876
FXUS65 KABQ 242129
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Abnormally high moisture remains across NM for today and Tuesday
leading to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Moisture
amounts increase to an extreme level on Wednesday and Thursday,
which coupled with a passing trough, will lead to fairly
widespread and heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. The shear
amount of moisture in play is very much a concern for impactful
flooding and flash flooding. Following a brief respite on Friday
another round of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms may occur
this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Radar is starting to light up with scattered storms focused over the
southwest mountains. There`s another area of convection focusing
along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, but that
has been tame thus far. The 12Z sounding at ABQ showed another high
PWAT of 1.13", but an inversion around 500mb and that has so far
done a good job at preventing more widespread convection and heavier
rainfall rates from developing. A broad area of High pressure is
currently centered over southern NM so steering flow is slow from
the west to east. Storms will struggle to maintain their strength
has they head east toward the Rio Grande Valley, but cannot rule out
some late afternoon showers and associated gusty winds. Storms
should quickly wind down this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. The aformentioned ridge will slowly wobble westward
tomorrow as moisture continues to recycle. Some drier air is
expected to infiltrate along the north side of the ridge, leading to
a downtick in precip. coverage across the north, but similar
coverage as today across the west. Hi-res models are showing a few
showers developing over the peaks of the Sacramento mtns early
tomorrow afternoon again, however confidence in heavy enough
rainfall rates to produce flash flooding was not quite high enough
to issue a Flash Flood Watch on this shift. The other concern
tomorrow will be the heat as heights tick upward and help temps rise
a few degrees above today`s highs, particularly across the east
where low 100s are expected. Highs will approach 105 in the Roswell
area so a Heat Advisory may be needed for tomorrow afternoon there.
Moderate heat risk concerns are expected as far west as the Rio
Grande Valley as well, but at least some afternoon clouds and
showers will offer some late afternoon relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

NM has a high chance to see active weather for the mid week through
the weekend and into next week. This will take the form of the Four
Corners high retreating to the east and combining with the Bermuda
Azores high. This seemingly small shift in the pattern will have a
large impact across NM as it draw in extreme amounts of moisture.
This moisture will be sourced from two different areas that will
then combine over portions of NM. The first and largest contributer
to the moisture will be from the SW which is the same moisture feed
that has been causing the present rain showers and thunderstorms.
The second moisture feed will be from the SE which will add a
smaller but still impactful amount of moisture to NM. For Wednesday
this will see PWAT values of 0.75 in to over 1 in across much of NM
which will put it in the top 10% to 2.5% of moisture events for this
time of year. Thursday will see this moisture peak during the
morning hours with PWAT of 1 to 1.5 in which will put in the top 1%
or even max of moisture events for this time of year. This
translates to there being an extreme amount of moisture in the
atmosphere that can fuel any rain shower or thunderstorm. To further
add to the threat a weak short wave will drawn up around the
retreating high pressure moving first across western NM then
northern NM Wednesday through Thursday morning. This feature will
act both as a trigger to start rain showers and thunderstorms and to
provide forcing to enhance them. The generally weak western flow
aloft will also allow the N/S mountains to provide some upslope
forcing that will also help enhance rain showers and thunderstorms.
What this boils down to is that there is a lot of moisture and
plenty of forcing across NM that will allow for ample rain showers
and thunderstorms to form. Currently the western and central
portions of NM will have the highest odds of seeing rain showers and
thunderstorms while the NW and SE have lesser chances. The trend
continues to be to high chances for rain showers and thunderstorms
from the increasing confidence in the moisture and forcing. The
steering flow is generally expected to be on the weaker side with a
general eastward drift which will allow for the rain showers and
thunderstorms to persist over a given spot for a long duration. This
is especially bad as the rain showers and thunderstorms have a
moderate to even high chance of producing copious amounts of
rainfall. There will be an exception to the slower storm motions on
Thursday for northern NM. This area may come more under the
influence of a trough to the NW of the region which will allow the
rain showers and thunderstorms to become more progressive in their
easterly movement. The downside is if this does occurs then these
storms will see better ventilation which will allow them to be
stronger and produce higher rainfall rates. So even with these more
progressive storms the threat of flooding remains intact. So both
Wednesday and Thursday have heightened concern for flooding and flash
flooding with a Flood Watch still looking inevitable at this time.
The ample amount of moisture, rain shower and thunderstorms, and
clouds will have a small silver lining in that they will keep NM on
the cooler side. Highs in the 90s to 100s in the valleys on
Wednesday will fall to 80s and 90s on Thursday.

Friday looks to be a bit of a break in the active weather as the
high pressure retreats further eastward. This will allow a westerly
flow to push out the ample moisture from Wednesday and Thursday from
NM. A little remnant moisture will remain which will allow for a few
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to still form over the
mountains. However these should only produce limited rainfall
amounts. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter
side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s.

Then for the weekend into next week the high has a moderate chance
of pushing back to the west setting up a very similar pattern to
Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern is already showing signs of
pushing in another round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This
batch of abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the
top 10% of moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1
to 1.3 inch range. This moisture seems to be from the Gulf of Mexico
streaming into NM from the SE. The moisture will allow for another
round of rain showers and thunderstorms that could be capable of
producing copious amounts of rainfall. If this event continues to
shape up as it seems it might, then NM may be in store for another
round of flooding to close out June and welcome July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Scattered showers and storms will favor the western and northern
high terrain from 20Z through around 02Z with showers lingering
through the overnight hours. Storms may produce small hail and
gusty outflow winds. VFR cigs will prevail through the TAF
period, although brief MVFR to IFR cigs are possible with heavier
showers and storms, particularly over the western high terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Above normal moisture persists over NM today and will be increasing
to extreme levels by mid week. For today and Tuesday this will cause
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms that generally favor
western and north central NM. The overall storm motion is a weak
easterly drift allowing for the storms to produce small rain foot
prints. There is a small threat for localized flash flooding over
fire areas and burn scars. Then with increasing moisture for
Wednesday and Thursday the amount and intensity of the rain showers
and thunderstorms will increase across all of NM. These rain showers
and thunderstorms have a high chance of having slow generally
eastward drifting storm motions which will allow for long residence
times over a given spot. The exception being in N NM where there
storms will see more progressive eastward motion but be overall more
intense. Regardless of storm motion, these storms will bring
increased threat of flash flooding to all the fire areas and burn
scars on Wednesday and Thursday. If flash flooding does occur on a
fire area it is possible to see life threatening debris flows
similar to what was seen at Ruidoso. A small break in the active
weather may occur for Friday as the moisture moves away. This break
comes to an end for the weekend as another round of abnormally high
moisture moves back across NM. This can cause another round of rain
showers and thunderstorms that can produce very high rainfall. The
silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH will see great
overnight recoveries and remain elevated during the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  96  67  91 /   0   5   0  20
Dulce...........................  51  93  53  88 /   5  10   0  30
Cuba............................  58  91  60  86 /  10  10   5  50
Gallup..........................  57  92  60  88 /  20  20  10  50
El Morro........................  58  86  60  82 /  50  40  20  70
Grants..........................  57  91  60  87 /  30  30  10  70
Quemado.........................  59  87  61  83 /  30  60  30  80
Magdalena.......................  65  89  67  86 /  30  40  20  70
Datil...........................  60  85  61  82 /  30  60  20  80
Reserve.........................  57  92  58  89 /  30  70  30  80
Glenwood........................  69  97  69  94 /  30  70  20  80
Chama...........................  51  86  52  82 /  20  20   5  50
Los Alamos......................  64  89  67  85 /  10  30   5  60
Pecos...........................  59  90  61  85 /  10  30  10  60
Cerro/Questa....................  50  87  52  82 /  20  30  10  60
Red River.......................  49  78  49  74 /  20  30  10  60
Angel Fire......................  45  82  45  77 /  20  30  10  50
Taos............................  55  92  57  87 /   5  20   5  50
Mora............................  54  87  55  82 /  10  30   5  60
Espanola........................  63  97  65  93 /   5  20   5  50
Santa Fe........................  64  90  66  86 /  10  20  10  60
Santa Fe Airport................  63  95  66  90 /  10  20  10  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  96  72  92 /  10  20  10  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  98  72  94 /  10  10  10  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  99  71  96 /  10  10  10  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  40
Belen...........................  67  99  69  96 /  20  10  10  50
Bernalillo......................  69  99  71  95 /  10  10  10  40
Bosque Farms....................  65  99  67  96 /  20  10  10  40
Corrales........................  68  99  70  96 /  10  10  10  40
Los Lunas.......................  65  99  67  96 /  20  10  10  40
Placitas........................  69  95  70  90 /  10  10  10  50
Rio Rancho......................  70  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  40
Socorro.........................  71 101  73  98 /  30  30  20  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  90  65  85 /  10  10  10  50
Tijeras.........................  65  92  67  88 /  10  10  10  50
Edgewood........................  62  93  64  89 /  10  20  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  94  60  90 /  10  20  10  50
Clines Corners..................  60  89  61  85 /  10  20  10  50
Mountainair.....................  63  92  63  88 /  20  20  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  62  92  62  88 /  30  30  20  60
Carrizozo.......................  70  96  71  92 /  20  30  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  62  88  63  84 /  10  50  20  70
Capulin.........................  59  90  60  84 /  20  20   5  50
Raton...........................  59  93  60  88 /  10  20   0  50
Springer........................  59  96  61  90 /  10  20   5  50
Las Vegas.......................  58  88  59  84 /  10  30  10  60
Clayton.........................  66  98  67  91 /  10  20  10  20
Roy.............................  63  94  65  89 /  20  20  10  40
Conchas.........................  69 100  70  96 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  68  97  68  92 /  20  20  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  70 101  69  96 /  10  20  20  20
Clovis..........................  70  99  70  96 /   5  20  30  20
Portales........................  72 100  71  97 /   5  20  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  71 100  72  97 /  10  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  75 105  76 101 /   5  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  67  96  68  93 /  10  50  20  60
Elk.............................  64  94  65  91 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...16