396
FXUS65 KABQ 111721 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of
  flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New
  Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air
  quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The large-scale circulation pattern across the Pacific Ocean and
southwestern U.S. will continue evolving over the next 48 hours to
support a monsoon burst pattern later this week. A large cluster
of heavy storms currently propagating northwest thru Sonora will
also become a player this week. 00Z RAOBs showed the H5 ridge
still centered over northwest NM with heights holding steady near
596dm. Surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 40s and lower
50s over a larger portion of central and western NM. 06Z satellite
blended PWATs are holding steady near 0.85" over much of NM as
well. Showers and storms will redevelop over the higher terrain
this afternoon then move erratically west into nearby valleys thru
sunset. These storms are expected to be a little more vigorous
than Monday as 00Z CAMs show greater CAPE with lifted indices
below -3C and more deformation focused along and west of the Cont
Divide. A 30kt upper level speed max moving west over southern NM
within the base of the H5 high will also help to support a more
organized area of storms thru tonight over western NM. HREF and
REFS LPMM QPF along with support from the NAM12 and HRRR QPF show
an area of heavy rain traveling from Catron County north and west
into the Gallup and Zuni areas tonight. Strong storm cells will
be capable of producing >0.75" of rain. Given the recent heatwave
and dry stretch the threat for flash flooding may be limited to a
few locales that pick of the heaviest rainfall.

By Wednesday, the H5 high will begin shifting east as a more well-
defined H5 trough develops along the West Coast. This trough is
partially in response to a 40kt speed max extending northeast from
an area of enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific.
Deeper moisture will surge northward into NM as 700-500mb layer
flow becomes more southerly. PWATs are shown rising above 1" over
much of the region. Steering flow will also become more aligned
with north-south terrain so the threat for locally heavy rainfall
will increase further. There may also be a remnant MCV lingering
somewhere over eastern AZ from the convection tonight, which may
be drawn northward across western NM on Wednesday. 00Z NBM 90th
percentile QPF shows a broad swath of rainfall amounts between 1
and 1.5" along the Cont Divide into Wednesday night. REFS 24-hr
LPMM QPF also shows several pockets >1.25". A Flash Flood Watch
may be required for parts of western NM Wednesday depending on
what happens today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Thursday and Friday may be very active days as the speed max
approaching from the eastern Pacific helps to lift the remnant
convective circulation from Sonora slowly northeastward over NM.
PWATs are shown peaking near 1.2" over the region. As is always the
case with monsoon moisture surges, the coverage and intensity of
convection will depend on how much instability can develop if
widespread cloud cover is present. NBM 48-hour mean QPF shows a
large area between 0.25" and 0.75" which is not too impressive.
NBM 90th percentile values rise above 1.75" in a few areas so the
potential is there for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
QPF values may rise considerably once hi-res model solutions get
a handle on the scenario. Forecast confidence is still moderate
at this time.

Saturday and Sunday also have potential to be active days as the
moisture plume remains squarely over NM with the high east of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
brief MVFR conditions at KSAF in smoke later this evening and
overnight. Iso/sct showers and storms may impact KGUP, KSAF and
KABQ/KAEG this afternoon/evening, favoring strong/erratic wind
gusts over other thunderstorm threats. Otherwise, winds will
mostly be light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Moisture will continue improving over the region today with only
small pockets of minimum humidity below 15%. Winds will be light
outside of thunderstorm outflows. The chances for wetting rainfall
will increase today with locally heavy rainfall amounts >0.50" from
the stronger cells. New wildfires are still possible from lightning
strikes in dry fuels. The coverage of showers and storms is likely
to trend even greater Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall amounts
>1" possible along and west of the central mt chain. A monsoon burst
pattern may impact the region Thursday and Friday as a rich plume of
moisture surges northeast from Mexico. Greater coverage of showers
and storms with rainfall amounts >1" are possible which will help
to moisten fuels and limit new fire starts from lightning. The
risk for flash flooding will also increase on area burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  66  93  63 /   0  20  20  50
Dulce...........................  95  53  89  52 /  30  30  40  50
Cuba............................  92  58  87  57 /  20  40  30  70
Gallup..........................  90  57  86  56 /  30  40  50  60
El Morro........................  85  55  82  54 /  60  50  60  60
Grants..........................  90  57  87  56 /  40  40  60  50
Quemado.........................  87  57  82  57 /  60  40  70  60
Magdalena.......................  90  63  87  61 /  30  30  40  20
Datil...........................  85  57  81  56 /  50  30  60  30
Reserve.........................  92  56  87  56 /  70  20  60  40
Glenwood........................  96  60  92  60 /  60  20  30  40
Chama...........................  87  52  83  50 /  40  30  60  50
Los Alamos......................  90  62  87  61 /  30  30  40  40
Pecos...........................  91  58  89  57 /  40  10  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  88  56  86  55 /  30  30  40  50
Red River.......................  83  48  77  47 /  50  40  60  40
Angel Fire......................  84  43  82  41 /  60  20  50  40
Taos............................  92  56  89  55 /  30  20  30  40
Mora............................  89  55  86  54 /  60  10  40  20
Espanola........................  98  63  95  61 /  20  30  20  50
Santa Fe........................  91  62  89  60 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  94  60  92  59 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  67  96  66 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  68  95  66 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  67  98  65 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  68  96  67 /  20  20  20  20
Belen...........................  99  66  97  65 /   0  20  20  20
Bernalillo...................... 100  66  97  66 /  10  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  99  64  96  63 /   5  20  20  20
Corrales........................ 100  67  97  66 /  10  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  99  65  96  64 /   5  20  20  20
Placitas........................  94  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  98  67  96  66 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro......................... 102  69  98  67 /   5  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  61  89  59 /  20  30  20  20
Tijeras.........................  93  62  90  61 /  20  30  20  20
Edgewood........................  95  59  91  58 /  20  30  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  96  56  93  56 /  20  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  91  60  89  58 /  30  20  20  30
Mountainair.....................  94  59  91  58 /  10  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  92  60  90  59 /  10  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  95  67  93  66 /   5   5  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  87  62  85  60 /  20  10  30  20
Capulin.........................  89  59  89  57 /  30  10   5  20
Raton...........................  93  57  93  56 /  40  10  10  20
Springer........................  95  57  95  57 /  30  10  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  91  57  90  57 /  30  10  20  20
Clayton.........................  97  66  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  92  62  93  61 /   5   5   5  10
Conchas......................... 100  68 101  68 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  96  66  96  67 /   0   5   0  20
Tucumcari....................... 102  70 102  70 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  99  68 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................ 100  69 101  70 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner..................... 100  69 100  69 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell......................... 102  72 102  72 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  97  67  96  67 /   5   0  30  20
Elk.............................  94  64  93  63 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11