070
FXUS63 KABR 031012
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
412 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog across central SD today, although widespread low
  visibility (one-quarter mile or less) not expected at this time.

- Mixed precipitation (including light freezing rain) possible
  (20- 30% chance) across far northeast SD and west central MN on
  Sunday.

- Temperatures Sunday and for much of next week will be 10 to 20
  degrees above normal with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 411 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Still an abundance of stratus across the region, with reinforcements
moving south out of ND. A run through obs and web cams show fog is
much more spotty compared to 24 hours ago and will maintain patchy
fog mention in the grids (mainly central SD) through the morning
hours. Will also keep an eye out for patches of freezing drizzle as
soundings are somewhat supportive of this, but don`t really see any
evidence of this as of yet. Flurries may be possible yet this
morning as well and will keep an eye out for this.

Much of the day looks to be void of precipitation, but patchy fog
may linger across central SD. Clouds will be stubborn to leave today
and expecting mostly cloudy/cloudy skies for much of the area.

On Sunday, weak low pressure will move east across the area as
southerly winds increase late tonight and into the day. Increasing
low-level warm air advection is also noted as 925mb temps rise into
the single digits above zero C. In fact, southern SD may even see
+10C to +15C temps at 925mb. Current highs on Sunday range from the
30s north, to the 40s and 50s over the southern CWA, but a lot of
this will depend on the amount of cloud cover present, which is a
bit uncertain at this time. HRRR low-level cloud cover product
suggests appreciable clearing from west to east during the day
Sunday. Models are also suggesting potential for light mixed
precipitation across the eastern CWA within the warm air advection
regime ahead of the low pressure. Inserted 20-30% chances for this,
with light icing possible in light freezing rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 411 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Will the low stratus and fog be clear by the time we get into next
week? The upper pattern features a broad ridge overhead Monday, with
split flow developing. The northern stream features a weak trough
passage Tuesday, with a cut off low developing off the coast of
California. This leaves us with a weak surface pressure pattern,
which would give us little impetus to clear out the low level
moisture. 850mb temperatures increase to 6 to 9 degrees C, falling
just shy of 2 standard deviations above climo. At its warmest,
Monday morning, the peek of the inversion features temperatures of
about 45 degrees F at 2kft. The warm air aloft is a double edged
sword however, with NAM BUFKIT profiles showing a strong inversion
for most of the week. Its important to note this this depiction is
much shallower in comparison to the ongoing fog/stratus event. That
means that if we do develop or retain fog/stratus going into next
week, it can be expected to stubbornly persist, but there is a good
indication that its not quite as favorable an environment moving
forward.

Thus, NBM temperatures (highs and lows) runs about 15 to 25 degrees
above normal with lows as mild as 30 degrees above climo (30s and
40s for highs and low 20s for lows).

In regards to the wave Tuesday, as is fairly typical for these weak
systems coming across from the Pacific, NAM BUFKIT profiles depict
weak ascent and moisture above a dry/mild layer. By the time we get
to saturation, lift is lost. Thus, very light overall moisture,
probably locally just a few hundreds with little more than a T for
most of the forecast area. The only caveat is that timing would have
this move through evening/early overnight with near freezing surface
temperatures, meaning the potential for light ice and travel
headaches. Too far out to nail down locations for specifics and thus
any headlines will have to wait.

The one thing to note is an upcoming longwave trough
developing/strengthening for late in the week/next weekend. That
would be a favorable setup for a Colorado/Southern Plains low but
we`re well to far out for any level of detail and if the pattern
that sets up this week is any analog, low passage will possibly be
well to the east and south and the system would pass a by without
impact. This is all speculative at this point anyway.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR stratus with some pockets of VFR continues to
stream over the region. Also added in a fog mention at KMBG for
Saturday morning. Confidence is low in any improvement to VFR,
though KPIR and KATY may break out on Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...20