702
FXUS65 KABQ 191534 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
934 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 931 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Some storms may turn severe over northeast and east central areas
  today, and to a lesser extent Thursday, with large hail and
  damaging winds being the main threats.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air
  quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- After moderate-to-major heat risk from Farmington to Roswell
  today, major heat risk will become more widespread over
  central and eastern areas this weekend and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The backdoor "cold" front over eastern NM has surged south past
I-40 this morning with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s and
60s over northeast NM. The front will serve as a trigger for more
storms today. 12Z CAMs trended coverage greater today from the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts to the Sandia/Manzanos and
around Corona. A quick update to raise PoPs and lower max temps
slightly has been posted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Early this morning, a moist backdoor front will move
southwestward through the northeast and east central plains,
eventually banking up against the east slopes of the Manzano,
Sandia, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The stalled front will
then provide a trigger for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. In addition, an upper level trough will clip northeast
NM in northwest flow aloft today invigorating thunderstorm
activity with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
over much of the forecast area, except for numerous cells along
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and near Glenwood. Bulk shear
around 25-35 KT and CAPE around 1000-3300 J/KG should enable some
severe storms to develop along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains this afternoon and early evening. A few strong to severe
storms will also be possible over the south central and southwest
mountains. Further, NBM 90th percentile QPF indicates that a few
locations along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and
across the northeast and far northeast highlands, could
accumulate over 2 inches of rain with a risk of localized flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Some of the shortwave energy
with the upper level trough will linger over NM tonight into
Thursday, enabling some showers and thunderstorms to persist over
central and eastern areas during the late night hours, and
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to return to much
of the forecast area on Thursday afternoon and evening. Shear and
instability again look sufficient for a few strong to severe
storms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain on
Thursday afternoon and early evening.

A roughly 596 DAM mid-level high pressure system aloft centered
over and just west of the NM/AZ border today will migrate
northward over the Four Corners on Thursday. High temperatures
today will climb a few to around 5 degrees most places, except for
a few to 5 degrees of cooling across northeast areas behind the
front. A few valley locations around Albuquerque and Farmington
will probably reach 100 F today, but Heat Risk is only forecast to
be moderate in most locations, so will forego a Heat Advisory. On
Thursday, continued moisture influx from the east and southeast
will cause high temperatures to fall a few to around 4 degrees in
most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The high pressure center over the Four Corners is forecast to
drift eastward along or just north of the CO border on Friday,
to reach the northeast corner of NM Saturday, then drift southward
along NM`s eastern border to near I-40 on Sunday; where it will
probably stall through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return along and west of the
central mountain chain Friday. Drier air will then move over
southern and eventually western parts of the forecast area from
the southeast over the weekend with a downtick in storm coverage
each day. By Monday and Tuesday, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor locations along the CO/NM border, with
spottier cells over the western mountains.

Temperature-wise, highs will trend a few degrees cooler in the
west Friday and Saturday, while trending warmer central and east.
Then, warmer readings are forecast area-wide Sunday and Monday.
Readings will continue to vary around 5-11 F above 1991-2020
averages. Monday night and Tuesday, some models depict a moist
backdoor front sagging southward through the eastern plains with
cooler temperatures there and the potential for increased
thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

There will be a somewhat gusty north and northeast wind shift
behind a moist backdoor front on the northeast and east central
plains early this morning. Then, scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening,
except for more numerous cells across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, northeast highlands, and around Glenwood. Storm motion
will be toward the south and southwest around 5-10 KT, except
toward the southeast around 10-15 KT across northeast areas. Some
storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and also
on the east central plains, will probably turn severe by producing
large hail and damaging winds during the afternoon and early
evening. A few strong-to-severe storms will also be possible over
the southern tier of mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas of sub-15 percent minimum humidity will return today over
southern, central and western parts of the fire weather forecast
area. Humidities will climb above 15 percent on Thursday (except
over northwest areas), then over all but the Four Corners on
Friday. Areas of sub-15 percent humidity will increase in
coverage each day Saturday through Tuesday. Otherwise, the main
fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm
outflow, which will be most widespread today through Friday, then
relegated mainly to northern and western areas this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  66  98  66 /   0   0   5  30
Dulce...........................  93  51  94  50 /  10  10  30  20
Cuba............................  92  59  92  59 /  10  10  30  30
Gallup..........................  92  59  93  58 /  10  30   5  10
El Morro........................  88  57  88  57 /  20  30  40  30
Grants..........................  92  60  93  59 /  10  30  20  30
Quemado.........................  89  61  88  59 /  20  30  40  30
Magdalena.......................  90  64  90  64 /  20  30  20  30
Datil...........................  87  60  87  59 /  30  20  40  30
Reserve.........................  93  59  94  57 /  40  20  50  20
Glenwood........................  96  63  98  63 /  60  20  50  20
Chama...........................  86  52  86  52 /  30  30  60  20
Los Alamos......................  89  63  90  63 /  30  40  20  30
Pecos...........................  90  59  88  57 /  40  50  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  88  57  87  58 /  30  60  30  40
Red River.......................  78  48  77  49 /  40  60  50  40
Angel Fire......................  83  41  82  41 /  50  60  60  30
Taos............................  91  55  91  56 /  20  60  20  30
Mora............................  87  54  85  54 /  50  70  60  30
Espanola........................  97  63  97  63 /  20  40  10  30
Santa Fe........................  91  64  91  63 /  20  40  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  94  61  93  61 /  10  40  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  70  98  68 /  20  40  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  67  98  66 /  10  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  67 100  66 /  10  30  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  69  99  69 /  10  30  10  20
Belen........................... 100  66  99  65 /   5  10  10  20
Bernalillo...................... 100  68 100  67 /  20  30  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  99  65  99  64 /  10  20  10  20
Corrales........................ 100  69 100  68 /  10  30  10  20
Los Lunas....................... 100  67  99  66 /   5  20  10  20
Placitas........................  95  67  95  66 /  20  40  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  99  68  99  68 /  10  30  10  20
Socorro......................... 101  70 101  70 /   5  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  62  91  61 /  20  40  30  20
Tijeras.........................  93  63  91  62 /  20  40  40  20
Edgewood........................  94  59  93  58 /  30  40  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  58  94  56 /  30  40  40  30
Clines Corners..................  90  60  88  59 /  40  30  40  30
Mountainair.....................  92  60  92  58 /  30  20  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  91  60  90  59 /  30  20  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  94  67  94  66 /  30  30  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  86  62  86  60 /  50  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  85  56  85  57 /  60  70  30  20
Raton...........................  90  55  89  56 /  70  70  30  30
Springer........................  93  56  91  56 /  60  60  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  90  57  88  56 /  70  60  40  30
Clayton.........................  89  64  92  65 /   5  30   0  10
Roy.............................  91  61  90  60 /  50  50  10  20
Conchas.........................  98  66  97  65 /  20  30   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  65  93  63 /  20  40  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  98  66  97  65 /  20  20   5  20
Clovis.......................... 100  67  98  67 /  10  30   5  30
Portales........................ 101  68  99  68 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Sumner..................... 100  68  98  67 /  20  30   5  20
Roswell......................... 103  70 101  70 /   0   5   0  10
Picacho.........................  97  66  95  65 /  20   5  10  10
Elk.............................  94  63  94  62 /  20   5  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44