210
FXUS65 KABQ 162110
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures. Major heat
  risk may impact the middle to lower Rio Grande valley and
  southeast plains.

- Breezy west winds and very low humidity in areas with dry fuels
  will create high fire danger in portions of western and central
  New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Smoke from fires in southwestern
  New Mexico may reduce air quality.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Despite the very dry boundary layer, high-based cumulus has developed
over the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Some
gustier than expected winds have already been observed near the AZ
border this afternoon thanks to an approaching shortwave. Winds will
decrease overnight, but a rouge gust or two cannot be ruled out with
the passage of a weak frontal boundary from the west. The slight
northwesterly shift in winds should be enough to keep smoke (from
fires in the Gila NF) out of the Albuquerque metro area, but
portions of Valencia and Socorro counties might not be quite as
lucky. That being said, the HRRR smoke model is not showing much to
be concerned about, with near-surface smoke begin confined to the
area right around the wildfires.

Despite the weak frontal passage, temperatures will heat up quite
nicely tomorrow thanks to a downsloping westerly breeze. This dry,
downsloping wind will surge temps to the highest values of the
season thus far in eastern NM. The Extreme Heat Watch was upgraded
to a Warning for the Chaves County Plains for this reason, despite
probabilistic guidance being less enthused (only a 14% chance of
reaching 110F in Roswell). Additional Heat Advisories may be needed
as far north as Quay County, but confidence was not high enough in
temps reaching 105F. The highest temperature uncertainty tomorrow
is actually in northeastern NM due to the timing differences in the
passage of a backdoor cold front. The lift along the front could
spark a storm or two in the northeast corner of the state, but dry
air entrainment should limit the intensity and duration of these
storms. The progress of the front will be slowed in the afternoon,
but it should surge south and westward overnight, replenishing
moisture across eastern NM and creating brief gap winds in east
Albuquerque Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks to be a relatively
tranquil day with dry conditions prevailing areawide, with the
exception of a few sprinkles in the northern mountains. Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average in most areas, but the triple
digit heat looks to be kept at bay, except for the extreme southern
portion of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

With the center of the H5 ridge moving overhead Thursday,
temperatures will climb up a few more degrees. This may necessitate
the issuance of Heat Advisories for the lower elevations of central
and western NM, with a lower chance in eastern NM thanks to higher
dewpoints which will act to keep temps down. The deterministic
Canadian model is trying to spit out some virga showers over the
central mountain chain on both Thursday and Friday afternoons. A dry
storm or two cannot be ruled out either, particularly on Friday as
LIs drop to as low as -3C over the Sangre de Cristo mountains.

Models are in good agreement that the ridge axis will shift eastward
over the weekend, putting New Mexico under southerly flow. This will
draw sub-tropical moisture in from the Gulf of California and
increase storm chances. Both the GEFS and ENS show the main moisture
plume focusing over central and eastern NM, with western NM on the
fringes. A Low off to the west may also contribute to some added
forcing aloft, which could help storms sustain their strength longer
and increase the risk of flash flooding in training storms. The
surge in moisture will correspond with a drop in temperatures down
to around seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A light afternoon breeze is expected at most terminals this
afternoon and evening, which should help to clear out dust/smoke
that has settled in the Rio Grande Valley. There is a low chance
of a few showers and storms along the dryline this afternoon,
with gusty outflow winds the main hazard with these. Winds will
strengthen aloft from the northwest overnight, potentially
creating some LLWS in the San Juan and Rio Grande Valleys after
the boundary layer decouples late tonight. Smoke from fires in
the Gila mountains may create minor visibility reductions in
central NM again Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS, VERY LOW
HUMIDITY, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

The Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow was expanded to include much of
central and western NM and upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Winds are
marginal for Red Flag Conditions, but the very low humidities (as
low as 4%) combined with very hot temperatures, ERCs above the 90th
percentile, active fires, and the fact that there was dry lightning
last week all contributed to the decision to issue and expand the
Red Flag Warning. A few gusty showers may develop along the dryline
this afternoon and along the leading edge of a backdoor front in
northeastern NM tomorrow. Other than that, mostly dry and hot
conditions will prevail through the end of the workweek. Elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions return to western NM on
Thursday and Friday due to increasing southwest winds. Models are in
good agreement that the ridge will slide off to the east by the
weekend and begin to draw sub-tropical moisture into the area. The
plume of moisture looks to line-up in central and eastern NM, with
western NM remaining on the fringes of the moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  93  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  87  43  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  54  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  49  91  44  92 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  88  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  52  91  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  62  93  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  56  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  96  48  99 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  99  53 101 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  46  81  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  62  88  58  86 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  56  88  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  52  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   5
Red River.......................  46  74  42  75 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  37  78  35  79 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  49  88  45  87 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  50  85  46  82 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  58  95  53  93 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  60  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  58  93  54  91 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  97  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  99  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  97  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63 100  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  98  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  63  99  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  64  98  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  99  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  66  94  62  93 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  66  97  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  68 103  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  61  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  59  91  53  89 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  93  50  90 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  58  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  60  91  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  93  54  89 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  66  96  62  94 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  63  88  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  54  85  48  79 /   0  20   5   5
Raton...........................  52  91  48  86 /   0  20   0  10
Springer........................  51  93  50  86 /   0  10   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  55  89  50  84 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  61  90  57  84 /   5  20  10   0
Roy.............................  57  93  54  83 /   0  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  62 102  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  99  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  66 103  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69 103  63  91 /  10   0   5   0
Portales........................  68 104  63  92 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65 104  62  94 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  70 110  69  99 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65 100  62  92 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  64  96  59  91 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-105-
106-109.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ209-219-220-238.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16