683
FXUS65 KABQ 141145 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- An impressive surge of rich monsoon moisture this week will
  elevate the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water
  crossings.

- Multiple days of heavy rainfall this week may allow water to
  flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks, streams, and tributaries
  to mainstem rivers that have dried up this summer. Dirt roads
  will become muddy. Large areas of standing water may form in
  low-lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rich monsoon moisture returned to the entire area the past 24 hrs as
the upper high shifted east ahead of a broad upper level trough over
the northwest CONUS. Satellite-derived wind and PWAT imagery shows a
deep fetch of south/southwest flow advecting PWATs above 1.1" toward
the I-40 corridor with values above 1.4" over southwest NM. A large
area of showers and storms associated with a warm-core subtropical
wave over southwest NM will lift north/northeast today. Showers will
be ongoing at sunrise in many areas along and west of the central mt
chain. There are rather stark differences between near-term CAMs on
how convection unfolds today. Nonetheless, models indicate storms
that do form will be capable of heavy rainfall despite timing and
placement uncertainty. The 00Z HREF LPMM QPF has footprints >1"
in many storms with a few areas picking up >1.75". Storms will
have efficient rainfall rates and localized flash flooding may
occur. WPC expanded the `Slight Risk` of excessive rainfall to
much of central and western NM today. A couple strong storms are
also possible over northwest NM where bulk shear values exceed
25KT with CAPE >1000 J/kg. Stark CAM differences continue tonight
with how many storms linger over the area. The latest HRRR has
numerous storms persisting all night over northwest NM while the
RRFS tapers off storms by late evening.

Another warm-core subtropical wave is shown moving slowly northeast
from southeast AZ into southwest NM by sunrise Tuesday. This wave is
drawn northward into central NM Tuesday afternoon with PWATs rising
above 1.2" at KABQ. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is still shown
sliding southwest into northeast NM thru the afternoon. More robust
showers and storms are expected in many areas. HREF LPMM QPF values
rise above 1.75" in several storms. The 00Z RRFS shows somewhat
organized storm clusters moving east/northeast across eastern NM
Tuesday evening then riding over the surface front as a broad area
of rain with embedded storms thru late Tuesday night. WPC has
also expanded the `Slight Risk` of excessive rainfall to more of
the forecast area, including northeast NM. A couple more strong
storms are possible with greater shear and instability noted over
northern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

By Wednesday, an impressive H5 low will slide south into NorCal
while the upper level ridge begins expanding westward across the
lower MS River Valley. This will tighten up the monsoon plume and
direct deep south to north steering flow over NM. After two days of
heavy rainfall in some areas, the risk for flash flooding will be
exacerbated by widespread showers and storms with rainfall rates
exceeding >2 "/hr. The 00Z RRFS shows storms latching on to north/
south oriented terrain and dumping rainfall amounts >2.5". Even
the median NBM 12-hr QPF has amounts >1.5" over broad areas with
90th %tile amounts above 2". WPC has added a large `Moderate Risk`
area to parts of northern and central NM so the potential for a
Flood Watch is rising for parts of the region, especially Ruidoso.

The rich moisture plume persists Thursday with more south/north
steering flow and a `Slight Risk` of excessive rainfall over the
entire area. Widespread cloud cover from Wednesday night may limit
the amount of instability available so confidence does decrease by
this time. Any showers and storms that do form will still be very
efficient rainmakers. The upper level low over CA begins to open up
and lift east across the Great Basin Friday. This may assist forcing
for more showers and storms over the area with additional heavy
rainfall possible. Widespread total QPF of 1 to 2" is likely by
Friday night with localized amounts >3" possible. Even the 00Z LREF
probability of >2" is already above 40% for most high terrain areas
with a 20-30% chance of >3" for the San Juan/Tusas Mts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Confidence on the timing and placement of SHRA/TS is low to
moderate today. A batch of scattered SHRA and isolated TS in the
RGV before sunrise is expected to dissipate thru 10AM. A second
area of SHRA/TS may form over east-central AZ this morning then
move northeast across northwest NM thru early this afternoon. The
next batch of stronger storms may form near the Cont Divide early
this afternoon then shift northeast into the RGV and central mt
chain thru sunset. Some of this activity may produce brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys with heavy rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts >35KT.
Scattered SHRA and isolated TS may continue all night in central
and western NM but confidence is low. There is a low chance for
MVFR cigs around the northern and western NM by sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A persistent tap of monsoon moisture will impact NM this week as the
upper level high shifts east and a series of upper level lows enter
the western U.S. Numerous to widespread showers and storms with
heavy rainfall will occur thru Friday, especially for northern,
western, and central NM. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2"
will be common by the end of the week with locally heavier amounts
greater than 3". Fire suppression efforts will get the upper hand
on any existing incidents and the risk of new fire starts will be
much lower. The risk of flash flooding will also increase around
burn scars with each passing day of heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will cool slightly below normal by mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  57  82  58 /  70  50  30  60
Dulce...........................  76  48  79  48 /  90  60  50  80
Cuba............................  76  52  75  52 /  90  50  40  60
Gallup..........................  78  51  79  51 /  60  50  40  60
El Morro........................  75  49  76  50 /  70  50  50  60
Grants..........................  79  52  79  52 /  70  50  70  60
Quemado.........................  77  53  77  53 /  70  60  90  60
Magdalena.......................  79  57  77  57 /  80  60  70  70
Datil...........................  76  53  75  53 /  80  60  70  60
Reserve.........................  81  55  82  55 /  50  50  70  60
Glenwood........................  86  60  86  60 /  40  60  60  70
Chama...........................  70  46  73  48 /  90  50  50  80
Los Alamos......................  78  56  76  55 /  70  50  70  70
Pecos...........................  79  53  78  53 /  50  40  60  70
Cerro/Questa....................  75  49  75  51 /  70  40  50  60
Red River.......................  71  44  70  44 /  70  40  70  60
Angel Fire......................  72  42  71  41 /  50  40  90  70
Taos............................  79  50  79  49 /  70  50  50  70
Mora............................  78  51  75  51 /  30  30  80  70
Espanola........................  83  56  83  55 /  80  50  50  70
Santa Fe........................  80  56  79  56 /  60  50  50  70
Santa Fe Airport................  83  55  81  55 /  60  50  40  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  61  82  61 /  80  60  20  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  61  84  60 /  80  60  20  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  61  86  60 /  80  60  20  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  61  84  61 /  80  60  20  70
Belen...........................  87  61  85  61 /  70  60  20  70
Bernalillo......................  87  60  85  59 /  80  60  30  70
Bosque Farms....................  87  61  86  59 /  80  60  20  70
Corrales........................  87  60  85  60 /  80  60  30  70
Los Lunas.......................  87  61  86  60 /  80  60  20  70
Placitas........................  83  59  82  59 /  80  60  40  70
Rio Rancho......................  86  60  84  59 /  80  60  30  70
Socorro.........................  88  63  86  63 /  70  60  40  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  55  76  55 /  70  60  40  70
Tijeras.........................  82  58  80  57 /  70  60  40  70
Edgewood........................  83  55  81  53 /  60  50  60  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  54  82  53 /  50  40  60  70
Clines Corners..................  81  55  78  53 /  50  40  60  70
Mountainair.....................  81  56  80  55 /  60  50  50  70
Gran Quivira....................  82  57  80  56 /  50  50  40  70
Carrizozo.......................  85  62  83  60 /  30  50  40  60
Ruidoso.........................  79  58  77  57 /  40  40  70  60
Capulin.........................  83  55  74  53 /  20  20  40  80
Raton...........................  86  54  79  52 /  20  10  70  80
Springer........................  88  55  82  54 /  20  20  70  80
Las Vegas.......................  82  54  78  53 /  20  30  80  70
Clayton.........................  91  64  80  58 /  20  20  10  70
Roy.............................  87  59  81  57 /  20  30  50  80
Conchas.........................  95  65  89  62 /  40  30  60  80
Santa Rosa......................  90  64  87  61 /  60  50  70  80
Tucumcari.......................  95  67  90  63 /  20  30  50  90
Clovis..........................  94  66  92  63 /  20  40  60  90
Portales........................  95  67  93  64 /  20  40  50  90
Fort Sumner.....................  94  66  92  63 /  40  40  30  80
Roswell.........................  98  68  96  67 /  30  40  40  70
Picacho.........................  89  62  88  61 /  70  40  80  60
Elk.............................  86  60  84  58 /  40  30  80  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42