653
FXUS65 KABQ 162030
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A surge of monsoon moisture will cross Thursday through Saturday
  with numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
  evening mainly over central and western areas, except also over
  northeast areas on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is likely
  each day with a risk of flash flooding. Strong microburst wind
  gusts, small hail, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will
  also be possible.

- A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect for recent burn
  scars along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and
  Sacramento Mountains on Thursday afternoon and early evening.

- There will be a downtick in the coverage and rainfall intensity
  of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday; however, a minor to
  moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding will persist.

- After high temperatures near to below 1991-2020 averages during
  the latter half of this week, high temperatures will climb above
  the averages early next week. This will create moderate heat
  risk concerns in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Rich monsoon flow with embedded disturbances will stream
northeastward over the forecast area tonight through Thursday
night producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some high
resolution models, as well as the NAM12, favor northeast areas for
locally heavy rainfall this evening, where a moist backdoor front
will undercut the monsoon moisture. There could be an isolated
flash flood there this evening, but there isn`t much antecedent
moisture today, so we aren`t confident enough to issue a Flash
Flood Watch there for this evening. The risk of flash flooding
should be greatest on Thursday, when storms will be most numerous
and PWATs will spike between 100-175% of normal, with the
greatest deviation across the northeast. With this forecast
package, we will issue a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for
Thursday, for the recent burn scars on the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, including the Las Vegas
and Ruidoso areas. The night shift may expand the Flood Watch for
Thursday east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where the
greatest rain falls tonight.

Otherwise, high temperatures look to fall a few to around 7
degrees on Thursday from today`s readings thanks to the increased
cloud cover and precipitation, as well as cooler air behind the
moist backdoor front that dives into the forecast area tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
Friday through Saturday as a disturbance crossing the Four Corners
region from the upper Baja Peninsula continues to steer rich
monsoon moisture across the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall
is expected both days with a risk of flash flooding mainly from
the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, with
little or no rainfall expected farther east.

Drier air is forecast to filter over northern parts of the
forecast area from the west Sunday and Monday, while an upper
level high pressure system over the lower Mississippi River Valley
keeps trying to funnel monsoon moisture northward over NM. This
should result in a downtick in thunderstorm coverage north of
I-40, with a greater risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding farther south. Some models depict another uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity on Tuesday as another
disturbance embedded in rich monsoon flow moves northward over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over
northern and western parts of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening, with scattered to isolated activity elsewhere, except for
dry weather along and east of a line from Fort Sumner to Dunken.
Some storms may turn severe this afternoon and evening across far
northeast areas with a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Elsewhere, wet microbursts from some thunderstorms will be
capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up
to 45 KT this afternoon and evening. Late tonight, isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger
over western areas, and along and east of the Sangre de Cristo,
Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. Further, late tonight until mid
morning Thursday, areas of low clouds are expected to produce MVFR
and IFR conditions as far south as I-40 and potentially as far
west as the central mountain chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Humidities are forecast to climb above 15 percent Thursday through
Sunday as a surge of monsoon moisture crosses with locally heavy
rainfall each day. Drier air moving in from the west should
begin to decrease thunderstorm coverage and the size of wetting
footprints over northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Minimum
humidities will also plummet below 15 percent at lower elevations
west central and northwest Monday, and potentially into Tuesday.
Some models depict a resurgence of monsoon moisture northward over
the forecast area again on Tuesday, with an increase in
thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  89  65  91 /  30  40  60  20
Dulce...........................  49  87  49  88 /  40  70  70  60
Cuba............................  59  85  57  85 /  60  70  80  60
Gallup..........................  55  84  53  86 /  60  80  70  60
El Morro........................  55  81  54  83 /  60  80  80  80
Grants..........................  56  84  56  87 /  60  70  70  70
Quemado.........................  55  81  57  84 /  80  70  80  80
Magdalena.......................  62  84  62  85 /  40  60  70  70
Datil...........................  54  80  56  82 /  50  70  60  80
Reserve.........................  52  86  54  90 /  70  80  60  80
Glenwood........................  57  90  60  94 /  70  70  50  70
Chama...........................  49  79  48  81 /  40  80  70  70
Los Alamos......................  63  82  60  81 /  50  80  70  60
Pecos...........................  58  80  57  83 /  50  80  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  55  82  54  83 /  60  90  70  70
Red River.......................  45  72  46  74 /  60  90  60  70
Angel Fire......................  42  74  43  76 /  50  90  60  70
Taos............................  55  83  54  85 /  50  80  60  50
Mora............................  51  75  50  80 /  50  80  60  60
Espanola........................  62  90  60  90 /  50  80  70  40
Santa Fe........................  63  83  61  84 /  50  80  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  62  87  59  87 /  50  70  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  89  67  91 /  50  60  80  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  90  67  92 /  50  60  70  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  92  66  94 /  50  50  70  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  90  66  92 /  50  60  70  40
Belen...........................  65  91  64  93 /  40  40  70  40
Bernalillo......................  68  91  65  93 /  50  60  70  40
Bosque Farms....................  66  90  63  93 /  50  40  70  40
Corrales........................  69  92  66  94 /  50  60  70  40
Los Lunas.......................  67  90  64  93 /  50  40  70  40
Placitas........................  67  88  64  89 /  50  60  70  50
Rio Rancho......................  69  91  66  93 /  50  60  70  40
Socorro.........................  69  93  68  95 /  40  40  60  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  83  58  85 /  50  70  70  60
Tijeras.........................  62  84  60  86 /  50  60  70  60
Edgewood........................  57  85  56  86 /  40  60  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  85  55  86 /  40  60  60  50
Clines Corners..................  57  79  56  81 /  40  60  60  50
Mountainair.....................  59  83  58  85 /  40  50  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  59  82  59  84 /  40  50  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  65  85  65  86 /  20  50  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  59  78  58  78 /  10  60  30  80
Capulin.........................  54  77  54  83 /  70  70  60  40
Raton...........................  54  81  54  86 /  70  80  50  40
Springer........................  57  82  56  88 /  60  80  50  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  79  54  83 /  50  70  60  50
Clayton.........................  60  83  63  90 /  80  40  50   5
Roy.............................  59  81  59  86 /  60  60  60  20
Conchas.........................  65  90  65  93 /  40  40  60  10
Santa Rosa......................  64  87  63  88 /  30  40  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  63  89  64  91 /  30  20  50   0
Clovis..........................  67  93  67  93 /  10  10  40   5
Portales........................  68  93  67  93 /  10  10  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67  93  67  93 /  20  20  40  10
Roswell.........................  72  97  72  96 /   5  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  64  89  64  88 /   5  30  30  50
Elk.............................  62  86  61  86 /   5  40  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
NMZ214-215-229.

Flood Watch Thursday afternoon for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44