889
FXUS65 KABQ 211939
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1239 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Low chance of fog and freezing fog across central, northern, and
  eastern NM Saturday morning.

- Another storm system will bring a round of widespread lower
  elevation rain and mountain snow Saturday night through Sunday
  into early Monday morning. A few inches of accumulating snow
  will again be favored above 8,500 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

What`s left of yesterday`s storm system is now over KS/MO with
wraparound northerly flow pushing into northeastern NM where some
low clouds are lingering b/w Raton and Clayton. More widespread low
clouds persist over the slopes of the northern mountains which will
be slow to erode this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery also
shows fresh snow atop the western and northern mountain peaks from
yesterday`s storm system, a pleasant sight to see. Meanwhile GOES WV
satellite imagery shows the next and last in the line of storm
systems spinning down the CA coastline, well defined with two
distinct vort-loves on the western and eastern peripheries of the
554dm H5 low center. A steady increase in high cirrus will encroach
across western and central NM this afternoon associated with the
east side vort-lobe, spreading over eastern NM tonight. Meanwhile, a
weak surface front pushing southward thru eastern NM will help bring
low clouds and some patchy fog there late tonight into early
Saturday morning. A few northern valley locations may also see some
fog or freezing fog Saturday morning as well.

Saturday sees the low become more symmetrical with the drier
westerly lobe wrapping to the southern periphery of the H5 low as
it moves over the northern Baja Peninsula. High temperatures
rebound further over NM Saturday as WAA fills in across much of
the state. Surface high pressure will also slide east over OK/TX
bringing southerly return flow into southeastern NM. The increase
in surface moisture highlighted by Td`s rising into the 40s across
southeastern NM underlying favorable divergent flow aloft will
yield the onset and subsequent expansion of showers with embedded
thunderstorms through south-central and southeastern NM Sunday
morning. Surface southeasterly upslope flow further north along
the Sandia/Manzano`s and Sangre de Cristo Mts will yield numerous
showers with snow levels still favoring 8,000 to 9,000 feet. An
east canyon wind into eastern ABQ thru the Tijeras Canyon will
also likely result Saturday night into Sunday morning. While more
convective shower and thunderstorm activity over eastern NM moves
into TX Sunday afternoon, a continuation of valley rain and
mountain showers will persist over the western and northern
mountains as the core of the H5 low moves over the Four Corners
region. Numerical model guidance continues to advertise relatively
warm H7 temperatures of roughly -2C to -4C which will limit snow
to liquid ratios. As such, forecast snow totals look to be
remarkable similar to the most recent winter system over the
northern mountains of 2 to 8 inches. Liquid equivalents will range
from the 0.25" to 1.00" over the western and northern mountains
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Snow will persist the longest over the western slopes of the
northern mountains Sunday night into Monday morning with northwest
flow aloft continuing orographically driving snow there on the back
side of the H5 low. Temperatures rebound Monday with breezy
northwesterly flow filling in behind the exiting H5 low. Forecast
confidence is low regarding wind speeds Monday afternoon as
numerical model confidence differs on the evolution of an upper
level system over MT/WY. This will impact the N-S pressure gradient
across the state and how strong the westerly to northwesterly winds
will be.

Tuesday sees a cold front back southward thru eastern NM from the
aforementioned upper level system crossing the northern Great
Plains. Temperatures fall back 5F to 15F across eastern NM behind
the cold front. Dry weather persists Wednesday and thru the end of
the Thanksgiving Day Holiday and Friday. Long range ensemble
guidance shows a return to another active weather pattern Sunday
into Monday after Thanksgiving with a more amplified polar jet over
the northern Pacific. This will set the stage for the next storm
system to enter the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Conditions have cleared over many areas this morning, with the
exception of west-central and northern NM. Broken MVFR continues in
these areas, including KFMN-KGUP-KSAF and likely will be off-and-on
thru the next few hours. There is a fair chance this doesn`t clear
this afternoon and lingers into the evening and overnight period
tonight. High cirrus will also steadily spread west to east over the
state tonight. Meanwhile, a weak frontal push into eastern NM will
bring colder temperatures there increasing the chance for IFR/MVFR
ceilings to develop over portions of the eastern plains. Confidence
for this is marginal at TAF terminals and have only started off with
a generic scattered cloud level mention at KLVS-KTCC-KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

No fire weather concerns today and Saturday as temperatures rebound.
Widespread valley rain and mountain snow spread over the state
Saturday night through Sunday night. Dry conditions return Monday
with strengthening northwesterly winds Monday afternoon, where gusty
winds of 35 to 45 mph could reach the highlands along the central
mountain chain. Temperatures and humidity will remain well
outside critical fire weather thresholds however. Otherwise, dry
conditions persist through the Thanksgiving Holiday week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  33  59  38  49 /   0   0  50  70
Dulce...........................  21  58  27  47 /   0   0  40  90
Cuba............................  27  56  33  46 /   0   0  60  80
Gallup..........................  25  58  30  45 /   0   0  70  60
El Morro........................  28  55  32  44 /   0   0  80  70
Grants..........................  26  56  32  49 /   0   0  80  70
Quemado.........................  28  58  33  46 /   0   0  80  50
Magdalena.......................  32  56  37  50 /   0   0  80  50
Datil...........................  28  55  33  46 /   0   0  80  40
Reserve.........................  24  63  30  50 /   0   5  90  50
Glenwood........................  27  67  34  55 /   0   5  90  50
Chama...........................  20  52  27  43 /   0   0  40  90
Los Alamos......................  33  53  35  44 /   0   0  70  90
Pecos...........................  28  57  33  46 /   0   0  70  90
Cerro/Questa....................  26  52  30  43 /   0   0  30  90
Red River.......................  20  44  25  36 /   0   0  30  90
Angel Fire......................  13  52  20  43 /   0   0  40  90
Taos............................  22  56  29  47 /   0   0  40  90
Mora............................  25  57  30  47 /   0   0  50  90
Espanola........................  25  60  32  52 /   0   0  60  90
Santa Fe........................  31  57  37  47 /   0   0  70  90
Santa Fe Airport................  29  58  36  50 /   0   0  70  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  62  43  53 /   0   0  70  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  63  42  55 /   0   0  70  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  33  64  41  57 /   0   0  70  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  62  42  55 /   0   0  70  60
Belen...........................  28  62  38  57 /   0   0  70  60
Bernalillo......................  34  64  41  56 /   0   0  70  70
Bosque Farms....................  28  63  37  57 /   0   0  70  60
Corrales........................  33  64  41  57 /   0   0  70  70
Los Lunas.......................  30  63  38  57 /   0   0  70  60
Placitas........................  35  60  40  51 /   0   0  70  80
Rio Rancho......................  35  63  41  55 /   0   0  70  70
Socorro.........................  33  64  40  60 /   0   0  70  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  57  36  47 /   0   0  70  80
Tijeras.........................  32  58  38  49 /   0   0  70  80
Edgewood........................  28  58  35  50 /   0   0  70  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  22  60  33  52 /   0   0  60  80
Clines Corners..................  28  55  33  47 /   0   0  60  80
Mountainair.....................  28  59  35  50 /   0   0  70  70
Gran Quivira....................  28  60  36  50 /   0   0  70  70
Carrizozo.......................  33  63  40  54 /   0   0  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  32  57  37  49 /   0   0  60  60
Capulin.........................  27  57  29  45 /   0   0  10  90
Raton...........................  26  59  28  47 /   0   0  20  80
Springer........................  26  60  29  51 /   0   0  20  80
Las Vegas.......................  28  57  32  46 /   0   0  50  90
Clayton.........................  33  62  35  50 /   0   0  10  90
Roy.............................  29  58  33  50 /   0   0  30  90
Conchas.........................  31  63  35  57 /   0   0  40  90
Santa Rosa......................  31  58  36  56 /   0   0  40  80
Tucumcari.......................  31  64  36  58 /   0   0  30  90
Clovis..........................  34  64  40  59 /   0   0  40  90
Portales........................  33  65  40  62 /   0   0  40  90
Fort Sumner.....................  31  61  38  60 /   0   0  50  80
Roswell.........................  34  63  44  64 /   0   0  50  50
Picacho.........................  33  62  39  62 /   0   0  50  50
Elk.............................  29  61  35  59 /   0   0  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24