640
FXUS65 KABQ 040747
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1247 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Many rivers across northwestern and north central New Mexico
  have peaked and will continue to fall below bankfull stages
  through Wednesday and Thursday.

- Minor winter travel impacts will skirt the Colorado border
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning, favoring Raton Pass.

- Drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the region
  through the rest of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

High clouds will continue to stream across the state tonight ahead
of an approaching upper-level disturbance from the west. Some
clearing is expected across portions of northeastern New Mexico
overnight, which could allow for patchy fog development in valley
locations where recent rainfall has left saturated soils in its
wake. Confidence in fog development is on the low side at this
time as guidance still continues to hint at limited potential for
reduced visibilities.

The aforementioned disturbance will cross into the central
Rockies by the afternoon, bringing with it breezy west-
northwesterly winds across much of central and western New Mexico.
Expect sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph,
particularly across higher terrain.

As the upper low continues its trek eastward during the evening
hours, precipitation will remain confined to northernmost zones. A
combination of modest mid-level moisture, orographic lift, and a
strengthening backdoor front will allow for a brief period of snow
along the Raton Ridge. Light accumulations are possible near Raton
Pass and portions of US-64 into early Thursday morning. Current
guidance suggests most likely amounts of 1-2 inches, with
reasonable locally higher-end amounts of 2-3 inches. Widespread
impacts are not anticipated, but brief visibility restrictions and
slick travel conditions could develop. Elsewhere, precipitation
chances will remain minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

The remainder of the period will be pretty benign as we transition
to generally quieter and drier conditions. A weak upper-level
disturbance may bring in limited moisture and instability by late
Friday into Saturday, leading to low-end rain chances.

Guidance also continues to show disagreement in regards to the
evolution of a possible cutoff low near Baja California. The GFS
seems to be the outlier here, with the broader consensus favoring
a weaker system and predominately dry conditions across the
state. High temperatures will remain within a few degrees of
normal, while lows trend slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Calm winds tonight with isolated patchy fog possible over parts of
the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide and toward
KFMN, and along the northeastern highlands from KRTN to KLVS early
Wednesday morning. The further extent could reach into parts of
the Pecos River Valley toward KROW. However, confidence remains
notably low for this to reach any TAF terminal, and have not
included any category reductions for this. VFR thus remains
forecast to persist thru the current TAF period. Southerly to
southwesterly winds will pick Wednesday afternoon, becoming breezy
in some locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are expected over the next
week. Periods of poor ventilation will be the primary concern
across western and central areas today and Thursday, with more
widespread issues by Friday into the weekend. There is a slight
chance for precipitation across north-central and northeastern New
Mexico late today, but generally dry conditions are expected to
prevail through Thursday. Breezy conditions across northern areas
will gradually subside by Friday. An upper-level system may move
through the region Friday into the early weekend, but
precipitation will be limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  55  37  58 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  57  27  57 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  30  54  33  55 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  27  57  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  26  57  30  57 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  29  56  32  58 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  28  58  30  59 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  35  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  29  64  31  63 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  34  68  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  26  51  29  50 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  33  53  35  53 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  31  56  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  30  52  33  52 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  23  45  24  45 /  30   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  15  49  15  50 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  25  54  25  54 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  28  53  27  55 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  31  59  32  60 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  34  55  34  55 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  31  57  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  39  61  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  36  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  35  63  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  38  61  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  34  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  36  62  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  33  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  36  62  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  34  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  36  60  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  37  61  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  40  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  56  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  34  58  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  32  57  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  59  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  34  53  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  32  57  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  34  57  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  41  62  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  56  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  31  48  29  53 /  40  30   0   0
Raton...........................  31  54  28  56 /  30  10   0   0
Springer........................  31  55  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  32  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  54  34  58 /  10  50   0   0
Roy.............................  36  55  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  62  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  58  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  43  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  45  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  44  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  61  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  47  60  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  42  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  39  62  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...24