Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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585 FXUS65 KABQ 130005 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 605 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 556 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 - Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs. - Isolated to scattered storms may produce strong downburst wind gusts, brief rain, and blowing dust this afternoon and evening. - A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and increasing into next week will elevated the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 The Monsoon high is currently centered over southern NM and forecast to move east through Sunday to over the Ark-La-Tex, which will open the southern door for moisture advection into our area. This trend has already begun and PWATs are climbing, with the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding showing 0.76" which is almost 0.30" higher than 24hrs ago. This trend will continue Sunday, with PWATs forecast to reach up to near 1.0" at KABQ. Today`s crop of convection will be limited in coverage and be of lower precipitation efficiency due to the lower PWAT atmosphere. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the primary threat with storms today, although slow storm motion and a slightly higher PWAT environment across the Southwest Mountains may allow for a few spots of locally heavy rainfall. A more standard Monsoon atmosphere will be in place by Sunday and an uptick in convective coverage with greater rainfall efficiency are expected. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso Sunday afternoon, but storms will be moving north and cross-basin, which may limit the threat to training storms. A moderate heat risk will persist across the eastern plains Sunday and Roswell is forecast to reach 102 degrees, which would be the 3rd day in a row of 100+ and the 4th of the last 5 days. Several locales across eastern NM will challenge daily record highs Sunday, including Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 PWATs will continue to climb from Monday through Thursday, challenging daily record values as the upper high sets up over TN/AL/MS and troughing along the west coast allows for a Monsoon moisture plume to stand up over the region. This will be an increasingly wet period, with daytime temps trending down, PoPs trending up and an increasing threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will increase as well and be elevated all week. An upper low/trough will move east toward the central Rockies Thursday and bring added forcing to the region, potentially enhancing convection and the flash flood threat. The 12Z medium range model solutions show a drop-off in PWATs beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Desert SW and southern Great Basin, bringing a downtrend in PoPs. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish during late evening, lingering longest over southwest and west central areas. On Sunday, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return with the vast majority of the activity from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward, and some spottier cells in the Clovis area. Storms on Sunday will mostly move toward the northeast at speeds around 10-15 KT. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing wet microbursts with erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT with localized blowing dust at lower elevations. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Relatively dry and unusually hot conditions will be replaced with higher humidity and good chances for wetting rain from Sunday through much of next week as a Monsoon moisture plume develops over the area. High temperatures will trend down going into mid week and be near to below average from mid through late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 91 62 83 / 5 20 50 50 Dulce........................... 50 87 53 79 / 0 40 50 70 Cuba............................ 57 85 56 77 / 5 30 50 80 Gallup.......................... 55 86 56 80 / 10 20 40 50 El Morro........................ 53 83 54 77 / 20 40 50 60 Grants.......................... 56 86 57 81 / 20 40 40 60 Quemado......................... 57 84 57 78 / 20 40 40 80 Magdalena....................... 62 86 62 80 / 30 30 30 80 Datil........................... 56 82 56 77 / 20 40 40 70 Reserve......................... 57 87 57 83 / 20 30 20 60 Glenwood........................ 61 93 62 88 / 20 20 30 60 Chama........................... 51 81 51 72 / 0 40 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 62 86 61 80 / 10 30 40 80 Pecos........................... 56 87 57 82 / 10 30 50 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 84 56 78 / 5 20 20 60 Red River....................... 47 75 49 69 / 5 20 20 50 Angel Fire...................... 40 80 47 75 / 5 40 30 50 Taos............................ 54 88 57 82 / 5 20 30 50 Mora............................ 53 84 55 81 / 10 40 40 50 Espanola........................ 62 92 63 86 / 5 20 30 60 Santa Fe........................ 60 88 60 82 / 10 20 40 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 90 60 85 / 10 20 40 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 66 87 / 10 20 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 92 67 88 / 10 20 30 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 94 66 89 / 10 20 30 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 93 67 88 / 10 20 40 60 Belen........................... 65 95 65 89 / 10 10 30 60 Bernalillo...................... 66 94 66 89 / 10 20 30 50 Bosque Farms.................... 63 94 63 89 / 10 10 30 60 Corrales........................ 66 94 66 89 / 10 20 30 50 Los Lunas....................... 63 94 63 89 / 10 10 30 60 Placitas........................ 65 91 65 86 / 10 20 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 67 93 67 88 / 10 20 40 50 Socorro......................... 70 96 70 90 / 20 10 30 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 87 61 82 / 10 30 30 50 Tijeras......................... 63 88 62 84 / 10 30 30 50 Edgewood........................ 60 89 60 85 / 10 30 30 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 91 55 87 / 10 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 58 87 59 83 / 20 20 30 40 Mountainair..................... 60 89 61 84 / 10 20 20 50 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 61 85 / 10 20 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 66 91 66 87 / 5 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 60 83 59 80 / 5 50 20 60 Capulin......................... 55 87 60 86 / 5 20 30 30 Raton........................... 53 91 56 89 / 5 20 20 30 Springer........................ 55 93 58 90 / 5 30 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 56 88 58 84 / 10 30 30 30 Clayton......................... 61 94 67 93 / 5 10 30 20 Roy............................. 59 91 64 89 / 5 10 30 30 Conchas......................... 65 100 69 97 / 5 10 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 65 96 67 93 / 5 20 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 67 100 70 97 / 5 10 20 20 Clovis.......................... 69 99 68 95 / 5 10 20 10 Portales........................ 70 100 68 96 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 68 99 69 96 / 5 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 71 102 70 99 / 5 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 65 94 64 91 / 10 30 20 60 Elk............................. 62 91 61 88 / 10 40 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44