553
FXUS65 KABQ 021850
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1250 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Today through Thursday isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms favoring western, central, and northern New Mexico
  each afternoon. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy
  rainfall can occur with stronger storms.

- Minor to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding through
  Thursday.

- Monsoon moisture increases substantially Friday and Saturday.
  Coverage of moderate to heavy rainfall should increase during
  this time with isolated thunderstorms. The flash flood potential
  will depend on rain rate and that could be limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Upper level ridge over Utah and the Four Corners will be the main
synoptic weather feature to influence the short term forecast.
This ridge is pretty messy with a weak low over SoCal moving NW
around the ridge. Moisture over New Mexico ranges from 0.5 to 0.9
inches of PWAT which is on the low side. It is just enough for
convection to form in the higher terrain each of the next couple
of days but limited enough that the heavy rainfall/flood potential
is low. Overall pattern does not change too much through the end
of the week so the coverage of storms should remain the same.

Typical hazards/impacts expected from storms the next couple of
days look to be lightning, gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy
rainfall. Should a strong storm hit the right spot like a burn
scar area then flooding will be an issue but again limited
coverage of storms. Storm motions will be erratic given the
vicinity of the ridge to NM with stronger NW flow aloft to the NE
of the state through the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Let`s just rip the band aid off. Will TS Lorena in the E PAC come
to NM? No. Will moisture from TS Lorena come to NM? Better
question. There is a chance. But this part of the forecast for
Friday, Saturday and Sunday really does hinge on 3 aspects. First
it will hinge on the strength of the ridge which is tied to the
strength of the trough over the Great Lakes. Second, it will
hinge on the track of TS Lorena which will be tied to how well
developed Lorena becomes. Right now it is barely a TS and still
developing. Many models are going to still struggle to properly
resolve the core and therefore the track forecast. Third the
intensity of Lorena which right now only a strong TS or Cat 1 as
it moves towards the Baja Peninsula. GFS ensemble still has some
large spread in tracks as does the ECMWF ensemble with holds onto
a stronger ridge and then keeps the westerlies from influencing
Lorena. Their are some ensemble members of both model suites that
take the track of Lorena to the NE by Thursday into Friday with
others that have a weaker system to the west. What does this mean
for New Mexico weather? Just low confidence and monitoring.

If we look at a reasonable worst case scenario (best case
depending on your perspective) remnants of TS Lorena bring above
normal moisture (and not by much) into the region Friday through
Sunday. And if we get this kind of moisture it will probably
result in widespread mid/high level overcast cloud cover with
clusters of moderate rainfall maybe heavy at times. More sensitive
areas like the South Fork burn scar or Trout burn scare could see
some higher flows from moderate rainfall but the impacts from
this kind of rainfall should be pretty small. The trick here is
that instability will be limited with the above normal moisture
and rain rates will not be the kind to produce those 1 inch an
hour rates or more. As it is now it looks like most areas could
average a good 0.5 to 1 inches of rain over the 3 day period. This
moisture will also likely hold max temps down a a good 5 to 10
degrees below normal and have made those adjustments to the
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Isolated thunderstorm activity and scattered showers are expected
this afternoon but confidence is low with any of the activity
impacting terminals except for maybe KLVS. Most changes to the
TAFs were to reduce the mention of SHRA taking on the philosophy
of amending should there look to be something to develop and
potentially impact a terminal. Confidence overall is pretty low.
While there will likely be storm outflow boundaries that could
impact terminals, the wind gusts are not expected to be much more
than 20-25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

No areas of elevated or critical fire weather conditions are
forecast for the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  88  60  87 /   0   5   0  20
Dulce...........................  44  85  46  85 /  10  10   0  30
Cuba............................  53  83  53  82 /  20  10   5  40
Gallup..........................  53  84  52  82 /  10  20  10  40
El Morro........................  53  79  53  79 /  10  40  30  60
Grants..........................  53  84  53  83 /  10  40  20  50
Quemado.........................  53  81  54  81 /   5  30  20  30
Magdalena.......................  57  81  58  82 /   0  20  10  20
Datil...........................  52  79  53  79 /   0  30  10  30
Reserve.........................  51  87  53  86 /   5  20  10  30
Glenwood........................  56  90  58  89 /   5  10   5  20
Chama...........................  45  79  46  79 /  20  20   0  40
Los Alamos......................  56  79  57  79 /  20  10   0  40
Pecos...........................  51  81  53  81 /  20  10   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  50  79  52  80 /  30   5   0  20
Red River.......................  42  70  43  71 /  40  10   0  20
Angel Fire......................  36  74  36  75 /  30  10   0  20
Taos............................  48  83  50  83 /  30   5   0  20
Mora............................  46  78  48  78 /  30  10   0  20
Espanola........................  55  87  55  87 /  20  10   0  20
Santa Fe........................  56  82  58  82 /  20  10   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  55  85  56  85 /  10   5   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  88  66  88 /  10  10   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  90  63  90 /   5   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  92  63  92 /   5   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  90  64  90 /  10   5   5  10
Belen...........................  58  92  60  91 /   5  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  61  91  63  91 /  10   5   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  58  91  59  91 /   5   5   0  10
Corrales........................  62  92  63  91 /  10   5   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  60  91  60  91 /   5   5   5  10
Placitas........................  60  87  62  87 /  10   5   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  62  90  63  90 /  10   5   5  20
Socorro.........................  62  92  63  92 /   0  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  83  57  83 /  10  10   5  20
Tijeras.........................  57  84  59  84 /  10  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  52  85  54  85 /  10   5   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  87  52  86 /  10   5   0  10
Clines Corners..................  54  81  55  81 /  10   5   0  10
Mountainair.....................  53  84  56  85 /   5  10   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  55  83  56  84 /   5  10   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  86  63  86 /   5  10   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  53  77  57  78 /   0  20   0  10
Capulin.........................  50  79  49  81 /  20   5   0   5
Raton...........................  48  83  49  84 /  30   5   0   5
Springer........................  49  85  50  85 /  40   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  51  81  51  82 /  30  10   0  20
Clayton.........................  58  88  56  90 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  53  84  53  85 /  40  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  60  90  58  91 /  30   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  88  57  89 /  20  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  57  88  57  90 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  92  62  94 /   5   0   5   0
Portales........................  61  92  62  95 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  60  90  60  92 /  10   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  94  63  96 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  88  61  90 /   0  10   0   0
Elk.............................  53  85  58  85 /   0  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39