Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
951 FXUS65 KABQ 031853 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1253 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - There is a marginal to slight risk of a strong to potentially severe thunderstorms developing in extreme eastern NM this afternoon and early evening, quickly moving east into TX. - Elevated fire weather conditions will be favored over western and central New Mexico this afternoon and again Monday. Expect very poor overnight humidity recoveries in western NM tonight. - There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat risk impacts, particularly Tuesday through at least Thursday, which may cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach near record to record highs. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The monsoon high remains over southern AZ and NM with much drier air rounding its northern periphery into much of northern and central NM. Boundary layer conditions are drying out, highlighted by Td`s falling into the 20s along the AZ border, and 30s within the Rio Grande Valley. Higher boundary layer moisture hanging on east of the central mountain chain will steadily be mixed out this afternoon. A sharpening moisture gradient across eastern NM underlying modest northwest flow aloft over northeastern NM will yield a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms hugging the NM/TX border. The remaining higher boundary layer moisture yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and underlying 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear continues to support a marginal to slight risk of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Any updraft thunderstorm will favor development near the NM and TX/OK borders or along the northeastern NM/CO border before quickly moving east of the state line this afternoon and early evening. Outflow from this convection will aid in a westerly push of boundary layer moisture back toward the central mountain chain tonight into Monday morning. The NAM and some hi-res CAMs depict this boundary reaching all the way thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and ABQ for a brief period Monday morning. As was observed this morning, some low stratus development over portions of the east- central and northeastern plains, and northeast highlands will be possible Monday morning. While the monsoon high repositions itself nearly over central NM Monday, this low level moisture will try to yield some cumulus build- ups along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon. Little to any actual precipitation is expected from this activity, but have included general 10% PoPs in this area. High temperatures across eastern NM are also a bit stunted despite the high building over the area thanks to this increased moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The heat takes hold Tuesday and thru the rest of the work week as the monsoon high builds to 600dm by Wednesday. High temperatures through lower elevation areas of NM will range from the upper 90s to low 100s. Moderate to major heat impacts will be felt for any individual without adequate cooling and hydration. Numerical model guidance also continue to show a putrid slug of monsoon moisture rounding the western periphery of the high into AZ and western NM. Isolated to scattered virga showers will favor areas along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon, with greater coverage and stray isolated dry thunderstorms each afternoon Wednesday thru Friday. Some of this activity will advance over the northern mountains Wednesday thru Friday as well. The high begins to breakdown by next weekend while favoring a westward shift. This will allow a chance for a frontal boundary to back into eastern NM and/or some Gulf moisture to work its way back into eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 VFR prevails nearly all areas this afternoon and evening. The exception will be near the NM border with OK and TX where a few isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are favored to develop before quickly moving east of the state line. While there is a very low chance of a direct impact from a thunderstorm at a terminal, did include a PROB30 at KTCC to address any outflow gusts reaching the terminal there. This activity will help kick back a low level layer of moisture west to the central mountain chain tonight. Have included mention of an east canyon wind reaching KSAF and KABQ, alongside some potential for low IFR/MVFR stratus developing at KLVS, KTCC, and elsewhere across portions of eastern NM early Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Elevated fire weather will be present across the area today and Monday, focusing over the Four Corners region where minimum humidity will fall into the single-digits each day for 6 to 16 hours alongside breezy afternoon westerlies. While also drying out this afternoon, good to excellent recoveries will remain present Monday morning where low level moisture will push back west to the central mountain chain. Thereafter, the main monsoon high repositions itself more squarely over NM Tuesday and thru the rest of the work week. Some modest moisture will bring virga showers and an isolated dry thunderstorm favoring western NM each afternoon threatening stray and erratic gusty winds and dry lightning. Little to no precipitation is forecast across the state during the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 46 91 44 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 90 55 93 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 48 92 49 93 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 52 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 51 93 53 95 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 54 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 60 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 56 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 52 96 52 98 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 58 100 57 102 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 48 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 54 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 79 38 82 / 0 10 0 0 Taos............................ 50 88 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 84 51 86 / 0 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 56 94 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 88 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 94 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 96 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 99 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 97 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 98 60 101 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 62 97 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 98 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 62 98 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 98 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 62 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 97 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 64 99 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 92 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 85 56 88 / 0 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 54 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 89 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 59 87 59 87 / 0 10 0 5 Capulin......................... 53 81 56 87 / 10 10 0 0 Raton........................... 54 87 53 91 / 5 10 0 0 Springer........................ 55 89 54 93 / 10 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 86 54 90 / 5 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 59 87 62 95 / 20 5 0 0 Roy............................. 57 84 59 90 / 10 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 63 92 64 99 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 60 89 62 96 / 0 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 89 62 95 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 63 94 65 99 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 63 96 65 100 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 62 94 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 99 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 94 62 97 / 0 10 0 0 Elk............................. 61 92 61 95 / 0 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24