693
FXUS63 KABR 281933
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
233 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing skies and light winds overnight will bring cold
temperatures with many areas dropping near or below freezing.

- Small chances (20-40%) for light rain Friday night into Saturday,
with amounts generally less than 0.25in.

- Better chances (60-90%) for more widespread/heavier rainfall
Sunday night through Monday night as low pressure moves into the
Plains. Rainfall amounts could exceed 0.50in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Stratus continues to erode from west to east across the CWA this
afternoon, which was well handled by RRFS/REFS low cloud cover
products. These clouds will eventually clear out of the far eastern
CWA by early evening. Frontal boundary is also making quick progress
across the CWA with winds having turning west or northwest for most
areas west of I-29. Showers and thunderstorms have developed out
ahead of the front over the eastern CWA, with cores near 20k ft at
times. Although, better ingredients for strong/severe storms reside
over MN where Marginal/Slight risks are at. High chance PoPs around
60 percent or greater already exist across the eastern CWA from
previous forecast, so no big changes over the eastern areas through
00Z this evening.

For tonight, models continue to clear out the CWA rather nicely,
leaving mostly clear skies and light winds as surface high pressure
settles in. Given what appears to be a pretty good radiational
cooling setup tonight, decided to do a 50/50 NBM/NBM10 blend to
bring in colder-end temperatures. Most areas should be below
freezing tonight, with the James valley getting into the low/mid 20s
under the right conditions. There are a few hi-res models hinting at
fog development late tonight into early Thursday morning in the
James and Big Sioux river valleys. Decided to add this to the
forecast as well given the decent setup for fog.

Next chance for precip looks to be Friday night into Saturday as a
warm front lifts northward through the region. NBM probability for
measurable during this time is generally around 30-50 percent across
the CWA. Inherited NBM PoPs follow this rather closely, but are
closer to 20-40 percent across the area.

It appears better chances for more widespread rainfall occur Sunday
night through Monday night with the arrival of a low pressure
system. Fairly good consistency in the mid-level features amongst
the GEFS/ENS/GEPS with a trough moving across the Northern Plains.
At the surface, low pressure moves eastward into the Central Plains
with an inverted trough poking northward across the Dakotas.
GEPS/ENS are more bullish with QPF, with probability of a half inch
or greater at 50-70 percent. GEFS is drier with the system. As of
now, precip type looks to be all rain with 850mb temps generally +5C
to +9C off the Grand Ensemble.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of -TSRA/TSRA will affect the KATY region at the start
of the TAF period, with brief MVFR VSBY, or even IFR VSBY if a
heavier TSRA were to materialize. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR CIGs are
gradually eroding from west to east and will continue to see
these clouds scatter out through the afternoon, clearing KATY
the latest it appears. Late tonight, patchy FG/BR is possible in
the James/Big Sioux valleys and have inserted TEMPO mention for
this.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT