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FXUS65 KABQ 171126 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  through today, with near record high temperatures. Major heat
  risk may impact the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley and
  southeast plains.

- Breezy west winds and very low humidity in areas with dry fuels
  will create high fire danger in portions of western and central
  New Mexico this afternoon. Smoke from fires in southwestern New
  Mexico may reduce air quality.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase late weekend and into
  early next week, mainly across central and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The ridge of high pressure bringing the year`s hottest temperatures
to the Land of Enchantment thus far breaks down today. Good news for
folks through western, central, and northern NM today as highs
retreat a few degrees from the 100s and 90s. But a few degrees won`t
be enough to entirely end the moderate risk of heat induced
illnesses for many of those locations. Increasing westerly flow
aloft will also bring breezy to locally windy conditions this
afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph commonplace. Downslope
compressional warming along and east of the central mountain chain
will also keep high temperatures near their hottest of the year thus
far. Have maintained 100s to 110F at Roswell due to this effect that
the NBM is not capturing well, instead opting for the numerical MOS
guidance instead. As such, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in
effect for the Chaves County Plains.

A shortwave trough passing north of the area from CO over KS will
send down a cold front backing thru eastern NM this evening and
tonight. A few isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of the
front over Colfax and Union Counties late today and this evening
will be possible. The bigger and more widespread sensible weather
change will be increased moisture and cooler temperatures invading
eastern NM for Wednesday. High temperatures retreat 5F to 15F across
eastern NM back into the 80s to 90s. Nineties remain for lower
elevation areas of the Rio Grande Valley westward where the front
will not have reached. The additional moisture behind the front may
yield a few isolated showers or virga showers along the central
mountain chain Wednesday afternoon, beneath the next building ridge
of high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The 500mb high continues to shift slowly over the state Thursday,
once again driving up temperatures and mitigating the effects of a
backdoor cold front from Wednesday. Temperatures climb into the high
90s and low 100s Thursday and Friday, especially in the lower
elevations in central and eastern NM. These temperatures likely
necessitate more Heat Advisories, mainly across western and central
NM, with slightly lower confidence for eastern areas. HeatRisk
products highlight much of the state in minor to moderate risk of
heat related impacts, with isolated major impacts possible in the
RGV. Folks across the state should continue to take the proper
precautions with these hot temperatures continuing. Isolated virga
showers are possible Thursday afternoon across the central mountain
chain, with forecast soundings showing modest instability combined
with large inverted-V shapes. A dry lightning strike or two cannot
be ruled out, but confidence is low in the occurrence.

The pattern begins to shift as the 500mb high moves eastward late
Friday into the weekend. The positioning of the high with an
approaching trough from the PNW begins to funnel moisture northward
into the region beginning Saturday and picking up by Sunday into
Monday. Models and ensembles are in great agreement of the pattern,
with only subtle differences, leading to high confidence in this
scenario. PWATs are likely to rise above 1" across eastern NM,
paving a pathway for more efficient rainfall rates with any
thunderstorms that develop. This increases the potential of flash
flooding, especially with any repeated rounds of storms across
one area. Concerning severe storms, current bulk shear forecasts
are not impressive, but decent instability could work to produce a
strong or severe storm, especially given increased ascent from an
approaching trough. Smaller scale details will become clearer as
we get into the later part of the week and into the weekend, but a
wetter pattern appears in store. The CPC 6-10 Day precipitation
outlook covers this thinking well in terms of areal coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Calm VFR this morning, followed by increased westerlies by late
morning near 18Z all areas. LLWS is lessening this hour outside of
a few isolated pockets along the Continental Divide and central
mountain chain. Peak gusts this afternoon will be 25 to 35 kts
before winds taper off and calm again this evening b/w 00Z to
03Z. A cold front will bring a northerly to northeasterly wind
shift thru eastern NM tonight into Wednesday morning reaching
KROW near 06Z or just thereafter. A modest east canyon wind at
KABQ was also included. Any convection over northeastern NM could
enhance and change the timing of this frontal boundary advancing
thru eastern NM tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON...

Increasing dry westerly winds, gusting 25 to 35 mph peaking to 40
mph, combining with 6 to 16 hours of single-digit humidity continues
the threat of critical fire weather conditions where the Red Flag
Warning remains in effect across western NM into the middle Rio
Grande Valley. Portions of the Central Highlands stretching eastward
into the plains will also see these atmospheric conditions, however
fuels remain far less susceptible given the recent greenup there.
The Sandia/Manzano Mountains however are seeing more receptive fuels
based on ERC`s being reported nearing the 90th percentile there, and
the multiple indexes from the NIFC and USGS suggesting high fire
danger here. Will go ahead and add this area to the Red Flag Warning
for today.

Critical fire weather conditions abate this evening as winds
subside, and as a cold front backs thru eastern NM to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain tonight into Wednesday morning.
These lower temperatures and a healthy influx of higher moisture
steadily creeps westward thru the end of the week beneath a building
ridge of high pressure. This ridge will build further as it migrates
eastward over the Southern Great Plains this weekend allowing a tap
of monsoonal moisture to push northward into the region. Increased
precipitation chances and daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms
look to result heading into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  42  89  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  52  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  91  45  92  48 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  87  50  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  91  47  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  90  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  92  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  90  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  98  49  98  52 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................ 101  55 102  58 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  80  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  86  58  85  60 /   0   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  87  53  85  56 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  84  50  84  53 /   0   0   5   0
Red River.......................  73  39  75  45 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  78  32  78  40 /   0   0   5   0
Taos............................  87  45  86  49 /   0   0   5   0
Mora............................  84  46  81  48 /   0   0  10   0
Espanola........................  94  53  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  88  57  87  60 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  91  53  90  60 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  62  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  60  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  63  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Belen........................... 101  58  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  99  60  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  57  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  99  60  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas....................... 100  58  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  94  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  98  61  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 103  66  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  91  57  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  91  52  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  50  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  88  53  84  55 /   0   0   5   0
Mountainair.....................  91  53  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  92  53  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  96  61  94  64 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  88  56  84  57 /   0   0  10   0
Capulin.........................  87  48  81  54 /  30  10   5   0
Raton...........................  91  48  85  53 /  20  10   5   0
Springer........................  92  50  87  54 /   5   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  89  49  83  53 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  96  56  84  59 /  20  10   0   0
Roy.............................  92  53  84  58 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas......................... 102  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  99  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari....................... 103  60  90  61 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis.......................... 103  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................ 104  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 103  61  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 110  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  99  61  89  62 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  97  58  88  59 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ101-105-106-109-124.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24