239
FXUS65 KABQ 251108 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
508 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The coverage of showers and storms will decrease again today with
even warmer temperatures than Monday. Areas from near Albuquerque
south to Socorro will warm into the upper 90s and low 100s while
folks around Roswell reach 105 degrees. Any storms that do develop
today will still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
Another surge of moisture will move into the area Wednesday and
Thursday. The threat for flash flooding will increase again,
especially around wildfire burn scars. Drier air will attempt to
move into the region Friday along with warmer temperatures. Yet
another wave of moisture is expected by Saturday and Sunday with
increasing coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall. A
few storms this week may also become strong with hail and high
winds possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A relative down day is expected today as a drier and more stable
airmass near the Four Corners slides east/southeast across more of
northern and central NM. Rich moisture will remain in place south of
the I-40 corridor but greater subsidence with a 595dm H5 high and
700mb temps near 20C will limit convective potential. Any storms
that do form will still be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with slow storm motion. A Flash Flood Watch will not be
issued today given the relative downtick expected. Max temps will
trend a few degrees warmer and a Heat Advisory was added to Chaves
County with highs near 105F.

Hi-res CAMs shows an area of convection developing along the Caprock
region late this afternoon as a weak upper wave slides southeast off
the Front Range. There is enough shear and instability to allow a
few storms to become strong. The latest SPC Convective Outlook has
outlined a `Marginal Risk` area within Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt
counties. Storms may persist over parts of eastern NM thru midnight
followed by slowly eroding mid level cloud cover.

The H5 high will drift east Wednesday in the wake of the upper wave
while a more pronounced H7 high center forms over north-central TX.
This will allow deeper return flow to develop over eastern NM with
east/southeast winds advecting rich moisture into more of NM. PWATs
increase to near 1.3" over central NM and near 1.7" over eastern
NM. Strong afternoon heating with enhanced surface convergence and
lift along the central mt chain will allow numerous slow-moving
storms to fire up by early afternoon. This activity will drift
into nearby valleys and highlands with torrential rain possible.
A Flash Flood Watch will be needed for burn scars and perhaps
other surrounding parts of central NM Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The H5 high center will drift south into southern NM and northern
Mexico on Thursday as another weak upper level wave slides over the
ridge. Rich moisture with above normal PWATs will remain in place
over NM. Steering flow will strengthen and become more W/SW to E/NE.
Strong afternoon heating with greater shear and instability may lead
to greater coverage of storms with hail, strong winds, and locally
heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed again for
parts of the area.

Another downtick is expected Friday as drier air spreads east from
AZ while the upper ridge shifts farther east into TX and the lower
MS River Valley. PWATs decrease closer to normal for northern and
western NM with greater stability over more of the region. A few
storms are still possible mainly across the southern high terrain
and eastern plains.

Extended models are in fairly good agreement forcing a strong,
moist backdoor cold front southward into eastern NM Friday night
and Saturday. This will set the stage for another period of storms
with locally heavy rainfall over the region thru the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Mid level cloud cover and sprinkles lingering south of I-40 early
this morning will clear after sunrise. The coverage of SHRA/TS
will be less today with the focus mainly near the southern high
terrain. Slow-moving activity will still be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. A cluster of storms may
develop between KTCC and KCVN by 21Z then move southward with
hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall thru sunset. Otherwise,
max temps will be very hot today with density altitude concerns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days.
Daily rounds of showers and storms are expected, with peak coverage
and rainfall intensity on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Slow-moving storms with torrential rainfall will elevate the risk
for burn scar flash flooding and subsequent debris flows. The wet
phase of the summer monsoon is also expected to continue into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  66  95  65 /   0   0  30  60
Dulce...........................  92  52  92  53 /   5  10  40  50
Cuba............................  91  60  91  58 /  10  10  60  70
Gallup..........................  92  59  92  57 /  20  20  60  60
El Morro........................  85  60  86  58 /  40  20  80  70
Grants..........................  92  59  90  57 /  30  20  80  70
Quemado.........................  84  61  88  60 /  50  50  90  70
Magdalena.......................  90  67  91  65 /  50  20  80  70
Datil...........................  85  62  87  61 /  60  30  90  60
Reserve.........................  90  58  94  57 /  70  40  90  60
Glenwood........................  96  70  98  68 /  70  40  80  50
Chama...........................  84  53  86  51 /  10  10  50  60
Los Alamos......................  90  68  89  63 /  20  10  70  70
Pecos...........................  92  62  89  59 /  20  20  70  70
Cerro/Questa....................  86  54  86  51 /  10  10  70  60
Red River.......................  77  51  76  50 /  20  10  70  60
Angel Fire......................  83  47  81  48 /  20  10  60  50
Taos............................  92  58  90  57 /  10  10  60  50
Mora............................  87  56  85  54 /  20  20  70  50
Espanola........................  98  65  97  64 /  10  10  60  60
Santa Fe........................  91  67  91  63 /  20  20  60  70
Santa Fe Airport................  95  65  95  63 /  20  10  60  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  72  97  69 /  10  10  60  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  71  98  68 /  10  10  50  60
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  71 101  68 /  10  10  40  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  72  99  69 /  10  10  50  60
Belen........................... 100  68 101  67 /  10  10  50  70
Bernalillo...................... 100  70 100  68 /  10  10  50  60
Bosque Farms....................  99  67 100  65 /  10  10  50  60
Corrales........................ 100  70 100  68 /  10  10  50  60
Los Lunas.......................  99  67 101  66 /  10  10  50  60
Placitas........................  96  70  95  66 /  10  10  50  60
Rio Rancho...................... 100  71  99  68 /  10  10  50  60
Socorro......................... 101  74 102  70 /  30  20  60  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  66  89  62 /  10  10  60  60
Tijeras.........................  96  67  94  64 /  10  10  60  60
Edgewood........................  95  63  94  61 /  10  10  60  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  60  94  59 /  20  10  60  60
Clines Corners..................  86  61  88  59 /  20  20  50  60
Mountainair.....................  93  63  93  62 /  20  20  60  70
Gran Quivira....................  93  63  93  60 /  30  30  70  70
Carrizozo.......................  97  71  96  68 /  30  30  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  89  64  88  61 /  60  20  70  60
Capulin.........................  90  61  88  61 /  10  10  60  40
Raton...........................  94  61  92  61 /  10  10  50  30
Springer........................  97  61  95  62 /  20  10  60  40
Las Vegas.......................  87  60  87  60 /  30  20  60  60
Clayton.........................  99  67  95  67 /  10  10  20  30
Roy.............................  94  65  92  65 /  20  10  50  50
Conchas......................... 100  69 100  69 /  20  20  30  60
Santa Rosa......................  97  68  96  68 /  20  20  30  60
Tucumcari....................... 102  68 100  68 /  20  20  10  40
Clovis.......................... 100  69  99  69 /  20  30  20  40
Portales........................ 101  69 100  70 /  20  30  10  40
Fort Sumner..................... 101  71 101  70 /  10  20  20  50
Roswell......................... 105  76 104  74 /  20  20  20  40
Picacho.........................  97  68  97  67 /  50  20  60  50
Elk.............................  94  65  94  63 /  60  20  70  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42