Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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007 FXUS65 KABQ 252350 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 450 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 441 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Warming is forecast through the end of the work week, with temperatures rising above average. - Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, mainly from late Sunday into early week, should stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, due to potential for a storm system to bring winter travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday with increasing pressure heights as an upper level ridge expands into the Desert Southwest. A weak backdoor cold front is currently moving southwest across eastern NM, with occasional gusts to between 25-35mph behind the boundary. This front is forecast to lose it`s westward momentum this evening and will result in only a light east canyon/gap wind into the RGV overnight. Patches of fog and freezing fog may redevelop overnight across western NM, but forecast confidence is too low to include in the deterministic forecast at this time. Southwest breezes will pick-up late Wednesday morning across eastern NM due to a deepening lee side trough. Otherwise, Wednesday will pleasant, with high temperatures near average east and slightly above average west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft will become more westerly by Friday, with fair weather conditions persisting and temperatures rising above average across the entire forecast area. The base of an upper level trough moving east across the Rockies is forecast to graze northern NM on Saturday, bringing stronger westerly winds to the peaks of the northern mountains and potential for a few snow showers. A strong backdoor cold front will drop south down the eastern plains Saturday as the aforementioned trough ejects east out of the Rockies. The backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area Sunday, chilling the lower boundary layer in advance of another upper level trough dropping southeast out of the Pacific NW. There has been poor model run-to-run consistency with the evolution of this trough into an upper low and associated track, but the 12Z operational runs are comparable with the timing of the upper level trough/low passage through NM Monday night. There is still plenty of spread among the ensemble members, but there is a noteworthy risk for winter travel impacts across the region from late Sunday through Monday night with accumulating snow possibly reaching the lower elevations. This is an important consideration for travel late in the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Low clouds and patchy fog are forecast to produce another round of IFR conditions in the San Juan River Valley late tonight, including KFMN. Like today, there is a good chance flight category restrictions will persist until midday Wednesday. There is also a slight chance that low clouds and patchy fog will return to the Gallup area again late tonight until mid morning Wednesday. In addition, trusted forecast models depict patchy low clouds and fog developing late tonight and persisting through early Tuesday morning east of the Sacramento Mountains, and as far north as the Caprock, potentially impacting Roswell, Melrose, Portales, Clovis, and Fort Sumner. The probability was too low to include an MVFR ceiling in the Roswell TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A slow warming trend is forecast this week that will take temperatures above average areawide by Friday. A cold front will move through Saturday, improving vent rates from what will be poor/fair most areas through Friday to mostly fair/good. An upper level trough/low will impact the region late Sunday through Monday night, with higher humidity, chances for wetting precipitation and colder conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 27 52 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 17 51 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 22 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 20 55 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 27 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 21 58 21 60 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 24 59 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 30 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 27 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 24 64 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 66 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 28 49 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 22 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 24 48 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 18 41 21 47 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 11 46 11 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 19 51 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 19 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 22 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 28 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 25 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 54 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 27 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 24 57 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 23 57 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 27 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 25 56 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 31 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 30 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 51 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 23 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 17 55 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 23 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 25 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 25 54 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 30 56 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 28 54 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 19 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 20 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 21 56 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 23 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 54 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 27 63 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 26 60 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 26 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 29 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 27 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 29 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 35 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 27 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44