805
FXUS65 KABQ 171751
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas today,
  with near record high temperatures. Major heat risk may impact
  the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains.

- Breezy west winds and very low humidity in areas with dry fuels
  will create high fire danger in portions of western and central
  New Mexico this afternoon. Smoke from fires in southwestern New
  Mexico may reduce air quality.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase late weekend and into
  early next week across central and eastern New Mexico,
  increasing the threat of flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Winds have begun to increase around the region as the boundary layer
deepens and stronger winds aloft begin mixing down to the sfc. The
strongest winds will likely focus over north-central NM where 500mb
winds are in the 30 to 40 kt range. That`s realistically the strongest
gusts that will occur today even though we could mix higher than
500mb in some areas. The downsloping winds will heat up the eastern
plains this afternoon, surging temperatures into the triple digits.
The breeze will make it feel like a blowdryer and will increase the
risk of heat-related illness for everyone.

The backdoor front across far northeastern NM has stalled out and
will be the initiation point for storms this afternoon. While there
is sufficient low-level moisture, dry air in the mid and upper-levels
will inhibit storm development. Most hi-res models are picking up on
a singular supercell that could skirt Clayton this evening. Strong
outflow winds will be the main concern thanks to steep low-level
lapse rates. The backdoor front will continue its journey south and
west overnight, creating gusty north winds in its wake, It will
eventually move through the gaps of the central mountain chain
around midnight, creating a low-end east wind event in east
Albuquerque. Ridging builds in from the west on Wednesday and the
subsidence on the northeast side will limit any convection from
developing despite the higher dewpoints across the east in the wake
of the overnight frontal passage. Upslope flow on the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo mountains could spark a few gusty showers, but
coverage and impacts will be limited. Temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler than today in most areas, bringing high temps down to
around a few degrees within seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Models are in good agreement that the center of the H5 ridge will be
directly overhead Thursday, making it another hot day areawide.
Lower elevation locations such as Farmington and Albuquerque will be
pushing 100F, with higher elevation areas such as Las Vegas and Taos
close to 90F. Some moisture sneaking up underneath the ridge could
once again spark a few showers over mountain peaks, with little to
no impacts expected. By Friday, the ridge shifts eastward, combining
with the Bermuda high to place New Mexico under southerly flow. This
in combination with a trough over the Pacific Northwest will draw
moisture into New Mexico, with gradually increasing precipitation
chances each afternoon Saturday through Tuesday of next week. This
pattern looks eerily similar to last year`s June flash flooding set-
up. Deformation over New Mexico will help to generate training
storms with efficient rainfall rates. The main difference from last
year`s set-up though is the lack of a sub-tropical disturbance.
PWATs will likely be 150-250% of normal per the ENS ensemble mean,
but this isn`t quite as anomalous as last year. Nonetheless, we will
be closely monitoring this first monsoonal burst of the year closely
given that the flash flood risk will be elevated and not just for
the burn scars.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Breezy to gusty west winds prevail across the region today, except
across the northeast where winds have already turned northerly
with the passage of a backdoor front. This front will stall this
afternoon, eventually surging south and westward after 00Z. This
will create gusty west north to northeast winds at eastern sites
and a low-end gap wind that will affect KABQ. Due to the lack of
convection to aid its progress, there is only a very low chance
(<10%) that an AWW will be needed. There is also a low chance of
IFR cigs developing in the eastern plains and highlands adjacent
to the central mountain chain, but very few models are showing
much of anything developing so no low cigs were added to any
TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING...

Ample solar heating has allowed mixing to begin across central and
northern New Mexico, with winds expected to gradually increase
through the afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. The strongest
winds will focus over northern areas, but sustained winds of 20kts
will be commonplace throughout the region. Single digit relative
humidities are already present in most areas and these values will
only drop through the afternoon, bottoming out at less than 5% in
portions of south-central and western NM. Humidity will be slow to
increase and values below 10% will persist through much of the night
in central and western areas. A backdoor front surges south and
westward tonight, replenishing moisture in eastern areas. Dry and
hot weather with mostly light winds will be the story Wednesday
through Friday, with elevated to near critical conditions
approaching from the west Friday and Saturday due to strengthening
southerly winds out ahead of a Great Basin trough. A plume of
moisture sets up over central and eastern NM early next week,
increasing storm chances. Western NM will likely be on the fringes
of this moisture, but models have notably trended wetter for this
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  92  56  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  88  45  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  51  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  45  92  48  96 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  50  89  54  91 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  47  92  51  96 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  52  90  56  93 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  60  90  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  54  89  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  48  97  52  99 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  53  99  57 103 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  44  82  46  86 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  59  85  60  88 /   0   5   0  10
Pecos...........................  51  84  56  87 /   0  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  48  83  53  87 /   0   5   0   5
Red River.......................  41  74  45  78 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  34  78  39  81 /   0  10   0  10
Taos............................  47  86  49  90 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  45  80  48  84 /   0  10   0  10
Espanola........................  55  92  57  96 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  56  87  61  90 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  55  89  60  93 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  67  98 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  95  65  99 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  97  64 101 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  65  99 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  61  97  62 101 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  60  96  63 101 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  60  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  61  96  64 101 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  60  96  62 100 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  62  92  65  96 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  63  95  64 100 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  67  99  67 102 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  57  89  60  93 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  53  89  55  91 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  89  53  92 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  53  84  56  86 /   0   5   0  10
Mountainair.....................  54  89  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  53  89  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  61  93  64  94 /   0   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  84  57  85 /   0  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  48  80  54  85 /  20  10   0  10
Raton...........................  47  84  52  90 /  20  10   0  10
Springer........................  48  86  54  90 /  10  10   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  49  83  53  87 /   0  10   0  10
Clayton.........................  56  85  59  92 /  20   5   0   0
Roy.............................  53  83  57  88 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  59  90  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  89  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  89  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  90  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  61  91  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  93  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  90  62  93 /   0   5   0  10
Elk.............................  58  88  58  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106-
109-124.

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16