212
FXUS65 KABQ 171124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into
  northern and central New Mexico this week, increasing the
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a
  risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
  around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings today
  and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks,
  streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up
  this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of
  standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week
  could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and
  small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Another outflow boundary from storms over northern Mexico is surging
northward in western and central NM early this morning. The elevated
instability is somewhat modest (MU CAPE of 200-500 J/kg), but PWATs
are near record levels for the date (1.2-1.5") and IVT of around 500
units is certainly impressive. This batch of storms has a history of
producing instantaneous rates upwards of 2"/hour, but these rates
have been very brief. Therefore much of this rainfall will be
beneficial and should be able to soak into the ground without
producing excessive rainfall. This is backed up by recent WOFs runs
that show low chances of rainfall accumulation >1" during the
overnight period. The area to watch though will be along the
Continental Divide where upslope flow in this regime could sneakily
squeak out a few more tenths of an inch. Arroyos in the Albuquerque
metro are likely to be running overnight until sunrise from this
rainfall, but the threat of very rapid rises is on the low side.
This leading edge of this outflow boundary should reach the Colorado
border around sunrise, with mostly showery rainfall throughout much
of northern and northwest New Mexico.

Hi-res models are relatively consistently showing clearing from the
southwest late morning through the early afternoon, which will help
some sfc based instability build up in western and central NM.
Increasing mechanical lift from a north/south oriented jet streak
over northern AZ will focus convection across northwest and north-
central NM during the afternoon and evening hours. QPF bullseyes of
1-2" appear likely with very isolated totals up to 3". Considering
this along with the fact that soils have rapidly saturated, another
Flash Flood Watch was issued for the northwest third of the state
for areas north of I-40 and west of I-25. Most areas will likely
only see beneficial rainfall, but a few instances of flash flooding
can be expected in this area. As soils continue to saturate from
rounds and rounds of showers and storms, rock and mudslides could
become an issue across the northern mountains, particularly in the
Jemez and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Persistent moderate
rainfall rates could be enough to initiate these as it won`t
necessarily take torrential rainfall.

Another slug of moisture associated with an outflow boundary from
afternoon convection in Old Mexico will make its way northward into
central NM again Thursday night. Similar to tonight, amounts of 0.25-
0.75" are likely with this feature. Flow over New Mexico will become
more westerly Friday as the California trough ejects across the
Great Basin into the northern Rockies. This will disrupt the sub-
tropical tap, but the scouring out of moisture will be slow and
there will still be plenty around on Friday for scattered to
widespread storms. Jet dynamics become more favorable and could
support the development of a few strong storms, with instability
being the limiting factor. Storms will focus along a shortwave that
will be oriented roughly 45 degrees from the moisture flux vector so
training of storms is likely and will continue to support a flash
flood threat, albeit more isolated than yesterday and today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The drying trend will become more noticeable Saturday as PWATs drop
into the 0.5-1" range. Western NM will get a much needed break from
the rain while central and eastern areas receive scattered showers
and storms with fast storm motions. Sunday still looks like it will
be the driest day of the week with only low rain chances in the
eastern plains.

The combination of a backdoor front and the return of a subtropical
tap (from troughing over California) will replenish moisture over
New Mexico early next week. More widespread, soaking rainfall is
expected although the exact trajectory of the sub-tropical tap will
determine which areas are favored. This monsoon burst will be
slightly different than the one from this week because an amplified
sub-tropical jet stream will be playing a stronger role. Stronger
forcing aloft means storms will be less dependent on afternoon
destabilization and increased shear will support the development of
storms that can sustain themselves over a longer period of time.
Furthermore, storm motions will be faster, which is good news for
sensitive areas such as recent burn scars. Long-term guidance is in
good agreement that above normal moisture will remain in place over
the desert southwest through the end of the month, keeping storm
chances around.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Widespread showers continue early this morning around the region.
MVFR to brief IFR conditions have occurred with heavier showers,
which currently focus along the Rio Grande Valley south of I-40.
These showers will clear from south to north this morning through
the early afternoon.

Storms with heavier rainfall rates will favor western and northern
NM this afternoon between 20Z and 03Z, with lesser coverage
across the east. Another swath of showers will move in from the
south tonight, with persistent showers likely across much of
central and northern NM overnight into the early morning.
Confidence in MVFR cigs tonight is lower than this morning as it
looks like cloud bases should remain slightly higher.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Wet weather with numerous showers and storms will persist through
the end of the week, with the highest rain chances in central and
western New Mexico. Soils have rapidly saturated from rain the past
couple of days so rapid runoff will occur quicker when heavy rain
occurs. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of north-central
and northwest NM Thursday through Thursday night. Overnight humidity
recoveries will continue to be excellent through Saturday, with
slightly worse recoveries Sunday and Monday mornings before
improving again Tuesday.

Drying will occur from west to east over the weekend. The dry
weather will be short-lived as moisture gets replenished early next
week. An active sub-tropical jet stream will favor widespread to
numerous showers and storms mid-week, likely persisting into the
late week period. Near to slightly below average temperatures are
likely during this period as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  56  78  53 /  90  50  40  40
Dulce...........................  72  43  75  39 / 100  90  60  60
Cuba............................  72  50  73  47 /  90  80  40  30
Gallup..........................  74  47  77  46 /  70  30  30  20
El Morro........................  73  46  75  46 /  50  40  50  20
Grants..........................  75  50  77  48 /  70  50  70  20
Quemado.........................  74  52  78  50 /  30  30  40  20
Magdalena.......................  74  58  75  54 /  40  60  70  50
Datil...........................  71  53  73  51 /  40  40  50  30
Reserve.........................  76  52  81  51 /  20  20  20   5
Glenwood........................  80  57  87  56 /  20  30  30   5
Chama...........................  66  47  69  43 / 100 100  70  50
Los Alamos......................  73  57  73  54 /  70  80  60  30
Pecos...........................  75  52  75  50 /  90  90  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  72  52  72  49 /  80  90  50  20
Red River.......................  64  45  65  41 /  70  70  50  10
Angel Fire......................  69  36  70  34 /  80  60  50  10
Taos............................  76  48  76  45 /  80  80  50  20
Mora............................  74  50  76  47 /  80  70  50  10
Espanola........................  80  55  80  53 /  70  80  60  30
Santa Fe........................  75  56  74  54 /  80  80  60  20
Santa Fe Airport................  77  54  76  51 /  70  80  60  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  62  81  59 /  60  80  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  59  80  56 /  50  80  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  58  82  56 /  50  80  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  61  80  59 /  50  80  50  40
Belen...........................  80  57  82  54 /  40  70  50  40
Bernalillo......................  80  59  81  57 /  60  80  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  80  55  82  53 /  50  70  40  40
Corrales........................  81  60  82  57 /  60  80  50  40
Los Lunas.......................  80  57  82  55 /  40  70  50  40
Placitas........................  78  60  78  57 /  60  80  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  80  60  80  57 /  50  80  50  40
Socorro.........................  83  63  86  60 /  20  60  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  55  76  52 /  60  80  50  40
Tijeras.........................  77  57  77  55 /  60  80  50  40
Edgewood........................  79  52  79  50 /  50  70  60  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  49  80  47 /  50  70  60  40
Clines Corners..................  77  54  76  52 /  70  70  50  40
Mountainair.....................  79  55  79  52 /  30  60  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  78  56  79  53 /  20  50  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  80  60  82  58 /  30  30  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  76  55  78  55 /  60  40  60  50
Capulin.........................  77  55  79  51 /  20  20  10  10
Raton...........................  79  52  82  48 /  50  40  20   0
Springer........................  82  54  84  49 /  40  50  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  76  53  77  51 /  80  70  30  10
Clayton.........................  86  63  88  60 /   0   5   0   5
Roy.............................  80  58  82  55 /  20  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  87  64  90  62 /   0  10  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  81  62  85  60 /  10  20  80  40
Tucumcari.......................  86  65  90  62 /   0  10  30  30
Clovis..........................  88  64  93  64 /   0   0  30  40
Portales........................  88  65  93  64 /   0   0  30  40
Fort Sumner.....................  87  64  91  62 /   0  10  40  50
Roswell.........................  90  66  94  66 /   0   5  30  60
Picacho.........................  84  59  87  59 /  30  20  70  60
Elk.............................  83  57  86  57 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ201>209-214-
217-226-241.

Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through late tonight for
NMZ201>204-207-210>221-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16