793
FXUS65 KABQ 261941
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1241 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

- A backdoor front on Saturday will drop lows into the teens and
  20s overnight.

- Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, mainly from late
  Sunday through Monday evening, should stay updated with the
  latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter
  travel routes or plans, due to potential for a storm system to
  bring winter travel impacts across the Desert Southwest,
  including New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1227 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Lee side surface troughing will develop over the northeast highlands
this afternoon, resulting in some brisk west to southwest winds with
gusts up to 35 mph along the I-40 corridor in east-central New
Mexico. Wind speeds will then become more light and variable
throughout the region as pressure gradients weaken. Temperatures for
today will be about average for this time of year, with highs in the
upper 50s. Low temperatures tonight will be a little bit warmer
than yesterday, but still near normal for late November.

Thankfully, Thanksgiving day looks to be a gorgeous autumn day
across the Land of Enchantment. Pressure heights rise slightly as
brief upper level ridging slides across the Desert Southwest on
Thursday. This will lead to some slightly warmer temperatures across
the region, with highs climbing up to the low 60s for valley areas
in the lower half of the state and for parts of southeastern New
Mexico. The one thing that may limit temperatures from climbing even
higher will be the steady stream of high clouds over the area. Cloud
cover will increase throughout the afternoon and into the evening,
which will also serve to keep temperatures a little bit warmer
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Pressure heights begin to flatten on Friday and zonal flow returns
as a shortwave trough begins to dig south into the central Rockies.
This disturbance will introduce some breezier winds for areas along
and east of the central mountain chain. Some 35 kt 700 mb winds
should be able to mix down to the surface during the afternoon,
creating stronger gusts over east-central New Mexico. Downsloping
winds will also help warm up the environment and raise highs into
the mid 60s across the eastern plains, 5 to 10 degrees above
average for this time of year. The main trough axis swings through
the region overnight, so the strongest 700 mb winds of 40 to 50
kts will most likely not be able to mix down to surface over the
central highlands, but it will still be quite windy over the
mountain tops. Westerly winds diminish as the trough kicks out
east on Saturday, but a potent backdoor cold front then begins to
fill in throughout eastern New Mexico during the afternoon and
usher in some 20 to 25 mph northeast winds. The front will reach
the central mountain chain overnight and introduce an easterly gap
wind for the Rio Grande valley.

Many New Mexicans in the eastern plains will wake up to some of the
coldest temperatures so far this season on Sunday. Cold air
advection will drop lows into the low twenties and upper teens,
particularly along the northeast corner of the state. High
temperatures on Sunday will be between 5 to 18 degrees below average
for areas east of the central mountain chain. Some northeast
locations such as Clayton may hover at near freezing temperatures
for most of the day. Meanwhile, western and central parts of the
state will be near average for late November.

The next thing to look out for is the evolution of a winter system
that will pass through the intermountain west on Monday. Due to
recent trends in guidance, there is now better confidence in a more
progressive and quicker moving storm system. The AI-GFS was the
first to catch on, and now all the other deterministic global models
and most of the long range ensembles are showing a positively tilted
trough with a more northerly track. This solution would mean that
the majority of the snowfall will be confined to the northern
mountains, with less precipitation overall for the region.
However, it will still be quite cold. Temperatures look to be 5 to
15 degrees below average throughout the region on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites throughout the period. Low
clouds have been eroding in southeast New Mexico throughout the
morning, with conditions now clear at KROW. Few to scattered high
cirrus will stream across the airspace through the evening hours at
most sites. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon at KROW and KTCC,
with gusts around 25 kts. Winds will then diminish overnight,
becoming light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected through the period. While
there will be some breezy and drier conditions this weekend, with
ERCs below the 50th percentile, fire risk is low. However, these
breezier conditions will contribute to some better ventilation
rates along the eastern plains on Friday and Saturday. A storm
system early next week looks to bring some colder temperatures
areawide and precipitation for mainly the northern half of the
state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  17  56  20  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  24  54  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  22  57  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  29  58  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  22  59  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  27  63  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  33  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  29  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  26  66  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  29  69  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  52  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  52  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  28  54  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  27  52  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  22  46  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  15  51  17  49 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  19  54  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  27  54  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  24  58  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  55  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  58  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  60  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  24  59  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  30  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  24  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  60  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  27  59  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  56  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  59  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  32  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  54  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  55  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  26  56  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  21  57  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  27  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  27  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  27  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  34  62  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  34  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  24  49  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  22  52  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  22  54  23  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  27  52  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  52  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  27  57  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  56  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  27  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  30  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  28  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  27  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  31  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  34  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  32  63  32  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25