871
FXUS65 KABQ 291939
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Flash flooding is at a heightened risk statewide through
  Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture will continue to bring
  widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms. Have
  multiple ways to receive warnings.

- River flooding is favored today through Friday. Low-lying
  farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers
  may experience minor flooding.

- Thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico may bring increased
  wind gusts and the potential for a tornado today and tonight.
  Gusty winds will increase the potential for downed trees in
  saturated soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile
  vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A widespread flooding threat remains on tap today, with the
potential for life threatening flooding impacts. If you have not
already done so, now is the time to ensure you have multiple ways to
receive warnings, and to remember and follow all flooding safety
tips.

The predecessor rainfall from the remnants of current Hurricane
Polo, and the robust synoptic influence from a centroid of low
pressure over the NV/CA/AZ triple point, continues to spread across
New Mexico this afternoon. This is producing widespread light to
moderate rainfall across portions of south central and southwest NM,
which has been going on through much of the morning hours. Recorded
rainfall amounts from this rain have been between 0.5-1.5",
primarily in Catron and Socorro Counties. This rain is forecast to
continue over this part of the state, as well as expand to the rest
of central, eastern, and northern NM throughout the afternoon and
evening. We`ll go into the meteorological synopsis of the event,
then forecast/impacts for a few trouble spots in the state.

Synopsis: The upper level low is currently producing a stiff 50kt
jet streak across eastern AZ per RAP analysis. Along with this, the
moisture from Hurricane Polo is morphing into this jet streak and
the synoptic forcing from curvature vorticity, slight entrance
and exit region lift, and diffluence aloft are all combining to
produce this widespread rain event. As the low and the remnants
continue to move over NM, this will push the moisture (and thus
the rain) further across the state into eastern and northeast NM.
The primary feature that Polo`s remnants are likely influence is
the development of bands of heavy rain and/or thunderstorms across
eastern NM, as the circulation of Polo sends additional moisture
into the eastern plains. Given the still robust mid level
circulation from Polo, the 6km bulk shear looks to increase up to
40kts across the southeast, with 1km shear getting into the
20-25kt range. Given this shear increase, along with the moist
atmosphere and favorable sounding profiles, a few wet microbursts
upwards of 60mph cannot be ruled out. In addition, while this is a
somewhat low confidence threat, hodographs and higher low-level
shear indicates the threat for a few spin-up, weak tornadoes in
any isolated/transient supercells that develop. Hail threat
remains nearly zero given the moist-adiabadic atmosphere. Across
northern and western NM, these areas will continue to be under the
influence of primarily the low pressure system and the synoptic
forcing accompanying that. Thunderstorms appear less likely across
these areas, but still expecting a few to several embedded storms
to form within the widespread rain. As the low pressure system
merges with Polo, heavy rainfall will continue across eastern NM
throughout tonight, spreading back towards northern and western NM
tomorrow. A TROWAL feature of sorts looks to develop as the
system progresses to the northeast, allowing for additional
rainfall to continue across northern areas throughout the day
Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. All in all, precipitation
looks to continue through the area through at least Wednesday
morning, before becoming lower in coverage throughout the day as
it focuses on portions of northern and western NM.

Eastern NM (east of the central mountain chain): This is the area
with perhaps the highest concern for impacts throughout this
afternoon and evening. With the aforementioned bands of
thunderstorms likely to develop from the remnants of Polo, the
highest rainfall rates are likely to situate over portions of
eastern NM. This becomes concerning given the recent heavy rainfall
and flooding impacts observed there, particularly in the Clovis
area. HREF and REFS LPMM 6hr rainfall amounts are rather eye
popping, with a few bullseyes of +6" across Quay, Curry, and
Roosevelt Counties this evening and overnight. The timing for the
heaviest rainfall looks to begin by 2-3pm, continuing off and on
throughout at least 2-3am, if not later. This potential rainfall
(widespread 1-2.5", locally 3-5") on top of significant rainfall
already received within the past week, raises concern for
potentially life threatening flash flooding. During the afternoon
and evening hours as well, the aforementioned severe storm threat is
another aspect to pay attention to. While lower in confidence than
the flooding threat, a brief tornado or two and damaging wind gusts
cannot be ruled out, primarily between 2-10pm (low confidence on
timing). Folks should have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially overnight.

Northern NM (Tusas Mtns, Sangre de Cristo Mts, Upper RGV): The
heaviest rainfall looks to be just slightly delayed from the rest of
the state given the track of the weather features, but still
expecting widespread moderate to locally heavy rain across the
higher terrain throughout the duration of the event. The primary
change for northern NM is that the Flood Watch was extended in time
through Wednesday evening, given the high likelihood for
precipitation to continue through Wednesday. The surface upslope
flow across the high terrain will help squeeze out as much rainfall
as possible as the rainfall continues through Wednesday. Widespread
1-3" are likely, especially within the mountains, where locally
higher amounts may exceed 5". The primary concern for this area is
flash flooding, river flooding, and the low chance for landslides
should the ground become over-saturated. Remain out of low water
crossings, rivers and streams, and make sure to have ways to receive
warnings in isolated areas.

Rest of NM: Without sounding like a broken record, widespread rain
will continue across the majority of the state, and flash flooding
and river flooding remains the primary concerns. Confidence is not
as high for high rainfall rates to develop west of the central
mountain chain along the I-40 corridor (ABQ, Santa Fe, towards
Gallup), but consistent, steady rain along with what has already
fallen will likely lead to minor urban and arroyo flooding. Folks
should continue to remain out of arroyos as they can become raging
rapids within a matter of seconds. Areas from ABQ to Gallup to
Farmington are likely to see additional showers and storms one
Wednesday from the wrap around precipitation of the system.
Confidence in flooding is lower in these areas given the lower
rainfall rates expected, but will still remain possible given these
areas are likely to be fully saturated.

Please heed all warnings, remain vigilant of your surroundings, and
continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Never drive through
flooded roadways!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

After this system moves out, NM looks to enter a dry spell as
ridging builds over the state. Cannot rule out a few isolated
showers and storms across southeast NM through the weekend and early
next week, but conditions should be rather tranquil in comparison to
our current weather. Given the widespread rainfall expected, a few
overnights and mornings of fog cannot be ruled out across our
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Widespread areas of RA with embedded TS continue across much of
central and western NM as of 18z. MVFR to IFR conditions remain in
areas of rain. Throughout the afternoon, TS with heavier rainfall
rates are likely to develop across eastern NM, primarily after 20z.
Any direct impact to terminals are likely to bring about brief LIFR
to VLIFR conditions, along with strong winds. As RA and TS continue
to encompass the area, MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely to remain
across much of the forecast area, including all TAF sites,
especially after 00z. Low to moderate confidence for a few sites
briefly lower to LIFR ceilings after 03-06z. A few sites may develop
localized fog as well, but confidence is not high enough to place in
TAFs at this time. A few southeast areas, including KROW, are likely
to get back to VFR conditions near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

No fire weather concerns for the next several days. Widespread
rainfall will help with fine fuels, and humidity and wind speeds
will not cause concern for fire growth. For recent burn areas, the
heavy rainfall today and tomorrow may cause flash flooding. Areas
across eastern NM may see another 1-3", with locally higher amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  64  49  72 / 100  90  40   0
Dulce...........................  43  60  38  71 / 100 100  60   0
Cuba............................  47  58  42  66 / 100  90  40   0
Gallup..........................  43  58  41  69 / 100  80  20   0
El Morro........................  40  55  39  67 / 100  70  30   0
Grants..........................  45  60  43  67 / 100  60  30   0
Quemado.........................  43  56  44  67 / 100  70  60   0
Magdalena.......................  47  59  46  64 / 100  70  20   0
Datil...........................  42  56  43  63 / 100  70  30   0
Reserve.........................  45  62  45  75 / 100  60  30   0
Glenwood........................  49  67  48  80 / 100  80  20   0
Chama...........................  44  54  39  63 / 100 100  80   0
Los Alamos......................  50  57  46  64 / 100  90  60   0
Pecos...........................  48  60  42  66 / 100  70  40   5
Cerro/Questa....................  47  57  41  63 / 100 100  90   5
Red River.......................  40  49  35  54 / 100 100 100  10
Angel Fire......................  35  54  31  58 / 100  90  90  10
Taos............................  46  60  40  64 / 100  90  90   0
Mora............................  48  59  43  63 / 100  70  60   5
Espanola........................  51  65  46  71 / 100  90  70   0
Santa Fe........................  50  59  46  65 / 100  80  50   5
Santa Fe Airport................  50  61  45  66 / 100  80  50   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  65  50  70 / 100  70  30   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  64  49  70 / 100  70  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  67  49  71 / 100  70  30   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  65  51  70 / 100  70  30   0
Belen...........................  53  66  49  70 / 100  60  20   0
Bernalillo......................  54  66  50  71 / 100  70  40   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  66  48  71 / 100  60  20   0
Corrales........................  54  66  50  72 / 100  70  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  66  49  71 / 100  60  20   0
Placitas........................  53  63  49  68 / 100  70  40   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  65  50  71 / 100  70  30   0
Socorro.........................  53  69  52  72 / 100  70  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  59  44  63 / 100  70  40   0
Tijeras.........................  51  60  46  66 / 100  70  40   0
Edgewood........................  49  61  44  65 / 100  60  30   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  64  43  67 / 100  60  20   0
Clines Corners..................  49  60  43  63 / 100  50  20   0
Mountainair.....................  49  61  43  65 / 100  70  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  60  44  64 / 100  70  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  64  49  69 / 100  60  30   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  60  44  63 / 100  40  30  10
Capulin.........................  51  58  43  56 / 100  90  90  60
Raton...........................  51  61  44  62 / 100  90  80  40
Springer........................  52  64  47  65 / 100  90  80   5
Las Vegas.......................  50  61  45  63 / 100  60  50   0
Clayton.........................  58  69  51  64 / 100  80  60  30
Roy.............................  55  66  49  66 / 100  60  40   5
Conchas.........................  60  74  54  74 / 100  30  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  58  69  52  70 / 100  30  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  77  54  74 / 100  20  30  10
Clovis..........................  61  77  53  74 / 100  10   5   5
Portales........................  63  79  53  75 / 100   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  76  53  75 / 100  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  61  77  53  77 / 100   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  56  73  50  73 / 100   0   5   5
Elk.............................  52  70  47  72 / 100  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201-202-204>209-212-
218>226-229>241.

Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NMZ203-210-211-213>217-
227-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77