Mora............................  81  50  84  53 /  50  10   0   0
Espanola........................  91  56  92  57 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  84  57  85  60 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  54  88  57 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  65  92  67 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  62  93  63 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  62  96  63 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  63  94  64 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  95  60  95  61 /   5  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  63  95  64 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  95  59  95  60 /  10   5   0   0
Corrales........................  95  63  95  64 /  10   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  95  61  95  61 /  10   5   0   0
Placitas........................  90  63  90  65 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  94  63  94  64 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  66  97  66 /  10  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  58  87  61 /  10  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  88  57  88  60 /  10  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  88  55  88  58 /  20  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  51  90  54 /  20  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  83  54  86  57 /  30  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  87  55  88  56 /  10  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  56  87  57 /  20  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  87  62  91  65 /  20  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  57  83  60 /  20  10   5   0
Capulin.........................  80  49  89  53 /  30  20   0   0
Raton...........................  86  50  91  52 /  30  10   0   0
Springer........................  85  50  92  53 /  30  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  82  50  87  53 /  50  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  83  55  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
Roy.............................  82  52  92  57 /  40  20   0   0
Conchas.........................  89  57 100  61 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  86  55  97  61 /  20  20   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  88  59 100  64 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  59  96  64 /  20  10   0   0
Portales........................  84  59  97  64 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  87  58 100  62 /  20  20   0   0
Roswell.........................  89  61 101  64 /   5  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  58  94  62 /  20  20  10   0
Elk.............................  85  57  90  60 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42