051
FXUS65 KABQ 222340 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected each
afternoon and evening through the end of next week. Flash flooding
is possible each day over recent burn scars and areas that have
received significant rainfall in the past several days. Thunderstorm
coverage will trend up around the middle of next week, with numerous
storms possible Wednesday and Thursday, further increasing the risk
of flooding. Temperatures will climb through early next week, but
remain within a few degrees of seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A broad swath of dense cloud coverage has kept the atmosphere
relatively stable thus far this afternoon, but a few updrafts are
beginning to develop over the southwest mountains as clearing begins
to occur. Thanks to all the cloud cover, recent runs of hi-res
models have backed off on the heavier rainfall rates for this
afternoon and evening. That being said, the mid-level instability
for storms to develop is there if clearing does briefly occur.
Similar to last night, showers will linger across central and
western NM with generally light rainfall rates. The elongated High
over the southern tier of the US will shift westward over the
Permian Basin tomorrow afternoon, pushing the main moisture plume on
the west side of the High over Arizona. That being said, PWATs will
remain anomalously high, ranging from 1 to as much as 3 standard
deviations above normal across the west. Storm motion will be from
west to east across most of the area, with slower and erratic
motions further south closer to the center of the mid-level High.
Confidence in precipitation is greatest along and just east of the
central mountain chain since storms will likely develop over the
peaks and slowly drift into the adjacent highlands. Given this set-
up, another Flash Flood Watch was issued for the HPCC burn scar and
areas downstream (including Las Vegas). Since there was significant
flooding over this area last evening, nearly saturated soils will
struggle to absorb any rainfall. Flash flooding is still possible
elsewhere (including the recent burn scars in the Sacramento
mountains), but confidence was not high enough to issue the Flash
Flood Watch this far out. Precipitation coverage will decrease in
the late evening with the loss of daytime heating, although showers
may linger through the night once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The wet weather pattern is expected to continue through the end of
next week with the risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars
being the main concern. High pressure will slowly retrograde across
the state Monday and Tuesday, shifting storm motion from west to
east to more northwest to southeast. Rising heights will also result
in higher afternoon temps, but brought them down a few degrees from
what the NBM showed since the airmass will be relatively moist and
scattered afternoon showers and storms should help to moderate the
atmosphere somewhat. Minor heat-related impacts are still possible
given that overnight temps will struggle to go below 70 along the
Rio Grande Valley and 75 in the southeast plains. Then, storm
activity is expected to ramp-up again Wednesday as southeasterly
flow advects deeper moisture in from the east. Widespread shower and
storm activity is likely, but the subsidence from the high pressure
overhead may be able to inhibit the instability somewhat. Thursday
has the potential to be even more active than Wednesday as the ridge
axis backs off to the east and a trough intrudes from the Pacific
Northwest. At the same time, deep subtropical moisture associated
with convective activity over Mexico will be advected in from the
south, surging PWATs back up to as much as 250% of normal areawide.
During this time, the flash flood risk will extend to locations
outside of recent burn scars given the threat for training storms to
generate rounds of torrential rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overcast shield of clouds with VFR conditions will continue to
spread from southwest mountains to northeast NM through the
nighttime hours. Any storms with localized and brief MVFR to IFR
conditions across parts of east central and southeast NM will
quickly dissipate after sunset. Some showers could be possible in
west central areas overnight from just south of KGUP to areas west
of KABQ and KAEG. Daytime heating with allow some slow moving showers
and storms with localized MVFR and IFR conditions to develop in
the southwest mountains and central mountain chain come midday and
could impact surrounding lower elevations sites including KGUP,
KABQ, KSAF, and KLVS during the mid afternoon to early evening
hours. Have included PROB 30s for these sites due to the low
confidence.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow will favor the high
terrain of western and northern NM, with isolated storms elsewhere.
Heavy rainfall will be localized, generally over the high terrain,
creating an increased risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars.
With dense cloud coverage and lingering shower activity, overnight
RH recoveries will generally be excellent the next couple nights.
Temperatures will climb early next week to around 5-10 degrees above
average. As temperatures rise, humidities will trend lower but
remain above 20% each afternoon. Thunderstorm activity trends up
around the middle of next week as deeper subtropical moisture moves
into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  86  65  90 /   0  10   0  10
Dulce...........................  55  83  55  87 /  10  20  10  20
Cuba............................  61  80  61  85 /  20  30   5  30
Gallup..........................  60  81  59  88 /  30  30   5  30
El Morro........................  59  76  59  82 /  30  50  20  50
Grants..........................  60  81  60  87 /  30  50  20  60
Quemado.........................  60  77  59  83 /  60  60  30  70
Magdalena.......................  64  81  64  85 /  40  50  20  60
Datil...........................  60  77  60  82 /  60  70  40  70
Reserve.........................  59  85  61  89 /  60  50  30  70
Glenwood........................  66  91  70  95 /  30  50  30  70
Chama...........................  54  77  52  82 /  20  30  20  30
Los Alamos......................  64  79  63  84 /  20  40  20  40
Pecos...........................  61  79  60  85 /  30  60  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  54  77  54  82 /  10  40  10  40
Red River.......................  49  70  50  75 /  20  40  10  40
Angel Fire......................  49  73  50  79 /  20  50  10  30
Taos............................  56  82  57  87 /  10  30  10  20
Mora............................  56  78  56  84 /  30  60  20  40
Espanola........................  64  87  63  92 /  20  30  10  20
Santa Fe........................  62  81  63  86 /  30  40  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  63  84  63  89 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  87  68  91 /  20  40  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  88  69  93 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  90  69  95 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  88  69  93 /  20  30  20  30
Belen...........................  69  90  67  95 /  20  30  20  40
Bernalillo......................  69  89  68  94 /  20  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  68  90  67  95 /  20  30  20  30
Corrales........................  70  89  69  95 /  20  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  69  90  68  95 /  20  30  20  30
Placitas........................  67  85  68  90 /  20  30  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  69  88  68  93 /  20  30  20  30
Socorro.........................  70  93  70  96 /  30  40  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  79  64  85 /  20  40  20  30
Tijeras.........................  64  82  65  87 /  20  40  20  30
Edgewood........................  63  83  61  88 /  20  40  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  62  84  60  89 /  20  50  10  30
Clines Corners..................  60  80  61  85 /  20  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  63  82  63  88 /  30  40  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  63  84  63  88 /  30  50  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  68  88  67  92 /  30  40  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  60  79  62  84 /  30  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  59  80  58  87 /  20  60  10  20
Raton...........................  58  84  58  90 /  10  50   5  20
Springer........................  59  85  59  91 /  20  40   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  59  79  59  85 /  20  50  10  30
Clayton.........................  67  87  66  93 /  20  40  20  10
Roy.............................  62  84  63  90 /  40  40  20  20
Conchas.........................  68  91  68  97 /  30  40  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  67  86  66  92 /  30  40  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  69  92  69  97 /  30  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  67  93  69  95 /  10   5   5   0
Portales........................  67  93  69  96 /   5   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69  91  70  95 /  10  20   5   5
Roswell.........................  70  98  71 101 /   0   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  65  89  66  93 /  10  20   5  30
Elk.............................  62  88  62  92 /  10  20   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205>208-214-215-
226-229.

Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...71