548
FXUS65 KABQ 160811
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- There is a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding from the
  central mountain chain eastward Sunday. A Flash Flood Watch is
  in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through early next week.

- Temperatures trend hotter again mid-next week, with major heat
  risk in the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the
  southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A moist boundary has pushed southward to I-40 this morning and will
continue slowly trekking south and westward overnight, eventually
pushing up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain by
the time of convective initiation this afternoon. In the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere, ridging will shift and amplify
overhead. This will have the effect of decreasing storm motions as
they move off the terrain. The slower and more erratic motion will
elevate the flash flood concern, with the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
of greatest concern given the influx of moisture overnight and
modest moist upslope flow. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch was issued
for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar where hi-res models have
been consistently showing rainfall amounts of 1-2" within the
central and southern portions of the burn scar the favored areas.
Storms will also develop along a sfc boundary in the eastern plains
and there could be training of storms with heavy rainfall rates in a
moist environment with PWATs upwards of 1.5". Storms that develop
over the Sandia/Manzano Mountains will send a boundary westward into
the Rio Grande Valley and this will generate briefly strong east
canyon wind gusts. There could be enough instability to re-generate
storms in the Albuquerque metro during the evening hours, but there
is low confidence in this happening.

Storm outflows will push sfc moisture westward Sunday evening and
overnight, with PWATs rising ticking up a tenth or two in central
and western NM. Monday`s storm coverage will expand westward as a
result with a robust crop of storms over the Continental Divide and
the northern mountains. Storm motions will be slow and erratic as
high pressure centers itself overhead. Outflow boundaries will move
into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening, but
these may struggle to generate additional convection given the
modest instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Moisture will be scoured out Tuesday, with PWATs dropping down to
near to slightly below normal. This combined with less favorable
thermodynamics and increasing subsidence aloft will translate to a
notable downtick in storms Tuesday afternoon, with only isolated
activity favoring the Southwest and South Central Mountains.

The monsoon ridge will then shift westward into The Great Basin
Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave riding over the ridge will exit
into the High Plains Wednesday afternoon, sending a backdoor front
into eastern NM and replenishing moisture once again. The uptick
Thursday (and potentially Friday) will be relatively short-lived as
drier air sneaks back in from the southeast.

The other story mid to late week will be the heat. Temperatures will
generally run 5 to 10 degrees above normal, which will create
pockets of major heat risk in lower elevation areas, including
Albuquerque and Roswell. Model consensus shows the ridge centering
itself over the southern Rockies late week, with weak easterly
steering flow over most of New Mexico. The monsoon high is progged
to slowly shift eastward late week into the weekend, with easterly
flow becoming more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A
few storms linger across far eastern NM and this activity should
wrap up by 09Z. A backdoor front draped across the northeast
quarter of the state will continue pushing south and west through
the night, with only light winds in its wake.

Scattered showers and storms will develop along and east of the
Rio Grande Valley Saturday afternoon. Storm motions will be slow
towards the east, but erratic motions are likely at times. Outflow
winds through the gaps of the central mtn chain are likely to
impact KABQ and KSAF during the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will favor areas along and east
of the central mountain chain, with the highest chances for wetting
rainfall over the southern and eastern slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Storms become more widespread on Monday as outflow
boundaries push more moisture into central and western New Mexico.

The monsoon high will shift into northern New Mexico Monday,
eventually shifting westward into Arizona by mid-week. Drier
conditions are likely Tuesday, with a wetter trend
Wednesday/Thursday as another backdoor front replenishes moisture
for at least eastern areas. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer
next week, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal in most areas
Tuesday onward. This will translate to lower afternoon humidity,
bottoming out at 15 to 25% in most areas each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  65  93  65 /   0   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  90  49  89  48 /   0   5  20  10
Cuba............................  88  58  86  57 /   0  20  40  20
Gallup..........................  88  57  88  57 /   5   5  30  10
El Morro........................  84  56  83  55 /  10  20  60  20
Grants..........................  88  59  86  56 /  10  20  60  20
Quemado.........................  85  58  84  57 /  30  20  60  20
Magdalena.......................  86  62  84  62 /  20  40  60  20
Datil...........................  82  58  81  56 /  20  30  80  30
Reserve.........................  91  55  90  55 /  20  20  80  30
Glenwood........................  96  62  94  60 /  20  20  70  40
Chama...........................  84  51  82  49 /   0   5  40  20
Los Alamos......................  87  61  83  61 /  20  30  60  30
Pecos...........................  84  56  82  55 /  70  40  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  84  55  83  55 /  10  10  50  20
Red River.......................  73  45  72  45 /  30  20  60  20
Angel Fire......................  78  37  78  37 /  40  30  70  20
Taos............................  88  53  85  52 /  10  10  40  20
Mora............................  79  52  79  50 /  70  40  70  30
Espanola........................  93  61  90  59 /  20  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  86  61  84  61 /  40  30  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  90  59  87  58 /  30  30  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  66  92  67 /  30  30  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  65  92  65 /  20  30  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  64  94  64 /  20  30  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  92  66 /  10  30  30  20
Belen...........................  95  63  93  62 /  10  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  96  66  93  65 /  20  30  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  95  62  92  61 /  20  30  20  20
Corrales........................  96  66  93  66 /  20  30  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  95  64  92  63 /  10  30  30  20
Placitas........................  91  64  89  64 /  30  30  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  95  66  92  66 /  20  30  30  20
Socorro.........................  96  67  94  67 /  20  30  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  58  85  59 /  40  40  70  30
Tijeras.........................  88  60  86  61 /  40  30  60  30
Edgewood........................  88  55  86  55 /  50  40  60  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  54  88  53 /  50  40  40  30
Clines Corners..................  83  55  82  57 /  60  50  50  20
Mountainair.....................  88  56  86  56 /  50  30  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  86  57  85  58 /  60  30  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  90  62  88  63 /  60  20  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  81  57  81  57 /  40  20  50  10
Capulin.........................  78  54  80  55 /  70  60  50  20
Raton...........................  82  53  84  52 /  70  40  50  20
Springer........................  85  54  86  53 /  60  40  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  55  82  54 /  70  40  60  20
Clayton.........................  84  60  88  63 /  30  60  20  20
Roy.............................  83  58  84  58 /  40  50  30  20
Conchas.........................  91  62  93  63 /  40  50  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  88  61  89  61 /  50  60  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  92  63  94  65 /  30  50   5  10
Clovis..........................  95  65  96  67 /  20  20   5   0
Portales........................  96  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  95  65  95  66 /  30  40   5   5
Roswell.........................  98  69  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  62  91  63 /  20  10  10   5
Elk.............................  89  58  89  58 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon
for NMZ214-215.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16