663
FXUS63 KABR 061225
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is showing up along and north of highway 212 associated with
  the push of colder air, and will continue will migrate eastwards
  across northeast South Dakota this morning through about mid-
  day.

- There is a 40 to 80% chance of precipitation with the system
  today/tonight. This morning we will have scattered/widespread
  showers and drizzle come up into northeast SD, with more
  isolated showers elsewhere. As temperatures cool through the
  day we transition to freezing rain and snow. Precipitation wanes
  this evening.

- Snow accumulations remain fairly light (dusting to about 2-3
  inches), most falling along and east of a line from Pierre to
  Aberdeen. Freezing rain accumulations range from a light glaze
  to about a tenth of an inch across the northeast/western MN.

- Above freezing temperatures Saturday (Highs 40s to mid 50s).
  Highs Sunday 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances increase to 40-70 percent for Monday night
  into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Colder air filtering down out of North Dakota/Canada also comes with
stratus and fog. CAMS show the fog will migrate east and the
continuous check of webcams indicate its relatively transient.
Temperatures upstream are in the teens/20s on a 15 to 25kt wind
while east of the front readings are in the 40s, a stark contrast
for those of us up this early.

Will stick with CAMS for progression of moisture today, which has
backed off on timing a bit compared to the previous forecast. There
has been no freezing drizzle upstream and NAM soundings show about
3kft of saturation, ie the bare minimum, so confidence on drizzle is
low at the time of this writing. Those profiles saturate up, mainly
across the east as the day progresses, meaning a better environment
of drizzle and with temperatures falling to near to below freezing,
possibly freezing drizzle, mainly for the Sisseton hills region.
Across central South Dakota profiles are more indicative of snowfall
with less intermittent saturation in the dendritic growth zone after
00Z. From about 00Z to 09Z is when this systems TROWAL is best
organized. With the shifts in timing, moved the winter weather
advisory for Brown/Spink back in time as we are between the weather
out west and the drizzle potential in the east.

The surge of colder air into the system is short lived, with
850/925mb temperatures rebounding into the single digits above zero
as northwesterly flow shifts to westerly on Saturday, with high
pressure moving out of the central Rockies into the Southern Plains.

On the backside of this high, winds shift to southwesterly, with a
gradient across the region as a clipper low moves across Canada
Sunday. The core of mildest air moves overhead early Sunday morning,
with a backdoor front that might clip the far northeast and west
central Minnesota. We get another surge of mild air late Sunday with
850mb temperatures increasing to +10 to +14C, about a standard
deviation above climatology. This is punctuated by another strong
cold front associated with a clipper moving across North Dakota, and
by mid-day Monday 850mb temperatures are down to the single digits
either side of zero. We are then stuck in this cold airmass Tuesday
and Wednesday.

As for moisture, next chance outside of the near term system is for
late Monday/Tuesday timeframe with a shallow wave embedded within
strong westerlies. The arctic boundary provides the focus for a band
of precipitation, though at this timescale determinsitic
models/ensembles have wildly variable placement and temperatures. As
such, NBM has a wide range in the 25th-75th ranges in snowfall (0-5
inches).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The cold front has moved east of ABR and is now nearing ATY, with
winds shifting out of the north by 13Z. Fog has been common near
and just ahead of the front, with improving conditions
(visibility around 4SM or greater behind the front). IFR
conditions will remain common at ATY through around 09Z Saturday.
Light snow will be the main weather type for PIR/MBG, with a
wintry mix most likely at ATY. VFR conditions will return as early
as 22Z today at MBG, around 08Z Saturday at PIR/ABR, and after
12Z at ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for SDZ008-020>023.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for SDZ006-
     018.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CST
     Saturday for SDZ006-007-011-018-019.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06