383
FXUS63 KABR 021559 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal for the
weekend and into next week.

- There is a 20-50 percent chance of showers Saturday, otherwise
mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The majority of the forecast for the rest of today remains on
track. Will have to watch warming trends on temperatures this
afternoon in places that are currently overcast. Think with the
help of some late afternoon sunshine, we`ll be ok with the
current Max T`s in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

We`ll see a zonal to northwesterly upper level flow regime for the
next several days, which is a rather more common flow regime for
this time of year. That translates into a mostly dry pattern with
back and forth transitions between modified Pacific to Canadian
airmass. Surface high pressure overhead this morning pushes off to
the east later today, with a tightening pressure gradient and
increased southerly winds across central/north central South Dakota.
RRFS BUFKIT profiles mixed winds top out around 25kts for
Pierre/Mobridge, with the more mixing prone GFS closer to
30kts. Thats about where the NBM tops out.

Warm advection ahead of a northwest flow wave Saturday could support
mid level clouds with some shallow skinny CAPE. NBM POPs are about
20%, however CONSSHORT is closer to 30 to 50% which better aligns
with coverage/intensity of reflectivity depicted by the CAMS.

Surface high pressure moves overhead later Sunday morning, with most
of Saturday night featuring gradient flow thus limiting frost
potential.  For Sundays lows, the 25th-75th range in temperatures
has a relatively low spread at 3 to 6F and bottoms out in the low
40s.

As that high moves off, another tight gradient develops across the
Dakotas, somewhere on the order of 8 to 14mb across the state. NBM
winds are on the order of 25 to 30kts. The front that follows will
likely be dry as the wave and low are well to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions should continue over the next 24 hours. Winds at
or near the surface will be the main concern. Low level wind
shear will develop with winds near 40kts above the surface
around 03-11Z Saturday. The strongest winds this afternoon, with
gusts of 25-30kts over central SD (PIR/MBG) and nearing ABR
tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06