962
FXUS63 KABR 060449
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally patchy frost is a possibility for Monday morning and
  Tuesday morning mainly for north central South Dakota.

- Areas of fog may develop across central South Dakota early Monday
  morning with visibility less than a mile at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

There are some extremely isolated showers showing up on radar,
but the coverage is minimal, and most will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating. We`ll be monitoring for the potential for
stratus clouds or fog over mainly central SD tonight. Confidence
is low on fog development. No significant changes are expected to
the ongoing forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The low pressure system is exiting to the northeast this afternoon
leaving cooler temperatures and diminishing winds behind it.
There are a few northerly flow instability showers this afternoon
across central ND, as well, which may eventually dip into SD.
Expect this activity to dissipate with sunset.

The main forecast challenge now is temperatures for tonight and
Monday night. For tonight, while there are a couple of models, like
the NAM MOS, indicating temps may fall into the mid 30s across north
central SD, most of the guidance keeps lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Leaning toward this solution, not just because it`s in
the majority, but because of the synoptic set up with the high
coming down from the north and shortwave energy in the upper trough.
This is more supportive of fog/stratus development which would
moderate any temperature falls.

There`s more uncertainty regarding Monday night lows. Main
moderating factor for temperatures would be slightly higher winds
with more westerly flow.

Southerly winds increase again midweek ahead of a low pressure
system slated to move through on Thursday. Temperatures climb well
above normal on that warmer southerly flow, as well, with highs in
the 70s the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will remain around 10kts or less through the next 24 hours,
under mainly VFR conditions. While there is a small potential for
fog or low stratus cloud development, confidence remains low and
not included in the forecast at this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06