654
FXUS65 KABQ 010815
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
115 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Heavier rainfall will return today through Monday morning
  across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a
  chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River
  rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a
  moderate to high chance for river flooding.

- Severe thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern New
  Mexico this afternoon and tonight, bringing a threat for hail,
  damaging winds and tornadoes.

- A few inches of snow will fall over the northern mountains above
  9000 feet Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy fog and low clouds will continue to expand overnight across
east central and southeast NM, with a lower chance of fog
developing across portions of north central NM by sunrise.
Meanwhile, light showers are ongoing across portions of western
and central NM, with a larger area of rain over AZ. This area of
rain will continue to shift into NM overnight and through the day.
As winds strengthen ahead of the approaching Pacific trough this
morning, precipitation will focus over favored southwest flow
upslope regions of the western and northwest mountains with
lighter or minimal rainfall elsewhere. This will change this
afternoon. A Pacific cold front will race from west to east this
afternoon, entering western NM around 1-2pm. A band of heavier
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be found along the front,
so precipitation will fill in at lower elevations. A few storms
will be capable of damaging wind gusts across west central NM
during the afternoon and early evening. However, the threat for
severe weather is greatest from the Rio Grande Valley eastward.
The front and the associated band of precipitation will approach
the Rio Grande Valley around 4-5pm where more instability will
exist and 0-6km bulk shear near 50kt will be found. Thunderstorm
coverage will increase and the potential for severe weather will
also increase. As the line/broken line of storms shifts over
eastern NM, 0-6km bulk shear up to 70kt, 0-3km helicity near
300m^2/s^2, and MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg will be available for
severe thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of all hazards, but
damaging wind gusts with any bowing segment and QLCS-type
tornadoes or tornadoes from supercells embedded in the line are
the main concerns. Damaging wind gusts could exceed 70 mph from
bowing segments. Folks across central and eastern NM should have
more than one way to receive a warning today/tonight.

While the front slides eastward and the potential for severe
weather draws attention this evening and overnight, orographic
lift will continue to bring rain to favored upslope regions across
western NM, so the flooding threat will persist, though the lower
elevation rain will have diminished considerably.

The northern stream low is progged to move over the Four Corners
early Monday morning. A stronger cold front will push into
northwest NM and will reach the Central Mountain Chain around or
shortly after sunrise Monday. Once again, a band of heavier
precipitation (not as heavy as the first) will accompany the
front, though severe weather is not expected. Rather, much cooler
temperatures will allow snow levels to fall. The initial cold
front this aftn/eve will drop snow levels down from 13kft+ to
10-11kft, then this secondary stronger front will drop snow levels
down to 7500-9000ft. This will bring a few to several inches of
snow to the northern mountains, with most of the accumulations
above 9000 feet. 1 to 4 inches will be common, but a few areas
could see around 6 inches. Most of the precipitation will diminish
as it shifts east of the Central Mountain Chain Monday morning.
However, a backdoor cold front will shift into NM during the
afternoon hours Monday, and additional light precipitation will
develop over NE NM. Most precipitation should be rain, but a
light rain/snow mix is possible over Raton Pass. Precipitation
should end Monday evening.

Aside from the rain, snow and severe weather, there is also
concern for gusty winds both today and Monday. H7 winds ahead of
the Pacific trough with be on the order of 40-60kt and while this
momentum should not make it to the surface across western NM
except in cases of thunderstorms, there is better mixing across
portions of northeast NM. Areas along the Raton Ridge could see
gusts upwards of 55 mph this afternoon and continuing through the
overnight hours. Gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out around KLVS
as well, but less confidence exists that these gusts will happen
outside of thunderstorms. For now, will issue a Wind Advisory for
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas including Raton Pass, and the day shift
will monitor for any expansions. Winds will also increase this
evening and overnight behind the initial front, but should stay
sub-advisory criteria for the most part. Winds will increase
further on Monday behind the secondary cold front, particularly
along and east of the Central Mtn Chain from KLVS southward.
Expecting gusts near 50 mph. Confidence is high that Wind
Advisories will be issued for this area in later forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

It seems like winds may stay a little too high Monday night for
another round of fog and low clouds to form, but will have to
watch for this anywhere winds fully diminish. Temperatures will
be chilly Monday night, though not the coldest we`ve seen this
season.

Shortwave ridging remains on tap for Tuesday into Wednesday with
much quieter weather forecast. An upper level low looks to pass
just to the north of NM Wed aftn through Thur morning. This system
may bring light showers to northern NM, but no impacts are
expected. Another backdoor cold front will slide down the plains
Thursday bringing a few light breezes to the area, otherwise quiet
conditions will prevail. Models continue to indicate a trough
will cross NM around the Friday/Saturday timeframe, but most
models suggest this will be mainly a dry passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Conditions will deteriorate through Sunday. Low clouds persist
across east central and southeast areas, including KROW, and
patchy fog will continue to develop. This will persist through at
least the morning hours Sunday. Meanwhile, a large area of rain
over AZ will continue to shift eastward into western NM overnight
and Sunday. Both vsby and cigs will lower to MVFR or IFR. Mountain
obscurations are likely. As a cold front passes from west to east
during the afternoon hours, a band of heavier precipitation will
develop along it, with thunderstorms becoming more numerous as the
line of precipitation reaches the Rio Grande Valley aft 22Z. As
the line continues to shift eastward Sunday night, severe weather,
including hail, damaging wind gusts in excess of 50kt and a few
tornadoes will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7
days. Widespread precipitation is on tap today through Monday
morning with rain and thunderstorms today and tonight, and snow
across the northern mountains and rain at lower elevations Monday
morning. Strong southwest winds will develop areawide today with
gusts between 35 and 55 mph common outside of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms may bring stronger wind gusts as well as a risk for
hail and tornadoes through tonight, especially from the Rio Grande
Valley eastward to the Texas border. On Monday, west to northwest
winds will increase, with gusts near 50 mph along and east of the
Central Mountain Chain from KLVS southward. Elsewhere gusts up to
40 mph will be common. Quieter conditions expected starting
Tuesday, but poor ventilation will be common.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  41  55  34 / 100  80  30   0
Dulce...........................  56  33  49  25 / 100 100  60   0
Cuba............................  57  35  47  30 / 100  90  40   0
Gallup..........................  61  34  53  28 / 100 100   5   0
El Morro........................  59  34  51  27 / 100  90  20   0
Grants..........................  61  36  52  28 / 100  90  20   0
Quemado.........................  60  35  54  30 / 100  90  40   0
Magdalena.......................  64  43  57  36 /  70  80  40   0
Datil...........................  59  39  53  32 /  90  90  40   0
Reserve.........................  62  40  60  31 / 100  90  20   0
Glenwood........................  65  44  64  34 / 100  90  40   0
Chama...........................  52  31  44  25 / 100 100  80  10
Los Alamos......................  56  40  50  35 / 100 100  40   0
Pecos...........................  60  35  51  30 /  90  80  60   0
Cerro/Questa....................  57  34  48  32 / 100 100  70  20
Red River.......................  51  28  40  25 /  90  80  80  30
Angel Fire......................  55  24  44  17 /  60 100  80  20
Taos............................  56  33  50  25 /  90 100  60  10
Mora............................  59  35  49  29 /  70  80  40   5
Espanola........................  64  40  56  32 / 100 100  50   0
Santa Fe........................  59  39  50  34 /  90 100  50   0
Santa Fe Airport................  62  39  53  32 /  90 100  50   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  46  55  39 /  70 100  60   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  45  58  37 /  70  90  50   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  45  60  36 /  70  90  50   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  46  57  39 /  80  90  40   0
Belen...........................  72  47  64  35 /  50  90  60   0
Bernalillo......................  67  45  58  37 /  80  90  50   0
Bosque Farms....................  70  44  62  34 /  60  90  50   0
Corrales........................  66  45  58  37 /  80  90  40   0
Los Lunas.......................  70  45  63  35 /  60  90  50   0
Placitas........................  64  44  54  37 /  80 100  50   0
Rio Rancho......................  67  46  58  39 /  80  90  40   0
Socorro.........................  74  50  66  40 /  50  80  50   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  41  51  32 /  60  80  70   0
Tijeras.........................  64  42  54  34 /  70 100  70   0
Edgewood........................  64  40  54  31 /  50  80  60   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  39  57  28 /  30  80  60   0
Clines Corners..................  62  40  52  33 /  30  80  50   0
Mountainair.....................  64  41  56  32 /  30  80  70   0
Gran Quivira....................  64  42  57  32 /  30  80  70   0
Carrizozo.......................  70  50  62  39 /  40  90  60   0
Ruidoso.........................  65  45  57  35 /  30  90  40   0
Capulin.........................  61  42  54  32 /   5  90  40  40
Raton...........................  66  40  59  32 /  10  80  30  20
Springer........................  67  43  60  33 /  10  70   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  61  41  55  32 /  70  80  20   0
Clayton.........................  66  51  62  42 /   5  80  30  30
Roy.............................  63  46  61  37 /  20  80   5   5
Conchas.........................  70  54  68  43 /  10  80   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  70  52  64  41 /  10  80  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  74  54  71  43 /   5  80   0   5
Clovis..........................  69  50  68  42 /   5  60   5   0
Portales........................  73  58  70  45 /   5  60   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  54  68  44 /  10  70   5   0
Roswell.........................  74  55  75  45 /   5  30   0   0
Picacho.........................  74  53  67  43 /  10  50   0   0
Elk.............................  70  50  63  40 /  20  60   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 5 AM MDT early this morning through Monday
morning for NMZ201>211.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34