681
FXUS65 KABQ 101131 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico,
  especially the Rio Grande Valley and Four Corners area. Record
  high temperatures are expected today over central and western
  New Mexico.

- Limited afternoon thunderstorm activity today slowly increases
  through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to parts
  of central and western New Mexico mid to late week.

- Smoke from wildfires across the western United States may
  continue to impact air quality across parts of New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

00Z RAOBs showed the H5 ridge centered near Gallup, NM with heights
lowering closer to 596dm. Surface dewpoints have increased into the
upper 30s and 40s across northern and central NM with a few pockets
in the low 50s in the Rio Grande Valley. 06Z satellite blended PWATs
have trended above 0.85" over much of NM. A slight uptick in storm
coverage is expected today with slightly deeper moisture, improving
CAPE, and increasing mid level deformation/stretching focused along
the central mt chain. Rainfall amounts will trend a little heavier
as REFS/HREF LPMM QPF shows values >0.50" from some of the stronger
cells. Storm motions will still drift erratically south and west
off the high terrain into nearby valleys and lowlands thru the
late afternoon and evening. Strong downburst wind gusts >45mph are
still expected with the stronger cells and more wildfire starts
are possible from lightning strikes in dry fuels. Confidence on
max temps is lower than recent days but readings were close enough
to issue one more round of Heat Advisories for parts of central
and western NM.

Convection from today will help to deepen moisture a little more for
Tuesday with another uptick in storm coverage expected. There isn`t
a great deal of change noted with the overall pattern as a 596dm H5
high center remains centered over north-central NM. Steering flow
will still be a slow and erratic drift toward the south and west.
The 00Z CAMs showed even greater instability over the region with
QPF potential rising above 0.75" from the stronger cells. The 00Z
NAM12 indicated showers and storms may persist well into Tuesday
night as a subtle 700mb speed max or MCV feature shifts south thru
west-central NM. Max temps Tuesday will trend a couple degrees
cooler but still be very hot for mid August (5-10F above normal).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A well-defined pattern shift begins by Wednesday as changes in
the atmospheric circulation across the Pacific Ocean begins to
impact the monsoon plume over the southwest CONUS. An upper level
trough will deepen along the west coast and help to force the
monsoon high east into TX. 700-500mb layer flow will become more
southerly over AZ and NM and allow rich monsoon moisture to surge
north into the area. Models have been consistent and in good
agreement that a convective disturbance will lift slowly north
into the monsoon plume from Wednesday thru Friday. Chances are
increasing for more widespread showers and storms over the area
with forecast PWATs supportive of heavy rainfall for parts of the
area. This rich monsoon pattern may continue Saturday and Sunday
with an upper level trough persisting along the U.S. West Coast.
Forecast confidence is increasing but still guarded given the
overall spotty nature of precip this summer and persistent heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

SHRA/TS will develop over the higher terrain of northern and
western NM between 12pm and 3pm then move erratically south and
west into nearby lowlands thru sunset. Strong outflow wind gusts
>40KT, brief rain, and frequent lightning strikes will occur with
the stronger cells. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA are likely
to persist west of the Rio Grande Valley thru 3am. Smoke from the
Frijoles Fire northeast of KSAF may filter into the area on storm
outflows with brief vsby reductions later today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Very hot and dry conditions will continue today with minimum
humidity falling below 15% over parts of northern and western NM.
Winds will remain light outside of strong thunderstorm outflows and
wetting rainfall footprints will still be small. The main concern is
wildfire starts from lightning strikes in dry fuels. The coverage of
showers and storms is likely to trend greater beginning Tuesday with
larger footprints of heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. An
active monsoon pattern may continue thru the end of the week as high
pressure shifts east of NM. Storm motion will also increase and be
more south/southwest to north/northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  66  97  65 /   0   5   5  20
Dulce...........................  96  54  95  55 /   5  10  40  40
Cuba............................  94  60  92  59 /   0  20  20  50
Gallup..........................  92  60  89  59 /  20  30  20  40
El Morro........................  88  57  85  56 /  50  30  50  40
Grants..........................  93  60  90  59 /  30  30  40  40
Quemado.........................  89  59  86  58 /  40  40  50  40
Magdalena.......................  91  64  90  63 /  10  20  40  30
Datil...........................  87  59  85  57 /  40  20  50  30
Reserve.........................  95  57  91  57 /  30  20  50  30
Glenwood........................  99  62  96  62 /  40  20  50  30
Chama...........................  90  54  87  54 /  10  10  50  40
Los Alamos......................  91  64  89  64 /  30  30  30  40
Pecos...........................  93  59  91  58 /  20  20  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  90  57  88  57 /  10  30  20  40
Red River.......................  86  45  84  47 /  20  20  50  40
Angel Fire......................  86  43  84  43 /  20  30  60  40
Taos............................  95  58  92  59 /  10  30  20  30
Mora............................  90  55  88  55 /  30  20  50  30
Espanola........................  99  64  97  65 /  10  30  10  30
Santa Fe........................  94  63  91  61 /  10  20  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  96  62  93  61 /  10  20  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  69  95  67 /   5  20  10  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  70  97  69 /   5  20  10  50
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  69 100  68 /   0  20  10  50
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  70  98  68 /   5  20  10  50
Belen........................... 100  68  99  67 /   0  10  10  40
Bernalillo...................... 102  68  99  67 /   5  20  10  50
Bosque Farms.................... 100  66  99  65 /   0  20  10  40
Corrales........................ 102  69 100  67 /   5  20  10  50
Los Lunas....................... 100  66  99  65 /   0  20  10  40
Placitas........................  96  68  94  66 /   0  20  10  50
Rio Rancho...................... 101  69  99  68 /   5  20  10  50
Socorro......................... 101  71 101  70 /   0  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  63  89  61 /   5  20  20  50
Tijeras.........................  94  64  92  63 /  10  20  20  50
Edgewood........................  96  61  93  60 /  10  20  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  97  58  95  56 /  10  30  30  50
Clines Corners..................  93  61  91  60 /  10  20  30  40
Mountainair.....................  94  62  93  60 /   5  20  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  92  62  92  60 /   0  10  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  68  94  68 /  20   5   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  88  61  88  62 /  10   0  20   5
Capulin.........................  90  59  89  59 /  20  10  30  20
Raton...........................  94  57  93  58 /  20  10  30  20
Springer........................  97  58  95  58 /  10  10  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  93  58  91  58 /  20  20  40  30
Clayton.........................  98  67  97  66 /   0   5   0   5
Roy.............................  94  64  92  63 /   0  10   5  10
Conchas......................... 101  70 101  69 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  97  67  97  67 /   0   5   5  10
Tucumcari....................... 101  69 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  99  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  99  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  99  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 100  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  96  66  97  67 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  94  62  95  63 /   5   0  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-217-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42