537
FXUS65 KABQ 252025
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
225 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Critical to extreme fire danger is expected through this evening,
rapidly spreading any active fires and additional ones that are
started. Wildfire smoke will impact areas downwind of the Blue 2
fire, including Ruidoso. Winds trend weaker tomorrow in most areas,
but elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still
likely along and east of the central mountain chain. Pleasant
weather is forecast for Memorial Day with slightly above average
temperatures and a light breeze. Temperatures will rise early next
week as winds continue to drop. Moisture will likely return to
eastern NM, potentially generating showers and storms each afternoon
Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

A fast-moving upper level trough moving north of the Four Corners
region today has forced a 110 kt speed max and associated dry slot
over NM. As of 2pm, winds have increased to between 30 and 40 mph in
most areas with localized gusts near 50 mph from Ruidoso to Dunken
and isolated spots of eastern NM. The core of 45 to 55 kt 700-500mb
winds is still on target to cross southern and eastern NM centered
around 6pm. Winds will likely increase further thru late today as
the 12Z HREF shows peak gust timing from 4pm to 7pm with a subtle
west wind shift. No additional changes are needed to the current
Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Blowing dust will increase
as well, especially areas that have not received wetting rainfall in
the past couple weeks. The area around Roswell will be monitored
closely for potential impacts to the Relief Route as winds pick up
from the southwest. Significant downwind smoke impacts are possible
as well across parts of eastern NM based on surface-concentrations
from HRRR and BlueSky.

A subtle west wind shift will occur thru sunset as a weak Pacific
cold front passes thru the region. Winds will diminish slowly in the
wake of the front in most areas. The exception will be along the
central mt chain with westerly downslope winds continue thru the
entire night. A few locales may still see gusts over 35 mph all
night. Winds will then shift from west/northwest Sunday with breezy
conditions focused over the high plains of eastern NM, especially
around Clines Corners. Overall, a much better day is expected
other than lingering smoke impacts from any active fires. Temps
will trend slightly cooler with slightly higher humidity as well
under sunny skies. Lighter winds will take hold Sunday night under
clear skies and seasonably cool temps.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Pleasant late Spring weather is expected for Memorial day with near
to slightly above average temperatures, light winds, and partly
cloudy skies. Confidence continues to increase that ridging will
amplify over the Intermountain West early next week, bringing temps
further above average and also helping Gulf moisture sneak into
eastern NM. Tuesday looks like it could be the first of several days
with dryline convection in eastern NM. A shortwave grazing the area
in combination with LIs as low as -10C and steep mid-level lapse
rates indicate there is the potential for strong storms on Tuesday
afternoon in eastern NM if the dryline pushes far enough west.
Depending on the location and intensity of convection, Albuquerque
could see an east canyon wind Tuesday morning and again Wednesday
morning. Elsewhere, winds should be relatively light through the end
of the week. If ridging sticks around, shower and storm chances will
continue for eastern NM, but if a trough develops over the central
Rockies late week, stronger westerlies could kick the dryline back
to the east.

As far as temperatures go, highs should hover near to as much as 10
degrees above average throughout the week, with the hottest weather
likely Tuesday and Wednesday when Albuquerque could see its first
90F day of the year. Highs in eastern NM will be pushing the mid-90s
each day, although these could drop in future days if the dryline is
expected to setup further west. Higher dewpoints and increased cloud
cover across the east could help to keep overnight lows a few
degrees above average as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Widespread strong southwest to west winds will impact the region
through sunset with localized blowing dust and smoke. Gusts from
35 to 45 kt will be common across central and eastern NM with the
strongest gusts peaking between 4 pm and 6 pm as a weak cold front
moves thru the region. The greatest chance for blowing dust with
lowered cigs/vsbys will be at KROW. Smoke will produce significant
reductions to vsbys immediately downwind of fires thru sunset.
Some smoke may settle into the lower elevations of eastern NM and
the upper RGV overnight with limited vsbys possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY...

Widespread strong winds over the region today will taper off in most
areas between sunset and midnight. Locations along the east slopes
of the central mt chain will likely see breezy west winds continue
for the entire night. West to northwest winds Sunday will remain
breezy along the central mt chain with a focus around the Central
Highlands from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn. There is
a small area of critical fire weather based on wind and humidity but
Haines indices are moderate and RFTI category is subcritical. The
Fire Weather Watch will not be upgraded given lower confidence.

A break to the fire growing pattern will beginning Sunday night. Low
level moisture will begin sloshing over eastern NM next week while a
weak ridge of high pressure develops over the region. Temps will be
much warmer as well with the hottest readings so far this season
over central and western NM. Eastern NM will see increasing chances
for showers and storms, especially Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  77  45  84 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  75  34  80 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  39  73  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  77  39  83 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  73  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  78  39  83 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  38  75  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  41  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  82  39  86 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  85  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  68  35  73 /  10   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  47  73  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  45  74  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  33  65  35  69 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  32  67  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  36  75  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  81  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  45  76  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  81  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  48  85  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  46  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  48  84  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  51  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  88  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  73  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  45  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  78  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  78  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  44  73  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  43  77  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  42  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  42  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  50  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  46  81  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  51  88  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  83  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  88  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  55  89  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  56  91  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  88  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  58  95  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  86  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223>225-227>234-
237>239.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ125.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42