755
FXUS63 KABR 051730
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a few isolated to
scattered severe storms to develop over portions of northeastern
South Dakota into western Minnesota this afternoon through the early
evening. An isolated storm or two could produce hail an inch or more
in diameter and wind gust up to 60 mph at times.

- Strong winds will be possible Saturday and Sunday over mainly
north central South Dakota, with southerly sustained winds up to 30
mph and gusts up to 45 mph.

- A lull in precipitation expected through Sunday with the return of
shower and thunderstorms Sunday night and periodically through next
week.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the 90s
this weekend, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An uppper-level shortwave will be moving over central and
northeastern SD through the day. This shortwave will help to give
some forcing during the afternoon to help some isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop. Models show MLCAPE values up around
1000 J/kg during the afternoon over northeastern SD, which will help
with some storm development. With northwest flow cooling the mid
levels a bit, mid-level lapse rates will get up around 6.5 C/km.
This will help with hail growth in the storms leading to hail an
inch or more in diameter possible. Additionally, DCAPE values up
around 800 J/kg could get some stronger winds to the surface if a
storm were to form and collapse fairly quickly. There is a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms to develop and produce 1
inch or greater hail and occasional wind gusts up to 60 mph. These
storms will likely dissipate around sunset. Otherwise, high pressure
will start to move into central SD and will help to keep rain and
storms from developing in that area.

As a week upper-level ridge moves over SD tonight, the high surface
pressure will move east overnight and settle over MN/WI during the
weekend. This will help to give central and northeastern SD a break
from showers and storms through most of the weekend. At the same
time, lower surface pressure will be developing over the Rockies.
This low pressure to the west and the high pressure to the east will
sandwich SD causing a tight pressure gradient over the state. This
will push strong southerly winds over SD Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday`s winds look to be strongest over areas west of the
Missouri River, with 60-90% chance of sustained winds greater than
30 mph (mainly in north central SD) and 50-80% chance for wind gusts
greater than 45 mph. The winds spread east Sunday, with 50-90%
chance for sustained winds greater than 30 mph and 30-60% chance for
wind gusts greater than 45 mph over north central SD. Some areas of
central and north central SD could reach wind advisory criteria and
this will need to be watched over the next couple model runs. These
southerly winds will be pushing warm air into SD, causing
temperatures to warm 10-15 and 15-20 degrees above normal Saturday
and Sunday respectfully. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
low 90s Saturday and upper 80s to upper 90s Sunday.

A cold front over MT/WY will be moving its way east through the day
Sunday, with it reaching central SD Sunday evening and northeastern
SD during the overnight hours into Monday morning. This cold front
will help showers and storms to develop Sunday evening overnight.
Currently, the SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms to develop in areas west of the James River Valley. Behind
the cold front that moves through, temperatures look to cool
slightly Monday, with high in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A warm front
will then move in Tuesday and will help to warm temperatures back
into the upper 80s to mid 90s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and Saturday.
However, there is a chance for some isolated to scattered showers
and storms to develop near KABR and KATY that could reduce
conditions for a little bit this afternoon into the early evening.
Northwesterly winds will calm slightly and turn overnight to become
southeasterly. The winds will start to increase through the day
Saturday, with gusts of up to 30-40 mph possible at KMBG and KPIR
and 20-25 mph at KABR and KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12